Why is Botterill still GM?

[Thorny]

5 hours ago, E4 ... Ke2 said:

Clearly, it was part of JNot's strategy to have about $30M free this off-season:

It was when a lot of contracts JBottom inherited or acquired would expire and the only unacceptable contract which he did not create was Okposo.

He has money for contracts for in-house RFAs and UFAs.

He also has money to acquire a big ticket item from outside to boot.

He has "his" coach broken in.

IMHO, his primary goal the last 4 years was to clear the decks from the GMTM years and build the foundation HIS way.  That doesn't excuse his performance and influence on the team's horrendous performance in the interim..

It also doesn't excuse the plan being horrible, it's hardly only execution that should be under fire here. 

Pissing away 3 years to clear the decks. Give me a break. 

2 hours ago, dudacek said:

This exactly.

If Tage Thompson and Casey Mittelstadt were about to emerge as top 6 forwards, Carter Hutton had been a solid starter handing the torch to a legit #1 in Ullmark, Montour and Miller were playing like legit top four D, and some of Vesey, Sheary, Sobotka, Berglund, Johansson etc. had been more than filler, we’d be poised to make a big jump this summer.

The plan wasn’t bad, the player selection has been.

The plan was bad. The timeline is ridiculous. You can't afford to piss away that many years on as many maybes as you just listed. Just because the plan *could* succeed doesn't mean it was a good one. The plan was bad - too many variables - it was always unlikely to succeed. 

I'm sorry, if you *willingly* downgrade a team, intentionally bumping back the timeline, that actual plan itself is subject to criticism if your talent evaluation doesn't pan out, even if it theoretically could have. He didn't just make a bunch of bad personnel moves in an effort to re-mold the roster. He pushed back the timeline willingly, first. Those wasted years are a massive mark against his plan. 

Edited May 15, 2020 by Thorny

[Eleven]

5 hours ago, E4 ... Ke2 said:

Clearly, it was part of JNot's strategy to have about $30M free this off-season:

It was when a lot of contracts JBottom inherited or acquired would expire and the only unacceptable contract which he did not create was Okposo.

He has money for contracts for in-house RFAs and UFAs.

He also has money to acquire a big ticket item from outside to boot.

He has "his" coach broken in.

IMHO, his primary goal the last 4 years was to clear the decks from the GMTM years and build the foundation HIS way.  That doesn't excuse his performance and influence on the team's horrendous performance in the interim..

Part of that is suggested by the sentence represented by @nfreeman's second ellipsis (freeman couldn't have quoted the entire answer and been within the bounds of what this board considers fair use of paywalled stuff):  "That should help Botterill get a sense of how liberated Beane must've felt when the Bills gutted the roster Doug Whaley built."

The key difference, though, is that Beane has proved himself to be capable, and Botterill has not.

Edited May 15, 2020 by Eleven

[PASabreFan]

39 minutes ago, Thorny said:

It also doesn't excuse the plan being horrible, it's hardly only execution that should be under fire here. 

Pissing away 3 years to clear the decks. Give me a break. 

The plan was bad. The timeline is ridiculous. You can't afford to piss away that many years on as many maybes as you just listed. Just because the plan *could* succeed doesn't mean it was a good one. The plan was bad - too many variables - it was always unlikely to succeed. 

I'm sorry, if you *willingly* downgrade a team, intentionally bumping back the timeline, that actual plan itself is subject to criticism if your talent evaluation doesn't pan out, even if it theoretically could have. He didn't just make a bunch of bad personnel moves in an effort to re-mold the roster. He pushed back the timeline willingly, first. Those wasted years are a massive mark against his plan. 

You'd think Sabres fans by now would know that glory glory hallelujah in Year Four is, always has been, and always will be NONSENSE™!

[dudacek]

1 hour ago, PASabreFan said:

You'd think Sabres fans by now would know that glory glory hallelujah in Year Four is, always has been, and always will be NONSENSE™!

Punch’s expansion team started bad, teased in year 3 and arrived in year 5.

Scotty started at the top and regressed every season but one.

Meehan took a bad team to a contender in year three

Muckler started and finished with a mediocre team. His best year was year three.

Darcy’s Hasek team was consistent in the regular season, steadily improved in the playoffs. Peaked year three in the playoffs, year 5 in regular season.

Darcy’s second run was mediocre to start when he hit reset and peaked in years four and five.

Edited May 16, 2020 by dudacek

[dudacek]

Bad to good in three years has happened once in Sabre history.

[PASabreFan]

Like I said.

[dudacek]

2 hours ago, Thorny said:

. 

I'm sorry, if you *willingly* downgrade a team, intentionally bumping back the timeline, that actual plan itself is subject to criticism if your talent evaluation doesn't pan out, even if it theoretically could have. He didn't just make a bunch of bad personnel moves in an effort to re-mold the roster. He pushed back the timeline willingly, first. Those wasted years are a massive mark against his plan. 

Yeah, no point going over old ground because we know we just disagree, but I don’t believe Botterill did this.

I don’t even think he did that with O’Reilly, and he certainly didn’t with Sheary and Scandella and Vesey and Miller and Beaulieu and Montour and Johansson and Hutton and Skinner. Those were all moves where he sacrificed futures and/or cap space to get better now.

They weren’t filler while he was biding his time. He thought they were going to help. He was wrong.

Edited May 16, 2020 by dudacek

[nfreeman]

I will just add that there is NFW that JB was going for DFL in his 1st year.  He tried to improve the team and missed by a mile.  Even though they ended up with Dahlin, that team was JB's first NHL team and it was terrible.

Actually, 1 more thing:  I think I believe Tim Graham that TP was very close to firing JB.

[Pimlach]

44 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Punch’s expansion team started bad, teased in year 3 and arrived in year 5.

Scotty started at the top and regressed every season but one.

Meehan took a bad team to a contender in year three

Muckler started and finished with a mediocre team. His best year was year three.

Darcy’s Hasek team was consistent in the regular season, steadily improved in the playoffs. Peaked year three in the playoffs, year 5 in regular season.

Darcy’s second run was mediocre to start when he hit reset and peaked in years four and five.

I’m ready to drop ‘em.   We started great!   We put fans in the seats, we were fun, and we played hard.  

The year 3 team pulled a great feat making the playoffs in an extremely tough Division so quickly.  Guts!  

Year 5 - they mugged us and they had Parent in his prime. 
 

[dudacek]

2 minutes ago, Pimlach said:

I’m ready to drop ‘em.   We started great!   We put fans in the seats, we were fun, and we played hard.  

The year 3 team pulled a great feat making the playoffs in an extremely tough Division so quickly.  Guts!  

Year 5 - they mugged us and they had Parent in his prime. 
 

C’mon man, you’re older than my grampa, don’t go all Mendelbaum on me.

[Pimlach]

19 minutes ago, dudacek said:

C’mon man, you’re older than my grampa, don’t go all Mendelbaum on me.

 

 

[DarthEbriate]

JBot has failed in many things, and succeeded (overall minor league replenishment; lottery luck) in others. But the most important thing is fielding a competitive roster. And each of the last two seasons the team has started fast and then lost the "planned 2C" -- in 18-19 Berglund retired, despite having already been demoted to a 4W; and in 19-20, Mitts was demoted to the AHL. In both cases, that left a gaping hole in the lineup that JBot chose to ignore. He had resources (RHD, picks, prospects) to move for an interim or permanent 2C. He chose to ignore it both seasons, and we slowly deteriorated each time. That's egregious. You don't have to trade a Cozens to get a stop-gap 2C with one year remaining. But instead he did nothing for the 2C. Instead, he got Montour in 2019 and Frolik in 2020.

[Eleven]

15 minutes ago, DarthEbriate said:

JBot has failed in many things, and succeeded (overall minor league replenishment; lottery luck) in others. But the most important thing is fielding a competitive roster. And each of the last two seasons the team has started fast and then lost the "planned 2C" -- in 18-19 Berglund retired, despite having already been demoted to a 4W; and in 19-20, Mitts was demoted to the AHL. In both cases, that left a gaping hole in the lineup that JBot chose to ignore. He had resources (RHD, picks, prospects) to move for an interim or permanent 2C. He chose to ignore it both seasons, and we slowly deteriorated each time. That's egregious. You don't have to trade a Cozens to get a stop-gap 2C with one year remaining. But instead he did nothing for the 2C. Instead, he got Montour in 2019 and Frolik in 2020.

HE HAD A 2C.  HE HAD ONE OF THE BEST.  I AM SCREAMING BECAUSE OF THAT STUPID TRADE.

[DarthEbriate]

29 minutes ago, Eleven said:

HE HAD A 2C.  HE HAD ONE OF THE BEST.  I AM SCREAMING BECAUSE OF THAT STUPID TRADE.

We're all still yelling Nooooooooo at that trade. We've even digitally added in the Nooooo for the folks who didn't yell No the first time. But what's worse is he had 2 full years to address that mistake while we had promising starts to seasons---and the unraveling of the backup plans---and still did nothing. That's the real failure. It's one thing to make one bad decision (whether forced by ownership or not), it's another to ignore the mistake for 2 years running. And Marcus Johansson is a solid NHL-caliber player, but he's not a center.

Edit: Wouldn't it be nice to see Eichel grow into his own superstar level, as he has. And have ROR as the Swiss Army Knife 2C. And to have a tenacious 3C in Angry Larry to keep them both rested. And then --- you can have anyone play 4C. Want a rookie to get groomed? No problem. Want an energy-only guy? No problem. Strength down the middle taken care of. (It's one thing learned from watching those 1998-99 and 2005-06 teams in these old games. They had an abundance of centers. Maybe not a bunch of 1A/1B options like Eichel and ROR, but a whole bunch of 2s.)

Edited May 16, 2020 by DarthEbriate

[Thorny]

13 hours ago, Eleven said:

HE HAD A 2C.  HE HAD ONE OF THE BEST.  I AM SCREAMING BECAUSE OF THAT STUPID TRADE.

Like I said, his plan sucked. 

- - - 

 

13 hours ago, DarthEbriate said:

We're all still yelling Nooooooooo at that trade. We've even digitally added in the Nooooo for the folks who didn't yell No the first time. But what's worse is he had 2 full years to address that mistake while we had promising starts to seasons---and the unraveling of the backup plans---and still did nothing. That's the real failure. It's one thing to make one bad decision (whether forced by ownership or not), it's another to ignore the mistake for 2 years running. And Marcus Johansson is a solid NHL-caliber player, but he's not a center.

Edit: Wouldn't it be nice to see Eichel grow into his own superstar level, as he has. And have ROR as the Swiss Army Knife 2C. And to have a tenacious 3C in Angry Larry to keep them both rested. And then --- you can have anyone play 4C. Want a rookie to get groomed? No problem. Want an energy-only guy? No problem. Strength down the middle taken care of. (It's one thing learned from watching those 1998-99 and 2005-06 teams in these old games. They had an abundance of centers. Maybe not a bunch of 1A/1B options like Eichel and ROR, but a whole bunch of 2s.)

If this doesn't speak to a lack of urgency in his plans, a willingness to push things back whenever possible...I don't know what does. 

Edited May 16, 2020 by Thorny

[Weave]

And GMTM gets all the ***** for wasting resources to win now.

[Marvin]

9 minutes ago, Weave said:

And GMTM gets all the ***** for wasting resources to win now.

Yes, he does.  Those were prime resources that he threw away, albeit for prime or seemingly prime returns.  JBottom throws away less prime resources for lesser returns.  Neither is preferable.

[dudacek]

38 minutes ago, Thorny said:

Like I said, his plan sucked. 

- - - 

 

If this doesn't speak to a lack of urgency in his plans, a willingness to push things back whenever possible...I don't know what does. 

Serious question: how is trading picks for veterans pushing things back?
Isn’t it the definition of trading the future for now?

Is it your position that he could have and should have been aiming higher (Tavares, Karlsson, Duchene, Stone, Hayes, Pacioretty...) and wasn’t interested? You don’t think the Montour and Skinner trades were made with the idea of adding to the core now?

[Thorny]

33 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Serious question: how is trading picks for veterans pushing things back?
Isn’t it the definition of trading the future for now?

Is it your position that he could have and should have been aiming higher (Tavares, Karlsson, Duchene, Stone, Hayes, Pacioretty...) and wasn’t interested? You don’t think the Montour and Skinner trades were made with the idea of adding to the core now?

No my “pushing things back” comment referred to the bolded bit I quoted from Darth’s post. The twitter bit should have been marked as a separate point as well. 

The Skinner trade was a unicorn that fell into his lap, but I agree that the contract, which is terrible, is of the “win now” variety, but as a UFA deal I’m not sure what else it could have been. 

Regardless, that’s his outlier deal. His other trades have been moderate moves, a moneyball-like attempt (I believe you’ve referenced this re: Botterill) at paying mid-level draft pick currency to acquire seemingly mid/low level players he thought might achieve the desired goal with enough quantity. 

He has yet to replace ROR, or, I’d argue, even been truly interested in attempting to. I refuse to believe he thought the stop gaps he brought in could actually provide that value, and he’s been content with “value” placeholder additions at F, for the most part (definitely at C). Waiting on Cozens now, who he’s already said is penned into next year’s lineup. 

The elephant in the room is everyone knows he misjudged Mittelstadt. He had him growing into 2C sooner rather than later and in his mind this made moving the “malcontent” ROR possible, so what if that lined up our timeframe more with Dahlin (as Friedman mentioned he wanted to) than with Eichel. 

He’s proven he’s in no rush to fill that spot through trade with a bonafide. Cozens is our next shot. 

Edited May 16, 2020 by Thorny

[dudacek]

4 hours ago, Thorny said:

replace ROR, or, I’d argue, even been truly interested in attempting to. I refuse to believe he thought the stop gaps he brought in could actually provide that value, and he’s been content with “value” placeholder additions at F, for the most part (definitely at C). Waiting on Cozens now, who he’s already said is penned into next year’s lineup.

I missed the bolded. When did he say that?

As for the rest, we'll just disagree while we agree on the crucial fact: whatever the cause, the result is not acceptable.

[Thorny]

10 minutes ago, dudacek said:

I missed the bolded. When did he say that?

As for the rest, we'll just disagree while we agree on the crucial fact: whatever the cause, the result is not acceptable.

I’ll try and find it. I believe someone posted it here (maybe Brawndo?) from a reputable source that it’s the organization’s “expectation” that he’ll be on the opening night line up. Expectation is the part I’m referencing which gave me pause. It’s what he’s expecting rather than hoping for, you’d have to hope a GM would plan as if it’s no guarantee. 

[Thorny]

Lance is from the Buffalo News.

Edited May 17, 2020 by Thorny

[GASabresIUFAN]

I've been saying for months that Cozens will be a Sabre next fall.  That is not exactly Earth shattering news.  The real question is whether Jbot will be foolish again to force the kid in the 2C role or put another former center (like MoJo or Kahun) into the 2C role.

Ideally, MoJo and Kahun stay on the wings, Cozens plays 3C and Jbot gets a legit 2C.  

Edited May 17, 2020 by GASabresIUFAN

[sabremike]

3 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

I've been saying for months that Cozens will be a Sabre next fall.  That is not exactly Earth shattering news.  The real question is whether Jbot will be foolish again to force the kid in the 2C role or put another former center (like MoJo or Kahun) into the 2C role.

Ideally, MoJo and Kahun stay on the wings, Cozens plays 3C and Jbot gets a legit 2C.  

Given this organization's (and the current GM's) lengthy and disastrous track record of mishandling prospects everyone would be wise to greet this news with a very healthy dose of skepticism.

[Marvin]

Even if we leave aside 2C, JBottom's failures are legion: Benoit Pouliot, Nathan Beaulieu, Jacob Josefson, Seth Griffith, Remi Elie, Matt Hunwick, Conor Sheary, Vladimir Sobotka, Michael Frolik, Wayne Simmonds, Tage Thompson in the NHL, Casey Mittlestadt in the NHL.  (I gave him a break with Jordan Nolan [Cup Winner], Carter Hutton [glue guy], Jimmy Vesey, Dalton Smith, Brendan Guhle + 1st for Brandon Montour, not moving Zach Bogosian sooner, Patrik Berglund, Colin Miller, Scott Wilson, the Marco Scandella trade, Chad Johnson, Justin Falk, and Taylor Fedun.)

For three consecutive years, JNot has failed to have 12 NHL-calibre forwards and 4 full-time NHL-calibre centers on the roster the entire season.  Rushing Cozens is eminently predictable.  How can we realistically expect a decent bottom 9 without 4 centers and JNot's inability to craft that part of the roster?