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Sabres only deadline thread


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5 minutes ago, Randall Flagg said:

Inkman and Ogre are both comparing his AHL stint to that of Nylander fwiw. 

They were initially from what I saw. He has 19pts/29 games so far, which Alex needed 49gp to do in his last AHL stint, which was also his 3rd time in the AHL.

Speaking of Nylander, he's put up 8-12-20 in 57gp this year. Mittelstadt put up 12-23-25 in 77gp his first full season in the NHL, straight out of college. I have so much more faith in Mittelstadt than I ever did in Nylander

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1 minute ago, WildCard said:

They were initially from what I saw. He has 19pts/29 games so far, which Alex needed 49gp to do in his last AHL stint, which was also his 3rd time in the AHL

Are those numbers out of line with what college Mitts through this year's NHL Mitts would be expected to put up? Combined with the qualitative descriptions from those two, 19 points in 29 games is not particularly enticing for a guy in his D+3 season.

Our first, a defenseman, and Mitts, could probably get us a pretty nice center

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2 minutes ago, WildCard said:

He said in the press conference he wouldn't make moves for these reasons, and rightfully so. Everyone is so ready to throw away Mittelstadt even though he's been very good in the AHL lately. If I'm moving him as part of a package it's for better than Trocheck and not to smooth Botterill's reputation via a run at 8th place.

It's short-sighted. This teams needs a shot in the arm and if one of TT or Mitts fills that syringe, you bloody well do it. Miits isn't doing that well. And this team needs a run at 8th place. WTF, is the plan to either build a Cup contender or do nothing?

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3 hours ago, Brawndo said:

He’s back and on WGR right now. 

 

2 hours ago, Eleven said:

well that's that, then.

 

47 minutes ago, Broken Ankles said:

And adding zero value.   When asked who had a better trade deadline - NJD or Ottawa he asked Marty who had more First round picks returned.  Seriously?   If your paid to comment, I need you to know a little about who they traded and what was the return, and secondly, a little more insight.  Horrible Hammy.  Time to hang those Iowa State skates up. 

I hate to lick a man when he's down but his analysis is abysmal. Marty is better in every single way.  Hell, Rivet and Peters have more insight. Paul is a dinosaur.  A journalist who gives his opinions but the world has passed him by.  We have access to everything you do Paul, and we know how to understand it better.  You make antiquated assertions with little regard to how things are measured today.  Do everyone a favor and go broadcast Iowa State games.  

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3 minutes ago, Randall Flagg said:

Are those numbers out of line with what college Mitts through this year's NHL Mitts would be expected to put up? Combined with the qualitative descriptions from those two, 19 points in 29 games is not particularly enticing for a guy in his D+3 season.

Our first, a defenseman, and Mitts, could probably get us a pretty nice center

I think he had something like 3pts in his first 10gp though, so it's gotten a lot better recently. Nylander has also shown nothing in the NHL, less than Mittelstadt did in his first full season straight out of college.

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4 minutes ago, inkman said:

I hate to lick a man when he's down but his analysis is abysmal. Marty is better in every single way.  Hell, Rivet and Peters have more insight. Paul is a dinosaur.  A journalist who gives his opinions but the world has passed him by.  We have access to everything you do Paul, and we know how to understand it better.  You make antiquated assertions with little regard to how things are measured today.  Do everyone a favor and go broadcast Iowa State games.  

Marchand/Jabba-style.

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8 minutes ago, Randall Flagg said:

Are those numbers out of line with what college Mitts through this year's NHL Mitts would be expected to put up? Combined with the qualitative descriptions from those two, 19 points in 29 games is not particularly enticing for a guy in his D+3 season.

Our first, a defenseman, and Mitts, could probably get us a pretty nice center

I'm not giving up the #1 pick -- which will almost certainly be in the lottery -- plus Mitts for Trocheck. 

 

7 minutes ago, ... said:

It's short-sighted. This teams needs a shot in the arm and if one of TT or Mitts fills that syringe, you bloody well do it. Miits isn't doing that well. And this team needs a run at 8th place. WTF, is the plan to either build a Cup contender or do nothing?

This is kinda where I am, although there is reason to be concerned that Trocheck ain't the guy, and it's still quite possible that Mitts becomes a good NHL player.

Again, this is one of those calls that JB should be and probably will be evaluated on.  At this point, it's more likely than not that Mitts never becomes a 40-pt NHL guy, and it's more likely than not that Trocheck's next 5 years are substantially better than Mitts' next 5 years.  Maybe not, but JB is paid to make these calls and get most of them right.

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14 minutes ago, Randall Flagg said:

There are people on hfboards worrying that Jason set us up so that performance bonuses likely to be reached this season could wind up costing us a couple million dollars in cap space next year. It would be an incredible gaffe if this is true. 

Can someone smart here please elaborate? 

Players on ELC's can earn performance bonuses (up to $212.5k per category) for hitting particular milestones.  Dahlin can earn bonuses for being in the top 4 D-men in ice time on the Sabres - check

10 goals - doubtful

25 assists - check

40 points - almost definitely a check

0.49 ppg - check

Being in the top 3 D on the Sabres in +/- - check for now, could change ed depending on how Jokiharju does (but he qualifies for that likely if Dahlin falters)

Blocked shots- top 2 D on team - doubtful

3 other leaguewide awards - doubtful

 

Forwards have similar categories they qualify for and Olofsson will likely qualify for at least 3 categories (goals, ppg, & All Rookie team).  

Including Kahun, there are 4 Sabres that will likely get bonuses (Dahlin, Olofsson, Jokiharju, and Kahun) and a few others that could but probably won't (Johansson, Thompson, Mittelstadt, Pilut).  There are $6.8MM worth of POTENTIAL bonuses to be paid out out.  Likely there'll be between $2.5MM - $4MM.

NHL Numbers lists the Sabres as still being over the cap by ~$1.2MM when all the IR'd players are included, so the entire bonus pool would carry over to next year.  That side is also showing the "current roster annual cap hit" at ~$77.4MM.  If, their total actual current cap hit prorates to ~ that $77.4 then they might be able to save a bit on bonuses next year by paying them this year.  But, having not done the math myself, will assume they are still over the cap and any bonuses earned this year will be paid next year.

And if they still are over the cap, as NHL Nunbers indicates they are, they'd've had to not pick up Frolik to be able to work any portion of the bonuses into this seasons cap.

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Just now, Taro T said:

Players on ELC's can earn performance bonuses (up to $212.5k per category) for hitting particular milestones.  Dahlin can earn bonuses for being in the top 4 D-men in ice time on the Sabres - check

10 goals - doubtful

25 assists - check

40 points - almost definitely a check

0.49 ppg - check

Being in the top 3 D on the Sabres in +/- - check for now, could change ed depending on how Jokiharju does (but he qualifies for that likely if Dahlin falters)

Blocked shots- top 2 D on team - doubtful

3 other leaguewide awards - doubtful

 

Forwards have similar categories they qualify for and Olofsson will likely qualify for at least 3 categories (goals, ppg, & All Rookie team).  

Including Kahun, there are 4 Sabres that will likely get bonuses (Dahlin, Olofsson, Jokiharju, and Kahun) and a few others that could but probably won't (Johansson, Thompson, Mittelstadt, Pilut).  There are $6.8MM worth of POTENTIAL bonuses to be paid out out.  Likely there'll be between $2.5MM - $4MM.

NHL Numbers lists the Sabres as still being over the cap by ~$1.2MM when all the IR'd players are included, so the entire bonus pool would carry over to next year.  That side is also showing the "current roster annual cap hit" at ~$77.4MM.  If, their total actual current cap hit prorates to ~ that $77.4 then they might be able to save a bit on bonuses next year by paying them this year.  But, having not done the math myself, will assume they are still over the cap and any bonuses earned this year will be paid next year.

And if they still are over the cap, as NHL Nunbers indicates they are, they'd've had to not pick up Frolik to be able to work any portion of the bonuses into this seasons cap.

What if they had picked up Frolik, but dumped him, or dumped Vesey without bringing in Simmonds, or something like that? 

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10 minutes ago, Randall Flagg said:

What if they had picked up Frolik, but dumped him, or dumped Vesey without bringing in Simmonds, or something like that? 

Well 1st off, at this point, there's only 1/4 of the regular season left, so even if trading Frolik yesterday would allow the Sabres to be banking his entire cap hit until the end of the season, they'd only bank 1/4 of his $4.3MM cap hit.  Which still wouldn't be enough to cover the full amount of bonuses the kids will earn this year.

And, remember, it's a GOOD thing these kids are earning the bonuses.

(And haven't looked closely at the CBA to figure out if the Sabres or the Pens are on the hook for Kahun's bonuses (assuming he earns them), though it makes sense the Sabres will owe them.  And those bonuses would explain why the Sabres managed to refrain from keeping any salary for Sheary & Sheary-lite leaving town.)

Worrying about the bonuses would've kept Botterill from bringing back anybody yesterday.

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1 hour ago, WildCard said:

They were initially from what I saw. He has 19pts/29 games so far, which Alex needed 49gp to do in his last AHL stint, which was also his 3rd time in the AHL.

Speaking of Nylander, he's put up 8-12-20 in 57gp this year. Mittelstadt put up 12-23-25 in 77gp his first full season in the NHL, straight out of college. I have so much more faith in Mittelstadt than I ever did in Nylander

Mittelstadt had a very slow start but was going at ~1ppg once he finally got going.  Seems he's in a bit of a slump again, but only watched 2 of their last 5, so that might not be accurate.

Still expecting him to be useful next year.

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1 hour ago, ... said:

I don't know, man, I think you're off the mark a little. Here's why:

If the difference was the inclusion of TT or Mitts, what a small price to pay to recover from the ROR travesty. By making that trade (with the inclusion of either), he nearly instantly would reset his reputation and likely improve the Sabres' short-term prospects. I think even Botterill makes that move all day long.

But the other factor is what our personnel people thought of Trochek.

Is he the hard-to-play-against 70-point player I pictured him as when his name first hit the market? Or is he the selfish, slower, turnover machine Florida fans are describing him as this year?

Side note: at the time of the trade, at least in terms of reputations, we appeared to get quite a bit more for O’Reilly than the Panthers got here.

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16 minutes ago, Taro T said:

Well 1st off, at this point, there's only 1/4 of the regular season left, so even if trading Frolik yesterday would allow the Sabres to be banking his entire cap hit until the end of the season, they'd only bank 1/4 of his $4.3MM cap hit.  Which still wouldn't be enough to cover the full amount of bonuses the kids will earn this year.

And, remember, it's a GOOD thing these kids are earning the bonuses.

(And haven't looked closely at the CBA to figure out if the Sabres or the Pens are on the hook for Kahun's bonuses (assuming he earns them), though it makes sense the Sabres will owe them.  And those bonuses would explain why the Sabres managed to refrain from keeping any salary for Sheary & Sheary-lite leaving town.)

Worrying about the bonuses would've kept Botterill from bringing back anybody yesterday.

Even with all of this, if our cap genius ends up handcuffing a couple million in cap space next season, I'm justified in being pretty pissed off, right? Especially because of how bad Frolik is haha

Just now, dudacek said:

But the other factor is what our personnel people thought of Trochek.

Is he the hard-to-play-against 70-point player I pictured him as when his name first hit the market? Or is he the selfish, slower, turnover machine Florida fans are describing him as this year?

Side note: at the time of the trade, at least in terms of reputations, we appeared to get quite a bit more for O’Reilly than the Panthers got here.

By reputations are you referring to Bob McKenzie telling us that Berglund and Sobotka were great depth? Because I'd much rather have the Panthers' haul today than I would have liked the Sabres' haul back on July 1st 

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https://theathletic.com/1633235/2020/02/24/final-trade-grades-grading-all-31-nhl-teams-with-trade-season-wrapped-up/


 

Quote

 

Buffalo Sabres: C

The Sabres had conversations with teams about trading players for draft picks but ultimately wanted to make deals that allowed them to stay competitive for the stretch run, which they did in the Dominik Kahun trade. Sure, it was puzzling to see them as buyers in the Wayne Simmonds trade but ultimately that conditional fifth-rounder isn’t going to change anything long term.

Sabres GM Jason Botterill saw an energy in recent play with his team and wanted to reward it. Considering all the negativity in Buffalo in recent years, it’s an understandable approach.

“Overall I think there’s a good buzz and growth with our group,” Botterill said during his press conference on Monday. “We’ve talked a lot about playing meaningful games in the month of March. I think with some of the moves we made today we’re setting our team up to better accept that challenge.”


 

While this is a better review then the HockeyNews one, it still misses the point.  These moves were about improving the long-term, marginally improvement now and saving cap to help pay bonuses.  I think he accomplished all of that.  Ultimately this deadline, unless we re-sign Simmons which I doubt, will mean Kahun in for a 5th rd pick.  That’s a steal and worthy of a better grade then a C.

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2 minutes ago, Randall Flagg said:

Even with all of this, if our cap genius ends up handcuffing a couple million in cap space next season, I'm justified in being pretty pissed off, right? Especially because of how bad Frolik is haha

Oh, definitely.  

But the thing working in his favor is the only outsider high priced piece he needs to bring in next year will be that 2C and there will likely be almost as much (or possibly more) cap going out to fill that hole.  So, Reinhart being ~$4MM more expensive and Montour being $2MM more expensive along with Larsson & Girgensons adding $1-2MM more between them should still leave room for Dahlin's, Mittelstadt's, & Cozens' bonuses plus enough for a better goalie than Hutton and burying Hutton in Ra-cha-cha.

It would be nice to add a 2nd outside 2nd liner, but that probably isn't critical. 

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8 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

https://theathletic.com/1633235/2020/02/24/final-trade-grades-grading-all-31-nhl-teams-with-trade-season-wrapped-up/


 

While this is a better review then the HockeyNews one, it still misses the point.  These moves were about improving the long-term, marginally improvement now and saving cap to help pay bonuses.  I think he accomplished all of that.  Ultimately this deadline, unless we re-sign Simmons which I doubt, will mean Kahun in for a 5th rd pick.  That’s a steal and worthy of a better grade then a C.

Haven't done the math myself, but NHL Numbers still has the Sabres with negative cap space. If that's correct, the Sabres aren't saving on any of the bonuses at present.

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3 minutes ago, Taro T said:

Haven't done the math myself, but NHL Numbers still has the Sabres with negative cap space. If that's correct, the Sabres aren't saving on any of the bonuses at present.

Didn't Botterill say yesterday that he expects the team to exceed the cap?

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6 minutes ago, Taro T said:

Haven't done the math myself, but NHL Numbers still has the Sabres with negative cap space. If that's correct, the Sabres aren't saving on any of the bonuses at present.

Regardless we sent out 10.142 in annualized cap and only brought in 3.4 in annualized cap. That’s a huge change for the better and saves us $1.69 in actual cap the remainer of the season.

3 minutes ago, Eleven said:

Didn't Botterill say yesterday that he expects the team to exceed the cap?

He did.

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Just now, Eleven said:

Didn't Botterill say yesterday that he expects the team to exceed the cap?

Didn't hear him talk yesterday.  It was reported here that he'd said with the bonuses they'll be over the cap.  If they're under the cap without the bonuses, then they can cover a portion of them out of this year's cap.  

But if they are still over the cap with no realistic possibility of getting Hunwick, Sobotka, nor Thompson healthy then the entire bonus pool will come out of next year's cap.

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4 minutes ago, Randall Flagg said:

Even with all of this, if our cap genius ends up handcuffing a couple million in cap space next season, I'm justified in being pretty pissed off, right? Especially because of how bad Frolik is haha

By reputations are you referring to Bob McKenzie telling us that Berglund and Sobotka were great depth? Because I'd much rather have the Panthers' haul today than I would have liked the Sabres' haul back on July 1st 

Aargh, I should know better than to touch on the trade that should not be named.

Yes, that is exactly what I am referring to (although it was Lebrun, not McKenzie) balanced with the fact Haula is a UFA.

I wouldn’t trade a first for Wallmark, and the two prospects the Canes gave up look pretty similar in value to Tage and a 2nd.

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25 minutes ago, Taro T said:

Mittelstadt had a very slow start but was going at ~1ppg once he finally got going.  Seems he's in a bit of a slump again, but only watched 2 of their last 5, so that might not be accurate.

Still expecting him to be useful next year.

Interesting.  I am not expecting this and will be fairly surprised if it happens. 

 

12 minutes ago, Randall Flagg said:

Even with all of this, if our cap genius ends up handcuffing a couple million in cap space next season, I'm justified in being pretty pissed off, right? Especially because of how bad Frolik is haha

 

By reputations are you referring to Bob McKenzie telling us that Berglund and Sobotka were great depth? Because I'd much rather have the Panthers' haul today than I would have liked the Sabres' haul back on July 1st 

Yes.  If you're the GM in your 3rd year with a team, the team is lousy, you're capped out even after 2 expensive vets bailed on the team and had their contracts terminated, you've brought in a bunch of overpaid, underproducing vets and you're borrowing from next year's cap -- you've done a crappy job with the cap (among other failures).

 

As to your 2nd point -- I think it's fair to say that on paper, TT and a #1 alone were a better return than Florida's return for Trocheck, plus Bergy and Sobotka were seen as having some value.

 

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1 minute ago, Taro T said:

Didn't hear him talk yesterday.  It was reported here that he'd said with the bonuses they'll be over the cap.  If they're under the cap without the bonuses, then they can cover a portion of them out of this year's cap.  

But if they are still over the cap with no realistic possibility of getting Hunwick, Sobotka, nor Thompson healthy then the entire bonus pool will come out of next year's cap.

So we have to get one of those 3 back on the books for this season?

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