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Sabres only deadline thread

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4 minutes ago, Eleven said:

It was announced a couple of or a few weeks ago that Hamilton would be taking a break for health reasons.

He’s back and on WGR right now. 

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I don’t mean to derail the thread, but what does everyone here think of the WGR guys?  I personally can’t listen to them for more than a few minutes, speaking of the morning show and especially Schopp.  Schopp has this smug attitude and presents himself as some genius who’s bored with sports and just says things to stir people up. 

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1 hour ago, Doohickie said:

The numbers say it all:  we're a better team. 

After swing-and-miss Murray, I like incremental improvement Jason.

That what this is about.  Climbing the ladder step by step.

2 years ago this team was the worst in the league.  Last year they were better but after some good hockey they fell apart. Now they have had an up and down season but with better defense and two good forward lines they win when they get decent goaltending and they will be playing meaningful games in March for the first time in years and still have a shot at the playoffs.  
Jbot’s job is to fix the middle six next year and for this team to become a playoff team.

Edited by GASabresIUFAN

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34 minutes ago, Brawndo said:

He’s back and on WGR right now. 

well that's that, then.

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33 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Jbot’s job is to fix the middle six next year and for this team to become a playoff team.

JBot's offseason to-do list (in no particular order)

  • Secure the checking line.  Preferably do this by re-signing Larsson and Girgs.
  • Re-sign core RFAs- Reinhart, Olofsson, Kahun (probably), Montour.  Decide whether to re-sign Lazar or move him (I favor resigning)
  • Bring in a bonafide 2C
  • Fix the middle six (as you said).  Besides a 2C, need to decide who to keep and who to let go among remaining UFAs (Frolik, Simmonds, Vesey).  I think Vesey gets signed; hope for upgrade over Frolik, not sure about Simmonds but easy come, easy go.  Right now the middle six looks like Skinner, Mojo, Kahun, possibly Lazar and Vesey.  Need 2-4 new players (including previously mentioned 2C).  Does anyone promote from the farm?  Thompson, Asplund, Mitts all waiting in the wings, possibly Cozens making the leap.  I think the JBot philosophy is to keep them down until they are more than ripe.
  • Sort out the goalie situation.  Default is Ullmark/Hutton, a tandem that has been spotty at best this year.  What can JBot do to improve/stabilize our goalie situation?
Edited by Doohickie
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9 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

We could have traded a lottery protected 1st.  

Let’s say that getting a 2C at this deadline was reasonably possible but it would have cost say Miller and a lottery protected first. 
Now lets say given Toronto’s and Florida’s issues that 2C would get us to the playoffs this season.  Pilut can replace Miller without much of a drop in play.  The 1st would then be at best the 16th overall pick.  That player mostly likely would be 2-3 years from making an impact on an NHL roster.  We honestly can’t wait that long for a mid level first to make an impact when we could compete for a playoff spot now.

From a draft perspective, let’s say that the 2C only helps us play meaningful games but we come up just short.  In that scenario the pick moves to 2020 and he is therefore 3-4 years from making an impact. 

I’m not crushed that he didn’t get the 2C, but had been able to find that guy now, the team would have been better off.

I would much rather know the first's value than trade it with protection. Because if it were to win a top three slot, all of a sudden the Sabres have more net asset value in their organization, by quite a bit, compared to if it was 9th or something. 

I know that that would still hold true technically with lottery protection, but then we already have a player that was worth a "meh" first rounder. But in my case, we could now trade a player worth a GREAT first rounder (and add some stuff) 

Edited by Randall Flagg

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It's an Athletic article about the Canadiens, but very relevant to the point @weave has been making.

“We’re losing players today because, for the first two thirds or three quarters of the season, we haven’t been able to get the results that we needed to show management that we’re able to make a push,” said Brendan Gallagher. “That’s our job. We understand that they sit there and they analyze the situations. There is certainly no give up in this locker room, but obviously, the probability of us making the playoffs goes down, so they make the adjustments to reload. You know, we’re still going to continue to play, continue to win games, but the message is that we’re not where we want to be, and that’s why you lose players today and you don’t add.”

Hockey players are paid to gut it out, to fight until the end, to believe. That’s harder to do when a GM decides not only that he’s not going to pay to bring in reinforcements, he’s going to sell off some of his wares.

This also applies to the discussion about the WGR guys: their ongoing point can be summed up as "sometime it has to start to be about winning" but they are so jaded that they don't realize that's basically what this deadline — and indeed this season, in an at-times painful, fumbling Botterill fashion — has been about for Jason.

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12 hours ago, TrueBlueGED said:

Just some general expectations; I'm not going to quibble over two points here or there because hockey is so flukey. But if organizational message has real value, you'd think we could approximately hold serve (6 points out), right? If the team shoots/saves crazy percentages (good or bad) over the final 20, obviously the final standings results would be quite a bit different. But if they shoot/save at rates representative of the first 62 games, 4-8 points out would be holding serve, 3 or less an improvement 9 or more the proverbial sprint to the golf course. 

It does. Come on. Google "group motivational theory" or "human motivational theory". This type of stuff has been studied to death. How about just searching for "psychology of human group behavior" - you may find that has been studied a little as well.

Whether it contributes to the Xbox GM mode mindset is a different matter.

The trend in recent seasons for the Sabres has been to blow it this time of year. What's to say the net effect of the organizational message, then, is to "hold serve" as you put it, which, comparatively would be an improvement. Would that justify internal attempts at motivation?

If we are to learn anything from the entire ROR saga, it's that the grind these guys go through exacts a toll on them. The organization has real people to deal with who are under real pressure over a protracted period. But, obviously, and again, this type of stuff has been studied and studied. It's among the factors in team success that are apparently ignored by fancy stats, but should not be. 

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4 minutes ago, dudacek said:

that's basically what this deadline — and indeed this season, in an at-times painful, fumbling Botterill fashion — has been about for Jason.

After the ROR trade and other early trades, JBot might have been considered an easy mark, a GM that the other GMs could push around.  If.... IF.... the Sabres make the playoffs, this trade deadline might be seen as JBot's line in the sand moment.  He didn't trade (much) all season long because the right deal wasn't there.  He made only a couple small moves at the deadline because the right deal wasn't there.  If the team succeeds and makes it into the playoffs, it could earn him some credibility that he knows how to build a team, he's learned when to take what you can get and when to stand pat.  If he manages to sign both Larsson and Girgensons, it will validate his decisions.  This could be a turning point for the team, and if it is, it will also be a turning point for JBot's career as a GM.

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9 minutes ago, ... said:

It's among the factors in team success that are apparently ignored by fancy stats, but should not be.

It could be some of the mumbo jumbo that I'm suspicious of in RFK's repertoire. That squishy soft human behavior self help stuff that sounds like marketing/sales pitch snake oil stuff.  Cynical old me doesn't trust it, but if the young guys buy in, it could be the thing that helps this team finally turn the corner.

Edited by Doohickie

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8 minutes ago, Doohickie said:

After the ROR trade and other early trades, JBot might have been considered an easy mark, a GM that the other GMs could push around.  If.... IF.... the Sabres make the playoffs, this trade deadline might be seen as JBot's line in the sand moment.  He didn't trade (much) all season long because the right deal wasn't there.  He made only a couple small moves at the deadline because the right deal wasn't there.  If the team succeeds and makes it into the playoffs, it could earn him some credibility that he knows how to build a team, he's learned when to take what you can get and when to stand pat.  If he manages to sign both Larsson and Girgensons, it will validate his decisions.  This could be a turning point for the team, and if it is, it will also be a turning point for JBot's career as a GM.

I've never really had an issue with Jason's people managing skills or his plan to rebuild the Sabres.

Always it has come down to his ability to identify and acquire NHL talent. He needs Kahun to be more Satan/Briere than Sheary/Vesey.

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5 minutes ago, Doohickie said:

It could be some of the mumbo jumbo that I'm suspicious of in RFK's repertoire. That squishy soft human behavior self help stuff that sounds like marketing/sales pitch snake oil stuff.  Cynical old me doesn't trust it, but if the young guys buy in, it could be the thing that helps this team finally turn the corner.

There's the snake-oil stuff, but then there is actual statistically derived mechanisms employed to motivate groups of people. Whether a method works on a particular group is contextual and circumstantial, with a host of variables to consider. Ultimately it's no different than any other attempt to manipulate human behavior, the same type of "stuff" (in part) that is applied to advertising and political campaigns. I can imagine with a hockey team it's far more complex and dynamic and that, ideally, they first need to try and get the majority of the group to a relative baseline before being able to find what works. It has to be fascinating for people who study these things.

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Do we have a cap penalty coming up next year? Was listening to a podcast that seemed to suggest that despite the roster moves we don't have enough cap room to pay ELC bonuses.

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2 hours ago, Brawndo said:

He’s back and on WGR right now. 

And adding zero value.   When asked who had a better trade deadline - NJD or Ottawa he asked Marty who had more First round picks returned.  Seriously?   If your paid to comment, I need you to know a little about who they traded and what was the return, and secondly, a little more insight.  Horrible Hammy.  Time to hang those Iowa State skates up. 

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So, I'm deliberating over whether the Sabres should've tried harder to get Trocheck.

Carolina didn't give up that much to get him -- the 2 prospects (a D and a C) look roughly equivalent to Borgen and Asplund, plus a decent pending UFA forward and a 24-year-old C who is 6'0", 178 lbs, in his 2nd full NHL season and who looks like maybe a 30-point guy.

Since Carolina got 2 young forwards (plus a pending UFA forward) and 1 D, it's quite possible that they wanted forwards more than they wanted D, which would've worked to the Sabres' disadvantage.  Presumably, they wouldn't have been interested in Malone or Ogilvie or Ruotsaleinen.  It's quite possible that JB would've needed to include Mittlestadt to get it done.

So -- if the trade had been Mittlestadt, Borgen and Zemgus for Trocheck, would it have been well received here?  I would've been fine with it -- but if the Sabres had made the trade and then Trocheck looked like Moulson or Okposo next year, while Mitts lit it up in Florida, that would've been a debacle.

It's JB's job to get this kind of decision right.  So far he hasn't done so nearly enough, but he might've been right on this one.

 

 

 

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What about Risto, Asplund, and something?

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2 minutes ago, steveoath said:

Do we have a cap penalty coming up next year? Was listening to a podcast that seemed to suggest that despite the roster moves we don't have enough cap room to pay ELC bonuses.

JBot said we will likely have to carry over something to pay Jokiharju and Dahlin performance bonuses. He didn't specify, but implied it won't be significant.

 

Just now, nfreeman said:

So, I'm deliberating over whether the Sabres should've tried harder to get Trocheck.

Carolina didn't give up that much to get him -- the 2 prospects (a D and a C) look roughly equivalent to Borgen and Asplund, plus a decent pending UFA forward and a 24-year-old C who is 6'0", 178 lbs, in his 2nd full NHL season and who looks like maybe a 30-point guy.

Since Carolina got 2 young forwards (plus a pending UFA forward) and 1 D, it's quite possible that they wanted forwards more than they wanted D, which would've worked to the Sabres' disadvantage.  Presumably, they wouldn't have been interested in Malone or Ogilvie or Ruotsaleinen.  It's quite possible that JB would've needed to include Mittlestadt to get it done.

So -- if the trade had been Mittlestadt, Borgen and Zemgus for Trocheck, would it have been well received here?  I would've been fine with it -- but if the Sabres had made the trade and then Trocheck looked like Moulson or Okposo next year, while Mitts lit it up in Florida, that would've been a debacle.

It's JB's job to get this kind of decision right.  So far he hasn't done so nearly enough, but he might've been right on this one.

 

 

 

There are two ways to look at this:

1) the package looked like something we could have beat and Jason missed an opportunity.

2) the package needed to beat it involved a player Jason wasn't willing to part with so he stuck to his guns.

If it was the latter then that means it was a talent evaluation decision where he valued a prospect better than Trochek and only time will show if he was right. Most of us are pretty sure he puts more value on Casey, for example, than his play to date warrants. Some of us are pretty cautious of Trochek's recent play.

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24 minutes ago, steveoath said:

Do we have a cap penalty coming up next year? Was listening to a podcast that seemed to suggest that despite the roster moves we don't have enough cap room to pay ELC bonuses.

I thought after the trades yesterday we have enough space to fit in any bonuses, but I could be wrong. 

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21 minutes ago, nfreeman said:

So, I'm deliberating over whether the Sabres should've tried harder to get Trocheck.

Carolina didn't give up that much to get him -- the 2 prospects (a D and a C) look roughly equivalent to Borgen and Asplund, plus a decent pending UFA forward and a 24-year-old C who is 6'0", 178 lbs, in his 2nd full NHL season and who looks like maybe a 30-point guy.

Since Carolina got 2 young forwards (plus a pending UFA forward) and 1 D, it's quite possible that they wanted forwards more than they wanted D, which would've worked to the Sabres' disadvantage.  Presumably, they wouldn't have been interested in Malone or Ogilvie or Ruotsaleinen.  It's quite possible that JB would've needed to include Mittlestadt to get it done.

So -- if the trade had been Mittlestadt, Borgen and Zemgus for Trocheck, would it have been well received here?  I would've been fine with it -- but if the Sabres had made the trade and then Trocheck looked like Moulson or Okposo next year, while Mitts lit it up in Florida, that would've been a debacle.

It's JB's job to get this kind of decision right.  So far he hasn't done so nearly enough, but he might've been right on this one.

 

 

 

There was a post earlier that we made a “better” offer for Trocheck then Carolina did, but Tallon wasn’t going to trade him inside the division especially to the team right behind him in the standings.  Can you imagine the heat he would take if he trades us Trocheck and Trocheck finds his game here and we make a run to the playoffs jumping both his Panthers and Leafs in the process.  He’s get fired.

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3 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

There was a post earlier that we made a “better” offer for Trocheck then Carolina did, but Tallon wasn’t going to trade him inside the division especially to the team right behind him in the standings.  Can you imagine the heat he would take if he trades us Trocheck and Trocheck finds his game here and we make a run to the playoffs jumping both his Panthers and Leafs in the process.  He’s get fired.

I think someone reasonably reputable reported on Twitter that the Sabres thought they had made a better offer for Trocheck than Carolina's was.  Then, someone here posted that the reasoning was likely the intra-division factor.

While I agree that the intra-division factor probably played some role, I think it's pretty likely that if the Sabres' offer had been materially better -- which doesn't look like that high of a bar to clear -- Florida would've taken it. 

As I posted above, I also think it's pretty likely that Florida wanted forwards, and therefore that JB would've needed to give up Mittlestadt (or maybe TT), and that JB wasn't willing to do so.  I can understand that decision, but OTOH it's fairly likely that we'll look back in 5 years and be very PO'd that we didn't give up Mitts for Trocheck.

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Just now, nfreeman said:

I think someone reasonably reputable reported on Twitter that the Sabres thought they had made a better offer for Trocheck than Carolina's was.  Then, someone here posted that the reasoning was likely the intra-division factor.

While I agree that the intra-division factor probably played some role, I think it's pretty likely that if the Sabres' offer had been materially better -- which doesn't look like that high of a bar to clear -- Florida would've taken it. 

As I posted above, I also think it's pretty likely that Florida wanted forwards, and therefore that JB would've needed to give up Mittlestadt (or maybe TT), and that JB wasn't willing to do so.  I can understand that decision, but OTOH it's fairly likely that we'll look back in 5 years and be very PO'd that we didn't give up Mitts for Trocheck.

That was Chad, who I don't like and who has been misleading before. But, he broke Scandella to St. Louis before it was reported, and broke Evan Rodrigues to Pittsburgh yesterday. You have the right summary of what he said. Though, it was that the SABRES felt their offer was better, not necessarily that Florida deemed it that way but looked away from the division instead. But that is reasonable speculation.

I think Jason is going to find a 2C this summer. We can't be sure he'll be a good 2C, but I don't think Jason is going to let the offseason slip away without making the move like he did last year. 

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4 minutes ago, nfreeman said:

I think someone reasonably reputable reported on Twitter that the Sabres thought they had made a better offer for Trocheck than Carolina's was.  Then, someone here posted that the reasoning was likely the intra-division factor.

While I agree that the intra-division factor probably played some role, I think it's pretty likely that if the Sabres' offer had been materially better -- which doesn't look like that high of a bar to clear -- Florida would've taken it. 

As I posted above, I also think it's pretty likely that Florida wanted forwards, and therefore that JB would've needed to give up Mittlestadt (or maybe TT), and that JB wasn't willing to do so.  I can understand that decision, but OTOH it's fairly likely that we'll look back in 5 years and be very PO'd that we didn't give up Mitts for Trocheck.

I don't know, man, I think you're off the mark a little. Here's why:

If the difference was the inclusion of TT or Mitts, what a small price to pay to recover from the ROR travesty. By making that trade (with the inclusion of either), he nearly instantly would reset his reputation and likely improve the Sabres' short-term prospects. I think even Botterill makes that move all day long.

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Just now, ... said:

I don't know, man, I think you're off the mark a little. Here's why:

If the difference was the inclusion of TT or Mitts, what a small price to pay to recover from the ROR travesty. By making that trade (with the inclusion of either), he nearly instantly would reset his reputation and likely improve the Sabres' short-term prospects. I think even Botterill makes that move all day long.

He said in the press conference he wouldn't make moves for these reasons, and rightfully so. Everyone is so ready to throw away Mittelstadt even though he's been very good in the AHL lately. If I'm moving him as part of a package it's for better than Trocheck and not to smooth Botterill's reputation via a run at 8th place.

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18 minutes ago, triumph_communes said:

I thought after the trades yesterday we have enough space to fit in any bonuses, but I could be wrong. 

Bonuses do not necessarily need to fit in the current year. To the the extent they make the club go over the max limit, this amount is subtracted from the clubs max salary cap in the next season.

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Just now, WildCard said:

He said in the press conference he wouldn't make moves for these reasons, and rightfully so. Everyone is so ready to throw away Mittelstadt even though he's been very good in the AHL lately. If I'm moving him as part of a package it's for better than Trocheck and not to smooth Botterill's reputation via a run at 8th place.

Inkman and Ogre are both comparing his AHL stint to that of Nylander fwiw. 

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