Is there a Rasmus Dahlin Blockbuster trade to be had?

[dudacek]

33 minutes ago, Randall Flagg said:

Do you view this current time frame as inevitable/acceptable? Should they have more of these good players and potential good players than they do? Because in my view both now and at the time, we didn't even need a "reset" of the entire roster (that team was put together coming out of a tank just two years before) much less one that simply has to produce three years at the level of, or worse than, either of that team's seasons. It'd be one thing if we were seeing rapid development with a lot of young players a la 2004, or expecting a 2C, depth additions plus starting goalie all at once this offseason (which we literally just got done spending all of LAST offseason waiting for).

 I look at what we have now compared to what we had then, and what we need to be no-BS good, and the sum of our moves since 2017, and while doing so, am shocked at the rare poster who sees us as well on our way down a path of building something meaningful. We still need enough moves of significance, for acquisition or development of good forwards, that it feels like we've barely moved a net inch down this road in three years. Unless I'm supposed to expect all of Cozens, Mitts, and ~2 of the other prospect forwards to become good NHLers in their roles like this spring/fall, or a wave of Skinner-quality trades.

What's disturbing is that I get the idea that Jason truly believes at the time of making the additions that guys like Sheary and Vesey are fairly important pieces, key to establishing a playoff caliber game with a playoff caliber roster. 

Hes talking the development talk but I don't see any important pieces in areas we are lacking going through any meaningful changes over the last year and a half and so it's hard to continue the "should get there soon, we are close" talk that has been the go-to line of glass half full temperament posters for literally five straight seasons now 

Inevitable, certainly not. Acceptable? For me, it was always about how they finish this year. Needed or not, Botterill went for the full rebuild and that takes time.

That said, by the end of year three, there should be signs we are on the right path.

I guess I'm one of the half-full guys, because I've posted elsewhere that I do think we're two players away from being a contender. But I'm not confident Jason can acquire or develop those players.

Right now, as clear pluses under his watch, I like the leadership of the coach and the development of the star centre. That's about it.

[Curt]

1 hour ago, Randall Flagg said:

What's disturbing is that I get the idea that Jason truly believes at the time of making the additions that guys like Sheary and Vesey are fairly important pieces, key to establishing a playoff caliber game with a playoff caliber roster. 

What gives you this impression?

[Randall Flagg]

48 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Inevitable, certainly not. Acceptable? For me, it was always about how they finish this year. Needed or not, Botterill went for the full rebuild and that takes time.

That said, by the end of year three, there should be signs we are on the right path.

I guess I'm one of the half-full guys, because I've posted elsewhere that I do think we're two players away from being a contender. But I'm not confident Jason can acquire or develop those players.

Right now, as clear pluses under his watch, I like the leadership of the coach and the development of the star centre. That's about it.

Appreciate the answer. I don't view you as one of the half-full guys, and I don't think they're wrong to be glass half-full. But their posts turn into more and more white noise the longer this goes on and it's hard to keep getting back on board with seeing the prospect lists, and projecting those rosters in 2 years with those guys etc., with the safe feeling of confidence that it'll play  out that way 

I used to try and catch Mitts' college games. I skim over Cozens' stats without even reading them now, even though I like him better as a prospect. The things fans rely on are getting harder and harder to grasp as a lifeline of hope or patience

Edited January 30, 2020 by Randall Flagg

[dudacek]

12 minutes ago, Randall Flagg said:

The things fans rely on are getting harder and harder to grasp as a lifeline of hope or patience

Yep. That's why I work as hard as I can to make sure I judge Jason in the context of his plan as I perceive it, not the past decade of franchise failures.

I'll try to expand on that later.

Edited January 30, 2020 by dudacek

[Randall Flagg]

39 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Yep. That's why I work as hard as I can to make sure I judge Jason in the context of his plan as I perceive it, not the past decade of franchise failures.

I'll try to expand on that later.

It's the stagnation of every piece of his plan that's unique to him, that has led us to this point in the first place.

[Taro T]

59 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Yep. That's why I work as hard as I can to make sure I judge Jason in the context of his plan as I perceive it, not the past decade of franchise failures.

I'll try to expand on that later.

And an enormously frustrating part in all of this is, and this thought is a work in progress and is not fully fleshed out so it is likely off a bit, it seems with the benefit of hindsight that Botterill didn't just press reset on this team once, he did it twice.  (And the Housley canning on a certain level could be a 3rd reset, but one could argue it is the completion of that 2nd reset.)

He definitely reset when he arrived from heavy to skilled.  But as that season went along, there were reports in the media that Botterill expected that lucking into Dahlin would allow for a more complete/ thorough / accelerated teardown/ rebuild.  And that didn't make sense at the time because it had been a pretty thorough teardown before he showed up and everybody knew Kane would be moved almost regardless of how the team did.  And there were rumors O'Reilly was on the block but, at least IMHO, they weren't credible.  And it looked like the team was building around Eichel.  An example having been aggressively bringing in Scandella who was older than Eichel.

But then, when they got Dahlin, they did significantly alter the timeline of the rebuild by (literally) dumping ROR.  They did a 2nd reset only 1 year after the prior reset.

Since/at that time they've started making moves such as bringing in Skinner, Montour, Thompson, Johansson, and Jokiharju that should be good 2-4 years from now (a couple of which that were expected to also be good today) right when Dahlin starts entering his prime.

They've also traded for low risk guys that are young with possible (though unlikely) upside in Sheary, Miller, Vesey, and Lazar who can at least be upgrades over Rodrigues, Elie, Wilson, Pominville, etc. while waiting for all but Okposo's albatross contract to come off the books.

My perception is that they really were using year 1 as an evaluation year (regrettably, as they should've been trying harder to get to the mold he envisioned from day 1 IMHO) and that the combination of that evaluation and a lucky draw at the lottery table made them consider last year year 1 though all of us view it charitably as year 1 and painfully as year 8.  Which, again IMHO, is why when November went awesome and Berglund quit, that Botts stood pat rather than try to make things happen THEN.  (If the target is 3 years out, you aren't going to weaken what you have 3 years out to make things better today (well, yesterday now).)

So, this is now year 2, and the moves are either for the early part of Dahlin's prime (like those of paragraph 2), or designed to make things better today but at almost no cost (like those of paragraph 3).  And the Frolik move would be in that latter category - hoping it helps today, and if it plans out (it hasn't yet) he could be brought back, but likely it's just rearranging the deck chairs until bringing cap room this off-season.

Haven't really been screaming for Botterill's head for 2 main reasons: am 90%+ certain that he's sold ownership on next season being the jump season, frustrating as that is; and

really could see the plan going either way at this point and if the Pegulas do can him, unless the next GM is a believer in a fast, skilled, take away space sort of team then we are back at square 1 and really have no faith that a new GM doesn't change direction again.

Fully expect we will know for certain if it'll work or not by the US Thanksgiving, and if it isn't then can his arse.

Sorry for the rambling; as mentioned above this isn't fully fleshed out as of yet.

 

[Pimlach]

On ‎1‎/‎29‎/‎2020 at 10:34 AM, inkman said:

Thinking about how to fix the Sabres, the only thing I can come up with that isn't shuffling deck chairs on the Titanic is a Blockbuster invloving Dahlin.  

I know this sounds blasphemous to most but did fans feel that way prior to Turgeon for LaFontaine?  Is there a superstar forward in his prime we could pry away from a team looking to rebuild around a player like Dahlin.  

I can't think of any but I'm sure my friends here at Sabrespace can come up with something. 

Or completely blast me for even making the suggestion.  Blast away...?

Turgeon is no Dahlin. 

Adding one "superstar" forward will not fix this either.  We need a several forwards to fill top 6.  At least 2, maybe 3 and that includes a 2C. 

I think trading Dahlin is a big mistake. 

[Crusader1969]

6 hours ago, inkman said:

I would just be happy if it looked like he could play defense.  

 I really want to go back and see who dogged Eichel in his second, third and maybe even fourth year in the league.  

Now who would you trade him for straight up? McDavid and Mackinnon? anyone else?

 

[inkman]

35 minutes ago, Pimlach said:

Turgeon is no Dahlin. 

Adding one "superstar" forward will not fix this either.  We need a several forwards to fill top 6.  At least 2, maybe 3 and that includes a 2C. 

Right.  See Eric Lindros trade.  

[inkman]

15 minutes ago, Crusader1969 said:

 I really want to go back and see who dogged Eichel in his second, third and maybe even fourth year in the league.  

Now who would you trade him for straight up? McDavid and Mackinnon? anyone else?

 

Cool.  Tell everyone they are getting the next Lidstrum so we can get a slew of players a picks. I want Forsberg and Duchene type players, and a number one goalie and two top pairing D in return.  That's how you fix this team.  

Waiting on this generational talent to come to fruition is gonna kill this organ-eye-zation.  

[Randall Flagg]

I have seen the future:

To Tampa: Dahlin, Mittelstadt, Tage Thompson, Ryan Johnson, 2020 1st, 2021 1st

To Buffalo: Point, Cernak, Cirelli, Palat, Ryan McDonagh

Skinner - Eichel - Palat
Olofsson - Point - Reinhart
Johansson - Cirelli - Cozens
Girgensons - Larsson - Okposo
extra: Lazar

McDonagh - Cernak (shutdown pair)
Montour - Ristolainen
Miller - Jokiharju

We break the NHL offseason 

[LabattBlue]

I can live with the mistakes as long as they are accompanied by the "holy ***** did you just see what Dahlin did" moments...even as a soon to be 20 year old.  Instead the latter don't seem to be coming very often.

 

I'll go out on a limb and say it's 50/50 he even becomes an NHL all-star at some point going forward.  I'm not saying to trade him, but I don't see anything that suggests the Sabres will have to hand him a big contract come this summer or next.  Even as early as last year, there were estimates of Dahlin getting an 8-10 mil contract.  That is laughable.  His play isn't worth half that...and the fact that Dahlin doesn't kill penalties AT ALL while even fellow youngster Joker does, says a lot about RK's feelings about Dahlin's play in his own end.

 

With the PK sucking as bad as they have this year, don't you think RK would have thrown Dahlin out there just to see if he could make a difference?

[Curt]

1 hour ago, Taro T said:

And an enormously frustrating part in all of this is, and this thought is a work in progress and is not fully fleshed out so it is likely off a bit, it seems with the benefit of hindsight that Botterill didn't just press reset on this team once, he did it twice.  (And the Housley canning on a certain level could be a 3rd reset, but one could argue it is the completion of that 2nd reset.)

I don’t see the multiple resets.  What was the 1st reset?  There were changes, of course, and there was a shift to a skill over heavy type of team, but it was all fringe guys who where changed out.  All he did was make a couple small trades and sign a couple low end FAs to fill out the roster.  Scandella/Pommer for Foligno/Ennis was the big move.  That’s not a reset.  He didn’t move any big pieces.

I agree that they took year 1 to evaluate.  Then the reset came.  Moving out the bigger pieces who they didn’t see as good fits.  Kane, ROR, Lehner.  And bringing in pieces that they though were.  Skinner, Hutton, Sheary, Thompson, Berglund.  That was the “reset”.

I wouldn’t call firing Housley a reset either.  It was just firing a coach who wasn’t working.  The roster wasn’t changed much.

[Randall Flagg]

To Philly: Rasmus Dahlin, Dylan Cozens, 2020 1st, UPL 
To Buffalo: Ivan Provorov, Sean Couturier, Oskar Lindblom, Travis Konecny, Carter Hart

Skinner - Eichel - Konecny
Olofsson - Couturier - Reinhart
Lindblom - Mittelstadt - Johansson
Girgensons - Larsson - Okposo
extra: Lazar

Provorov - Ristolainen
McCabe - Jokiharju
Montour - Miller

Carter Hart
Linus Ullmark

Edited January 30, 2020 by Randall Flagg

[Randall Flagg]

To San Jose: Rasmus Dahlin, 2020 1st

To Buffalo: Tomas Hertl, Timo Meier, Logan Couture, Kevin Labanc 

Skinner - Eichel - Reinhart
Olofsson - Hertl - Timo Meier
Johansson - Couture - Cozens
Girgensons - Larsson - Labanc
extra: Lazar, Okposo

Montour - Risto 
McCabe - Jokiharju
someone - Miller 

 

Edited January 30, 2020 by Randall Flagg

[Thorny]

On 1/29/2020 at 10:57 AM, PASabreFan said:

The better analogy to the Turgeon trade would be, "Would you trade Eichel?" Turgeon was in his fifth year when he was traded, and the Sabres were roughly the same number of years into a playoff drought (innocently defined in those days as a stretch of years without winning a playoff series) as they are now. For the young'uns, that drought was probably even more infuriating than this one. Given Eichel's ceiling and approaching prime and certain intangibles Turgeon didn't have, of course you don't trade him.

Dahlin is interesting. The Sabres lack a critical mass of really good players. Do you trade a good player who is likely to be really good and maybe even great to get a haul of really good players in return? Sabres would likely win the trade in the short term and very possibly look historically stupid in the long run. It's not a crazy idea.

Doubt it. 

The Sabres made the playoffs the previous 4 years straight, 7 of the last 9, and won a playoff series that 9th year previously. 

The current Sabres haven't made the playoffs in 9 years, or a won a playoff series in 13. 

[Thorny]

On 1/29/2020 at 11:48 AM, Randall Flagg said:

I don't have the attachment to Dahlin, as a fan, that I do to Eichel. As such, I'm more open to this idea with him than with Jack (especially considering I like our defensemen without Rasmus way more than I like our centers without Jack). 

But I really doubt that a team would put together something convincing enough for me to be okay with the trade.

As one who loves Seth Jones so much, I would think you'd be ardently against moving a young D with so much potential. I bet Nashville regrets it biggly. 

Edited January 30, 2020 by Thorny

[Thorny]

On 1/29/2020 at 12:52 PM, darksabre said:

At first blush the entire premise of this thread made me recoil. But then I took some time to think about my beliefs about how you build a team, use your cap, etc.

I don't want to trade Dahlin. But, there is going to be a point where I might not object, and it's going to be when he signs his first major contract. 

I generally believe a team shouldn't spend much over a quarter of its cap on defense. Teams that do don't tend to win Cups. 

If Dahlin is going to get paid 10mil/yr at some point in the next couple years, I'm not sure I have the stomach for that. If he's going to get 8 I'd feel better. 

It's really going to come down to what is best for this team. Right now Dahlin doesn't cost much of anything so there's no reason to trade him. You can spend on forwards for now and hope you sign Dahlin for the right price. 

If the price is too high though, I move on. I don't think a franchise d man is as valuable as having good forwards. Look at San Jose right now... 

One, Dahlin's not getting that in the next couple years, so...

And two, if we have to trade fricking Dahlin cause Botts gave too much money to other Dmen, lol, enough. 

I honestly can't believe you uttered the phrase, "if the price is too high, I move on" for Dahlin. He's top top priority on this team after Eichel, full stop. You move other players before him, regardless of cost. I can't scoff at the idea of trading him, entirely, cause it's ALWAYS about the return. But he's not a, well, I don't want to pay him so trade him type player. 

Edited January 30, 2020 by Thorny

[sweetlou]

I'll play along..

NJ Devils-  Dahlin, Mitts and Okposo  for Hughes, Wood, and Palmieri and 2020 Arizona 1st?

Philadelphia- Dahlin, Thompson and Okposo for Konecny, Couturier, and Ghostisbehere?

Vegas- Dahlin and Thompson for Tuch, Glass,  Hague and 2021 1st rd pick.

 

 

 

Edited January 30, 2020 by sweetlou

[Randall Flagg]

10 minutes ago, Thorny said:

As one who loves Seth Jones so much, I would think you'd be ardently against moving a young D with so much potential. I bet Nashville regrets it biggly. 

I would trade the best player in the league if I felt it helped my team. I believe Dahlin will spend a good deal of his career being considered one of, or the best, defenseman in the world. But I'd still be more likely to be okay with moving him in a deal for the Buffalo Sabres than I would Jack for reasons both sentimental and, IMO, some degree of logical

[Thorny]

21 hours ago, darksabre said:

This is what is most frustrating. The team is close enough that making maybe ONE move some time between the summer and today might have made a huge difference. Add ONE player who can play on the second line and this team is better. You might lose a trade to do it, but the ROI for the team would have outweighed it.

But apparently Botterill decided that flushing this whole season down the toilet was better than paying whatever that price was to make that one move for that one player. 

I posted this exactly all summer and people just got mad lol

[Thorny]

3 minutes ago, Randall Flagg said:

I would trade the best player in the league if I felt it helped my team. I believe Dahlin will spend a good deal of his career being considered one of, or the best, defenseman in the world. But I'd still be more likely to be okay with moving him in a deal for the Buffalo Sabres than I would Jack for reasons both sentimental and, IMO, some degree of logical

I agree. Jack is the most valuable piece we have regardless, and if we were to trade him, things get pushed way back. 

But then again, Botterill seems to be building for Dahlin's prime anyways, not Jack's. That has always been clear. So we probably have the wrong guy mapping out the trajectory. 

[Thorny]

5 hours ago, dudacek said:

Inevitable, certainly not. Acceptable? For me, it was always about how they finish this year. Needed or not, Botterill went for the full rebuild and that takes time.

That said, by the end of year three, there should be signs we are on the right path.

I guess I'm one of the half-full guys, because I've posted elsewhere that I do think we're two players away from being a contender. But I'm not confident Jason can acquire or develop those players.

Right now, as clear pluses under his watch, I like the leadership of the coach and the development of the star centre. That's about it.

You're viewpoint has had intrinsic logical consistency the entire time. Obviously it's not for me to judge, but I applaud it, even when I disagree more than rarely. 

I'm glad you posted the bolded. I said they needed to be in the hunt for playoff spot. That's not going to happen. They need to finish the year strong. If they don't, Botterill should I'd argue objectively be gone, regardless of my personal view. What do you think? What if they play out the stretch and finish around 80 points? What say you?

2 hours ago, inkman said:

Right.  See Eric Lindros trade.  

A unicorn of a deal. It's much more likely Dahlin turns into a great D man than that we trade him in a package that brings back a better player. 

Edited January 31, 2020 by Thorny

[inkman]

19 minutes ago, Thorny said:

You're viewpoint has had intrinsic logical consistency the entire time. Obviously it's not for me to judge, but I applaud it, even when I disagree more than rarely. 

I'm glad you posted the bolded. I said they needed to be in the hunt for playoff spot. That's not going to happen. They need to finish the year strong. If they don't, Botterill should I'd argue objectively be gone, regardless of my personal view. What do you think? What if they play out the stretch and finish around 80 points? What say you?

A unicorn of a deal. It's much more likely Dahlin turns into a great D man than that we trade him in a package that brings back a better player. 

I don't think it's actually going to happen or even feasible but I needed something to get my mind off this terrible season...again.  

[Pimlach]

3 hours ago, inkman said:

Right.  See Eric Lindros trade.  

Right.  The Nordiques/Avalanche already had Sakic, Nolan and Sundin.  Then they draft  Forsberg and Ricci.  Then they trade for Roy.  

A lot has to happen for Buffalo to duplicate that.  And you have to be able to sign all those player in the salary cap free agency era.  

After seeing Boterill handle the O’Reilly trade I don’t want him trading Dahlin.