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Forward depth is bad with no help coming internally


LGR4GM

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LOL,

It's not unbridled optimism, it's just the other side of the coin from people like yourselves that are so deep seeded in the failures of the past.  It's also an opinion based on prospect development stats and how similar players have developed in the past.

We have 4 good D.  We have 4 top 6 forwards.  @freester you say Mitts and Thompson will never be NHL players.  This is simply an ignorant statement.  It isn't based on anything other then seeing two guys rushed to the NHL and then get sent down.  These guys were 1st rd picks for a reason and are 21 and 22 years old respectively.  This thread is about projecting out 3 years when these guys are 24 and 25.  I'm sorry but I look at guys like Pommers, JP Dumont, and Danny Briere who didn't have straight line development curves and understand that many talented players mature at different rates.  Remember that VO is a 24 year old rookie. I suggest  finding Scott Cullen's research on draft picks and their eventual position in the NHL before blindly saying they'll never be NHLers.  The math is on my side, especially with Mitts.  

It's also wrong to say that Asplund, who is holding his own as an NHL rookie, will never be anything other then a 4th line player.  This opinion is based on what exactly, 28 NHL games?  Can you say small sample size.  While I might agree that his offensive upside may be limited to 40 points in the NHL, I've watched this kid take half a season to adjust to the speed and rink size in NA last season with almost no production and them blossom in the second half of last year, carry that good play into this season and earn an extended callup to the NHL.  Remember TM traded up to get this kid because he had a 1st rd grade on his talent.  One thing we know already is that he is a solid defensive forward which is something our organization needs.  Is it really so optimistic to say that a 22 year old kid who is doing OK in his first NHL season will grow over the next 3 years into a bigger role on the team?  Give me a break.

I think even the great pessimists here can agree that Cozens is the real deal and will be a 2nd line forward within 3 years.

So what about Pekar?  Yes he is a 4th rd pick and we have seen guys like Bailey and Baptiste with better numbers in the CHL never develop into anything.  All that is true.  We also have seen players with worse numbers in the CHL become effective NHLers. Guys like Gaustad, Kaleta, Marcus Foligno, and Chris Thorburn.  What do these guys all have in common?  Is that they played physical hockey.  Pekar plays that game as well, but he is significantly faster and honestly more talented then the guys mentioned.  While he has along way to go, I don't think it is really to hard to imagine 2-3 years from now when he is 22-23 that he becomes an NHL regular and carves out a bottom six forward slot with the Sabres.

Bottomline:  With 4 top 6 forwards already here, is it really to far fetched to ask 5 forwards already in our system including 2 top 10 picks (ages 19 & 21), another 1st rd pick (age 22), a high 2nd rd pick currently in the NHL (age 22) and a 4th rd pick (age 19) to take 5 of the remaining 8 forward slots within the next 3 years?  I don't think so.

OK, so what about our other forward prospects? Guys like Oglevie (24), Davidsson (21), Routsalainen (22), Weissbach (21), Rousek, Huglen etc....  I agree these guys are a bunch of who knows, but I think Weissbach (3g 15a for 18 pts in 22 NCAA games) and Routsalainen (12g -17a for 29pts in 28 SM-liiga games) could surprise us and eventually become NHL players.  Routsalainen really intrigues me because he is already in his 5th season in the top Finnish league and has improved each season.  He seems to be on a nearly identical development path as VO, who came to NA after 5 SweHL seasons.  Ultimately if any of the other forwards listed become NHLers that is a bonus.  

However even if these guys all wash out, we are only now asking Jbot to find 3 forwards to add depth to the roster.  That isn't a tall task.  Guys like Lazar, Girgensons and Larsson are all young enough and cheap enough and effective enough to round out a roster.  Need more scoring? Scoring wingers can be found as long as we have the top 3 centers figured out. 

My educated guess is Jack and Dylan will be a excellent 1-2 punch within 3 years.  As I've said a million times, Jbot needs to find someone to bridge the gap until Cozens is fully ready.  I've asked Jbot in the last few years to go get a JT Miller or Adam Henrique (for example) as they are guys who can play the 2C for a few years and then easily transition to the 3C in the final years of their contracts.  I'm hoping Ana will trade Henrique this deadline.  

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I did not say that Mitts and Tage will never be NHL players I said they “may never” be NHL players Adam Henrique is a third line center who is overpaid.  I would not trade assets for him.   I think you’re going to be very disappointed at the deadline we are going to trade the pending UFA  garbage on the roster for  late round draft picks. I also think Montour gets traded in offseason for a 2 Center. We may have to add to make that deal happen. 

Edited by freester
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27 minutes ago, freester said:

I did not say that Mitts and Tage will never be NHL players I said they “may never” be NHL players Adam Henrique is a third line center who is overpaid.  I would not trade assets for him.   I think you’re going to be very disappointed at the deadline we are going to trade the pending UFA  garbage on the roster for  late round draft picks. I also think Montour gets traded in offseason for a 2 Center. We may have to add to make that deal happen. 

You said Montour is a lousy D.  If that is true how is he going to get us a top 6 center?

By the way, I disagree that Montour is a lousy D.  I do agree that he is available in the right deal.

 

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4 hours ago, Curt said:

Agreed.

Eichel, Reinhart, Skinner, Olofsson, Asplund, (Mittelstadt or acquired player), (Thompson or acquired player)

Dahlin, Jokiharju, (Risto or Montour, whoever isn’t traded)

This is absolutely what I Hope happens. But the fearful dark side version of me is concerned that all other GMs learned from Vegas and we’re going to get a middling 2C for Risto + Mitts + pick. And really, we need a 2C on a 2-year deal. 

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23 minutes ago, DarthEbriate said:

This is absolutely what I Hope happens. But the fearful dark side version of me is concerned that all other GMs learned from Vegas and we’re going to get a middling 2C for Risto + Mitts + pick. And really, we need a 2C on a 2-year deal. 

You think GMs won’t want to make a trade because of the upcoming expansion draft?  I’m not really seeing your reasoning on that.

I wouldn’t be opposed to Risto, Mittelstadt, and a pick(not a 1st) for a 2C.  I guess it depends what you mean by middling though.

A stop gap 2C on a 2 year deal would be good, but I would take a bigger, more expensive trade for a good,  young, long term 2C too.  Those players are hard to get, but there is nothing wrong with Buffalo making that trade if it’s possible.  I’m not going to bank on Cozens or Mitts being a high quality 2C before it actually happens.

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I think our pipeline is very weak, particularly at forward, which is kind of shocking given the amount of time that has been devoted to building this team after some horrible years.

The reality is that we have almost no strong forward prospects in our system or as recent draft picks, other than Cozens.  Something is not right with our scouting and player assessments.  Our drafts are not producing prospects in the lower rounds and the players that were part of our return package in trades (Thompson, Danny O'Regan and CJ Smith) have not been good enough to play for a below average Sabres team.

I am not optimistic that things will improve significantly in the near term.

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23 hours ago, Curt said:

You think GMs won’t want to make a trade because of the upcoming expansion draft?  I’m not really seeing your reasoning on that.

My reasoning was never my strong suit. I think the draft will absolutely influence upcoming trades because GMs need to set themselves up to have their main chips protected without also having to give Seattle additional assets. That could take some ideal trade partners off the table.

For Vegas, Buffalo gave up a 6th. Sure, not a big deal. But other teams gave up 1st round picks and high-end prospects last time around. If you're a GM making a trade (for Risto, for example) you'd better love him enough to protect him/extend him, or you will angle to get even more from Buffalo in the package so that you have assets to barter with Seattle or in the event Risto is a rental for you.

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6 minutes ago, freester said:

Who is that?

I was wondering the same thing as first, but he is referring to Sabres D man Ryan Johnson who is learning the ropes in his first collegiate season.

Normally when I see UofM I think Michigan and 23 there isn't a prospect.

Edited by GASabresIUFAN
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On 1/25/2020 at 3:22 PM, GASabresIUFAN said:

It's also wrong to say that Asplund, who is holding his own as an NHL rookie, will never be anything other then a 4th line player. 

It depends on what your definition of a 4th line player is.  A decade ago on most teams, a 4th line player was a PK specialist that had to have a spot on a 'regular' line for a few minutes of non PK time...or it was an Enforcer...or it was just a  bad player on a bad team that had to fill a roster spot.

Today, that isn't the case.  If Asplund can (eventually) get you 10 goals and 30-35 points or more...plays very good D-zone hockey and is one of your top PK specialists, I'd be just fine with him having a long career with the Sabres.

Larsson is a 7-8 goal, 10-15 assist guy over a typical full season...and I'm ALMOST happy with him as my 4th line center at a low cost/cap hit.  I'd like to just get a few more goals and 5-10 more assists out of that position though.

Edited by mjd1001
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10 minutes ago, mjd1001 said:

It depends on what your definition of a 4th line player is.  A decade ago on most teams, a 4th line player was a PK specialist that had to have a spot on a 'regular' line for a few minutes of non PK time...or it was an Enforcer...or it was just a  bad player on a bad team that had to fill a roster spot.

Today, that isn't the case.  If Asplund can (eventually) get you 10 goals and 30-35 points or more...plays very good D-zone hockey and is one of your top PK specialists, I'd be just fine with him having a long career with the Sabres.

Larsson is a 7-8 goal, 10-15 assist guy over a typical full season...and I'm ALMOST happy with him as my 4th line center at a low cost/cap hit.  I'd like to just get a few more goals and 5-10 more assists out of that position though.

How many teams in the league have a 4th line made up of guys who are producing 10 goals and 30 points?

Almost no players produce that while getting 4th line minutes.

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