2020 Off-season gameplan

[SwampD]

Cirelli is JAG.

[Shootica]

Well I picked a bad time to criticize Cirelli...

That didn't look pretty. Hope the kid is alright.

[Brawndo]

Chris Snow the Calgary AGM is the member of the Flames Front Office who convinced Burke not to trade for Risto 

[nfreeman]

2 hours ago, Huckleberry said:

Also with a possible internal salary cap of 70 million.    Be prepared that our 8OA (Holtz / Rossi / lundell ) + Cozens + Ruotsolainen will all be in the line up.

 

2 hours ago, Gabrielor said:

low 70s was the report, not necessarily exactly 70. I also have yet to hear a report about a budget that didn't originate from a Toronto media dipshit, so I'll fully believe when I see the opening night roster. 

 

I do expect Cozens, Ruotsalainen, Thompson, and Lazar to make the team though, and all cost < 1 mil.

I think it's less than 10% likely that 8OA makes the Sabres' roster.  Ruotsie is an interesting one -- it would be great if he made it, but I think it's at least 80% likely that he starts in Rochester and only comes to Buffalo if he tears up the A.

[Thorny]

Olofsson - Eichel - Reinhart

Skinner - Staal - Fast (UFA, $3m)

Kahun - Copp* - Cozens 

Girgensons - Lazar - Okposo

*Montour and something to WPG

- - - 

Playoff forwards I think.

Edited September 18, 2020 by Thorny

[GASabresIUFAN]

How GMKA approaches the rest of the off-season will give us a much better picture on whether management actually thinks any of the kids are ready.  

The internal candidates forwards who are near NHL ready include Cozens, Mittelstadt, Thompson, Routsalainen, Asplund and maybe our 8th overall pick but none is a sure thing.

1) Cozens - has never played a minute of pro hockey

2) Mittelstadt - failed to make an impact in 31 NHL games last season and was good but not dominate in the AHL.

3) Thompson - Looked to be ready, but is coming off a significant injury.

4) Routsalainen - has never played a minute of NA hockey

5) Asplund - was un-impressive in his callups last season

I personally don't think he can make the cap work without plugging in at least two of the kids, maybe 3.  That said if he re-signs Larsson and Lazar, I think there is good reason to think he doesn't believe the centers (Cozens, Mitts and or Asplund) are ready.

I was watching Moneyball yesterday and obviously with an internal cap, the Sabres are going to need to play Moneypuck.  Staal was the first step in that direction.  While Billy Beane was looking to create runs and focusing on OBS (in the movie), we are looking to both create goals and prevent goals.  Our goal should be to build a team that can be at least a plus 25 in goal differential next season.

Simply put teams with a positive goal differential make the playoffs and teams with a negative differential don't.  There are a couple exceptions here and there, but not many.  A +25 team always makes the playoffs and is usually in a good position to not worry about the wildcard slots.

Last season we were playoff competitive in GA, but no where near competitive on offense.  The PP was mediocre (Staal will help there) and the PK awful despite having Larsson.  Fix the special teams and we probably erase our -22 goal differential from last year.  The next step is scoring more goals.  Staal helps 5 on 5.  A full season of VO likely helps as well as does a full season of Kahun.  Skinner should rebound now that he is guaranteed playing with a capable center.  Still we need more depth scoring.  

We tried 13 guys who played in our bottom 6.  They scored a total of 63 goals (56 -  5 on 5).  Only Casey Mittelstadt, KO, Lazar, and Asplund are under contract or are RFAs.  Everyone else is a UFA or already gone.  This gives KA a real opportunity to remake this bottom 6 and make it more effective.  

What would I do now to stay internal cap compliant and find more scoring.

I think the top 6 forwards are now set (assuming the RFAs are re-signed)  Skinner Eichel Reinhart; VO Staal and Kahun (Cost 34.75)

There is only 1 slot allocated in the bottom 6 and that is KO's but is he a 3 RW or 4 RW?  (Cost so far 6 mill)

I'm trading Risto and Miller on Defense and re-signing Montour for $4 mill.  This gives me a top 4 D of Montour, McCabe, Joker and Dahlin.  (Cost 8.7 mill)

I'm re-signing Ullmark ($3 mill), cutting Hutton (costing 1.65).  Then sign Cam Talbot for $2 mill.  Net Goalie cost 6.65.

This puts me at 13 players for 56.1 million; leaving about 15 mill for 9 (6F & 3D) players.  Lazar, Cozens (or Mitts) and Thompson likely grab 3 of the 6 forward jobs and Borgen the 7th D (Cost about 3.4 mill).  That leaves 11.6 mill to be spent on 5 players.  Hopefully KA can play some money puck and get needed players on decent contracts for Miller and RIstolainen or dump both guys for futures or near ready prospects to bolster our pipeline. 

Under this scenario, we could re-sign Larsson for the 4th C role at 2.8

Value signings:  Riley Sheahan for 3 or 4 LW.  My guess is we can get him for the vet minimum, he is on the right side of 30 in the right situation he could be a 25-30 pt player.  Jon Merrill LD.  Also on the right side of 30, he has size and is a solid 2 way D.  Kind of a cheaper McCabe.  My guess is Merrill will cost in the 1.5 range.

This leaves 7.3 mill to get two vets to upgrade the team.  

Right now my team looks like this

Skinner Eichel Reinhart

Vo Staal Kahun 

????? Cozens Thompson

Sheahan Larsson KO

Lazar

Dahlin Jokiharju

McCabe Montour

Merrill   ??????

Borgen

Ullmark Talbot

I can't seem to find the right $2 mill RHD to fill out the 3rd pairing, but I have an idea for the 2RW/3 LW.  Alex Galchenyuk.  This guy can play anywhere, can score in this league but desperately needs a fresh start.  I guess the Wild could try to keep him as part of their youth movement, but maybe he is look for a better opportunity.  Maybe RK is the right coach to get the most out of this guy.  I'd sign him for a 1 year 3 mill deal and give him a chance to beat out Kahun for the 2 RW or take the pressure off and let him start at 3 LW.  I also wonder what Edm wants for Puljujarvi.  I'd love to see how he does with Staal as his center.

 

 

 

Edited September 18, 2020 by GASabresIUFAN

[Huckleberry]

8 hours ago, nfreeman said:

 

I think it's less than 10% likely that 8OA makes the Sabres' roster.  Ruotsie is an interesting one -- it would be great if he made it, but I think it's at least 80% likely that he starts in Rochester and only comes to Buffalo if he tears up the A.

For now I'm just under the assumption there will be no AHL season, that combined with internal salary caps alot of borderline young players will get a shot faster next year.

[Gabrielor]

8 hours ago, nfreeman said:

 

I think it's less than 10% likely that 8OA makes the Sabres' roster.  Ruotsie is an interesting one -- it would be great if he made it, but I think it's at least 80% likely that he starts in Rochester and only comes to Buffalo if he tears up the A.

Based on everything I've seen/heard, Ruotsalainen looks ready for the NHL in exactly the same way Pilut did, when he should've been brought directly up.

If we do want to save cash on the 4th line, then this move is obvious.

Edited September 18, 2020 by Gabrielor

[Taro T]

8 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

How GMKA approaches the rest of the off-season will give us a much better picture on whether management actually thinks any of the kids are ready.  

The internal candidates forwards who are near NHL ready include Cozens, Mittelstadt, Thompson, Routsalainen, Asplund and maybe our 8th overall pick but none is a sure thing.

1) Cozens - has never played a minute of pro hockey

2) Mittelstadt - failed to make an impact in 31 NHL games last season and was good but not dominate in the AHL.

3) Thompson - Looked to be ready, but is coming off a significant injury.

4) Routsalainen - has never played a minute of NA hockey

5) Asplund - was un-impressive in his callups last season

I personally don't think he can make the cap work without plugging in at least two of the kids, maybe 3.  That said if he re-signs Larsson and Lazar, I think there is good reason to think he doesn't believe the centers (Cozens, Mitts and or Asplund) are ready.

I was watching Moneyball yesterday and obviously with an internal cap, the Sabres are going to need to play Moneypuck.  Staal was the first step in that direction.  While Billy Beane was looking to create runs and focusing on OBS (in the movie), we are looking to both create goals and prevent goals.  Our goal should be to build a team that can be at least a plus 25 in goal differential next season.

Simply put teams with a positive goal differential make the playoffs and teams with a negative differential don't.  There are a couple exceptions here and there, but not many.  A +25 team always makes the playoffs and is usually in a good position to not worry about the wildcard slots.

Last season we were playoff competitive in GA, but no where near competitive on offense.  The PP was mediocre (Staal will help there) and the PK awful despite having Larsson.  Fix the special teams and we probably erase our -22 goal differential from last year.  The next step is scoring more goals.  Staal helps 5 on 5.  A full season of VO likely helps as well as does a full season of Kahun.  Skinner should rebound now that he is guaranteed playing with a capable center.  Still we need more depth scoring.  

We tried 13 guys who played in our bottom 6.  They scored a total of 63 goals (56 -  5 on 5).  Only Casey Mittelstadt, KO, Lazar, and Asplund are under contract or are RFAs.  Everyone else is a UFA or already gone.  This gives KA a real opportunity to remake this bottom 6 and make it more effective.  

What would I do now to stay internal cap compliant and find more scoring.

I think the top 6 forwards are now set (assuming the RFAs are re-signed)  Skinner Eichel Reinhart; VO Staal and Kahun (Cost 34.75)

There is only 1 slot allocated in the bottom 6 and that is KO's but is he a 3 RW or 4 RW?  (Cost so far 6 mill)

I'm trading Risto and Miller on Defense and re-signing Montour for $4 mill.  This gives me a top 4 D of Montour, McCabe, Joker and Dahlin.  (Cost 8.7 mill)

I'm re-signing Ullmark ($3 mill), cutting Hutton (costing 1.65).  Then sign Cam Talbot for $2 mill.  Net Goalie cost 6.65.

This puts me at 13 players for 56.1 million; leaving about 15 mill for 9 (6F & 3D) players.  Lazar, Cozens (or Mitts) and Thompson likely grab 3 of the 6 forward jobs and Borgen the 7th D (Cost about 3.4 mill).  That leaves 11.6 mill to be spent on 5 players.  Hopefully KA can play some money puck and get needed players on decent contracts for Miller and RIstolainen or dump both guys for futures or near ready prospects to bolster our pipeline. 

Under this scenario, we could re-sign Larsson for the 4th C role at 2.8

Value signings:  Riley Sheahan for 3 or 4 LW.  My guess is we can get him for the vet minimum, he is on the right side of 30 in the right situation he could be a 25-30 pt player.  Jon Merrill LD.  Also on the right side of 30, he has size and is a solid 2 way D.  Kind of a cheaper McCabe.  My guess is Merrill will cost in the 1.5 range.

This leaves 7.3 mill to get two vets to upgrade the team.  

Right now my team looks like this

Skinner Eichel Reinhart

Vo Staal Kahun 

????? Cozens Thompson

Sheahan Larsson KO

Lazar

Dahlin Jokiharju

McCabe Montour

Merrill   ??????

Borgen

Ullmark Talbot

I can't seem to find the right $2 mill RHD to fill out the 3rd pairing, but I have an idea for the 2RW/3 LW.  Alex Galchenyuk.  This guy can play anywhere, can score in this league but desperately needs a fresh start.  I guess the Wild could try to keep him as part of their youth movement, but maybe he is look for a better opportunity.  Maybe RK is the right coach to get the most out of this guy.  I'd sign him for a 1 year 3 mill deal and give him a chance to beat out Kahun for the 2 RW or take the pressure off and let him start at 3 LW.  I also wonder what Edm wants for Puljujarvi.  I'd love to see how he does with Staal as his center.

 

 

 

Overall, some interesting thoughts that could work.  But don't underdtand why you're cutting Hutton.  No point in having him still cause a cap hit next year.  Waive him at the end of training camp.  If he's picked up, fine you gain back cap space & if he clears, fine you have GT depth for the 1st time in ~10 years.  Either way, it's a win.

Presumably you did that to stay at $70MM as a cap hit, but there is no credible reason to believe they will have their cap that tight.  $75MM is far more plausible as a target IMHO.

[GASabresIUFAN]

Waiving him can be for his release or being sent down.  All vets on an NHL contracts have to go through waivers if they are being moved off the NHL team.  I don’t care when they waive him as long as he isn’t a Sabre next season.

[Taro T]

37 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Waiving him can be for his release or being sent down.  All vets on an NHL contracts have to go through waivers if they are being moved off the NHL team.  I don’t care when they waive him as long as he isn’t a Sabre next season.

When you said "cut" had assumed you meant "bought out."  (For some reason thought his cap hit was more than $2.75MM, so expected the $1.6MM you mentioned as the 1/3 current cap hit.  Oooops.)

We're on the same page about waiving him at the end of camp.

[Huckleberry]

https://www.capfriendly.com/armchair-gm/team/1931127

well I made an attempt maybe @Ducky can say what he would want in return for Ehlers with Ristolainen going the other way.

73.500.000  internal cap , which is still high of 70.000.000 reported by friedman.   Also don't want to handcuff this team with Dhalin needing a huge extension soon which will most likely be in the Eichel contract range.

Only thing I don't like is our LHD.   But Hjalmarsson can move to 2LHD with Joker, and we move Miller next to Dhalin.   
Also made me realize it will be freeking hard to go after pietrangelo and give him 8 mill, not only for the internal cap this year, but also for Dhalins extension that needs to happen.

Did buy out Okposo because I want more speed , but not an Ideal year to do it, his buy out is best suited in two years sadly.   Still counts 4 mil to the cap this year and 5 mill the next one, after that it gets better.

Edited September 18, 2020 by Huckleberry

[Curt]

2 hours ago, Huckleberry said:

73.500.000  internal cap , which is still high of 70.000.000 reported by friedman

Where did Friedman report that the Sabres will have a $70M internal cap?

I haven’t seen that anywhere.

Also, Dahlin man.

Edited September 18, 2020 by Curt

[Gabrielor]

Again, guys like Friedman talked endlessly about how good of a job Botterill did.

 

I don't trust anything the Sportsnet guys (who's parent company owns most of the Leafs) say about the Sabres, until the Sabres either proof it, or someone more trustworthy does.

[dudacek]

5 minutes ago, Curt said:

Where did Friedman report that the Sabres will have a $70M internal cap?

I haven’t seen that anywhere.

Also, Dahlin man.

I've never seen or heard Friedman on the Sabres cap.

Seravelli reported "in the low 70s," ChadD said he's heard "somewhat higher." I've seen no other direct reports.

Kevyn Adams talks like a man who has been given a target, believes he will have some flexibility there if needed, has a plan that may require that flexibility and doesn't want to tip his hand. I think that plan might involve taking on guys with higher cap hit than salary.

[Gabrielor]

3 minutes ago, dudacek said:

I've never seen or heard Friedman on the Sabres cap.

Seravelli reported "in the low 70s," ChadD said he's heard "somewhat higher." I've seen no other direct reports.

Kevyn Adams talks like a man who has been given a target, believes he will have some flexibility there if needed, has a plan that may require that flexibility and doesn't want to tip his hand. I think that plan might involve taking on guys with higher cap hit than salary.

Right on, and I'd be more inclined to trust Chad, who knows Buffalo people, is a Buffalo fan, and most important, doesn't work for the corporation owned by a division rival.

[GASabresIUFAN]

What would it cost to pry Puljujarvi from Edm?  Would a conditional 2nd (2021) and a 5th (2022) be enough.  The condition would be if he scores 20g or 35 pts for us it would upgrade to a lottery protected 1st in 2021.

I also wonder if Chicago will trade us Saad, but eat 50% of his salary and cap like Pitt did with Bjugstad.

Edited September 18, 2020 by GASabresIUFAN

[Huckleberry]

6 hours ago, dudacek said:

I've never seen or heard Friedman on the Sabres cap.

Seravelli reported "in the low 70s," ChadD said he's heard "somewhat higher." I've seen no other direct reports.

Kevyn Adams talks like a man who has been given a target, believes he will have some flexibility there if needed, has a plan that may require that flexibility and doesn't want to tip his hand. I think that plan might involve taking on guys with higher cap hit than salary.

The instigators interview with friedman is on youtube, he talks about the 70 mill internal cap.   It will be a special UFA/RFA season.

When I see Krug stating, he bet on himself long enough, his value is high and he will not take hometown discount I chuckle a bit.

no AHL season, I bet at least 20 teams with internal caps.  the UFA/RFA clock has been put back 10 years at least for the next 3 seasons.

Brodin just signed a 7x6 contract, last year that dude should have signed up to 7.5 a year at least.  

[dudacek]

13 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

The instigators interview with friedman is on youtube, he talks about the 70 mill internal cap.   It will be a special UFA/RFA season.

 It struck me as a passing reference to Seravelli's report, not something that he has been told directly.

"When those stories came out about them possibly being a $70 million team...what do you think if you're Jack Eichel?"

That's not him saying that they are going to be a $70 million team.

[Eleven]

4 hours ago, dudacek said:

 It struck me as a passing reference to Seravelli's report, not something that he has been told directly.

"When those stories came out about them possibly being a $70 million team...what do you think if you're Jack Eichel?"

That's not him saying that they are going to be a $70 million team.

They only will be a $70-72M team if they think they need to store some dry powder for next offseason.  It won't be out of parsimony.  There is no Larry Quinn / Tom GOlisano problem here.

[GASabresIUFAN]

OK the plan.

UFA signings: Larsson (2 years @2.75 per season), Jon Merrill (2 years @ 1.6) and Justin Schultz (1 year 2 mill)

RFA signings: Reinhart (2 years @ 6.5), Ullmark (2 years @ 2.8), Kahun (2 years @ 2.5), VO (1 year @ 3.0), and Montour (2 years @ 4.0); Lazar (2 years 900k)

Trades:  Colin Miller and Ristolainen for picks and prospects (we are missing 3rd in 2020 and 2021, 5th in 2020, 2021 and 2022);  Acquire Puljujarvi from Edm for a conditional 2nd in 2021 could be a lottery protected first in 2021 if he scores 20 goals or 35 points and he must sign an NHL contract for next season.  I figure $1 mill for a 1 year deal.  Acquire Saad from Chicago for a 4th in 2021 but Chicago eats at least $2 mill of his salary.

Other:  Kids Cozens (3C) and Asplund (4 LW) make the team.

Cost 71,420,000

Roster

Skinner, Jack, Sam; VO, Staal, Saad; Kahun, Cozens, Puljujarvi; Asplund, Larsson, KO with Lazar

McCabe/Montour; Dahlin/Jokiharju; Merrill/Schultz with Borgen

Ullmark - Hutton - (note: I'd like to dump Hutton, but would rather spend the limited cap elsewhere)

Mitts and Thompson start the season in the AHL (assuming there is an AHL) giving us depth to callup for injuries or poor performance.  

[Huckleberry]

7 hours ago, Eleven said:

They only will be a $70-72M team if they think they need to store some dry powder for next offseason.  It won't be out of parsimony.  There is no Larry Quinn / Tom GOlisano problem here.

Well you do need to space for Dhalins big contract.

[MakeSabresGrr8Again]

2 hours ago, Huckleberry said:

Well you do need to space for Dhalins big contract.

I hope they spell his name right on his contract.

[Ducky]

On 9/18/2020 at 8:07 AM, Huckleberry said:

https://www.capfriendly.com/armchair-gm/team/1931127

well I made an attempt maybe @Ducky can say what he would want in return for Ehlers with Ristolainen going the other way.

73.500.000  internal cap , which is still high of 70.000.000 reported by friedman.   Also don't want to handcuff this team with Dhalin needing a huge extension soon which will most likely be in the Eichel contract range.

Only thing I don't like is our LHD.   But Hjalmarsson can move to 2LHD with Joker, and we move Miller next to Dhalin.   
Also made me realize it will be freeking hard to go after pietrangelo and give him 8 mill, not only for the internal cap this year, but also for Dhalins extension that needs to happen.

Did buy out Okposo because I want more speed , but not an Ideal year to do it, his buy out is best suited in two years sadly.   Still counts 4 mil to the cap this year and 5 mill the next one, after that it gets better.

No interest for Risto and I sure hope Chevy doesn't trade Ehlers for Dumba like the rumors are saying...

[Eleven]

12 hours ago, MakeSabresGrr8Again said:

I hope they spell his name right on his contract.

Let's just hope they spell it correctly on his sweater.