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#freejame

Sam Reinhart and Brad Marchand— A basic contract comparison

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13 hours ago, Taro T said:

When you do this, please also remove Reinhart from O'Reilly.  Sam and Ryan clicked better (at the time) than Eichel and Sam clicked.  And ROR isn't coming back, so that should be discounted from the evaluation.

I am looking at 2018-2020. Since ROR was not on the team in 2018 this takes care of itself. I am not excluding Skinner because at some point we have to let Reinhart have someone to play with. 

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This looks at Sam Reinhart and Jack Eichel from 2018-2020. This is for 5v5 against all teams. 

Jack and Sam have played 1564 minutes together. Reinhart has played 528 minutes without Eichel. That is about 1/3 of a regular full season. 

J+S = Jack and Sam together

S-J= Sam minus Jack

J+S has a better CF% at 51.95 compared to S-J being at 50.97%. xGF% is also slightly higher with J+S at 51.76 and S-J at 49.73%. Scoring Chance For (SCF%) seems to be the biggest gap. There is a 52.33% for J+S and only a 48.11% for S-J. Continuing HDCF% sees J+S at 52.85% and S-J at 51.35%. The final one for this part is off zone  faceoff percent where J+S are at 61.31% but S-J is at 57.51. 

So what does this part mean? Generally speaking, Jack + Sam have better numbers than Sam - Jack. On average that difference is... 2.1825% better when Sam and Jack are playing together than when Reinhart is playing without Eichel at all. So as we can see, Eichel with Sam is better. 

Let's get to part 2. Jack without Sam(J-S) and Sam without Jack (S-J). 

We already have some good numbers for Reinhart without Eichel. We have his CF% at 50.97%, xGF% at 49. 73%, SCF% at 48.11%, and HDCF% at 51.35%, Off Zone strt% at 57.51

Let's take a look at J-S and see how that lines up. We have CF% at 48.68%, xGF% 51.14%, SCF% at 48.69%, and HDCF% at 54.19%. Finally let's add on Off Zone strt% at 62.95

So what does this tell us? Well is tells us that even though Eichel starts in the offensive zone more than Reinhart, Reinhart has managed a better Corsi. Eichel is clearly the better goal scorer as we see the xGF number in eichels favor. Eichel is +1.41 when away from Sam. That is interesting as we have been told how well they work together and yet Reinhart with Eichel produced a lower expected goal rate. It also coincides with a slightly lower scoring chance rate with Jack - Sam at .58 higher. Now where it gets really interesting is the HDCF%. So basically this looks at shots taken from high danger areas of the ice. As has been shown by countless models and research, there are more dangerous areas of the ice than others. Sam Reinhart by himself is -2.84% compared to Eichel by himself. So generally when Jack is not with Sam his ability to generate these chances goes up. 

Okay let us summarize all this. Jack and Sam are not out of this world together but do slightly elevate the others game. They average a 52.223 across the 4 stats that I am looking at. This is compared to Eichel at 50.675 and Sam at 50.04 across the same 4 stats averaged together. Corsi for and HDCF seem to be something Sam excels at. This makes sense to me because he is criminally underrated with making little plays that get the puck to the net or to someone who will get the puck to the net. Eichel being also good at HDCF makes sense because of his skating/stickhandling/shot. That leads us to the next stats of xGF% and SCF% in which Eichel was better without Sam. The expected goals % makes the most sense because Eichel has a really good shot and does get to use it in dangerous places. We see Sam with a deficit without Eichel's shot on the ice. SCF% was also in favor of Jack by himself. As with HDCF this makes sense. Interesting was that Sam rated this as his best category. I think that has to do with the little plays and Sam being in front of the net. He gets and generates a lot of HDCF. 

The final number I saved until the end is Goals For / Goals Against or GF%. Jack and Sam together have a 53.42. Jack minus Sam has a 53.13, so barely a blip on his radar. Sam minus Jack drops to 51.06.  So generally speaking Eichel is getting more goals and seeing less against with Sam and without Sam. Sam is a little less here and again, I think we know that Eichel is the better player so that makes sense. However we have heard it reported on here that Reinhart is lazy and trash in the defensive end in particular and if that were the case the underlying numbers would show us that. They really don't. His corsi, HDCF%, and GF% don't show us a player that without Jack falls off the cliff. I took a look at Skinner in this as well. Jeff and Jack together is good. Jeff and Sam together is bad. Sam without Jack and Jeff is surprisingly good. 

All in all my conclusion is that Reinhart works with just about everyone away from Jack (except Skinner in limited minutes. That looked bad).  Reinhart helps elevate Eichel and Eichel helps elevate Reinhart. The difference is not that much and Sam has good underlying numbers in the 528 minutes he played without Eichel. Is Sam dependent on Jack for scoring? No. Reinhart would produce on his own with any decent linemates. Reinhart runs a 2.727gp/60 alone and a 2.992 with Eichel. That isn't a massive gap at all. Does Eichel need Reinhart on his wing, again no. Eichel would produce still (4.048gp/60). Should we be worried about giving Reinhart a contract based on his play with Eichel "inflating his stats"? I would say no because Reinhart should work well with any center we bring in and produce at a similar level. What this does not account for is strength of competition. If we had a line of Olofsson - Cozens - Reinhart they would play against other teams 2nd lines and pairings compared to the Skinner - Eichel - ????? line. This I think would balance out the scoring "drop" some have suggested. My only conclusion then is that Reinhart can and does produce shots and scoring chances away from Eichel and does not get caved in defensively. Therefore he will be worth the 7million dollars he gets at the end of the year. 

I picked high danger corsi for % (HDCF%), expected goals % (xGF%), scoring chance % (SCF%) and goals for % (GF%) because I wanted a mix of stats that have some prediction values. Goals are a relatively rare event in hockey so shot metrics tend to tell us a little more. I used the percentages because they help normalize numbers. You can see the for and against in the percentages. Also these numbers were readily available on Nat Stat Trick for use and I could easily separate the players. I almost included a couple more like on ice shooting % but we know Eichel is a better shot so again, it would have been redundant. Finally I calculated the goals per 60 minutes number for each player. I think this helps us see that Eichel is very good and Sam is good. We can separate them with no ill effects on the team and in all likelihood, better overall scoring on the team. 

Edited by LGR4GM

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On 2/8/2020 at 11:18 AM, LGR4GM said:

Ok then you've ignored all the underlying stats that show Sam actually is better away from Jack. Ideally I'd put skinner or olofsson with Reinhart and Eichel with skinner or olofsson. That would be my forward pairing idea. 

Since I looked at the numbers, Reinhart is slightly worse away from Eichel. Eichel is just as good if not better without Reinhart. My Conclusion is that Skinner should play with Eichel and Olofsson and Reinhart should be on your 2nd line with a decent center. I think Cozens would actually fit well in here but that is another debate for another day. So Sam is not better away from Eichel, nor is he much worse. 

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Sam hater disclaimer--

 

Sam plays better away from Eichel.  I think this is a mental problem of Sam's and if he was elite he would have gotten over it by now, but the reality is he defers to Eichel so much that he forgets he can play hockey himself.  Our coach has kept them together every minute of the season at even strength though, so it's easy to forget this.

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2 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

Since I looked at the numbers, Reinhart is slightly worse away from Eichel. Eichel is just as good if not better without Reinhart. My Conclusion is that Skinner should play with Eichel and Olofsson and Reinhart should be on your 2nd line with a decent center. I think Cozens would actually fit well in here but that is another debate for another day. So Sam is not better away from Eichel, nor is he much worse. 

Nice effort on pulling this, especially considering the O'Reilly factor.  I think the assumptions are fair that if you included a top rated center with his numbers in 2016/17 they might be show better.  But this also mean the inverse is true.  You take into account that the 2018-19 lines where Jack has a slightly better Goals for, High danger, etc and assume that when not paired with Sam, Jack was playing with Jeff most of this time.  (I believe 20% of his TOI was with Jeff, and not Sam).   While Sam was playing with Casey, Evan, Conor, Vlad and Tage when not with Jack.  (Shown below as a % of total on ice for 2018/19).  The results displayed for a positive Corsi and only a slightly worse than scoring for are not bad considering the caliber of center and wingers he played with.  I would love to try to see how this manifested in this years numbers, but unfortunately a stubborn RK refuses to pair Jack with Jeff, and split Sam from Jack so who knows.   Either way, the numbers to me show that if paired with a competent center (2C) and a better than average LW (Johansson) Sam has a positive upside to the analysis provided.   

 sam.thumb.JPG.1886987164dced4d32b44113e7e87ebb.JPG

 

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3 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

This looks at Sam Reinhart and Jack Eichel from 2018-2020. This is for 5v5 against all teams.

This whole post was very nice and well done.  Thank you for the effort.

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1 hour ago, Broken Ankles said:

Nice effort on pulling this, especially considering the O'Reilly factor.  I think the assumptions are fair that if you included a top rated center with his numbers in 2016/17 they might be show better.  But this also mean the inverse is true.  You take into account that the 2018-19 lines where Jack has a slightly better Goals for, High danger, etc and assume that when not paired with Sam, Jack was playing with Jeff most of this time.  (I believe 20% of his TOI was with Jeff, and not Sam).   While Sam was playing with Casey, Evan, Conor, Vlad and Tage when not with Jack.  (Shown below as a % of total on ice for 2018/19).  The results displayed for a positive Corsi and only a slightly worse than scoring for are not bad considering the caliber of center and wingers he played with.  I would love to try to see how this manifested in this years numbers, but unfortunately a stubborn RK refuses to pair Jack with Jeff, and split Sam from Jack so who knows.   Either way, the numbers to me show that if paired with a competent center (2C) and a better than average LW (Johansson) Sam has a positive upside to the analysis provided.   

 sam.thumb.JPG.1886987164dced4d32b44113e7e87ebb.JPG

 

What do you mean O'Reilly factor? 

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37 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

What do you mean O'Reilly factor? 

Meaning if Sam was not playing with Jack, but was playing with O'Reilly (2015-2018), the results would have been similar to those with Jack.  Taro was concerned about the results if Sam was playing alongside ROR.    By using 2018/2019 data that removes ROR from the equation, I'm suggesting that using his replacements were less than replacement level 2C, so that should be considered in the result/numbers you provided of Sam without Jack.    

Edited by Broken Ankles
cleaned up

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Season GF GA diff  GF/GP GA/GP

15-16 201 222 -21 2.45 2.71

16-17 201 237 -36 2.45 2.89

17-18 199 280 -81 2.42 3.41

18-19 225 271 -46 2.74 3.30

19-20 162 178 -16 2.84 3.12

So the ROR, Kane, Jack, Sam lead teams scored 201 goals in consecutive seasons. (2.45 g/gp)

This current team lead by Jack and Sam with VO and Skinner without a center are on pace for 233 goals this season (2.84 g/gp).  This isn’t good enough, but it’s interesting how the the legend of ROR has grown.

 

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I have to say I just don't understand all the arguments in defense of what we have and the status quo. Be that how great Reinhart is or whatever. If these players are not the problem, if all the fancy stats say it's all good, then wtf do we keep losing no matter who coaches us or what system we use or what bodies rotate in? It simply makes no sense to defend what has been here through this thing and to overvalue what we have. 

The only counter argument I really see aside from a few Krueger sucks as a coach comments is JBot has to do something and trade something and you never seem to consider the possibility that nobody wants any of our guys so nobody wants to trade him anything good. 

Otherwise, I see defense of this bad team, but I see no counter arguments as to why we keep sucking. 

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On 2/10/2020 at 8:24 AM, LGR4GM said:

I am looking at 2018-2020. Since ROR was not on the team in 2018 this takes care of itself. I am not excluding Skinner because at some point we have to let Reinhart have someone to play with. 

O'Reilly wasn't on the team in 2018?

Then wtf was he between 1/1/18 & 7/1/18?

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Did we know that Sam is top 30 in ES goals this year? One goal behind Elias Petterson and Steven Stamkos and 2 behind Marchand?

 

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14 minutes ago, Taro T said:

O'Reilly wasn't on the team in 2018?

Then wtf was he between 1/1/18 & 7/1/18?

Somewhere between sadland and lonelyville.  

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5 hours ago, dudacek said:

Did we know that Sam is top 30 in ES goals this year? One goal behind Elias Petterson and Steven Stamkos and 2 behind Marchand?

 

wow top 30 for es goals better give him 8 mil

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1 hour ago, triumph_communes said:

The fancy stats for Scandella were the very bottom of the league... up until they were at the tippy top of the league

Scandella was awful last season by the eye test and fancy stats and any other measure.  Scandella this season was good by both the eye test and fancy stats.  Funny how that works.

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On 2/9/2020 at 11:46 PM, PerreaultForever said:

Eichel drives the line, Reinhart does not. Sam gives the puck to Jack, Jack does most of the work, carries the puck the most.

But it's obvious that Jack trusts Sam and will look for him when it comes time to pass.  They read off each other well.

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12 hours ago, dudacek said:

Did we know that Sam is top 30 in ES goals this year? One goal behind Elias Petterson and Steven Stamkos and 2 behind Marchand?

STILL NOT GOOD ENOUGH.

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14 hours ago, Taro T said:

O'Reilly wasn't on the team in 2018?

Then wtf was he between 1/1/18 & 7/1/18?

The 2018-2019 seasons. So October 2018-February of 2020. So No ROR was not on the team for the 2018 NHL season which started in October because he was traded in July. Did I spell it out sufficiently? Or did the Germans Bomb Pearl Harbor again? 

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54 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

The 2018-2019 seasons. So October 2018-February of 2020. So No ROR was not on the team for the 2018 NHL season which started in October because he was traded in July. Did I spell it out sufficiently? Or did the Germans Bomb Pearl Harbor again? 

Sorry, should have realized you were referring to 2 seasons worth of data because typically when people refer to a 3 year period (2018-2020) they actually mean 3 seasons.  Considering Reinhart also was the primary RW for Eichel in the '18-'19 season AFTER Pominville was finally unglued from Eichel's hip, expected that you would be looking for a greater sample size than simply ~1/3 of a season's worth of data to analyze how Sam performed away from Jack.  My bad.

On 2/9/2020 at 8:46 AM, LGR4GM said:

I'll try on Monday to go back and put this together. It generally shows that Reinhart without eichel at 5v5 is about 5% better. I'll pull from 2018-2020 since this year he has had very limited time away from Jack.

 

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10 hours ago, Doohickie said:

But it's obvious that Jack trusts Sam and will look for him when it comes time to pass.  They read off each other well.

Well they have played together for some time so sure, but I'm not really sure this is true or there is any special "trust."  Jack and Skinner had a thing going last year and they only played together one season. Jack is simply a superstar and he can play well with anybody.

Jack is the only player on this team that I'm sure could play with anybody on any team and still be a star. I think Dahlin will also be that good one day. I really don't think anybody else on this roster fits that bill. There are some with skill sets, but the rest all need players they gel with for their success and styles that suit them. 

Jack is unique and it's why the tank was a reasonable plan. The failure was the rebuild plan. Too many young players and picks traded away and squandered. The Comphers, Armea's, all of that sort could have filled out this team well, and some better drafting and we'd be a different team entirely. 

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1 hour ago, PerreaultForever said:

To the subject, Brad Marchand would never stop outside the offensive blueline and watch the other team go up the ice unchecked like Sam just did against Columbus.. 

One this simply isn’t true and two you clearly missed the point of this subject. 

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1 minute ago, #freejame said:

One this simply isn’t true and two you clearly missed the point of this subject. 

32.5 seconds left in the first period vs. Columbus. Watch it again and then tell me it's blatantly untrue. 

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