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Not responding to any particular post here.

I love how we have to wait on the data for some correlations, but are so confident about others.

How do we know that there wouldn't have been even more deaths if the hospital space wasn't freed up during the peak by sending patients back to care homes?

Politicking this virus will be our downfall.

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3 hours ago, Taro T said:

Are we realistically going to "stop the spread" before herd immunity is reached?  If we truly can do that & simply get the virus to go away, great, but how do we get there? Many areas that didn't have a 1st wave made it to June before seeing it, but many of them eventually got it.  Areas that had a 1st wave, fortunately haven't seen a 2nd spike, again ttbomk.  Is that due to herd immunity in those places finally being reached, for some other reason, or is it just a matter of time until we do start seeing 2nd waves?

There was hope the virus would go away come the summer.  That doesn't seem to be the case as in several areas cases have been increasing since early June.  Fortunately, where we are seeing new peaks, we are seeing the median age of the people contracting it trending downward and many of those are asymptomatic.   Will that keep the death rates low or possibly even still declining?  Don't know, but am expecting we won't see a spike in the death rates as we should have already been seeing that for the past 10 days+.  Will still be watching them and hoping that remains the case.

 

Based on what happened in Chappaqua... I'd say social distancing and mask wearing has helped.  Anecdotal sure but one infected asymptomatic in an area already hit... doesnt imply much herd immunity or maybe that area never reached the herd threshold because of social distancing and mask wearing... 

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1 hour ago, Taro T said:

Absolutely agree with the bolded, not sure what in the post you were referring to suggested otherwise.

We (& far more importantly, our medical community advising our leaders) had EXTREMELY limited info about the novel virus but there were models that predicted true calamity if no actions were taken back during the winter.

Extreme & unprecedented actions were taken & the direst predictions didn't come true though the situation in our nation's largest city and surrounding region ended up plenty dire.  We're still learning & still trying to figure out how best to get more or less back to normal while keeping the virus at bay.  Realizing that actions (and inactions) can have far reaching & unexpected consequences.

And yes, act on those items we're relatively sure of, but turn on a dime when we find out that we don't actually know what we thought we knew.  And then, lather, rinse, repeat.

Not entirely addressing you specifically, sorry.

Just the whole back and forth with some saying we should be following medical/scientific guidelines more stringently, and others saying that we don’t REALLY know FOR SURE, that would help at all.

Come on people, I don’t REALLY know  FOR SURE that I’m going to wake up tomorrow morning, but I’m pretty sure of it, and I probably should plan accordingly.

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F....ing Virus.

Just had to re-schedule my daughter's wedding one year.  Can't have dancing if everyone has to be 6 feet apart.  

 

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15 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

F....ing Virus.

Just had to re-schedule my daughter's wedding one year.  Can't have dancing if everyone has to be 6 feet apart.  

 

Sure you could... it's called line dancing.

But, I'd be more concerned about the removal of masks to eat and especially drink, lol.

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My parents will be at my house on July 7th. Hooray! I'm an enormous hypocrite and piece of *****! They're coming from Florida where they have partied like spring breakers for the past 7 months. They won't dare ask me if it's ok to stay at my house on their return trip to NY. Nope! They ask my wife. My wife who can't say no to anything ever! "Oh they've done so much for us!" Yeah, I ***** know they have! Doesn't mean I want them to infect my wife and son. Then when they get to NY they'll claim they're coming from Pennsylvania to avoid self quarantine. This sucks! They suck! And I suck! *****, I hate myself!

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FTR, I believe that the sacrifices made by the people doing the right thing and staying home had the biggest role in NY’s recovery. 
How the hell did Ontario county, being 300+ miles from NYC, get herd immunity? If you really think that’s the case, and not that the good people of NY did the right thing, then I’d like talk to you about some land for sale. It isn’t full of glacial gravel and rocks. I swear. 

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9 minutes ago, ubkev said:

My parents will be at my house on July 7th. Hooray! I'm an enormous hypocrite and piece of *****! They're coming from Florida where they have partied like spring breakers for the past 7 months. They won't dare ask me if it's ok to stay at my house on their return trip to NY. Nope! They ask my wife. My wife who can't say no to anything ever! "Oh they've done so much for us!" Yeah, I ***** know they have! Doesn't mean I want them to infect my wife and son. Then when they get to NY they'll claim they're coming from Pennsylvania to avoid self quarantine. This sucks! They suck! And I suck! *****, I hate myself!

What in the blazes are you all thinking, man?

If I were you I'd leave town and let them find an abandoned house.

Edited by New Scotland (NS)
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2 hours ago, Curt said:

Not entirely addressing you specifically, sorry.

Just the whole back and forth with some saying we should be following medical/scientific guidelines more stringently, and others saying that we don’t REALLY know FOR SURE, that would help at all.

Come on people, I don’t REALLY know  FOR SURE that I’m going to wake up tomorrow morning, but I’m pretty sure of it, and I probably should plan accordingly.

I am saying that we should follow the guidelines stringently AND that we don't know for sure to what extent they are helping. Because we dont. Without getting into the weeds of molecular virology,  this pandemic and its spread goes beyond just public health mitigation measures, as important as they are.

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2 minutes ago, New Scotland (NS) said:

What in the blazes are you all thinking, man?

If I were you I'd leave town and let them find an abandoned house.

I have an awful misguided sense of loyalty to family. I'd burn the world down for them. I told you, I suck!

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After an hour on the phone I've finally convinced my parents to be tested. They're going tomorrow and they can't come up unless they've passed. No visiting me in PA and no skipping me and going straight home to NY.

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13 minutes ago, ubkev said:

After an hour on the phone I've finally convinced my parents to be tested. They're going tomorrow and they can't come up unless they've passed. No visiting me in PA and no skipping me and going straight home to NY.

Nice work. My mom’s 80th birthday is in two weeks. I think I’m going to get tested before I go.

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3 hours ago, ubkev said:

My parents will be at my house on July 7th. Hooray! I'm an enormous hypocrite and piece of *****! They're coming from Florida where they have partied like spring breakers for the past 7 months. They won't dare ask me if it's ok to stay at my house on their return trip to NY. Nope! They ask my wife. My wife who can't say no to anything ever! "Oh they've done so much for us!" Yeah, I ***** know they have! Doesn't mean I want them to infect my wife and son. Then when they get to NY they'll claim they're coming from Pennsylvania to avoid self quarantine. This sucks! They suck! And I suck! *****, I hate myself!

Why would you say you hate yourself?

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3 hours ago, Claude_Verret said:

I am saying that we should follow the guidelines stringently AND that we don't know for sure to what extent they are helping. Because we dont. Without getting into the weeds of molecular virology,  this pandemic and its spread goes beyond just public health mitigation measures, as important as they are.

But we do.

No, we don't know all the microscopic details, but we have empirical evidence from states and countries that have suppressed the spread of the disease.  Various countries have enacted combination of testing, contact tracing, social distancing, disinfecting and mask use to reduce the spread and shrink the number of cases.  I don't need to know the details if I can look at it from a macro level and see that it worked for a whole state or whole country.

Edited by Doohickie

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10 minutes ago, Doohickie said:

But we do.

No, we don't know all the microscopic details, but we have empirical evidence from states and countries that have suppressed the spread of the disease.  Various countries have enacted combination of testing, contact tracing, social distancing, disinfecting and mask use to reduce the spread and shrink the number of cases.  I don't need to know the details if I can look at it from a macro level and see that it worked for a whole state or whole country.

Ok. Google is certainly the way most folks are tracking this pandemic  I'll continue using pubmed.

 

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23 minutes ago, Claude_Verret said:

Ok. Google is certainly the way most folks are tracking this pandemic  I'll continue using pubmed.

 

Google isn't a way of tracking anything. It's a search engine. It even brings up results from pubmed.

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16 minutes ago, PASabreFan said:

Google isn't a way of tracking anything. It's a search engine. It even brings up results from pubmed.

And how often do you read anything from pubmed beyond the abstract?

And Google is always all too willing to take you wherever your search string tells it to. You want data telling you that people not wearing masks is akin to murder? Google will take you there. Want data that says you should flush your masks down the toilet? Google will take you there too.

 

Edited by Claude_Verret

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45 minutes ago, Claude_Verret said:

And how often do you read anything from pubmed beyond the abstract?

And Google is always all too willing to take you wherever your search string tells it to. You want data telling you that people not wearing masks is akin to murder? Google will take you there. Want data that says you should flush your masks down the toilet? Google will take you there too.

 

The internet is not new. Anyone with half a brain knows by now how to evaluate sources and not just click on the first link as your answer.

This sounds like every doctor I've known over the age of 60.

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3 hours ago, ubkev said:

After an hour on the phone I've finally convinced my parents to be tested. They're going tomorrow and they can't come up unless they've passed. No visiting me in PA and no skipping me and going straight home to NY.

Thank you.

 

I didn't visit my parents inside their house until stage 3.  We would visit outside if it was warm enough.

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6 minutes ago, Eleven said:

Thank you.

 

I didn't visit my parents inside their house until stage 3.  We would visit outside if it was warm enough.

Same. My grandma lives with my parents and i didn't visit them from early March until stage 3. Even then it was mostly BBQ on the deck with some beers. Crazy times.

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29 minutes ago, Reino23 said:

Same. My grandma lives with my parents and i didn't visit them from early March until stage 3. Even then it was mostly BBQ on the deck with some beers. Crazy times.

I wouldn't even accept a glass of water from my mother until stage 3.  I'd bring a bottle of water if I was thirsty.  I didn't want anything to touch them or their things.

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Not visiting my 86 year old Dad til this thing has blown over.

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8 hours ago, PASabreFan said:

The internet is not new. Anyone with half a brain knows by now how to evaluate sources and not just click on the first link as your answer.

This sounds like every doctor I've known over the age of 60.

Right. So youre validating your sources how exactly?  Im sure its by going to the peer reviewed literature and assessing the study design, methodology, results and conclusions. 

As usual, you're clueless.

 

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Well, that went sideways.

If I understand Claude correctly, all he is saying is, the data re: masks is still being collected and evaluated so no firm conclusions should be made, BUT based on what has been observed so far, wearing masks appears to make sense as a reasonable deterrent to virus transfer in casual contact situations.

Or thats what I want Claude to be saying.  Either one.

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Throw this into the pot as a potential cause for the rise in cases. As I said before changes on the micro level, in this case a single amino acid mutation in the spike protein domain involved in ACE2 receptor binding, can have effects as well. Appropriate grain of salt as this is a single study in a lab and has to be taken in context of all the other studies in this sub field being published.

 

In summary, we show that an S protein mutation that results in more transmissible SARS-CoV-2 also limits shedding of the S1 domain and increases S-protein incorporation into the virion. Further studies will be necessary to determine the impact of this change on the nature and severity of COVID-19.

 

https://www.scripps.edu/news-and-events/press-room/2020/20200611-choe-farzan-sars-cov-2-spike-protein.html

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