2020 Off-season gameplan

[thewookie1]

1 minute ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

If the rumors and reporting are accurate, then the internal cap is somewhere between 70-72 mill.

Give Reinhart and Cirelli 4.5 mil each this year and make it either mid or back loaded.

Waalah, you are at about 72mil

[GASabresIUFAN]

Just now, thewookie1 said:

Give Reinhart and Cirelli 4.5 mil each this year and make it either mid or back loaded.

Waalah, you are at about 72mil

They won't take it. 

 

[Curt]

4 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

If the rumors and reporting are accurate, then the internal cap is somewhere between 70-72 mill.

No.  One guy said he heard that they were “considering” an internal cap in the “low 70’s”.  That far from anything definitive.

Also, the above roster needs more kids playing?  Olofsson, Thompson, Cozens, Dahlin, Jokiharju, Borgen isn’t enough?

[thewookie1]

2 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

They won't take it. 

 

I honestly don't believe the whole low 70's thing. I believe they'd like to not spend 81.5 mil + but I don't think they will handcuff Adams

[GASabresIUFAN]

Just now, Curt said:

No.  One guy said he heard that they were “considering” an internal cap in the “low 70’s”.  That far from anything definitive.

Also, the above roster needs more kids playing?  Olofsson, Thompson, Cozens, Dahlin, Jokiharju, Borgen isn’t enough?

Olofsson is 25 and not a kid, Joker is not an internal player and already has 2 years of NHL experience and Borgen is not a exactly a kid or a starter.  The only real additions are Thompson and Cozens and Cozens is out of position.

[GASabresIUFAN]

10 minutes ago, thewookie1 said:

I honestly don't believe the whole low 70's thing. I believe they'd like to not spend 81.5 mil + but I don't think they will handcuff Adams

TP cut the management structure in half, gave all the executives a 20% hair cut and then asked for another 25% which they refused.  What in those decisions lends you to believe that he isn't going to pinch every penny throughout the organization including players?

Edited September 23, 2020 by GASabresIUFAN

[thewookie1]

1 minute ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

TP cut the management structure in half, gave all the executives a 20% hair cut and then asked for another 25% which they refused.  What in those decisions lends you to believe that he isn't going to pinch every penny throughout the organization including players?

He still wants to win and I doubt a couple million will deter him. He isn't broke, he's cost cutting. Thus if Adams tells him he needs 75mil to make a great team then I doubt he's going to say no.

[GASabresIUFAN]

I don't mean to be overly negative, but KA is going to have to pinch pennies and play serious moneypuck to get it done.  It's not impossible as he showed us with the Staal deal.  

I'll give a couple of examples of possible acquisitions that would fit the moneypuck idea and still improve the team.  1) Trade for Nick Bonino after Nash pays his signing bonus.  He would have a cap hit of 4.1, but a salary of 2.4.  Also trade for Saad from Chicago.  He has a cap hit of $6 (salary 6.5), but Chicago is willing to eat maybe half of his cap hit and salary to move him.

With these moves you would get two 20 goal scorers, fill the 2nd RW and 3rd C and get one of the best faceoff guys in the league; all for salary of 5.65.  Both have only 1 year left on their deals.  Saad will be cheap to acquire. Bonino not so much but Nash may want more cap flexability.

Edited September 23, 2020 by GASabresIUFAN

[Curt]

42 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Olofsson is 25 and not a kid, Joker is not an internal player and already has 2 years of NHL experience and Borgen is not a exactly a kid or a starter.  The only real additions are Thompson and Cozens and Cozens is out of position.

Olofsson has played 60 NHL games.  Jokiharju is 21.  Dahlin is 20.  Borgen has 0 NHL games.  Why is Jokiharju not an internal player, but Thompson is?

Your definition of kids is very strict.

43 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

TP cut the management structure in half, gave all the executives a 20% hair cut and then asked for another 25% which they refused.  What in those decisions lends you to believe that he isn't going to pinch every penny throughout the organization including players?

They rumored to be after a veteran goalie, rumored to be after Petrangelo.  Those guys would not be cheap.

I think they will take cost into consideration, and won’t spend to the cap, especially in real $, but I’m just not putting much stock in Servelli hearing from someone that they were thinking about maybe only spending low 70’s and taking that as verified fact.

[GASabresIUFAN]

Here is an alternative roster (contract cost is "( )"

Skinner Eichel Reinhart (6.5 for 5 years)

VO ($3 2 year bridge) Staal Saad (3.0/3.25 as Chicago eats 50%)

Haula (2 years 2.75) Bonino (2.75 after Nash pays his bonus) KO

Kahun ( 2 years 2.5) Cozens Thompson (.874 QO)

Dahlin Joker

McCabe Montour (2 years @ 4)

Merrill (2 years 1.75) Staal (1 year 1.75)

Ullmark (2 years 2.8) Talbot (2 years @ 2.0)

Cost with the buyouts of Hutton and Coho 72.341 (cap) and 71.941(real $)

Traded Risto and Miller for futures/prospects; some of the assets used to get Bonino.  Bonino could cost a 2nd, a 4th and a decent prospect.

Traded Davidsson and a 6th to Chicago for Saad

 

Edited September 23, 2020 by GASabresIUFAN

[GASabresIUFAN]

7 minutes ago, Curt said:

Olofsson has played 60 NHL games.  Jokiharju is 21.  Dahlin is 20.  Borgen has 0 NHL games.  Why is Jokiharju not an internal player, but Thompson is?

Your definition of kids is very strict.

They rumored to be after a veteran goalie, rumored to be after Petrangelo.  Those guys would not be cheap.

I think they will take cost into consideration, and won’t spend to the cap, especially in real $, but I’m just not putting much stock in Servelli hearing from someone that they were thinking about maybe only spending low 70’s and taking that as verified fact.

That would great, but plan for the worst and hope for the best.  The best info we have right now is a low internal cap and that makes sense given his other cost cutting measures.  Certainly the Staal trades fits with the idea as well.  We traded a younger player with a $4.5 cap hit for an older player at 3.25.  

I also don't view Thompson as a internal player

Edited September 23, 2020 by GASabresIUFAN

[Curt]

42 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

That would great, but plan for the worst and hope for the best.  The best info we have right now is a low internal cap and that makes sense given his other cost cutting measures.  Certainly the Staal trades fits with the idea as well.  We traded a younger player with a $4.5 cap hit for an older player at 3.25.  

I also don't view Thompson as a internal player

No need to plan for the worst in order to avoid consequences of being too aggressive.  We can just go with what we think is most likely.  Me being wrong has no consequences for the Sabres.

[Curt]

51 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Here is an alternative roster (contract cost is "( )"

Skinner Eichel Reinhart (6.5 for 5 years)

VO ($3 2 year bridge) Staal Saad (3.0/3.25 as Chicago eats 50%)

Haula (2 years 2.75) Bonino (2.75 after Nash pays his bonus) KO

Kahun ( 2 years 2.5) Cozens Thompson (.874 QO)

Dahlin Joker

McCabe Montour (2 years @ 4)

Merrill (2 years 1.75) Staal (1 year 1.75)

Ullmark (2 years 2.8) Talbot (2 years @ 2.0)

Cost with the buyouts of Hutton and Coho 72.341 (cap) and 71.941(real $)

Traded Risto and Miller for futures/prospects; some of the assets used to get Bonino.  Bonino could cost a 2nd, a 4th and a decent prospect.

Traded Davidsson and a 6th to Chicago for Saad

 

Where are all the kids and internal players?  😉

You think Nash trades Bonino for futures?  They need C’s, no?

[Rasmus_]

1 hour ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Here is an alternative roster (contract cost is "( )"

Skinner Eichel Reinhart (6.5 for 5 years)

VO ($3 2 year bridge) Staal Saad (3.0/3.25 as Chicago eats 50%)

Haula (2 years 2.75) Bonino (2.75 after Nash pays his bonus) KO

Kahun ( 2 years 2.5) Cozens Thompson (.874 QO)

Dahlin Joker

McCabe Montour (2 years @ 4)

Merrill (2 years 1.75) Staal (1 year 1.75)

Ullmark (2 years 2.8) Talbot (2 years @ 2.0)

Cost with the buyouts of Hutton and Coho 72.341 (cap) and 71.941(real $)

Traded Risto and Miller for futures/prospects; some of the assets used to get Bonino.  Bonino could cost a 2nd, a 4th and a decent prospect.

Traded Davidsson and a 6th to Chicago for Saad

 

My question is how you're getting them to swallow half of the contract, and getting Haula to agree to something that minimal.  Now I understand you're probably basing this on COVID killing the UFA market, which is completely possible. 

[GASabresIUFAN]

2 hours ago, Curt said:

Where are all the kids and internal players?  😉

You think Nash trades Bonino for futures?  They need C’s, no?

Nash's pipeline has been ranked in the bottom 3rd of the NHL for the last 3 years.  They need more D of all things.  Also center isn't their prime need.  They have Johansen, Duchene, and Turris (yes a way overpaid bottom 6 center at this point) who they are stuck with as well as guys like Sissons, Jarnkrok who can play center and center is their deepest position in their pipeline.  That said they don't have to make any moves if I read their cap right, but I'm also not sure they want to spend to the cap to compete.  I think if we put the right package together Bonino could be had.

1 hour ago, TheCerebral1 said:

My question is how you're getting them to swallow half of the contract, and getting Haula to agree to something that minimal.  Now I understand you're probably basing this on COVID killing the UFA market, which is completely possible. 

I think the UFA market is going to stink this year for the players.  Many teams are going the budget route because of attendance and other uncertainties into next season.  There are also a good number of quality players like or better then Haula on the market.  Guys like Granlund, C Smith, Toffoli, Ennis (who had 37 pts last year), Soderberg, Fast or Namestnikov. to name a few. 

I'm not married to Haula, but I do like that he play LW & C and is good in the faceoff Circle.  If you got both Bonino and Haula, you have great insurance if Cozens isn't ready or an injury strikes in the middle.

Also the Bjugstad deal showed the value of overpriced players in this current environment. Pitt ate 50%. While Saad is much more productive then Bjugstad, he is now at 20 goal 35 pt guy.  The COVID market value for such a player is probably about 100K per point.  That puts his contract at about 3.5 mill if he were a FA.; thus if Chicago wants to move him they are going to have to eat 2-3 mill of his contract. 

Edited September 23, 2020 by GASabresIUFAN

[Curt]

2 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Also the Bjugstad deal showed the value of overpriced players in this current environment. Pitt ate 50%. While Saad is much more productive then Bjugstad, he is now at 20 goal 35 pt guy.  The COVID market value for such a player is probably about 100K per point.  That puts his contract at about 3.5 mill if he were a FA.; thus if Chicago wants to move him they are going to have to eat 2-3 mill of his contract. 

I think if you look at the numbers and rate of production, he is more like 45-50 points.  Just 2017-18 was a bad year.

[thewookie1]

I just don’t think Buffalo makes a good partner with Chicago. No interest in Strome, and Saad will likely have multiple suitors. We aren’t going to get real value in trading a 2nd a prospect for a year of Saad.

 

As for Cozens I have him at RW since he’s a righty and young hence start him on the wing and let him work his way into a center role. Ideally you pair him with Staal and Kahun so even when Cozens gains enough confidence; the line can stay with the same 3 guys.

 

Adams definitely knows how to work with the Pegulas and I don’t think his supposed low 70s salary point is a impenetrable wall. If he goes, “I’ve acquired a great young centerman in Cirelli and need 6 mil per year for his contract” I highly doubt they will scoff at it. They may be tone deaf but they do want to win.

[Thorny]

10 hours ago, thewookie1 said:

How does this look

https://www.capfriendly.com/forums/thread/369354

I like the team, though not Thompson in the top 6, but agree with Curt that your RFA's are too low. And the team is already at 77.5.

9 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

You are also likely $5 mill over the internal cap.  We also need to stop trying to solve all our problems with outside talent.  We need to let some of the kids play.  This is the same failed TM approach.  

Our core must be internal talent supplemented by a few trades or FA signings.  That's the only way this works long-term.  We also need to stop trying to convert our centers into wingers.  Cozen's future here is at center.  We don't need to shoe horn him into a RW slot.  If he isn't ready to play NHL center, then he goes back to Jrs. 

I disagree with all of this I think. Or whatever it was Luke said in TLJ. 

[Thorny]

7 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Here is an alternative roster (contract cost is "( )"

Skinner Eichel Reinhart (6.5 for 5 years)

VO ($3 2 year bridge) Staal Saad (3.0/3.25 as Chicago eats 50%)

Haula (2 years 2.75) Bonino (2.75 after Nash pays his bonus) KO

Kahun ( 2 years 2.5) Cozens Thompson (.874 QO)

Dahlin Joker

McCabe Montour (2 years @ 4)

Merrill (2 years 1.75) Staal (1 year 1.75)

Ullmark (2 years 2.8) Talbot (2 years @ 2.0)

Cost with the buyouts of Hutton and Coho 72.341 (cap) and 71.941(real $)

Traded Risto and Miller for futures/prospects; some of the assets used to get Bonino.  Bonino could cost a 2nd, a 4th and a decent prospect.

Traded Davidsson and a 6th to Chicago for Saad

 

And this is a good roster. 

So there's something lost in translation but in the end I think we both look at that lineup rather positively. 

[Brawndo]

3 hours ago, thewookie1 said:

I just don’t think Buffalo makes a good partner with Chicago. No interest in Strome, and Saad will likely have multiple suitors. We aren’t going to get real value in trading a 2nd a prospect for a year of Saad.

 

As for Cozens I have him at RW since he’s a righty and young hence start him on the wing and let him work his way into a center role. Ideally you pair him with Staal and Kahun so even when Cozens gains enough confidence; the line can stay with the same 3 guys.

 

Adams definitely knows how to work with the Pegulas and I don’t think his supposed low 70s salary point is a impenetrable wall. If he goes, “I’ve acquired a great young centerman in Cirelli and need 6 mil per year for his contract” I highly doubt they will scoff at it. They may be tone deaf but they do want to win.

Starting Cozens as a RW on the 2nd or 3rd Line would be better for his development as you mentioned, similar to How Chicago brought along Dach. 
 

Chicago is looking for a RHD so Miller or Montour would probably be the ask for Saad 

 

And I agree with the premise that Pegula would go above 75 Million if Adams had a worthwhile plan in mind 

[GASabresIUFAN]

1 hour ago, Thorny said:

And this is a good roster. 

So there's something lost in translation but in the end I think we both look at that lineup rather positively. 

My roster suggestion is just an approach to this off-season given the internal cap I firmly believe will be in place regardless of whether or not TP or KA state to the media that they are now a budget team.  I do agree with the idea that if the team shows promise 2/3 through next season, I can see TP loosening the purse strings to help supplement the roster for a playoff run.

I also attempted to keep most of the contracts to 1-2 years to give KA flexibility long-term and allow for someone like Mitts to earn a callup and then  stick with the team.

This doesn't change my long-term belief that we need to build from within.  This is another reason for the short contracts.  I want non-core vets to be replaced by maturing kids.  

Edited September 24, 2020 by GASabresIUFAN

[Thorny]

1 minute ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

My roster suggestion is just an approach to this off-season given the internal cap I firmly believe will be in place regardless of whether or not TP or KA state to the media that they are now a budget team.  I do agree with the idea that if the team shows promise 2/3 through next season, I can see TP loosening the purse strings to help supplement the roster for a playoff run.

I also attempted to keep most of the contracts to 1-2 years to give KA flexibility long-term and allow for someone like Mitts to earn a callup and then  stick with the team.

This doesn't change my long-term belief that we need to build from within.  This is another reason for the short contracts.  I want non-core vets to be replaced by maturing kids.  

Yep, short term vets are totally good by me. If we draft well, placeholders are fine, they just have to be GOOD placeholders. Too often it's just been open roster spots instead of obstacles in the form of capable vets that can help us win now and help facilitate winning later.

[thewookie1]

3 hours ago, Thorny said:

I like the team, though not Thompson in the top 6, but agree with Curt that your RFA's are too low. And the team is already at 77.5.

Technically you are confusing Cap Hit with Salary. But oddly all my specific targets with salary savings end up almost perfectly matching Skinner's +1mil

Stupid Skinner making 10mil.

 

At the end of the day though we need at least that much to be a playoff team. 

I have no interest in just sticking a bunch more bandaids on the roster and watching the team start well and then break the bandage and bleed out again.

 

11 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Here is an alternative roster (contract cost is "( )"

Skinner Eichel Reinhart (6.5 for 5 years)

VO ($3 2 year bridge) Staal Saad (3.0/3.25 as Chicago eats 50%)

Haula (2 years 2.75) Bonino (2.75 after Nash pays his bonus) KO

Kahun ( 2 years 2.5) Cozens Thompson (.874 QO)

Dahlin Joker

McCabe Montour (2 years @ 4)

Merrill (2 years 1.75) Staal (1 year 1.75)

Ullmark (2 years 2.8) Talbot (2 years @ 2.0)

Cost with the buyouts of Hutton and Coho 72.341 (cap) and 71.941(real $)

Traded Risto and Miller for futures/prospects; some of the assets used to get Bonino.  Bonino could cost a 2nd, a 4th and a decent prospect.

Traded Davidsson and a 6th to Chicago for Saad

 

For instance your team here won't make the playoffs barring Staal putting up 35 goals. The D is very weak and you bought out Hutton which is just a waste of time. If not moved for Fluery just bury him in the minors and save the cap for next year.

I highly doubt Chicago trades Saad at 50% retention so cheaply.

Bonino, in my opinion, isn't worth giving that much up for so he can be our 3C.

 

 

Furthermore, even if Fleury were to drag the salary up into the 76mil range I'd guess the Pegulas would be fine with it since they are supposedly interested in Petrangelo because he's a good person and player which Fleury certainly is to a degree. Plus he played in Pittsburgh when they'd of been watching their games prior to buying the team.

12 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Certainly the Staal trades fits with the idea as well.  We traded a younger player with a $4.5 cap hit for an older player at 3.25.  

I really don't see it that way at all, an added benefit perhaps, but we arguably got the better player regardless of his age. Both are only on 1 year deals and Staal is a true center versus Johansson who is more of a winger. It would be a different story if we traded Johansson for another similar player but older and cheaper. 

 

I do agree we need some internal growth but I have zero interest in praying for Cozens, to a lesser degree Mitts, or some other future prospect can reach 2C levels after one year. I'd go full forecheck on getting Cirelli and if we can't then I'd go after Danault; if they demand an absurd cost then look at Tierney. Tierney would sort of be my beta plan after Cirelli as he'd be cheaper and more of short term 2C/later 3C type of player.

 

Marc Staal would be a perfect depth Dman candidate if he bought out by the Rangers. A sub-million contract should suffice due to his buyout paycheck. Plus Carolina is flooded with dmen and we have his other brother. 

[thewookie1]

Technically similar money to last time at 77mil cap but without the Fleury move we'd be at about 74mil salary.

https://www.capfriendly.com/armchair-gm/team/1947808

[irregularly irregular]

9 minutes ago, thewookie1 said:

Technically similar money to last time at 77mil cap but without the Fleury move we'd be at about 74mil salary.

https://www.capfriendly.com/armchair-gm/team/1947808

Compared to your previous effort:

Centers = better

D pairings = better

GT = same with MAF

Youngsters gonna have to carry their fair share of the water for the team to be in the playoffs,  but I like it.