Yerdon's suggestions for forwards for the Sabres

[dudacek]

The team can’t afford to count on either Cozens or Mitts to be a regular next year.

But if Mitts isnt an NHL regular next year, I think you safely discount him from ever becoming a real 2C.

Things aren’t as do-or-die for Cozens, but I suspect most of the good 2Cs around the league were in the NHL at 19.

[DarthEbriate]

26 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

My hope is Jack, 2C, Cozens/Mitts, Larry, Lazar.  I know people keep says no to either Mitts or Cozens as the 3C, but at some point these kids are going to have to play and contribute for this rebuild to work long-term.  If we get a decent 2C, then I think we are safe to try the kids in a backup scoring role.  

What is nice with Kahun, Larry, Lazar and Asplund we'd have depth in case one or both of the kids still aren't ready.  Personally, I think Cozens, like Reinhart was also, is ready to step in and be at 40 pt player in 3rd line center role.  

Agreed -- it's all contingent on the 2C. And ideally for me, that's a guy coming off an injury or trying to redeem a legacy on a 2-year prove it deal that's cost-effective and easily moved or handed to Seattle because one of the kids takes over. The wildcard is Kahun who could be C and W on the 2nd next year, though probably ideally a 3C. I still hope the GLO sticks together and can be the ES 3rd line that can take over a game here and there. Then, we could do a 4th line of any of Asplund/Lazar/Cozens (or even Mitts but I think he needs that full season in Rochester). And I'm good with Cozens starting as a winger a la rookie-Roy.

One note -- Reinhart wasn't ready to step in as a center and get 40. His rookie year he had the 9-game tryout and wasn't ready. And despite a few attempts at C, his first full season he was almost exclusively on ROR's or Eichel's wing.

[Weave]

16 minutes ago, dudacek said:

The team can’t afford to count on either Cozens or Mitts to be a regular next year.

This is the bottom line for me.  If one of them is ready, awesome.  But the team would be rolling the dice yet again to count on it.  I’m not in the mood for another dice roll.

[Randall Flagg]

35 minutes ago, Weave said:

This is the bottom line for me.  If one of them is ready, awesome.  But the team would be rolling the dice yet again to count on it.  I’m not in the mood for another dice roll.

Wait, you aren't interested in a fourth straight year of "we're in games" and "we hope to play meaningful games down the stretch" meaning hoping to be within ten points in February, and assertions that it's all a growth process being used to describe the fact that we suck because we don't have enough NHL capable players, ignoring the fact that many of those players simply won't ever get there?

[nfreeman]

2 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

My hope is Jack, 2C, Cozens/Mitts, Larry, Lazar.  I know people keep says no to either Mitts or Cozens as the 3C, but at some point these kids are going to have to play and contribute for this rebuild to work long-term.  If we get a decent 2C, then I think we are safe to try the kids in a backup scoring role.  

What is nice with Kahun, Larry, Lazar and Asplund we'd have depth in case one or both of the kids still aren't ready.  Personally, I think Cozens, like Reinhart was also, is ready to step in and be at 40 pt player in 3rd line center role.  

I'll say it:  there is NFW that Mitts will be good enough to be a decent 3C next year. 

That leaves Cozens, and if JB's "plan" is for a rookie to be the 3C, then IMHO that's yet another indicator of JB's incompetence.

[GASabresIUFAN]

On 4/3/2020 at 2:27 PM, nfreeman said:

I'll say it:  there is NFW that Mitts will be good enough to be a decent 3C next year. 

That leaves Cozens, and if JB's "plan" is for a rookie to be the 3C, then IMHO that's yet another indicator of JB's incompetence.

I've got news for you, the kids have to play in the NHL because it's the only way teams stay cap compliant.  Reinhart, Ullmark, Kahun, Montour and VO will be getting significant contracts this summer.  My guess is Reinhart gets 7 per season and other guys range from 3-4.5.  That's about 23 mill in contracts.  Now add that to 46 mill in existing contracts and you have 69 mill invested in 14 players (including 7 F, 6D & 1G - I've demoted Hutton for this example).   That leaves about 11-12 mill for 8 players.  Pilut and Lazar will be cheap to retain, so your now at 71 mill for 16 players, but you still have to get your 2C, 3C, 4C (if you let Larsson walk), 3 RW and 4 LW.  

We inserted two rookies in the lineup last season and both paid immediate dividends in VO and Jokiharju.  To complete this roster, stay cap compliant and improve long-term a couple of kids will need to make this roster and produce.  

This isn't incompetence, but the way to manage in today's NHL like it or not.  You simply can't expect teams to complete rosters with only veteran players.

Jbot has to get a 2C and if he can trade cap for cap to get it done so much the better (such as Risto for a 2C).  That could free up funds to get a Toffoli.  That would also leave enough money to get a good backup goalie. 

The roster would look something like this

Skinner, Jack, Reinhart  (line cost -26 mill)

VO Henrique (for example) Toffoli (15 mill)

MoJo Cozens/Mitts Kahun (10 mIll)

Asplund Lazar KO (8 mill)

Thompson (1 mil)

Dahlin Jokiharju (2 mill plus bonuses)

McCabe Montour (6.4 mill)

Pilut Miller (4.8 mill)

Borgen (800k)

Ullmark Talbot (for example)  (6 mill)

 

Edited April 4, 2020 by GASabresIUFAN

[Randall Flagg]

9 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

I've got news for you, the kids have to play in the NHL because it's the only way teams stay cap compliant.  Reinhart, Ullmark, Kahun, Montour and VO will be getting significant contracts this summer.  My guess is Reinhart gets 7 per season and other guys range from 3-4.5.  That's about 23 mill in contracts.  Now add that to 46 mill in existing contracts and you have 69 mill invested in 14 players (including 7 F, 6D & 1G - I've demoted Hutton for this example).   That leaves about 11-12 mill for 8 players.  Pilut and Lazar will be cheap to retain, so your now at 71 mill for 16 players, but you still have to get your 2C, 3C, 4C (if you let Larsson walk), 3 RW and 4 LW.  

We inserted two rookies in the lineup last season and both paid immediate dividends in VO and Jokiharju.  To complete this roster, stay cap compliant and improve long-term a couple of kids will need to make this roster and produce.  

This isn't incompetence, but the way to manage in today's NHL like it or not.  You simply can't expect teams to complete rosters with only veteran players.

You can, however, expect better at center than Eichs-rookie-questionmark-Lazar.

[GASabresIUFAN]

7 minutes ago, Randall Flagg said:

You can, however, expect better at center than Eichs-rookie-questionmark-Lazar.

Absolutely.  I never said put both Mitts and Cozens at center next year and pray.  I said go out and get a legit 2C and then let Cozens and Mitts fight it out for the 3C role. 

In my game plan illustrated above, I think Jbot forward acquisitions should be a 2C plus a winger like Toffoli even if that means losing Larsson.

A top nine of Jack, Sam, Skinner, VO, MoJo, Kahun, Toffoli, Henrique and Cozens/Mitts would make a very talented and formidable group.

Edited April 3, 2020 by GASabresIUFAN

[nfreeman]

@GASabresIUFAN -- you are right that competent roster construction includes cheap kids playing important roles.  However, I think it is pretty close to definite that Mitts will not be capable next year of filling even a marginal NHL role.  And while I can see Cozens stepping up and filling the 3C role, it would be foolish to assume that he will be able to do so.  It is on JB to solve that problem.

[dudacek]

45 minutes ago, nfreeman said:

@GASabresIUFAN -- you are right that competent roster construction includes cheap kids playing important roles.  However, I think it is pretty close to definite that Mitts will not be capable next year of filling even a marginal NHL role.  And while I can see Cozens stepping up and filling the 3C role, it would be foolish to assume that he will be able to do so.  It is on JB to solve that problem.

While I have no expectations of him being “good,” I fully expect Mitts to be capable of filling at least a marginal NHL role next year.

Casey finished his Sabres stint with 2 points and a -11 in 21 games and those totals reflect his play over that stint. But it would be a mistake to think that defines who Casey is, or who he will be by the time next fall rolls around.

A little over a year ago, Conor Sheary had a stint where he scored 3 goals in 40 games. It was in the midst of a 14-goal, 34-point season, and a Stanley Cup contender thought he was worth trading a good young player for. Jeff Skinner finished last season on a run of 5 points, -20 in 29 games. Most of expect him to be a top 6 contributor. My point is, that while we need to be aware of a player’s floor, it shouldn’t be what defines him.

We might have a more accurate portrait of Casey as the very raw kid who put up 37 points in 93 NHL games before his 21st birthday then got sent down to regain his confidence and fix the holes in his game, and cross our fingers that his stint in the Amerks helped.

I am comfortable with Casey pencilled in as replacement for one Rodrigues/Sheary/Vesey/Frolik on the 3rd tier of Sabres forwards, so long as we acquire better players to populate the barren second tier.

[Weave]

I'm more with Freeman than with dudacek here.  I'd be very surprised (pleasantly) if Casey were a competent NHLer next season.  I would not agree with any plan that didn't have Casey as the plan "B" for whatever role on the team.

I think you need to plan for his not making it and adjust if he surprises you, as opposed to planning he makes it and adjusting if he doesn't.  Cuz I think the odds are he's not made it yet at the start of the season.

[nfreeman]

@dudacek -- I appreciate your optimism, but I saw absolutely nothing from Mitts this year to indicate that he will be capable of doing anything more at the NHL level than taking up a roster spot and turning the puck over whenever he gets it.  I assume you are expecting more like an 11- to 13-minute guy who can play on the 2nd PP and accumulate, say, 12-18-30.

(Admittedly I have no knowledge of Mitts' AHL games this year other than his so-so stats and the lukewarm-to-negative reviews posted by Sabrespacers who saw him play.)

As I've said previously, I do not want to see him in a Sabres uniform unless and until he goes on a 30-odd game stretch in the AHL in which he is absolutely tearing it up.

[Thorny]

We are talking about Casey's NHL readiness for next season. His likelihood of even being ready to be a base-level NHL player. 

Botterill had Casey and Berglund as his SECOND C and THIRD C heading into a season TWO YEARS before that. 

Let that sink in.

Edited April 3, 2020 by Thorny

[dudacek]

2 hours ago, nfreeman said:

@dudacek -- I appreciate your optimism, but I saw absolutely nothing from Mitts this year to indicate that he will be capable of doing anything more at the NHL level than taking up a roster spot and turning the puck over whenever he gets it.  I assume you are expecting more like an 11- to 13-minute guy who can play on the 2nd PP and accumulate, say, 12-18-30.

(Admittedly I have no knowledge of Mitts' AHL games this year other than his so-so stats and the lukewarm-to-negative reviews posted by Sabrespacers who saw him play.)

As I've said previously, I do not want to see him in a Sabres uniform unless and until he goes on a 30-odd game stretch in the AHL in which he is absolutely tearing it up.

If I had to make a prediction for him, that would be it. I hope he can do more than Sheary did with Sheary’s ice time. He’s better than Sheary. I know Ogre and Inky we frustrated by his continued turnovers with Amerks and I don’t expect them to go away; that’s his game. I do hope they happen less often and they are balanced by more skill plays.

And the skill plays did start to come with the Amerks. I didn’t watch many games, but they were there in the highlights.

How do you define tearing it up and why do you think that’s necessary for 30 games?

In his last 30 games he had 9 goals and 14 assists.

 

[Randall Flagg]

1 hour ago, dudacek said:

If I had to make a prediction for him, that would be it. I hope he can do more than Sheary did with Sheary’s ice time. He’s better than Sheary. I know Ogre and Inky we frustrated by his continued turnovers with Amerks and I don’t expect them to go away; that’s his game. I do hope they happen less often and they are balanced by more skill plays.

And the skill plays did start to come with the Amerks. I didn’t watch many games, but they were there in the highlights.

How do you define tearing it up and why do you think that’s necessary for 30 games?

In his last 30 games he had 9 goals and 14 assists.

 

They're probably looking for that feeling Olofsson gave us - "yeah, that guy is going to make the team, and he's going to be pretty good."

[GASabresIUFAN]

2 minutes ago, Randall Flagg said:

They're probably looking for that feeling Olofsson gave us - "yeah, that guy is going to make the team, and he's going to be pretty good."

But that isn’t always how it works.  Take Thompson vs Jokiharju.  Both played 1/2 a season in the NHL before coming to us.  One jumped right in and was very good and the other failed. Prospects and their development isn’t linear.  VO was also 24.  There are no guarantees.  

[Pimlach]

On 4/1/2020 at 8:44 AM, shrader said:

Buffalo has always been in the bottom of those polls.  It has nothing to do with Botterill, Pegula, or anyone else in the organization.  As long as those polls are being conducted, Buffalo will always be at the bottom.  Death, taxes, and ripping on Buffalo.

There was a time when it was not on the bottom.  On the contrary, it was a desired place, especially for Canadians from Ontario and Quebec  

Just start winning and good players will want to go there . 

 

[sabremike]

18 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

But that isn’t always how it works.  Take Thompson vs Jokiharju.  Both played 1/2 a season in the NHL before coming to us.  One jumped right in and was very good and the other failed. Prospects and their development isn’t linear.  VO was also 24.  There are no guarantees.  

As the biggest Tage fan on this board I have to point out that the Blues called him up because injuries gave them no other choice and he was so clearly not an NHL player they had to eventually send him down anyways. And then when he came to Buffalo he was also dealing with the additional stress of having just lost his cushy gig as the Toys R Us mascot.

[Randall Flagg]

21 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

But that isn’t always how it works.  Take Thompson vs Jokiharju.  Both played 1/2 a season in the NHL before coming to us.  One jumped right in and was very good and the other failed. Prospects and their development isn’t linear.  VO was also 24.  There are no guarantees.  

The only reason I bring up Olofsson was to illustrate an example of the kind of situation I picture nfreeman feeling comfortable writi Casey in for - when on-ice evidence has compiled to a degree where damn near everybody is confident the player will be a real asset to the team right now.

 

Given how our flame outs with Casey have harmed both Casey and the Sabres, it will absolutely take this evidence in real games for people to be comfortable with designing the roster by handing Casey a spot.

[GASabresIUFAN]

1 minute ago, Randall Flagg said:

The only reason I bring up Olofsson was to illustrate an example of the kind of situation I picture nfreeman feeling comfortable writi Casey in for - when on-ice evidence has compiled to a degree where damn near everybody is confident the player will be a real asset to the team right now.

 

Given how our flame outs with Casey have harmed both Casey and the Sabres, it will absolutely take this evidence in real games for people to be comfortable with designing the roster by handing Casey a spot.

It makes sense that people feel a little burned by the initial failure of some of our prospects like Casey and Nylander, but I think this is more our fault then theirs.  

I went and looked at the last 10 7th overall picks: Hughes, Andersson, Keller, Provorov, Dumba, Fleury, Nurse, Schiefele, Skinner and Kadri.  Pretty good list of players.  Besides Andersson, who actually made his NHL draft year, most of these guys, like Cozens, needed a year to make the NHL.  Skinner scored 30 his draft year.  Hughes (53 pts), Provorov (30 pts) and Keller (65 pts) made the NHL in D+1 without ever playing a minute in the AHL. Schiefele (35 pts) made the NHL in his D+1 season but played 10 AHL playoff games his draft year. Kadri split his D+1 between the AHL and NHL.  D-men Nurse, Fleury and Dumba all made the NHL in their D+2 years.  This list gave me great hope that Cozens will make the Sabres next fall.  While not Keller, I think he’d produce as least as well as Schiefele did in his debut season. 

 

[freester]

3 hours ago, dudacek said:

If I had to make a prediction for him, that would be it. I hope he can do more than Sheary did with Sheary’s ice time. He’s better than Sheary. I know Ogre and Inky we frustrated by his continued turnovers with Amerks and I don’t expect them to go away; that’s his game. I do hope they happen less often and they are balanced by more skill plays.

And the skill plays did start to come with the Amerks. I didn’t watch many games, but they were there in the highlights.

How do you define tearing it up and why do you think that’s necessary for 30 games?

In his last 30 games he had 9 goals and 14 assists.

 

No evidence whatsoever that he is better than Sheary. Mitts is slower and more turnover prone. At this point he is no better and possibly worse than Alex Nylander. 

[dudacek]

38 minutes ago, freester said:

No evidence whatsoever that he is better than Sheary. Mitts is slower and more turnover prone. At this point he is no better and possibly worse than Alex Nylander. 

Mitts might be slower, but speed is all Sheary has in him, in terms of tools. 

Mitts sure can stay on his feet better. And his hands are far better.

Alex Nylander is also more skilled than Sheary.

[dudacek]

17 minutes ago, Randall Flagg said:

The only reason I bring up Olofsson was to illustrate an example of the kind of situation I picture nfreeman feeling comfortable writi Casey in for - when on-ice evidence has compiled to a degree where damn near everybody is confident the player will be a real asset to the team right now.

 

Given how our flame outs with Casey have harmed both Casey and the Sabres, it will absolutely take this evidence in real games for people to be comfortable with designing the roster by handing Casey a spot.

I wouldn't ink Casey into the roster, I would design a roster where Casey, Tage, Cozens, Asplund and Lazar are competing for two or three spots in the final 13 or 14.

 

[Randall Flagg]

1 hour ago, dudacek said:

I wouldn't ink Casey into the roster, I would design a roster where Casey, Tage, Cozens, Asplund and Lazar are competing for two or three spots in the final 13 or 14.

 

I think this 

-encourages the type of camp competition Botterill has long been after

-wouldn't harm the team in a big way if the worst case scenario happened and all struggled

-is in line with GA's point about being unable to build the perfect roster with only established NHLers

[GASabresIUFAN]

On 4/3/2020 at 12:40 PM, dudacek said:

The team can’t afford to count on either Cozens or Mitts to be a regular next year.

But if Mitts isnt an NHL regular next year, I think you safely discount him from ever becoming a real 2C.

Things aren’t as do-or-die for Cozens, but I suspect most of the good 2Cs around the league were in the NHL at 19.

 

17 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

 

I went and looked at the last 10 7th overall picks: Hughes, Andersson, Keller, Provorov, Dumba, Fleury, Nurse, Schiefele, Skinner and Kadri.  Pretty good list of players.  Besides Andersson, who actually made his NHL draft year, most of these guys, like Cozens, needed a year to make the NHL.  Skinner scored 30 his draft year.  Hughes (53 pts), Provorov (30 pts) and Keller (65 pts) made the NHL in D+1 without ever playing a minute in the AHL. Schiefele (35 pts) made the NHL in his D+1 season but played 10 AHL playoff games his draft year. Kadri split his D+1 between the AHL and NHL.  D-men Nurse, Fleury and Dumba all made the NHL in their D+2 years.  This list gave me great hope that Cozens will make the Sabres next fall.  While not Keller, I think he’d produce as least as well as Schiefele did in his debut season. 

 

Yes they were.