2020 Off-season gameplan

[sabremike]

1 hour ago, Weave said:

Imo if Larsson leave it guarantees Cozens has a center spot on the team this coming season.

Correct. They NEVER learn...

[LGR4GM]

2 hours ago, Thorny said:

Should be easy for a first time GM, who the owners only had replace Botterill because Botterill told the owners he couldn't/wouldn't continue executing his failing plan for cheaper, to acquire 3 centres in a few months, when it took the previous GM 3 years to add a single C in Lazar, who we need three C adds better than.

 

[Thorny]

I confess myself fairly disappointed with Wawrow's "new" info that Botterill was canned simply because he wouldn't cut costs. I had assumed, maybe stupidly, that job performance factored in a ton and that the cutting costs thing merely served as a tipping point. 

I'm just not getting that sense anymore. Adams does deserve his chance. This is going to be another offseason like the last however where we'll know, should the right moves not come to pass, that next season is likely DOA before it even starts. 

We had Eichel, ROR, and Larsson. A 1C, a 2C (really a 1 masquerading as a 2), and a defensive/matchups C. Now we only have Jack, as a certainty. 

We couldn't replace the 2C in a couple years, and now we have to replace the 2C, and the defensive C, in a couple months.

Or risk losing the 1C. 

Edited September 2, 2020 by Thorny

[Thorny]

Skinner - Eichel - Reinhart

Olofsson - Kahun - Johansson

Thompson - Lazar - Okposo

X - X - X 

Dahlin - Ristolainen

McCabe - Montour

Miller - Jokiharju

Hutton

Ullmark

- - - 

This is our current roster composed of established NHL players, including RFAs, season starts in 3 months. We've got Asplund, Cozens, Mittelstadt, Ruotsalainen, and whatever trades and UFA signings we can muster in those months as potential supplements. 

As of now, I count 9/20 slots adequately filled. Players currently slotted in a role where we can EXPECT them to produce adequately, for that relative role. Eichel, Skinner, Reinhart, Olofsson, Dahlin, McCabe, Montour, Jokijarju, and Ullmark. 

Any 2 of Risto, Montour, Jokijarju can represent those adequately filled bottom-4 RHD roles I listed (and I'd listen to an argument for all 3 roles being competently filled, depending on how much load Dahlin is ready to carry), and Ullmark is definitely a solid backup, at least, at this stage. There's still a hole on the LHD side. 

F - 4/12

D - 4/6

G - 1/2

*It should be noted that the hope lies in the fact that there are several "two birds, one stone" scenarios available to us. Ie - properly filling in the second line bumps several others down to an adequate position.

Edited September 2, 2020 by Thorny

[JohnC]

2 hours ago, Thorny said:

Skinner - Eichel - Reinhart

Olofsson - Kahun - Johansson

Thompson - Lazar - Okposo

X - X - X 

Dahlin - Ristolainen

McCabe - Montour

Miller - Jokiharju

Hutton

Ullmark

- - - 

This is our current roster composed of established NHL players, including RFAs, season starts in 3 months. We've got Asplund, Cozens, Mittelstadt, Ruotsalainen, and whatever trades and UFA signings we can muster in those months as potential supplements. 

As of now, I count 9/20 slots adequately filled. Players currently slotted in a role where we can EXPECT them to produce adequately, for that relative role. Eichel, Skinner, Reinhart, Olofsson, Dahlin, McCabe, Montour, Jokijarju, and Ullmark. 

Any 2 of Risto, Montour, Jokijarju can represent those adequately filled bottom-4 RHD roles I listed (and I'd listen to an argument for all 3 roles being competently filled, depending on how much load Dahlin is ready to carry), and Ullmark is definitely a solid backup, at least, at this stage. There's still a hole on the LHD side. 

F - 4/12

D - 4/6

G - 1/2

*It should be noted that the hope lies in the fact that there are several "two birds, one stone" scenarios available to us. Ie - properly filling in the second line bumps several others down to an adequate position.

I'm confident that the front office is going to address the 2C position and upgrade the second line this offseason. I also believe that the roster is going to be boosted by the internal improvement of our young players such as Kahun, Joki, Dahlin, Olofsson, Tage etc. The biggest factor that will determine success will be the quality of our goaltending. Will Ullmark be sufficient as a #1 goalie? I don't know.  I realize that Hutton had a down year last season but as a sparsely to moderately used backup I consider him adequate enough. My sense is that the organization is going to stick with the current tandem in goal. In my estimation Ullmark is going to be the most important player determining whether this franchise is able to get out of its extended rut. 

[dudacek]

38 minutes ago, JohnC said:

I'm confident that the front office is going to address the 2C position and upgrade the second line this offseason. I also believe that the roster is going to be boosted by the internal improvement of our young players such as Kahun, Joki, Dahlin, Olofsson, Tage etc. The biggest factor that will determine success will be the quality of our goaltending. Will Ullmark be sufficient as a #1 goalie? I don't know.  I realize that Hutton had a down year last season but as a sparsely to moderately used backup I consider him adequate enough. My sense is that the organization is going to stick with the current tandem in goal. In my estimation Ullmark is going to be the most important player determining whether this franchise is able to get out of its extended rut. 

I think the bolded is very astute.

Ullmark is about to enter goalie prime years and his has been a path of steady growth and improvement:

22 AHL rookie 28 games, 902 S%

23 AHL starter 55 games, 909

24 AHL stud 45 games, 922

25 NHL rookie 37 games, 905

26 NHL starter 34 games 915

27 ???

A lot of times goalies just seem to step out of the shadows in the back half of their 20s after paying their dues and emerge: Lehner and Markstrom are two playing right now that fit that mould.

It would be nice.

Edited September 2, 2020 by dudacek

[nfreeman]

23 minutes ago, dudacek said:

I think the boldest is very astute.

Ullmark is about to enter goalie prime years and his has been a path of steady growth and improvement:

22 AHL rookie 28 games, 902 S%

23 AHL starter 55 games, 909

24 AHL stud 45 games, 922

25 NHL rookie 37 games, 905

26 NHL starter 34 games 915

27 ???

A lot of times goalies just seem to step out of the shadows in the back half of their 20s after paying their dues and emerge: Lehner and Markstrom are two playing right now that fit that mould.

It would be nice.

Outstanding, and it gives me hope.

Where's @MODO Hockey to bask in the awesomeness of the possibilities?

[JohnC]

9 minutes ago, dudacek said:

I think the boldest is very astute.

Ullmark is about to enter goalie prime years and his has been a path of steady growth and improvement:

22 AHL rookie 28 games, 902 S%

23 AHL starter 55 games, 909

24 AHL stud 45 games, 922

25 NHL rookie 37 games, 905

26 NHL starter 34 games 915

27 ???

A lot of times goalies just seem to step out of the shadows in the back half of their 20s after paying their dues and emerge: Lehner and Markstrom are two playing right now that fit that mould.

It would be nice.

Goalies are an odd lot. Sometimes you think that one is on an upward trajectory, and then surprisingly slides back. Sometimes an inconsistent goalie is dealt and then shines in the new location, and then shortly thereafter falls back to the lower pack. Last year, Binnington was the stalwart player who was instrumental in the Blues winning the cup. This year he slid back. You just don't know other than how important that position is for success. 

[Thorny]

1 hour ago, JohnC said:

I'm confident that the front office is going to address the 2C position and upgrade the second line this offseason. I also believe that the roster is going to be boosted by the internal improvement of our young players such as Kahun, Joki, Dahlin, Olofsson, Tage etc. The biggest factor that will determine success will be the quality of our goaltending. Will Ullmark be sufficient as a #1 goalie? I don't know.  I realize that Hutton had a down year last season but as a sparsely to moderately used backup I consider him adequate enough. My sense is that the organization is going to stick with the current tandem in goal. In my estimation Ullmark is going to be the most important player determining whether this franchise is able to get out of its extended rut. 

You are operating under the assumption that they are going to adequately address the second line - so yes, if we are counting that as a given, the play of the goalies, who you've also stipulated as going unaddressed positionally, will probably be the biggest factor, that and injuries. 

The team is DOA on arrival without the additions you speak of so, I can't help but focus on that, as it's under team control. Unless Ullmark turns into prime Lundqvist, he's not going to make up anything close to the WAR we need to make the playoffs, regardless, sans actual 2nd line upgrades. 

There's a whole whack of work that needs to be done this offseason, to get this team into a position where potential internal development is enough to bridge the playoff gap. 

Edited September 3, 2020 by Thorny

[Thorny]

55 minutes ago, JohnC said:

Goalies are an odd lot. Sometimes you think that one is on an upward trajectory, and then surprisingly slides back. Sometimes an inconsistent goalie is dealt and then shines in the new location, and then shortly thereafter falls back to the lower pack. Last year, Binnington was the stalwart player who was instrumental in the Blues winning the cup. This year he slid back. You just don't know other than how important that position is for success. 

So we probably don't want to put ourselves in a position, heading into the year, where we are relying on too much of a favourable projection for Ullmark. We want to make these levels we are hoping our players ascend to as attainable as possible. 

If we need Ullmark to succeed, we should probably put some stallwart defensive players in front of him, on both ends of the ice. Keep the play in the other end, too. Manipulate what we can to the best of our ability to try and put enough bowling bumpers on the track to keep his development on target. We don't hope for development with Ullmark, we alter the environment to be favourable to such. 

Early returns are Krueger's system is amenable to that, he just needs the guys, apparently. 

Edited September 3, 2020 by Thorny

[JohnC]

1 hour ago, Thorny said:

So we probably don't want to put ourselves in a position, heading into the year, where we are relying on too much of a favourable projection for Ullmark. We want to make these levels we are hoping our players ascend to as attainable as possible. 

If we need Ullmark to succeed, we should probably put some stallwart defensive players in front of him, on both ends of the ice. Keep the play in the other end, too. Manipulate what we can to the best of our ability to try and put enough bowling bumpers on the track to keep his development on target. We don't hope for development with Ullmark, we alter the environment to be favourable to such. 

Early returns are Krueger's system is amenable to that, he just needs the guys, apparently. 

This is a very smart post. I'm sure you know that your thesis applies to all goalies on all teams. The better the team and the more defensively oriented it is the more effective your goalie is going to be. As you are indicating a goalie playing for a team like the Islanders with their defensive orientation is more likely to have consistent and effective goaltending. Can a prolific scoring team win more than a defensive oriented team? Yes, in the regular season. However, when the regular season ends and the playoffs start then your suggested constructive team is more likely to succeed with a tighter played game. 

I agree with your observation and take on Krueger. He wants a lineup full of responsible players who are aware of their defensive responsibilities not only when they are in their defensive zone but also to a lesser extent when they are in their offensive zone. What he doesn't seem to have an affinity for are players who are floaters. And because of that inclination he doesn't seem to have much affection for Skinner.  

Where I have a nuanced difference with your astute comments is that Ullmark's progression as a player is very much in his own hands. He's not an island onto himself as a player but to a degree he is. I'm hoping that his progression as a goalie continues but I'm not sure. 

[JohnC]

1 hour ago, Thorny said:

You are operating under the assumption that they are going to adequately address the second line - so yes, if we are counting that as a given, the play of the goalies, who you've also stipulated as going unaddressed positionally, will probably be the biggest factor, that and injuries. 

The team is DOA on arrival without the additions you speak of so, I can't help but focus on that, as it's under team control. Unless Ullmark turns into prime Lundqvist, he's not going to make up anything close to the WAR we need to make the playoffs, regardless, sans actual 2nd line upgrades. 

There's a whole whack of work that needs to be done this offseason, to get this team into a position where potential internal development is enough to bridge the playoff gap.

I say this with no equivocation: Unless talent is added from the outside this team is doomed to continue meandering on its road to nowhere meaningful. In my opinion this team needs two second line caliber additions in order to be taken seriously. I believe it is doable because we do have the assets to parlay in order to better balance this very imbalanced roster. 

[Thorny]

10 minutes ago, JohnC said:

Where I have a nuanced difference with your astute comments is that Ullmark's progression as a player is very much in his own hands. He's not an island onto himself as a player but to a degree he is. I'm hoping that his progression as a goalie continues but I'm not sure. 

^no, I agree, he does hold a hand himself and I didn't mean to imply otherwise. It should be/needs to be a team effort. 

[Thorny]

15 minutes ago, JohnC said:

I say this with no equivocation: Unless talent is added from the outside this team is doomed to continue meandering on its road to nowhere meaningful. In my opinion this team needs two second line caliber additions in order to be taken seriously. I believe it is doable because we do have the assets to parlay in order to better balance this very imbalanced roster. 

Agree, and it's a mark of how badly we need one, at C, that I'd be reasonably satisfied with merely a bonafide 2C addition, if we can manage that. Provided, we adequately replace Larsson in the bottom 6. Replacing Larsson is, in my estimation, more important that a top 6 rw. And a top 6 rw is pretty important. 

Betting on Cozens to fill a 2nd line RW spot is not a good bet, but it's orders of magnitude more palatable than a 2C bet on Cozens. 

I'll write in "Larsson" as representative of an adequate replacement, and:

Oloffson - Eichel - Reinhart

Skinner - Danault - X

Johansson - Larsson - Kahun

...if we are looking at something looking like this, I'm not sweating a Cozens 2RW bet considering the at least reasonable strength of the unit and the ability to shuffle guys around. If we add a 2RW also, we are in really good shape I'd say. We wouldn't be counting on Cozens for anything and that's a great place to be. 

Edited September 3, 2020 by Thorny

[JohnC]

2 minutes ago, Thorny said:

Agree, and it's a mark of how badly we need one, at C, that I'd be reasonably satisfied with merely a bonafide 2C addition, if we can manage that. Provided, we adequately replace Larsson in the bottom 6. Replacing Larsson is, in my estimation, more important that a top 6 rw. And a top 6 rw is pretty important. 

I slightly disagree with your take about Larsson. It should be noted that I am a Larsson fan and recognize that he adds an element of toughness that this team lacks. But if he isn't retained I believe that Lazar can adequately fill his role. He might not be as good as Larsson but his style of play can compensate for his loss. I would definitely prefer a top 6 winger who not only would elevate the second line but push down another player to a lower line. 

[Thorny]

6 minutes ago, JohnC said:

I slightly disagree with your take about Larsson. It should be noted that I am a Larsson fan and recognize that he adds an element of toughness that this team lacks. But if he isn't retained I believe that Lazar can adequately fill his role. He might not be as good as Larsson but his style of play can compensate for his loss. I would definitely prefer a top 6 winger who not only would elevate the second line but push down another player to a lower line. 

Larsson gets top-tier defensive results in incredibly tough usage. We rely on him so much. Asking Lazar to do that, when he never has, is dicey in my estimation. 

What you see isn't really what you get with Larsson, on this roster. Picture him basically standing in a 4 foot deep hole, to start. We are merely seeing what's above the surface. I think he himself, at least, thinks this. He's looking for an opportunity on a bit more solid footing. We need to be careful with anyone we ask to fill his hole straight up, from internally, or another team. Much of what we see from other players will be hidden below the surface immediately upon placement in his shoes. 

Edited September 3, 2020 by Thorny

[LGR4GM]

21 minutes ago, JohnC said:

I slightly disagree with your take about Larsson. It should be noted that I am a Larsson fan and recognize that he adds an element of toughness that this team lacks. But if he isn't retained I believe that Lazar can adequately fill his role. He might not be as good as Larsson but his style of play can compensate for his loss. I would definitely prefer a top 6 winger who not only would elevate the second line but push down another player to a lower line. 

It's a major step down. Larsson is a smothering player and Lazar just hasn't been. 

Losing Larsson is a major problem added to the list. 

[Brawndo]

Per Chad later tweet

Murray and McCann are the targets 

[Gabrielor]

McCann is on the lower end of centers I want, but is at least a center.

 

I'm very nervous about a Murray trade. It better be like a 4th or later, or Marcus Davidsson + Hutton. I'm not giving up value...

[thewookie1]

22 minutes ago, Gabrielor said:

McCann is on the lower end of centers I want, but is at least a center.

 

I'm very nervous about a Murray trade. It better be like a 4th or later, or Marcus Davidsson + Hutton. I'm not giving up value...

That would be a rather sad attempt to fix our team.

[steveoath]

Olofsson (x2) and Ullmark to head play in Sweden for a bit before returning. Good thing? Or accident waiting to happen?

https://buffalonews.com/sports/sabres/sabres-linus-ullmark-olofsson-brothers-reportedly-could-be-loaned-to-swedish-team/article_768cda70-ec97-11ea-80ac-938d92f9bd35.html

[Thorny]

4 hours ago, thewookie1 said:

That would be a rather sad attempt to fix our team.

Sad was Botterill's inept offseasons of doing nothing.

McCann isn't enough of a centre ice addition on his own, but he'd be the type of smart, 2-way reliable addition to the centre ice position we haven't seen since before the most recently fired GM's tenure. It's not a long-term fix to the position, but he's a more than reasonable 3C and a solid stop gap 2C, in my estimation, should Cozens pan out.

The key is a Larsson replacement, it's a massive wrench in our off season plans. Hopefully we add a top 6 winger, too. Adding McCann, and losing Larsson, wouldn't be enough. But adding McCann, and adequately replacing Larsson (a Copp type player?), and we'd be in better shape at the C position than we have been in years.

McCann is still only 24, should be retained for a reasonable price (RFA), is responsible defensively, and has been behind several centres in Pittsburgh. His point totals projections over 82 games have shown a reasonably steady increase since coming into the league. 21, 20, 34, 37, 43. To me, a 43 point pace is a reasonable option considering he's actually a natural centre and as mentioned, is reliable on both ends. Only 6 of his points were on the PP.

I'd be satisfied with an Eichel - McCann - Larsson - Cozens centre spine in 2020. Maybe my expectations are too low, after seeing so little action over the past few years, but I think even an addition of McCann's quality will make a big difference. I could see him as a fit with Skinner, too.

- - -

I don't know what to think about Murray. If we could re-up him for a short term deal, I can't see him not being a better option that Hutton and probably Ullmark. It depends what we were to give up in this hypothetical trade. We'd be keeping 8 and Reinhart I'd imagine, so the net gain may be higher than a lot of other proposed deals. Do we have the $ to sign a Hall or Hoffman?

Olofsson - Eichel - Reinhart

Skinner - McCann - Hall

Girensons - Larsson - Okposo

Johansson - Cozens - Kahun

... i feel like that would be a very solid F group, but a player like Hall/Hoffman could be a pipe dream. But substitute a guy like Jesper Fast in for Hall, we still have a good looking forward group. In fact, a second line of Skinner - McCann - Fast would be a nightmare to play against.

I'd consider an offseason that nets us a McCann, Larsson, and Fast upfront a smashing success. Would amount to 3 reasonably priced, 2-way forward additions, and importantly, 2 natural centres. Probably at a non-exorbitant cost. Second two could even be UFA (these 2 examples would be).

Edited September 3, 2020 by Thorny

[Eleven]

2 hours ago, steveoath said:

Olofsson (x2) and Ullmark to head play in Sweden for a bit before returning. Good thing? Or accident waiting to happen?

https://buffalonews.com/sports/sabres/sabres-linus-ullmark-olofsson-brothers-reportedly-could-be-loaned-to-swedish-team/article_768cda70-ec97-11ea-80ac-938d92f9bd35.html

Good thing.

[dudacek]

6 hours ago, Brawndo said:

Per Chad later tweet

Murray and McCann are the targets 

Not opposed to Murray if the price is right and Hutton is flipped. Bales would have good insight into his game and why it may have slipped last year. Murray and Ullmark battling for the crease and the best man winning might be very good for us.

Am I the only one who has heard whispers of McCann being a first-class DB? Pretty sure I read he was in some teams Do Not Draft lists and I know the Canucks regretted taking him because of his attitude. Didn’t last long in Florida and now on the block again? On the ice, I like the fit, although getting benched in the playoffs didn’t sit well especially on a team that played Conor Sheary.

4 hours ago, steveoath said:

Olofsson (x2) and Ullmark to head play in Sweden for a bit before returning. Good thing? Or accident waiting to happen?

https://buffalonews.com/sports/sabres/sabres-linus-ullmark-olofsson-brothers-reportedly-could-be-loaned-to-swedish-team/article_768cda70-ec97-11ea-80ac-938d92f9bd35.html

Good thing. (And I forgot about the other Olofsson)

[Shootica]

32 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Am I the only one who has heard whispers of McCann being a first-class DB? Pretty sure I read he was in some teams Do Not Draft lists and I know the Canucks regretted taking him because of his attitude. Didn’t last long in Florida and now on the block again? On the ice, I like the fit, although getting benched in the playoffs didn’t sit well especially on a team that played Conor Sheary.

You're not, I've heard the same.  And it's backed up by the fact that he's on his third team already and on the trade block again.

Not a fan of this rumor.