2020 Off-season gameplan

[Eleven]

2 hours ago, kas23 said:

but one thing is guaranteed. It will produce a decent asset

No, that is not guaranteed.  Look at how many people regard the eighth-overall picks already on the team or already traded (Nylander, Ristolainen, Mittelstadt).  And then look at Derrick Pouliot, Alexander Burmistrov, and others.  Not exactly a guarantee. Even first overall isn't guaranteed, as Alexandre Daigle might remind you, or third (Gratton, same draft) or fifth (Rob Niedermayer, same draft).  You know what IS guaranteed?  An actual NHL player.

[sabresparaavida]

2 minutes ago, Eleven said:

No, that is not guaranteed.  Look at how many people regard the eighth-overall picks already on the team or already traded (Nylander, Ristolainen, Mittelstadt).  And then look at Derrick Pouliot, Alexander Burmistrov, and others.  Not exactly a guarantee. Even first overall isn't guaranteed, as Alexandre Daigle might remind you, or third (Gratton, same draft) or fifth (Rob Niedermayer, same draft).  You know what IS guaranteed?  An actual NHL player.

It isn’t guaranteed they will become NHL players, but it is almost guaranteed they will become a asset, though how long that lasts is up in the air. Right now, Mittelstadt is an asset, and he may be a bust. A couple years ago, he was a high value asset. It all depends on timing.

[Eleven]

7 minutes ago, sabresparaavida said:

It isn’t guaranteed they will become NHL players, but it is almost guaranteed they will become a asset, though how long that lasts is up in the air. Right now, Mittelstadt is an asset, and he may be a bust. A couple years ago, he was a high value asset. It all depends on timing.

A single dollar is an asset.  (Which can be traded for Ray Sheppard.)

A proven player is a bigger asset.

Let's not put form over substance here.  A "decent asset" is not "guaranteed" with pick 8.

Edited August 23, 2020 by Eleven

[LGR4GM]

9 hours ago, Eleven said:

A single dollar is an asset.  (Which can be traded for Ray Sheppard.)

A proven player is a bigger asset.

Let's not put form over substance here.  A "decent asset" is not "guaranteed" with pick 8.

I'll say this, if you can't get a decent asset in this specific draft with 8th overall, we have a major problem that trades ain't gonna fix. 

[Thorny]

On 8/22/2020 at 11:12 AM, WildCard said:

Monahan may not be a 1C on a Cup team but come on guys, he can definitely be a 2C. 

I dunno...is he good enough for this team? Is he better than our best C addition of the recent few years past, Curtis Lazar? Surely we'd be a playoff team with the likes of Monahan in a 2C role but I know just getting in means nothing..

[Thorny]

22 hours ago, Eleven said:

In a second.

The eighth pick isn't worth the eighth pick with some of the dreams people have here.  It is possible, but unlikely, that the pick turns out to be as good as Monahan.

Let alone the added wait time which is crucial 

[Thorny]

19 hours ago, kas23 said:

The eight pick will unlikely end up as good as Monahan, but one thing is guaranteed. It will produce a decent asset that will have zero affect on a team’s salary cap. I don’t think that’s something to be underestimated in these coming years. 

What's more valuable, the added cap relief in the coming years, or adhering to a timeline that keeps our franchise player here? 

We are literally siting here talking about what good teams talk about, the need to supplement your successful roster with cheap ELC talent. We don't even HAVE A TEAM YET. 

Adding an actual 2C talent is orders of magnitude more important than drafting a player at 8. 

Edited August 23, 2020 by Thorny

[Marvin]

1 hour ago, Thorny said:

What's more valuable, the added cap relief in the coming years, or adhering to a timeline that keeps our franchise player here? 

We are literally siting here talking about what good teams talk about, the need to supplement your successful roster with cheap ELC talent. We don't even HAVE A TEAM YET. 

Adding an actual 2C talent is orders of magnitude more important than drafting a player at 8. 

This is where I am, so let's do a thought experiment.  For argument's sake, let us assume the price was really steep and we overpaid: Monahan for #8, Reinhart, and Olofsson.  I will fill the resultant holes internally and not use Larsson, Girgensons, or Vesey (our top-performing bottom-6 players)  to see what our baseline is.  I will round all salaries upward to millions and a decimal place to get an over-estimate of the projected salaries.

These preconditions lead to the following beginning roster:

Skinner (9.0) - Eichel (10.0) - Ruotsalainen (1.0)

Johansson (4.5) - Monahan (6.5) - Kahun (1.0)

Mittlestadt (1.0) - Cozens (1.0) - Thompson (1.0)

Asplund (1.0) - Lazar (1.0) - Okposo (6.0)

12 F -> 43.0

Dahlin (1.0) - Jokiharu (1.0)

McCabe (2.9) - Miller (3.9)

Montour (3.4) - Ristolainen (5.4)

6 D -> 17.6

Ullmark (projecting 5.0)

Hutton (2.8)

2 G -> 7.8

Total: 68.4 + adjustments

Here's what I see:

• We have over $10M in cap room before we even get off the ground.
• At least 1 of Montour, Ristolainen, and Miller is gone, so there should be money to upgrade somewhere aside from the cap space.
• The top line should score a bunch.
• The 2nd line isn't horrible.
• The 3rd line should get favourable match-ups.
• I am not reliant on the 4th line, so we are not going to have long stretches of multiple consecutive games of them being the 2nd best line we have.

IMHO, that heavy price is worth it.  We still would have enough room to do one or more of:

• Add a good goaltender
• Get better wingers  (I think teams are more likely to dump wingers for the next couple of years, so I think the resulting holes are easier to fill.)
• Rebalance the type of defencemen we have
• Improve the bottom of the roster (either adding on top or at the bottom)

As painful as my proposal is, I think it is worth doing.  I doubt anyone else will cough up that much; the only question is who offers and immediate replacement in a hockey trade of centres.

Edited August 23, 2020 by Marvin, Sabres Fan

[Thorny]

^ My issue with the above line up is that, with the Monahan deal you propose, we are shipping out 2 real NHL forwards for 1. I'm looking for a deal where we add more NHL forwards than give up, or break even but add a C. I'm all about trading futures things like draft picks, fledgling prospects and some D.

[freester]

49 minutes ago, Marvin, Sabres Fan said:

This is where I am, so let's do a thought experiment.  For argument's sake, let us assume the price was really steep and we overpaid: Monahan for #8, Reinhart, and Olofsson.  I will fill the resultant holes internally and not use Larsson, Girgensons, or Vesey (our top-performing bottom-6 players)  to see what our baseline is.  I will round all salaries upward to millions and a decimal place to get an over-estimate of the projected salaries.

These preconditions lead to the following beginning roster:

Skinner (9.0) - Eichel (10.0) - Ruotsalainen (1.0)

Johansson (4.5) - Monahan (6.5) - Kahun (1.0)

Mittlestadt (1.0) - Cozens (1.0) - Thompson (1.0)

Asplund (1.0) - Lazar (1.0) - Okposo (6.0)

12 F -> 43.0

Dahlin (1.0) - Jokiharu (1.0)

McCabe (2.9) - Miller (3.9)

Montour (3.4) - Ristolainen (5.4)

6 D -> 17.6

Ullmark (projecting 5.0)

Hutton (2.8)

2 G -> 7.8

Total: 68.4 + adjustments

Here's what I see:

• We have over $10M in cap room before we even get off the ground.
• At least 1 of Montour, Ristolainen, and Miller is gone, so there should be money to upgrade somewhere aside from the cap space.
• The top line should score a bunch.
• The 2nd line isn't horrible.
• The 3rd line should get favourable match-ups.
• I am not reliant on the 4th line, so we are not going to have long stretches of multiple consecutive games of them being the 2nd best line we have.

IMHO, that heavy price is worth it.  We still would have enough room to do one or more of:

• Add a good goaltender
• Get better wingers  (I think teams are more likely to dump wingers for the next couple of years, so I think the resulting holes are easier to fill.)
• Rebalance the type of defencemen we have
• Improve the bottom of the roster (either adding on top or at the bottom)

As painful as my proposal is, I think it is worth doing.  I doubt anyone else will cough up that much; the only question is who offers and immediate replacement in a hockey trade of centres.

Thai is giving up way too much. Your 3rd line as listed would be the worst in the league. Playing Ruuostolainen on the top line is absurd. He will get blown up.  This lineup will have us back in the lottery as you have actually reduced the number of top 6 forwards which we were lacking. 

[LGR4GM]

8 minutes ago, freester said:

Thai is giving up way too much. Your 3rd line as listed would be the worst in the league. Playing Ruuostolainen on the top line is absurd. He will get blown up.  This lineup will have us back in the lottery as you have actually reduced the number of top 6 forwards which we were lacking. 

Idk, his Liiga stuff is pretty decent so he might be able to hold his own. He's a C/LW though so not sure where we play him. I would be more concerned playing him on his off wing then playing him on line 1 as he adjusts to the NHL. I wonder if he goes to the AHL for a couple months. 

[Thorny]

16 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

Idk, his Liiga stuff is pretty decent so he might be able to hold his own. He's a C/LW though so not sure where we play him. I would be more concerned playing him on his off wing then playing him on line 1 as he adjusts to the NHL. I wonder if he goes to the AHL for a couple months. 

A left shot? Shocker.

Botterill really was sitting there thinking he fulfilled his entire centre, right shot, and CHL quota all by bringing in Lazar. 

Edited August 23, 2020 by Thorny

[Marvin]

49 minutes ago, freester said:

Thai is giving up way too much. Your 3rd line as listed would be the worst in the league. Playing Ruuostolainen on the top line is absurd. He will get blown up.  This lineup will have us back in the lottery as you have actually reduced the number of top 6 forwards which we were lacking. 

I expect #8 and either Reinhart or Olofsson are a bare minimum opening offer.   No one except Buffalo gives up #2C's for a smattering of picks, depth, and garbage.

One other thing: if you are a cap-strapped team, are you selling your #2 Centres or #2 Wingers?  I expect the Sabres to be able to pick up some decent wingers on the cheap: Move and RD and I could have about $18M to deal with (I personally would move Risto and then rebalance the toughness and smarts with everything else.)

 

Edited August 23, 2020 by Marvin, Sabres Fan

[Taro T]

On 8/22/2020 at 12:12 PM, WildCard said:

Monahan may not be a 1C on a Cup team but come on guys, he can definitely be a 2C. 

Yep.  Especially if Adams can get Larsson & Girgensons back, Monahan is an ideal 2C and gives the Sabres a 1C, 2C, & defensive C all slotted properly.

It allows Cozens to get protected minutes starting out & also allows the Sabres to use Cozens on Eichel's RW for a couple of years after this one until Monahan loses a step & slides to a very good 3rd offensive C & then he slides into 2C (or maybe even Mittelstadt has undergone the Couturier transformation ? ).

Will cost more than we'd like it to cost, but he'd be a great addition.

[Gabrielor]

43 minutes ago, Taro T said:

Yep.  Especially if Adams can get Larsson & Girgensons back, Monahan is an ideal 2C and gives the Sabres a 1C, 2C, & defensive C all slotted properly.

It allows Cozens to get protected minutes starting out & also allows the Sabres to use Cozens on Eichel's RW for a couple of years after this one until Monahan loses a step & slides to a very good 3rd offensive C & then he slides into 2C (or maybe even Mittelstadt has undergone the Couturier transformation ? ).

Will cost more than we'd like it to cost, but he'd be a great addition.

Agreed, Monahan + LG return is a good plan, if he can execute it.

guy Eichel guy    -  true 1st line, will face opponent's best d

guy Monahan guy  - offensive deployment; must feast

LOG - deploy vs opponent's best o

Mojo remainder line - you get another defensive center here (Copp) and we're in business! balanced deployment

 

Could be our deepest forward comp since late 2000s.

Edited August 24, 2020 by Gabrielor

[kas23]

22 hours ago, Eleven said:

No, that is not guaranteed.  Look at how many people regard the eighth-overall picks already on the team or already traded (Nylander, Ristolainen, Mittelstadt).  And then look at Derrick Pouliot, Alexander Burmistrov, and others.  Not exactly a guarantee. Even first overall isn't guaranteed, as Alexandre Daigle might remind you, or third (Gratton, same draft) or fifth (Rob Niedermayer, same draft).  You know what IS guaranteed?  An actual NHL player.

The better word would’ve been a decent prospect. I never specified how long that pick would be considered a decent “asset” though, but probably about 2-3 years (before the fans get out the torches and pitchforks). Nevertheless, it doesn’t matter who is picked at #8, you’ll get an asset that won’t hit your cap. Even that is an assumption though. Who knows, you may strike gold and he may land on the active roster at some point during the season. 

[kas23]

5 hours ago, Thorny said:

What's more valuable, the added cap relief in the coming years, or adhering to a timeline that keeps our franchise player here? 

We are literally siting here talking about what good teams talk about, the need to supplement your successful roster with cheap ELC talent. We don't even HAVE A TEAM YET. 

Adding an actual 2C talent is orders of magnitude more important than drafting a player at 8. 

I wrote that to describe why the pick would be desirable to another team in a trade, not why it would be desirable for the Sabres to keep. I’m all for moving it to a team with cap problems for this very reason. 

[thewookie1]

4 hours ago, Marvin, Sabres Fan said:

I expect #8 and either Reinhart or Olofsson are a bare minimum opening offer.   No one except Buffalo gives up #2C's for a smattering of picks, depth, and garbage.

One other thing: if you are a cap-strapped team, are you selling your #2 Centres or #2 Wingers?  I expect the Sabres to be able to pick up some decent wingers on the cheap: Move and RD and I could have about $18M to deal with (I personally would move Risto and then rebalance the toughness and smarts with everything else.)

 

I highly doubt that Reinhart + #8 will be needed to get Monahan.

If that's what they want for him then we'd be better off taking Bozak off the Blue's hand or something like that. I'm not going to cut off my arms to get a nose.

[Broken Ankles]

2 hours ago, thewookie1 said:

I highly doubt that Reinhart + #8 will be needed to get Monahan.

If that's what they want for him then we'd be better off taking Bozak off the Blue's hand or something like that. I'm not going to cut off my arms to get a nose.

Agree on both cost to obtain Monahan and alternatives that could be had for less.   It’s interesting that Sabres rumors are tied to Calgary and Minnesota when neither have Cap issues and in theory less likely to trade.  If StL is keeping Pietrangelo they need to shed serious cap. 

[Curt]

13 hours ago, Marvin, Sabres Fan said:

This is where I am, so let's do a thought experiment.  For argument's sake, let us assume the price was really steep and we overpaid: Monahan for #8, Reinhart, and Olofsson.  I will fill the resultant holes internally and not use Larsson, Girgensons, or Vesey (our top-performing bottom-6 players)  to see what our baseline is.  I will round all salaries upward to millions and a decimal place to get an over-estimate of the projected salaries.

These preconditions lead to the following beginning roster:

Skinner (9.0) - Eichel (10.0) - Ruotsalainen (1.0)

Johansson (4.5) - Monahan (6.5) - Kahun (1.0)

Mittlestadt (1.0) - Cozens (1.0) - Thompson (1.0)

Asplund (1.0) - Lazar (1.0) - Okposo (6.0)

12 F -> 43.0

Dahlin (1.0) - Jokiharu (1.0)

McCabe (2.9) - Miller (3.9)

Montour (3.4) - Ristolainen (5.4)

6 D -> 17.6

Ullmark (projecting 5.0)

Hutton (2.8)

2 G -> 7.8

Total: 68.4 + adjustments

Here's what I see:

• We have over $10M in cap room before we even get off the ground.
• At least 1 of Montour, Ristolainen, and Miller is gone, so there should be money to upgrade somewhere aside from the cap space.
• The top line should score a bunch.
• The 2nd line isn't horrible.
• The 3rd line should get favourable match-ups.
• I am not reliant on the 4th line, so we are not going to have long stretches of multiple consecutive games of them being the 2nd best line we have.

IMHO, that heavy price is worth it.  We still would have enough room to do one or more of:

• Add a good goaltender
• Get better wingers  (I think teams are more likely to dump wingers for the next couple of years, so I think the resulting holes are easier to fill.)
• Rebalance the type of defencemen we have
• Improve the bottom of the roster (either adding on top or at the bottom)

As painful as my proposal is, I think it is worth doing.  I doubt anyone else will cough up that much; the only question is who offers and immediate replacement in a hockey trade of centres.

That trade would be unforgivably stupid for a Sabres GM to execute.  That resulting lineup would not be good.

Routsalainen, Johansson, and Kahun all as top 6 wings is dubious, that 3rd line would probably be horrible.  There is no line to match up against the oppositions top lines in D situations.  You don’t have $10M in space, you have about $7M.  

Are you going to be able to acquire 3 additional top 6 wings and upgrade the goaltending???  As it stands, that’s not a playoff team.

Edited August 24, 2020 by Curt

[LGR4GM]

1 hour ago, Curt said:

That trade would be unforgivably stupid for a Sabres GM to execute.  That resulting lineup would not be good.

Routsalainen, Johansson, and Kahun all as top 6 wings is dubious, that 3rd line would probably be horrible.  There is no line to match up against the oppositions top lines in D situations.  You don’t have $10M in space, you have about $7M.  

Are you going to be able to acquire 3 additional top 6 wings and upgrade the goaltending???  As it stands, that’s not a playoff team.

Especially considering Reinhart outproduced Monahan last season. More points and a better corsi but we have add another top 6 winger AND a top 10 pick in a solid draft? I would probably boycott the Sabres entirely if that trade were executed. 

[Gabrielor]

38 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

Especially considering Reinhart outproduced Monahan last season. More points and a better corsi but we have add another top 6 winger AND a top 10 pick in a solid draft? I would probably boycott the Sabres entirely if that trade were executed. 

I wouldn't do 8+Reinhart for Monahan, let alone add Olofsson...

Reinhart for Monahan is a deal I begrudgingly do, because we need the center, and Reinhart won't get the chance to be one here for whatever reason.

[MakeSabresGrr8Again]

2 hours ago, Gabrielor said:

I wouldn't do 8+Reinhart for Monahan, let alone add Olofsson...

Reinhart for Monahan is a deal I begrudgingly do, because we need the center, and Reinhart won't get the chance to be one here for whatever reason.

I wonder how this could effect Jack. Sam is the only constant he's had and they seem to get along good. Could that be Jack's breaking point?

[Gabrielor]

12 minutes ago, MakeSabresGrr8Again said:

I wonder how this could effect Jack. Sam is the only constant he's had and they seem to get along good. Could that be Jack's breaking point?

I imagine any Reinhart trade scenario would be sad for Jack, but so was Kane, Moulson, and Bogosian.

If hypothetically Monhahan and Gaudreau are coming back, Gaudreau particularly having played with him on Team NA, he'll rebound pretty fast.

 

I'm sure Jack wants some help from the office, and doesn't want to hear talk about futures (neither do the fans right now). I'm also pretty confident that Jack wants to win here, because he'll get a lion's share of the credit, and he's definitely a guy who attacks a challenge. He just wants guys around him willing to battle ("We need veteran toughness").

 

Wayne Simmonds wasn't an add people who follow analytics enjoyed, but I thought he was the perfect add to morale, and they need to do that again this off season.

[LGR4GM]

1 hour ago, Gabrielor said:

I imagine any Reinhart trade scenario would be sad for Jack, but so was Kane, Moulson, and Bogosian.

If hypothetically Monhahan and Gaudreau are coming back, Gaudreau particularly having played with him on Team NA, he'll rebound pretty fast.

 

I'm sure Jack wants some help from the office, and doesn't want to hear talk about futures (neither do the fans right now). I'm also pretty confident that Jack wants to win here, because he'll get a lion's share of the credit, and he's definitely a guy who attacks a challenge. He just wants guys around him willing to battle ("We need veteran toughness").

 

Wayne Simmonds wasn't an add people who follow analytics enjoyed, but I thought he was the perfect add to morale, and they need to do that again this off season.

Adding overpriced 3/4 line vets doesn't add morale, it just adds more players who don't produce to a team that is short on production. 

If they had added Pavelski, sure I would agree but going out and adding a vet to add a vet because "morale" is the exact same logic that gets you Steve Ott, Dalton Smith, etc... and it doesn't change anything.