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UFA and Cap space


LGR4GM

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13 minutes ago, Weave said:

Maybe over stated a bit, but yeah, the appearance is certainly there that they aren’t willing to spend lime when they first arrived.

 

The last several posts has me pondering the future.  What will the cap look like in the next few years should we see a serious recession evolve out of this Covid mess?

I think the cap will decrease from its current value. The Skinner contract will be a huge burden on the next GM. 

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1 hour ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Lower revenues this year means a lower cap next season.  Each year the cap for next season is based on the prior year's revenue (ranging from 50% to 57% of the league revenue - the biggest the revenue the higher the player's share)  Obviously revenue is going to fall this season significantly.  This likely means a corresponding drop in the salary cap.  It's in the interest of both parties to make a temporary agreement for 2020-21 to avoid a huge drop in the cap.  I can see an agreement where the cap falls to 78 mill with each team getting one buyout. 

 

When they have a strong suspicion league revenues won't be similar from 1 season to the next, they can and do use a different growth factor than the process you describe.   Typically that comes into play with a new TV contract.  But pretty sure a 1 time wiping out of ~17% of a season and the entirety of the playoffs would fit that bill.

They aren't going to adjust the cap downward 20%+ UNLESS they anticipate NEXT Seasons revenues will be down ~20%+ from this season's most recent pre-shutdown projections.

If they somehow miraculously got almost all of this years games in (they won't, but for sake of argument, if they were to) then next years cap would likely actually go up ~5% over this 1 like it typically does.

My guess is, they lower the cap about 1/4 of what they expect 50% of true HRR to be when all is finally said and done in '20-'21 & warn the players that escrow will be larger than usual & not to anticipate getting any of it at the end of the season.  But that things will be back to normal in '21-'22.  This will minimize disruption to rosters due to team payrolls being too high.  And will trace back to history in that when coming out of lockouts, revenues have never been as low as teams / players feared; they might be able to make a legit case that revenues won't drop as much as initially expected / feared once again.

And not sure what you mean by the players get a sliding scale of revenue.  That was how the '05 CBA worked (players got 55-57% of revenue depending upon how big the pie was).  Since the new CBA went into effect, players get exactly 50% of defined HRR regardless of how big that pie is.

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2 hours ago, Taro T said:

Because they are so close to the CBA expiring, would expect them to both default into distrust mode, but maybe this crisis has them seeing they're actually in this together.  Could see the players going for it if the compliance bought out players get their full salary and they don't count against the players' share of HRR.  The other wildcard in all this is that small revenue teams like Arizona and Florida would likely oppose it.  Arizona could be in great shape if the cap goes down; they'd have no incentive to help big payroll teams out of a jam.

 

 

I'm not sure Arizona is in 'great' shape if the Cap does not move.   They have $75M committed with only 9 Forwards signed.    Not much you can get with $6M or about $1.5/player.    Unless they offload other players they haven't the space to sign Hall.  The shortened season might close the book on that trade as a swing and a miss.   The Yotes are 5th from the bottom in the West, and will be in the lottery.  So unless they win the lottery, they will be sending a  high 1st round draft pick this year along with their 2021 3rd to NJ for what?  Not including their prospects that were included. 

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5 minutes ago, Broken Ankles said:

I'm not sure Arizona is in 'great' shape if the Cap does not move.   They have $75M committed with only 9 Forwards signed.    Not much you can get with $6M or about $1.5/player.    Unless they offload other players they haven't the space to sign Hall.  The shortened season might close the book on that trade as a swing and a miss.   The Yotes are 5th from the bottom in the West, and will be in the lottery.  So unless they win the lottery, they will be sending a  high 1st round draft pick this year along with their 2021 3rd to NJ for what?  Not including their prospects that were included. 

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Good catch.  Was going off Arizona historically being at the extreme low end of the salary cap.  Wouldn't be surprised if Florida w/ $10MM tied up in their starter aren't at the bottom anymore either.

No idea who, other than the Otters, are likely serious low budget teams.

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On 3/30/2020 at 12:13 PM, Zamboni said:

Someone who is on the downside of his career but is still productive enough to be a good short term 2C. He’s played both C and RW. Better than any center the Sabres have besides Eichel. That could then allow Cozens and Mitts to develop in a better environment. And I don’t think he’d cost a ton in assets. Brian Little.

 

I'd like to see the Jets move Bryan Little onto a third line of Harkins Little Roslovic after they trade for Cirelli from TB.

I'm not sure what TB is going to do even if the cap goes up a bit. They're at the limit as it is. They are going to lose some players because of the cap. Too many of their players have NMCs if you ask me.

Cirelli might be the best center out there that not many are talking about. I'd give up a 1st, Lowry or Copp (their choice) and Niku for Cirelli. He has good defensive smarts, he is an RFA with no arbitration rights (Chevy's favorite) coming off of his ELC and is unsigned. He could probably be had in an offer sheet but I can't see too many teams doing that. I'd love to see Chevy trade for him and get him in a Jets uniform as I think he is on the verge of breaking out and becoming a star.

Edited by Ducky
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13 hours ago, Ducky said:

I'd like to see the Jets move Bryan Little onto a third line of Harkins Little Roslovic after they trade for Cirelli from TB.

I'm not sure what TB is going to do even if the cap goes up a bit. They're at the limit as it is. They are going to lose some players because of the cap. Too many of their players have NMCs if you ask me.

Cirelli might be the best center out there that not many are talking about. I'd give up a 1st, Lowry or Copp (their choice) and Niku for Cirelli. He has good defensive smarts, he is an RFA with no arbitration rights (Chevy's favorite) coming off of his ELC and is unsigned. He could probably be had in an offer sheet but I can't see too many teams doing that. I'd love to see Chevy trade for him and get him in a Jets uniform as I think he is on the verge of breaking out and becoming a star.

There is zero percent chance Cirelli goes to the Peg.  The primary reason is you have no Cap space to support this.  Assuming the Cap stays at $81m, Your team has $7.5 to sign 4 Forwards, 3 D and a backup Goalie.   Newsflash.  Cirelli’s AAV will be north of $7m by itself.  Secondarily, they have $10.5 committed to the Blue line.  It’s more probable than not you actually trade a current forward to beef up it rather than add to the forward ranks.  Third, Winnipeg has an abundance at Center already.   Adding Cirelli to the Peg and ignoring other holes would be the equivalent of the NY Yankees forgoing a pitcher acquisition to get a DH to add more home runs to its line up.   Lastly, your package for trade is light.   None of those players are grade A and your 1st round pick is too low.   You haven’t the assets to move the needle.  

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On 3/30/2020 at 12:17 PM, Weave said:

Regarding cap space..... I’m starting to get a feeling that we may become an internal cap team in the near future.  Just a feeling, fwiw.

Which may reinforce the idea that trade is the most likely route to a 2C.  Well, or a plan involving Kahun.

This. Botterill's plan for 2C is Cozens/Mittelstadt/Kahun. 

Mark my words. Book mark this post, whatever. I'll eat my hat if he adds a legit 2C. 

Also, rest assured, if his plan was "cAp sPaCe oFfSeAsOn", he'll have bumped it back to NEXT off-season by now as the extenuating circumstances have allowed. 

Edited by Thorny
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On 3/30/2020 at 1:26 PM, DarthEbriate said:

This is where it would have been nice to keep our 3rd round pick. Having the option to offer sheet an RFA C anywhere from 4.2M-8.4M could have given us more flexibility.

I'd rather have Vesey! 

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36 minutes ago, Thorny said:

This. Botterill's plan for 2C is Cozens/Mittelstadt/Kahun. 

Mark my words. Book mark this post, whatever. I'll eat my hat if he adds a legit 2C. 

Also, rest assured, if his plan was "cAp sPaCe oFfSeAsOn", he'll have bumped it back to NEXT off-season by now as the extenuating circumstances have allowed. 

If he does go that direction, he'll have moved one more person off the fence and into the 'can his arse right now` camp.

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8 minutes ago, Taro T said:

If he does go that direction, he'll have moved one more person off the fence and into the 'can his arse right now` camp.

For whatever reason, he's painfully blind to the idea we need another big-time C. How many centres has the guy added in 3 years? Is Lazar the best C he's added? He just doesn't get it- that's why I say it won't happen, it's firmly in the "have to see it to believe it" category. The man entered into the 18-19 season with Berglund as his second best C, and he probably thought it was Mittelstadt. 

It's not even truly about trading ROR, it's that he legitimately thought we didn't need to fill the hole. Don't know him personally. But he's an team-building idiot. The writing is already on the wall with all the organization's "We expect Kahun to be a long-term centre" comments just before the shut down. 

Those were well placed comments, and they were setting the expectation. All the comments about how he expected more goals from Vesey, Sheary, Johansson, blah blah. He doesn't think we need a C to maximize Skinner, he expects our wingers to score at their career high, every year, and elevate the centres. 

He gave Skinner 9 million expecting he'd elevate a non 2C into being a 2C. That was the plan - he fired his bullet. He's going to ask him to do it again. 

Edited by Thorny
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1 minute ago, Thorny said:

For whatever reason, he's painfully blind to the idea we need another big-time C. How many centres has the guy added in 3 years? Is Lazar the best C he's added? He just doesn't get it- that's why I say it won't happen, it's firmly in the "have to see it to believe it" category. The man entered into the 18-19 season with Berglund as his second best C, and he probably thought it was Mittelstadt. 

It's not even truly about trading ROR, it's that he legitimately thought we didn't need to fill the hole. Don't know him personally. But he's an team-building idiot.

Actually, WE all thought the 2nd best C heading into '18-'19 was Berglund, and it's possible that Botterill expected Mittelstadt to take that role by late in the season.  But it turns out, the best 2C they put out there was Rodrigues.  (Larsson was firmly entrenched as the 4C, so whether he was better than E-Rod or not, it's moot.  He never was the 2C (for more than a game of 2 at any rate).)

Before he walked away, Berglund had been firmly buried into the rotating 4th line winger merry go round.  He wasn't the 2C long at all.

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10 minutes ago, Taro T said:

Actually, WE all thought the 2nd best C heading into '18-'19 was Berglund, and it's possible that Botterill expected Mittelstadt to take that role by late in the season.  But it turns out, the best 2C they put out there was Rodrigues.  (Larsson was firmly entrenched as the 4C, so whether he was better than E-Rod or not, it's moot.  He never was the 2C (for more than a game of 2 at any rate).)

Before he walked away, Berglund had been firmly buried into the rotating 4th line winger merry go round.  He wasn't the 2C long at all.

Agree with all that but it doesn't make my point any less accurate. 

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1 hour ago, Thorny said:

I'd rather have Vesey! 

If Vesey is all that you love, then that's what you'll receive.

1 hour ago, Thorny said:

This. Botterill's plan for 2C is Cozens/Mittelstadt/Kahun. 

Mark my words. Book mark this post, whatever. I'll eat my hat if he adds a legit 2C.

This is the scary part -- as well as your other post as well. 4 games-played Mitts, washed-up Berglund, Rodrigues, even Sobotka did some center in STL at times. Then Johansson and Lazar. All since dumping ROR. Now it's Kahun who was relegated to wing (albeit because Malkin). JBot is looking for someone to step up into the 2C and 3C role, rather than finding someone who has proven capable to do it. This is very, very risky. I hope it works for us. I don't think it'll work for JBot. I hope Kahun crushes it though. Then Cozens takes over and crushes further. That would be nice.

And JBot should know better! His Pens team that won the Cup and netted him our gig -- Crosby - Malkin - Bonino - Cullen. Or the 05-06/06-07 Sabres who were so very good: Briere - Drury - Connolly - Gaustad/Mair. You need to be good down the middle.

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Just now, Thorny said:

@DarthEbriateAgree. Also, the Vesey comment was in jest. Whenever someone says, oh well, it was only a 3rd, I think about how it affects our potential to offer sheet. Not that we or anyone would, anway, I guess. 

I know it was in jest...  or... at least, I took it in jest and went with it in Star Wars quote. ?

The lack of RFA-plundering bugs me. We've got teams against the cap. We're likely looking at a flat or dip in the cap next season, when everyone was banking on another boost. This is when you break out the RFA offer sheets. I mean --- you're a GM. Sure, you want to be good and get along with all your GM buddies for trades. But you also have one of 31 (to be 32) jobs in the world and you should be doing what you can to ensure you're hired for a long time. If you become a Holland and have your gig and playoffs for 25 years, great. But if you're new, you'd better be scratching and clawing to ensure you survive longer than 3 years. If you win a few Cups, everyone will forget your failed offer sheets anyway.

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On 4/1/2020 at 9:41 AM, Broken Ankles said:

There is zero percent chance Cirelli goes to the Peg.  The primary reason is you have no Cap space to support this.  Assuming the Cap stays at $81m, Your team has $7.5 to sign 4 Forwards, 3 D and a backup Goalie.   Newsflash.  Cirelli’s AAV will be north of $7m by itself.  Secondarily, they have $10.5 committed to the Blue line.  It’s more probable than not you actually trade a current forward to beef up it rather than add to the forward ranks.  Third, Winnipeg has an abundance at Center already.   Adding Cirelli to the Peg and ignoring other holes would be the equivalent of the NY Yankees forgoing a pitcher acquisition to get a DH to add more home runs to its line up.   Lastly, your package for trade is light.   None of those players are grade A and your 1st round pick is too low.   You haven’t the assets to move the needle.  

An abundance at Center? Really, enlighten me. As far as cap space goes we have about 19 million in cap space next year. I don't know where you get your numbers from but they are wrong.

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1 hour ago, Ducky said:

An abundance at Center? Really, enlighten me. As far as cap space goes we have about 19 million in cap space next year. I don't know where you get your numbers from but they are wrong.

I pulled the data from CapFriendly (below) and your correct, it does not appear to match.   Their projected cap of $75.5M does not equal the sum of Forwards, D, IR and Goal.  I've never seen this not calculated correctly.  The sum of this is $65.91M.  So assuming the Salary Cap does not change ($81M), WPG has $15M in space.    My comments still stand  regarding how quickly that money will need to be spent, AND more importantly WHERE IT GOES.  You need to sign 3 Defenders, and two of them have to be quality.   The medium positional spending for Defense is $21M.   WPG has allocated under $11M as of today.  Third lowest in the league.  The analytics backed up the eye test this season suggesting that WPG gave up way too many high danger chances and their Expected GA was second worst in the league.  If Helley goes down for 3-4 weeks, the season is dust. There is definitely going to be at least $8M spent there retooling.   Add $1.5-2M for a back up Goalie.   Forwards you need 5.  So even if they give their bottom 3 min contracts of $700K, with Roslovic due a raise  that adds another $4M.  Leaving $1M in space.  Moving Copp or Lowry is not going to get you under.  Their first is going to be around #17 overall.  Not very valuable.  Let's make a friendly wager that most of the offseason moves are on the Blue line and not at Center. 

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On 4/4/2020 at 11:26 AM, Brawndo said:

The rumor is their offer was better than Carolina’s 

So subjective. Can't put any stock in that. 

On 4/8/2020 at 11:20 AM, Ducky said:

An abundance at Center? Really, enlighten me. As far as cap space goes we have about 19 million in cap space next year. I don't know where you get your numbers from but they are wrong.

Agree, abundance and C are not two terms I'd put together for the Peg. 

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On 4/8/2020 at 5:17 PM, Broken Ankles said:

I pulled the data from CapFriendly (below) and your correct, it does not appear to match.   Their projected cap of $75.5M does not equal the sum of Forwards, D, IR and Goal.  I've never seen this not calculated correctly.  The sum of this is $65.91M.  So assuming the Salary Cap does not change ($81M), WPG has $15M in space.    My comments still stand  regarding how quickly that money will need to be spent, AND more importantly WHERE IT GOES.  You need to sign 3 Defenders, and two of them have to be quality.   The medium positional spending for Defense is $21M.   WPG has allocated under $11M as of today.  Third lowest in the league.  The analytics backed up the eye test this season suggesting that WPG gave up way too many high danger chances and their Expected GA was second worst in the league.  If Helley goes down for 3-4 weeks, the season is dust. There is definitely going to be at least $8M spent there retooling.   Add $1.5-2M for a back up Goalie.   Forwards you need 5.  So even if they give their bottom 3 min contracts of $700K, with Roslovic due a raise  that adds another $4M.  Leaving $1M in space.  Moving Copp or Lowry is not going to get you under.  Their first is going to be around #17 overall.  Not very valuable.  Let's make a friendly wager that most of the offseason moves are on the Blue line and not at Center. 

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Ehlers Scheif Wheeler 20.375m

Connor Little Laine 19.15m

Copper Lowry Roslo 6.5m

Harkins Gus Appleton 3m

Forwards ~49m

JMo DeMelo 9.25m

Slamberg Pionk 4.2m

Heinola Poolman 1.7m

Boolow Niku 2m

D ~17.15

Helle backup? 7.6m

G ~7.6

TOTAL under 74m

I am assuming Perreault and his 4.125m AAV are gone.

Chevy isn't giving a backup 2m believe me. 

The D might be different with a vet signed to a reasonable deal for the expansion draft rules but that will only change it by 1 or 2 million at most.

Add 7m for Cirelli and take away Lowry's 2.9m or Copper's 2.3m and we are still under the cap with breathing room. It is the year after when Pionk and Laine re-signs that Chevy is going to have to move someone if the cap doesn't go up considerably. Chevy is pretty good at getting reasonable long term deals and cap issues....

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