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2 hours ago, hsif said:

Montana was added to the new listing...... 2 deaths yesterday....... 110 new cases (7-day avg.) on 2900 tests (7-day avg)..... or 3.8% positive on tests...... I don't understand the NYS hurdles. 

https://covidtracking.com/data/charts/all-metrics-per-state 

 

The criteria are explained in the article I posted.  Whether the criteria are appropriate, I have no idea.

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5 hours ago, Eleven said:

New York has expanded its list of states for the travel advisory:  https://www.wivb.com/news/local-news/10-more-states-added-to-new-york-coronavirus-travel-advisory-31-total-on-updated-list/

 

On Thursday, my parents spent a night in one of the newly-added states.  All they did was stay in a hotel and move on (they had been visiting my sister in a state that is not on the list.)  Any doctor here care to tell me what to tell them?

Staying in a Hotel Two Nights is considered low-moderate risk, which is the same as eating at a restaurant outside. They only stayed one which should decrease their risk. 
 

 

Depending on the State, My advice would be quarantine for Seven Days and then get tested if negative at that point they should be Ok. 
 

 

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6 hours ago, hsif said:

Montana was added to the new listing...... 2 deaths yesterday....... 110 new cases (7-day avg.) on 2900 tests (7-day avg)..... or 3.8% positive on tests...... I don't understand the NYS hurdles. 

https://covidtracking.com/data/charts/all-metrics-per-state

9ec15194-8d49-4237-9082-60b95a374b71_tex

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I think I finished the internet and I can’t watch another second of television.

... and it’s too damn muggy to see the comet.

covid sux.

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23 hours ago, That Aud Smell said:

Is there a place you go for reliable up to date data that provides more than total new cases, total new deaths, etc.? I hear a lot about hospitalization rates, deaths per 100,000, and so on -- it seems that we need more context than "cases are increasing in number."

Yeh that is hard to find in a database

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11 hours ago, carpandean said:

9ec15194-8d49-4237-9082-60b95a374b71_tex

 

now you have

i-GDmCR6J-600x450.jpg

 

Edited by North Buffalo
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I'm headed to Montana in September to chase elk...... Looks like fun, eh? Although, this pic was from early November, and back when I was a real man. Rain + freeze + snow = misery. Hoping that the Montana covid numbers come back into line so I won't have to quarantine upon return. 

Camp2.jpg

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5 minutes ago, hsif said:

I'm headed to Montana in September to chase elk...... Looks like fun, eh? Although, this pic was from early November, and back when I was a real man. Rain + freeze + snow = misery. Hoping that the Montana covid numbers come back into line so I won't have to quarantine upon return. 

Camp2.jpg

That's impressive.  Sitting on my balcony, I run into my apartment at the first clap of thunder.  

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I follow some COVID-19 skeptics on Twitter, just so I'm not hearing just one message.

One of them (Berenson?) pointed out this CDC slide deck from a few years back, which is interesting food for thought.

https://www.cdc.gov/media/pdf/mitigationslides.pdf

One takeaway: A Category 2 influenza pandemic would involve between 90K and 450K excess deaths. Category 2 flu pandemics were previously experienced in 1957 and 1968. The mitigation measures recommended for a "Cat 2" in these CDC materials are ... well, it's a little hard to tell whether they're less strict than what's being done now.

Edited by That Aud Smell

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6 minutes ago, That Aud Smell said:

I follow some COVID-19 skeptics on Twitter, just so I'm not hearing just one message.

One of them (Berenson?) pointed out this CDC slide deck from a few years back, which is interesting food for thought.

https://www.cdc.gov/media/pdf/mitigationslides.pdf

One takeaway: A Category 2 influenza pandemic would involve between 90K and 450K excess deaths. Category 2 flu pandemics were previously experienced in 1957 and 1968. The mitigation measures recommended for a "Cat 2" in these CDC materials are ... well, it's a little hard to tell whether they're less strict than what's being done now.

The only thing I will note is that assumes a 30% illness rate. 30% would be 96million ppl. Let's say we have 1% death rate in that... we have 960,000k deaths. Let's pray to god we don't see 30% infection rates. 

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10 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

The only thing I will note is that assumes a 30% illness rate. 30% would be 96million ppl. Let's say we have 1% death rate in that... we have 960,000k deaths. Let's pray to god we don't see 30% infection rates. 

I'm just catching that now. I appreciate your keen eye on it as well. What's our national illness rate? 1%? 2%?

So the fact that COVID-19 is currently within the limits of Category 2 is a function of the steps that have been taken, not its likely lethality.

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15 minutes ago, That Aud Smell said:

I'm just catching that now. I appreciate your keen eye on it as well. What's our national illness rate? 1%? 2%?

So the fact that COVID-19 is currently within the limits of Category 2 is a function of the steps that have been taken, not its likely lethality.

If you read that chart is shows what a mortality rate looks like at 30% for each category. If we ran a true 30% illness rate and 1% death rate we would be in Cat 4. 

I would guess that mask usage and social distancing has definitely helped. We won't know it's actual lethality for awhile but I think around 1% seems likely. There are so many underlying conditions it impacts it is really hard to say what C19 really does and who is most at risk (outside of obviously older adults). We also don't know about lasting impacts such as children having issues later in life who are COVID survivors. A lot of questions right now and that is why Fauci for example has changed answers as time has progressed, it's just science learning more and things being updated as we go. 

Edited by LGR4GM
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I will be venturing out to the grocery store tomorrow when they open at 7:00 AM for my monthly outing.

Will be dressed like a bankrobber ... hey, oh @Sabel79 ... 

 

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On 7/1/2020 at 6:12 AM, Weave said:

It’s too bad @biodorkisn’t active on this site any more.  Would be interesting to hear from additional voices with medical research experience.  Claude adds an interesting perspective to the conversation.

Oh hai

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Sorry I've been MIA, all; my lab is actually running COVID tests (the PCR test for active infections) and we've been absolutely buried the last several weeks. Too much to realistically catch up on here, but I hope you and yours are healthy and safe.

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1 hour ago, biodork said:

Oh hai

 

Edited by Eleven
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This is for Swampy. I just opened this thread. Before I went to bed last night, the Welcome Back theme song popped up on YouTube, seemingly randomly.

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On 7/21/2020 at 8:07 AM, North Buffalo said:

Fla about to pass NY in total cases in approximately 6 days... Cali 3 days... TX... 14 days

Sorry I’m late on this one, but are we really surprised that the three states with more people than New York will have more cases than New York? If anything, it just shows how bad that initial rush in cases was. 

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3 hours ago, shrader said:

Sorry I’m late on this one, but are we really surprised that the three states with more people than New York will have more cases than New York? If anything, it just shows how bad that initial rush in cases was. 

Yes and No... No given your point... yes because you would have thought they understood how NY got it under control and followed suit.  Even NY needs to be careful not to drop the ball...

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Interesting report in the Wall Street Journal today.  The usual influenza wave in the southern hemisphere doesn't appear to be taking shape.  Assumption is that all of the protective measures for COVID is resulting in the influenza virus not getting an opportunity to get  foothold.  Could be good news for later this year in the US.  If we stay diligent with masks and distancing maybe there isn't an influenza outbreak this season to compound COVID.

 

I'd link it but it is paywalled.

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