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Non Sabres Deadline Trades/Rumors

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8 minutes ago, WildCard said:

His possession and point totals look the same as they've ever been. Does anyone have a tool that can show us some more info?

I'd be interested in some analysis too.

4 minutes ago, dudacek said:

The way Corsi is embraced and +/- dismissed when they have exactly the same flaws is an ongoing mystery to me, particularly when +/- measures the all-important goal, while Corsi measures the much-less significant shot.

Whatever it’s value, the guy has improved his +/- by 40. Saying he’s having the exact same season is willfully blind.

He's playing about 2 minutes fewer per night this season than he ever did previously, yet putting up about the same amount of points and taking a LOT less minuses. It could be a product of reduced ice time and not playing against team's top players so often, but I'd need to see some info supporting that.

Anecdotally, I've watched most of these games this year and I simply haven't found myself going "Risto you idiot" at the TV nearly as often as I have in the past.

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Just now, darksabre said:

I'd be interested in some analysis too.

He's playing about 2 minutes fewer per night this season than he ever did previously, yet putting up about the same amount of points and taking a LOT less minuses. It could be a product of reduced ice time and not playing against team's top players so often, but I'd need to see some info supporting that.

Anecdotally, I've watched most of these games this year and I simply haven't found myself going "Risto you idiot" at the TV nearly as often as I have in the past.

The big improvement is the lack of missed break-out passes from Risto and needless icings.  The whole idea that the player may not have been awful, he was just so dog tired and had no confidence in his defensive partners all the time he developed a lot of bad habits has tons of merit.

 

But don't forget, fancy stats had Scandella as the worst player in the league by far who then turned around to be top-10 in the league in one off-season.  The predictive capability of these stats has a cpk of 0.00

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13 hours ago, LTS said:

What's the relative +/- on that being accurate?

Jason Botterill: "Hey, it says you guys have a guy with "check" in his name.  Our PR staff thinks we can spell his name right on a sweater, interested in trading him?"

How long before he has to wear a sweater with TROCHUCK on the back during a game?  

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23 minutes ago, dudacek said:

The way Corsi is embraced and +/- dismissed when they have exactly the same flaws is an ongoing mystery to me, particularly when +/- measures the all-important goal, while Corsi measures the much-less significant shot.

Whatever it’s value, the guy has improved his +/- by 40. Saying he’s having the exact same season is willfully blind.

+/- measures goals in certain situations. Goals are rare. Shot events are more common and therefore give you more data points. It helps eliminate noise. 

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18 minutes ago, dudacek said:

The way Corsi is embraced and +/- dismissed when they have exactly the same flaws is an ongoing mystery to me, particularly when +/- measures the all-important goal, while Corsi measures the much-less significant shot.

Whatever it’s value, the guy has improved his +/- by 40. Saying he’s having the exact same season is willfully blind.

It shouldn't be. It takes about 5 seasons worth of goal data to produce results which are as predictive as 1 season of shot data (it might not be exactly 5:1, but it's something like that). Goal data is heavily influenced by shooting and save percentages, both of which vary wildly from year to year and take a long time to show a coherent pattern we can reasonably draw inferences from. 

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1 hour ago, darksabre said:

Montour is fine. He's like Sekera. 

Yup.  A very apt comparison.And, switching gears slightly, much like Spacek, pretty sure it takes a lot of D the better part of a full season to get acclimated to their new surroundings.  Spacek - 2006: benched in the playoffs.  Spacek - 2007: team captain during the Winter Classic.

Edited by Taro T
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58 minutes ago, Randall Flagg said:

update:
Team Montour is fine: nfreeman, darksabre, Flagg, dudacek, pi2000, DarthEbriate, WC
Team middle ground: Swamp, True, freester
Team Montour sucks: inkman, so many posters in random GDTs that I just can't remember who said what, but I swear there are a lot of 'em 

Montour is fine.

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3 minutes ago, Randall Flagg said:

t.thumb.jpg.e3f8fefe7df38c81d0a5af8f3c6366fd.jpg

Da fack is dat?

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Question?

Given the demand for D right now, what are Risto’s, Montour’s, Miller and McCabe’s trade value.  Who has the most?  What top 6 forward can we get for one? From another teams’ perspective all have term at reasonable $ except Montour who is an RFA and shouldn’t break the bank to re-sign. This adds to their value. 

I like our top 6 D.  I think with Pilut waiting, we can afford to trade at least one to upgrade in the top 6 forwards.

I think our two best trade chips to upgrade our top 6 and get a 2C are a conditional 1st and one of those 4 D.  Thoughts?

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Just now, JimS said:

It's Torchic. 🙂

Forgive me for speaking for Taro, but I repeat the question.

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7 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Question?

Given the demand for D right now, what are Risto’s, Montour’s, Miller and McCabe’s trade value.  Who has the most?  What top 6 forward can we get for one? From another teams’ perspective all have term at reasonable $ except Montour who is an RFA and shouldn’t break the bank to re-sign. This adds to their value. 

I like our top 6 D.  I think with Pilut waiting, we can afford to trade at least one to upgrade in the top 6 forwards.

I think our two best trade chips to upgrade our top 6 and get a 2C are a conditional 1st and one of those 4 D.  Thoughts?

I would not trade our !st round pick.  I'm worried that Montour is going to get paid 6 million/year by us.  I agree that to get a 2C we will have to trade MIller or Montour.  I would prefer to keep Risto since he is the only physical presence on the wimpiest team in the league.

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3 minutes ago, JimS said:

It's Torchic. 🙂

After some research --- Torchic's really going to need put on height and weight in the offseason to be effective in the corners.

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3 minutes ago, DarthEbriate said:

After some research --- Torchic's really going to need put on height and weight in the offseason to be effective in the corners.

It looks like he eventually evolves into Blaziken, who is 6' 3" but only 115 pounds. So, he translates into a center. 🙂

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2 minutes ago, freester said:

I would not trade our !st round pick.  I'm worried that Montour is going to get paid 6 million/year by us.  I agree that to get a 2C we will have to trade MIller or Montour.  I would prefer to keep Risto since he is the only physical presence on the wimpiest team in the league.

Agreed - we need our pick this year. But I wouldn't worry about Montour's salary escalating like that... his numbers don't bear that out. He doesn't play PP and points are what really pay.

Risto is our best asset to trade. He has played point on PP,  has put up 40+ points, and he's 6'4" and strong. He can't fight but he can be physical. He's played huge minutes at times, but has shown he can't handle it over a season -- put for a playoff run, possibly. Like you, I would prefer not to move him either because he balances our soft defense, but he gets the most from another team.

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53 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

+/- measures goals in certain situations. Goals are rare. Shot events are more common and therefore give you more data points. It helps eliminate noise. 

I understand why analysts prefer it; it’s easier to model.

It’s still flawed like plus-minus because it calls players into account for things they have no control over and fails to do the same for things they do.

Risto makes a horrible giveaway at the offensive blueline sending Pageau off on a breakaway. Pageau goes for the deke, the puck slips off his stick and dribbles into the corner. Risto’s Corsi is neutral.

Montour makes a horrible giveaway at the offensive blueline sending Pageau off on a breakaway. Risto hustles back hard and forces Pageau out wide where he can only get off a harmless bad angle shot easily handled by Hutton. Risto gets a negative Corsi.

Joki makes a nice breakout pass to Larry and heads off on a change. Larry and the boys grind the Sens down for the next 30 seconds, peppering Anderson with four shots before he finally smothers the puck for a whistle. Risto comes on for Joki and stands at the blueline watching all this happen and gets a plus four Corsi.

Montour takes a shot off the ankle and is hobbling around in pain, useless. Tkachuk drives the net forcing Risto to play the 2-1 situation. He does this well, making Tkachuk shoot, which Hutton stops. Risto overpowers Tkachuk as he gets the rebound, pushing him off balance as he gets off a soft tapper on the rebound which Hutton blocks and swallows up the loose puck. Risto’s Corsi count, minus 2.

Corsi might be a better data management model, or predictive model, but as a data collection model, it shares all the flaws of +/-.

Im pretty sure guys like you understand this, just like you understand that all Risto’s “horrible” 47 per cent Corsi really means is that the Sabres are typically outshot 33-27 over 60 minutes of his even strength ice time.

But I’m also pretty sure the 14-year-old screaming about how terrible he is on Twitter does not. In the arena of public opinion it creates more noise than it eliminates.

Edited by dudacek

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^ add in that pucks are cylinders instead of balls, ruts in the ice, refs who pocket their whistles in tie games once the 3rd period starts or try to even out the calls so they're not to blame, fighting is permitted but not punishable by ejection, and dashers and uprights that create caroms... its charm is that it may be the most chaotic sport in the world. Measuring it should be in how many times you're on the edge of your seat, how often you don't look at your phone, and your heart rate.

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39 minutes ago, dudacek said:

I understand why analysts prefer it; it’s easier to model.

It’s still flawed like plus-minus because it calls players into account for things they have no control over and fails to do the same for things they do.

Risto makes a horrible giveaway at the offensive blueline sending Pageau off on a breakaway. Pageau goes for the deke, the puck slips off his stick and dribbles into the corner. Risto’s Corsi is neutral.

Montour makes a horrible giveaway at the offensive blueline sending Pageau off on a breakaway. Risto hustles back hard and forces Pageau out wide where he can only get off a harmless bad angle shot easily handled by Hutton. Risto gets a negative Corsi.

Joki makes a nice breakout pass to Larry and heads off on a change. Larry and the boys grind the Sens down for the next 30 seconds, peppering Anderson with four shots before he finally smothers the puck for a whistle. Risto comes on for Joki and stands at the blueline watching all this happen and gets a plus four Corsi.

Montour takes a shot off the ankle and is hobbling around in pain, useless. Tkachuk drives the net forcing Risto to play the 2-1 situation. He does this well, making Tkachuk shoot, which Hutton stops. Risto overpowers Tkachuk as he gets the rebound, pushing him off balance as he gets off a soft tapper on the rebound which Hutton blocks and swallows up the loose puck. Risto’s Corsi count, minus 2.

Corsi might be a better data management model, or predictive model, but as a data collection model, it shares all the flaws of +/-.

Im pretty sure guys like you understand this, just like you understand that all Risto’s “horrible” 47 per cent Corsi really means is that the Sabres are typically outshot 33-27 over 60 minutes of his even strength ice time.

But I’m also pretty sure the 14-year-old screaming about how terrible he is on Twitter does not. In the arena of public opinion it creates more noise than it eliminates.

You know you're on the wrong side of an argument when you have to do this

And that hypothetical 6 shot differential is significant over time. To make life easy, let's say Risto plays 20 minutes per game. That's 2 shots per game, or 164 over the course of the season. At a league average shooting of 9.11, you're looking at about 15 goals. That's significant. 

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2 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

Lol, you think a 25 year old player with over 200 nhl games is going to "get better" to any worthwhile degree.  Lol sure. 

Oh he'll be 26 in april. Even better. Wish Reinhart had his magical powers of improvement. Oh well. 

Montour will improve because he plays like he cares, with heart. Can't say the same for Reinhart.

Let me guess... you were one of those who bashed the Josh Allen pick? 

Do you agree or disagree that heart and passion for the game play a significant role in a player reaching his potential? 

How do you measure heart and what role does it play when you rank prospects?

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2 hours ago, WildCard said:

Well then it will probably shock you to learn that Ristolainen is on course for the exact same season he's had for the last 4 years of his career.

 

wrong donald trump GIF

His TRpm has improved dramatically.

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12 minutes ago, pi2000 said:

Montour will improve because he plays like he cares, with heart. Can't say the same for Reinhart.

Let me guess... you were one of those who bashed the Josh Allen pick? 

Do you agree or disagree that heart and passion for the game play a significant role in a player reaching his potential? 

How do you measure heart and what role does it play when you rank prospects?

Pretending there is a discernible, let alone significant difference in the "heart" shown in NHL action by Montour and Reinhart might be the most pi2000 thing I've ever seen 

especially when followed one post later by the Trump GIF

Edited by Randall Flagg

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