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Forward depth is bad with no help coming internally


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11 minutes ago, tom webster said:

Again, this is just a ridiculous premise. First, they are going to sign an RFA or two. Second, they will acquire a second line center and then with Cozens as the right winger you will have two top lines basically locked up for five years. Third, you will have more then enough forwards to fill the bottom six, quite adequately with guys like Johansson, Asplund and the such. Fourth and finally, with a relatively young, set defensive core you have at least three years to fill the forward ranks and all you have to do is hit on one every year and you won’t need to worry about the top six for ten years.

 

And that doesn’t even take into account Casey whom everyone tells me is still so massively talented.

1) Nobody in the NHL signs RFAs from other teams, and we don't have the ones we need ourselves

2) Like we did this summer? Like Casey was going to? 

These are incredibly bold assumptions about Botterill's ability when he's shown nothing to indicate they would happen, or are even likely. 

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24 minutes ago, WildCard said:

1) Nobody in the NHL signs RFAs from other teams, and we don't have the ones we need ourselves

2) Like we did this summer? Like Casey was going to? 

These are incredibly bold assumptions about Botterill's ability when he's shown nothing to indicate they would happen, or are even likely. 

1) meant UFA’s

2) He will or he will be gone and Cozen’s is light years ahead of Casey. 
 

My point is that when you have a young, talented locked up top 4-6, you don’t need this abundance of forward depth. You need 1, maybe 2 guys per year. I’ve said it before, this team is a 2C and a 1G away from making most of the narrative mute.

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13 minutes ago, tom webster said:

1) meant UFA’s

2) He will or he will be gone and Cozen’s is light years ahead of Casey. 
 

My point is that when you have a young, talented locked up top 4-6, you don’t need this abundance of forward depth. You need 1, maybe 2 guys per year. I’ve said it before, this team is a 2C and a 1G away from making most of the narrative mute.

Jack Eichel or Sam Reinhart get hurt, who fills in for them? Answer, no one. 

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3 hours ago, tom webster said:

Again, this is just a ridiculous premise. First, they are going to sign an RFA or two. Second, they will acquire a second line center and then with Cozens as the right winger you will have two top lines basically locked up for five years. Third, you will have more then enough forwards to fill the bottom six, quite adequately with guys like Johansson, Asplund and the such. Fourth and finally, with a relatively young, set defensive core you have at least three years to fill the forward ranks and all you have to do is hit on one every year and you won’t need to worry about the top six for ten years.

 

And that doesn’t even take into account Casey whom everyone tells me is still so massively talented.

I don't understand why people think JBot is without a plan. The plan seems obvious to me.

  • Build a team around the pillars of Eichel and Dahlin.
  • Acquire players who can play an up-tempo style based around a puck-moving defence and forwards that push the play.
  • Hire a positive coach who believes in the above and creates a positive, communicative environment designed to appeal to today's millennial athlete
  • Assemble a core of young players who fit the style of play and personality you want for your team and develop them so they can be strong contributors during the 5-10 year window where Eichel and Dahlin will be among the league's elite.
  • Shop the bargain bin for guys who can at least be placeholders (or maybe even surprises) while you flush the roster of expensive veteran contracts and create the cap flexibility you need to pay for and backfill around your core.

The issue isn't really the plan, it's the execution.

  • Eichel has emerged at 23 as a pillar. Dahlin has not, at least not yet
  • We are a faster team with a much more modern defence, and are better for it, just not improved enough
  • Phil wasn't that guy, I think Ralph might be. The team does not look lost or unmotivated, just lacking talent up front and between the pipes
  • Reinhart (and I will add Risto) was here when he got here. Olofsson has emerged. Ullmark might be emerging. We've yet to see exactly what we have in Mittelstadt, Thompson, Cozens, Asplund, Jokiharju, Luukkonen, Davidsson, Samuelsson, Johnson and the deeper picks. The latter group is all young enough for hope, but only time will tell. Some of them have to become core players and relatively soon.
  • Montour and Skinner were backfill aggressive moves that seem justified to me, although Montour wasn't cheap to acquire and Skinner eats a huge portion of the cap. Overall, the others have ranged from OK to disappointing. The big test for the cap space happens this summer.

@Taro T has been saying for a while that this team isn't that far off and I tend to agree. I think Botterill knows how to manage. I remain unconvinced he knows talent. Overall, his acquisitions and his young core have not impressed. I agree with @Thorny's long-voiced opinion that this was never Botterill's year. The plan he pitched to Terry was "be patient and I will deliver a team in year 4 or 5 that will be good for long time."

The major reason I'd be hesitant to fire Botterill is that there is a good chance the new guy hits the reset button and we are looking at three more years like the last three as he embarks on another rebuild.

The main reason I'd be interested in firing him is that we are possibly a goalie and a very good forward away from being what Jason promised: a team that could be good for a  long time. And I just don't know that Jason is the right guy to go out and get them.

Edited by dudacek
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Hmm, on one hand, yes, Buffalo doesn’t have enough good forwards.  The concept has been well covered.

On the other hand.  If you project out a few years, assume that no UFA’s are retained, and that no new UFA’s are signed, then of course the team is going to look weak.  

In reality, some UFA’s will be resigned/signed to fill holes and another highly drafted forward is going to be added this summer.

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14 minutes ago, Curt said:

Hmm, on one hand, yes, Buffalo doesn’t have enough good forwards.  The concept has been well covered.

On the other hand.  If you project out a few years, assume that no UFA’s are retained, and that no new UFA’s are signed, then of course the team is going to look weak.  

In reality, some UFA’s will be resigned/signed to fill holes and another highly drafted forward is going to be added this summer.

Correct.  

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33 minutes ago, Curt said:

Hmm, on one hand, yes, Buffalo doesn’t have enough good forwards.  The concept has been well covered.

On the other hand.  If you project out a few years, assume that no UFA’s are retained, and that no new UFA’s are signed, then of course the team is going to look weak.  

In reality, some UFA’s will be resigned/signed to fill holes and another highly drafted forward is going to be added this summer.

Again though, we've been saying that for years. Where is the actual evidence that this time is different? UFAs rarely bring the long term piece we need, Cozens and Mitts are at least 2-3 years away from being impact 2Cs

Our only hope is a trade. 

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The one wrench to the short-term plans is that the expansion draft isn't this summer. Seattle's one-year delay to come onboard post-CBA is taking some nice plans (look at all our cap space and short contracts that expire this offseason) and, while not rendering them moot, making them less beautiful. Because the expansion is in 2021, we'll have to protect additional players that wouldn't have needed to be protected this year (Dahlin, Olofsson, Mitts) that would have still been safe this summer. That stinks.

But the other end of the wrench (it's a combination wrench, I guess) is this year's UFA. You don't want to sign any player long-term who you aren't willing to protect. It means a lot of 1- and 2-year deals, which is fine if it's a replaceable person (hey Vesey!). But what if it's a good ascending player who has a nice season for you and you want to build around him? Now we might have to lose someone decent or have to give up a draft asset to keep him.

Ideally, you go into the expansion season like are set up this year: this year we can protect everyone we like because we barely have any contracts to protect. We were set up for this season with that, but to set ourselves up for that again next season might look like wheel-spinning.

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4 minutes ago, WildCard said:

Again though, we've been saying that for years. Where is the actual evidence that this time is different? UFAs rarely bring the long term piece we need, Cozens and Mitts are at least 2-3 years away from being impact 2Cs

Our only hope is a trade. 

Agree, they should try to trade for a 2C.  I’m not questioning that.  We have all agreed with that for some time.  I’m just questioning the usefulness of this roster projection exercise in which all player evaporate when they reach UFA eligibility.

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3 hours ago, tom webster said:

And how many teams have guys in pipeline ready to replace their top two, early twenty players? The lack of depth in the pipeline is a function of the age of their stars.

No, the lack of depth in the pipeline is a function of the complete incompetence of the people running our organization.

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7 hours ago, WildCard said:

Again though, we've been saying that for years. Where is the actual evidence that this time is different? UFAs rarely bring the long term piece we need, Cozens and Mitts are at least 2-3 years away from being impact 2Cs

Our only hope is a trade. 

The ONLY reason this team isn't appearing to be in the hunt is they have not replaced (in any way) what O'Reilly brought.  If they still had him and a better platoon goalie than Hutton, they aren't only in the hunt; they're in the dance.

7 hours ago, DarthEbriate said:

The one wrench to the short-term plans is that the expansion draft isn't this summer. Seattle's one-year delay to come onboard post-CBA is taking some nice plans (look at all our cap space and short contracts that expire this offseason) and, while not rendering them moot, making them less beautiful. Because the expansion is in 2021, we'll have to protect additional players that wouldn't have needed to be protected this year (Dahlin, Olofsson, Mitts) that would have still been safe this summer. That stinks.

But the other end of the wrench (it's a combination wrench, I guess) is this year's UFA. You don't want to sign any player long-term who you aren't willing to protect. It means a lot of 1- and 2-year deals, which is fine if it's a replaceable person (hey Vesey!). But what if it's a good ascending player who has a nice season for you and you want to build around him? Now we might have to lose someone decent or have to give up a draft asset to keep him.

Ideally, you go into the expansion season like are set up this year: this year we can protect everyone we like because we barely have any contracts to protect. We were set up for this season with that, but to set ourselves up for that again next season might look like wheel-spinning.

The Sabres almost definitely will lose a D-man in the Seattle Scheisskopts draft, but considering Botterill''s strength is finding D-men, though it IS annoying, it isn't a franchise breaker.

And losing a top 3/4 D-man to add a top 6F doesn't make their now losing the guy that was their 5th D man in another year a deal breaker.  Heck, it might actually work out if somehow Seattle likes Rodrigues better than Pilut.

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Here is our current forward depth not including UFAs (and Erod, Elie) who aren't long term Sabres.  I've kept Larsson and Girgensons on the list because of length of service and solid play in their roles despite being UFAs

OVER 30 Age at season's end)

1) Okposo 31 - NHL 3 years left -Drafted 2006 1-7

OVER 25 and Under 30

1) Johansson 29 - NHL 1 year left - Drafted 2009 1-24

2) Skinner 27 - NHL 7 years left - Drafted 2010 1-7

3) Larsson 27 - NHL UFA - Drafted 2010 2-56

4) Girgensons 26 - NHL UFA - Drafted 2012 1-14

5) Lazar 25 - NHL RFA - Drafted 2013 1-17

UNDER 25

1) Reinhart 24 - NHL RFA - Drafted 2014 1-2

2) Olofsson 24 - NHL RFA - Drafted 2014 7-181

3) Oglevie 24 - AHL RFA - undrafted

4) Eichel 23 - NHL 6 years left - Drafted 2015 1-2

5) Routsalainen 22 - FIN 3 years ELC - undrafted

6) Thompson 22 - NHL/AHL RFA - Drafted 2016 1-26

7) Asplund 22 - NHL/AHL 1 year ELC - Drafted 2016 2-33

8.) Murray 21 - AHL (AHL ELC) - Drafted 2016 4-99

9) Mittelstadt 21 - AHL RFA - Drafted 2017 1-8

10) Davidsson 21 - SWE - Drafted 2017 2-37

11) Weissbach 21 - NCAA - Drafted 2017 7 -192

12) Pekar 20 - CHL 3 years ELC - Drafted 2018 4 -94

13) Rousek 20 - CZE - Drafted 2019 6-160

14) Cozens 19 - CHL 3 years ELC 2019-17

15) Huglen 19 - USHL - Drafted 2019 4-102

My list contains 21 forwards that are currently in the organization that should be in the organization next fall baring a trade or an unforeseen change.  As of right now I think that unless traded at the deadline Girgensons and Larsson have likely earned another contract with the Sabres. 

Looking out 3 years we have plenty of forwards.  Right now we have 15 players and prospects under 25 plus Lazar at 25.  This is a very young organization.

Skinner and Eichel are locked up. Reinhart and Olofsson will be locked up this off-season.

Thompson, Cozens, Routsalainen, Mittelstadt, Asplund and Pekar should be on the roster.  I think Lazar could be as well.  KO will be on this last season.  That 12 forwards without much effort.

I also think between Davidsson, Weissbach, Oglevie, Rousek and Huglen there could easily be another forward or two in the mix.

This is without retaining Girgensons or Larsson beyond another year or two, although both are young enough to still be playing good hockey or acquiring any other good prospects through draft, trade or NCAA/Euro FAs or signing depth NHL UFA forwards.

The biggest issue with this group is ceiling.  How high are Thompson's, Mitts' and Cozen's ceilings?  Are they high enough to be top 6 forwards and can they reach those ceilings?  Cozens certainly has that kind of ceiling and has a 80% likelihood in reaching the level IMHO.  Mitts and Thompson are bigger questions, but both still have plenty of time to figure it out.  Honestly, I thought Thompson had figured it out and was ready to contribute in Buffalo before he got hurt.  I also think Mitts will figure it out, but be may need to start next season in Rochester.  He kind of reminds me of Pommers.  

I envision Pekar and Asplund anchoring our 3rd line with some scoring and tough defense.  

If I'm right and our top 9 in a few years are EIchel, VO, Sam, Skinner, Cozens, Mitts, Asplund, Pekar and Thompson, are we really going to be very concerned about the 4th line grinders? 

 

 

Edited by GASabresIUFAN
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1 hour ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

I envision Pekar and Asplund anchoring our 3rd line with some scoring and tough defense.  

If I'm right and our top 9 in a few years are EIchel, VO, Sam, Skinner, Cozens, Mitts, Asplund, Pekar and Thompson, are we really going to be very concerned about the 4th line grinders? 

Wait a sec. Pekar and Asplund anchoring a 3rd line with tough defense? Didn't you critique me for saying just that in the sign/trade Reinhart thread? Or do I have you mixed up with someone else? If so, where were you, I was alone on an island there.........

Anyway, ya, I really like Asplund and Pekar's chances too. Also very very high on Cozens.    

Definitely not sold on Mitts and pretty much have given up on Thompson though. imo that depth will have to come from elsewhere. Bottom line though is, for a change from Murray's success rate, more of JBot's draft picks have to become what we hope they are going to be for this plan to look like a success. 

I have serious doubts about JBot's plan but I'm giving him until next season to see if he can pull it all together. Remember, when he got here our D was terrible and arguably the worst in the league. Now it's got some depth, arguably too much depth, but we haven't had to deal with any situation like when we had what Redmond, Tennyson, Nelson etc. who cares to remember.Hutton is clearly a disappointment, but the future isn't terrible there with the guys in the system and Ullmark. So now we need some more/better forwards. See if he can do that.

I know everybody hates Vlad, but keep in mind how much that injury (along with Skinner's after) have hurt us. That Skinner-Johanson-Sobodka line wasn't bad at the beginning of the year and might have stayed decent if not for the injuries. E-Rod, Vesey, Sheary, these guys have all disappointed greatly.

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8 hours ago, Taro T said:

The ONLY reason this team isn't appearing to be in the hunt is they have not replaced (in any way) what O'Reilly brought.  If they still had him and a better platoon goalie than Hutton, they aren't only in the hunt; they're in the dance.

The Sabres almost definitely will lose a D-man in the Seattle Scheisskopts draft, but considering Botterill''s strength is finding D-men, though it IS annoying, it isn't a franchise breaker.

And losing a top 3/4 D-man to add a top 6F doesn't make their now losing the guy that was their 5th D man in another year a deal breaker.  Heck, it might actually work out if somehow Seattle likes Rodrigues better than Pilut.

The only reason we aren't a bottom 5 team is an MVP season from Eichel

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GA, I honestly don't understand at all where your optimism comes from.  Those prospects that you seem to lean on for comfort are all B or C rate prospects, the kind that hit in the NHL at a 10-15% clip.  They aren't long shots, but they aren't anything this team should be banking on either.  They are the kind of prospects we always were flush with.

At some point you have to wake up, look at the alarm clock, and realize this is groundhog's day.

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7 hours ago, PerreaultForever said:

 

I know everybody hates Vlad, but keep in mind how much that injury (along with Skinner's after) have hurt us. That Skinner-Johanson-Sobodka line wasn't bad at the beginning of the year and might have stayed decent if not for the injuries. E-Rod, Vesey, Sheary, these guys have all disappointed greatly.

The Skinner Johnson pairing was good but all evidence points to Sobotka being a black hole on that line. 

19 minutes ago, Weave said:

GA, I honestly don't understand at all where your optimism comes from.  Those prospects that you seem to lean on for comfort are all B or C rate prospects, the kind that hit in the NHL at a 10-15% clip.  They aren't long shots, but they aren't anything this team should be banking on either.  They are the kind of prospects we always were flush with.

At some point you have to wake up, look at the alarm clock, and realize this is groundhog's day.

You're correct. You can assume 50% of them won't make it. 

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I'm not too optimistic. It seems like for every Olofsson in the Sabres pipeline, there are 5 Mittelstadts. High picks who just fizzle. There are just not enough good, young players with proven NHL-caliber ability. It's a lot of really bad outcomes with top prospects for a really long time. 

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9 hours ago, Taro T said:

The Sabres almost definitely will lose a D-man in the Seattle Scheisskopts draft, but considering Botterill''s strength is finding D-men, though it IS annoying, it isn't a franchise breaker.

And losing a top 3/4 D-man to add a top 6F doesn't make their now losing the guy that was their 5th D man in another year a deal breaker.  Heck, it might actually work out if somehow Seattle likes Rodrigues better than Pilut.

If the draft was this coming offseason I agree we lose a d-man, but because it's next year (barring moving Risto or Montour in between) we're absorbing a higher risk of losing a piece we value (or adding a draft pick to keep that piece). And it might change whether we protect 7/3 vs 8 skaters.

As an example: If this year, protect 7F 3D (Risto, Montour, Miller/McCabe?) and off we go. They take Miller or McCabe. Fine. Or heck, maybe we throw in a 4th and they take Bogo (the wouldn't go for that for a 4th I don't believe).

But because it's next year, we might consider protecting 8 skaters to keep 4 D. Risto (unless he's moved), Montour (because why wouldn't we re-sign him), Joker, and Dahlin. To get back to 7F/3D to protect, we might be forced to move Risto for less than we want (or just protected prospects/picks) or hamper our willingness to get a 2C that we then have to protect.

Along the lines of forward depth and help isn't coming (staying on thread target) --- if we manage to get a 2C worthy of protecting without moving Risto, then that depth is available for plucking by Seattle. Mitts (still scoring potential), Thompson (still scoring potential), Olofsson. Or at the least, we are getting fleeced for draft assets to take a specific player.

A bunch of teams, ourselves included, got set up for expansion this summer of 2020 when it was announced. And then Seattle delayed. Punks.

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48 minutes ago, DarthEbriate said:

If the draft was this coming offseason I agree we lose a d-man, but because it's next year (barring moving Risto or Montour in between) we're absorbing a higher risk of losing a piece we value (or adding a draft pick to keep that piece). And it might change whether we protect 7/3 vs 8 skaters.

As an example: If this year, protect 7F 3D (Risto, Montour, Miller/McCabe?) and off we go. They take Miller or McCabe. Fine. Or heck, maybe we throw in a 4th and they take Bogo (the wouldn't go for that for a 4th I don't believe).

But because it's next year, we might consider protecting 8 skaters to keep 4 D. Risto (unless he's moved), Montour (because why wouldn't we re-sign him), Joker, and Dahlin. To get back to 7F/3D to protect, we might be forced to move Risto for less than we want (or just protected prospects/picks) or hamper our willingness to get a 2C that we then have to protect.

Along the lines of forward depth and help isn't coming (staying on thread target) --- if we manage to get a 2C worthy of protecting without moving Risto, then that depth is available for plucking by Seattle. Mitts (still scoring potential), Thompson (still scoring potential), Olofsson. Or at the least, we are getting fleeced for draft assets to take a specific player.

A bunch of teams, ourselves included, got set up for expansion this summer of 2020 when it was announced. And then Seattle delayed. Punks.

They aren't going to lose their 5th best forward to protect their 4th best D-man.  They're going to go 7-3 and will likely effectively lose their 5th best D-man because one of their 2nd-4th best D-men will likely be a piece of the package for a 2C.

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23 minutes ago, Taro T said:

They aren't going to lose their 5th best forward to protect their 4th best D-man.  They're going to go 7-3 and will likely effectively lose their 5th best D-man because one of their 2nd-4th best D-men will likely be a piece of the package for a 2C.

Agreed.

Eichel, Reinhart, Skinner, Olofsson, Asplund, (Mittelstadt or acquired player), (Thompson or acquired player)

Dahlin, Jokiharju, (Risto or Montour, whoever isn’t traded)

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11 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Here is our current forward depth not including UFAs (and Erod, Elie) who aren't long term Sabres.  I've kept Larsson and Girgensons on the list because of length of service and solid play in their roles despite being UFAs

OVER 30 Age at season's end)

1) Okposo 31 - NHL 3 years left -Drafted 2006 1-7

OVER 25 and Under 30

1) Johansson 29 - NHL 1 year left - Drafted 2009 1-24

2) Skinner 27 - NHL 7 years left - Drafted 2010 1-7

3) Larsson 27 - NHL UFA - Drafted 2010 2-56

4) Girgensons 26 - NHL UFA - Drafted 2012 1-14

5) Lazar 25 - NHL RFA - Drafted 2013 1-17

UNDER 25

1) Reinhart 24 - NHL RFA - Drafted 2014 1-2

2) Olofsson 24 - NHL RFA - Drafted 2014 7-181

3) Oglevie 24 - AHL RFA - undrafted

4) Eichel 23 - NHL 6 years left - Drafted 2015 1-2

5) Routsalainen 22 - FIN 3 years ELC - undrafted

6) Thompson 22 - NHL/AHL RFA - Drafted 2016 1-26

7) Asplund 22 - NHL/AHL 1 year ELC - Drafted 2016 2-33

8.) Murray 21 - AHL (AHL ELC) - Drafted 2016 4-99

9) Mittelstadt 21 - AHL RFA - Drafted 2017 1-8

10) Davidsson 21 - SWE - Drafted 2017 2-37

11) Weissbach 21 - NCAA - Drafted 2017 7 -192

12) Pekar 20 - CHL 3 years ELC - Drafted 2018 4 -94

13) Rousek 20 - CZE - Drafted 2019 6-160

14) Cozens 19 - CHL 3 years ELC 2019-17

15) Huglen 19 - USHL - Drafted 2019 4-102

My list contains 21 forwards that are currently in the organization that should be in the organization next fall baring a trade or an unforeseen change.  As of right now I think that unless traded at the deadline Girgensons and Larsson have likely earned another contract with the Sabres. 

Looking out 3 years we have plenty of forwards.  Right now we have 15 players and prospects under 25 plus Lazar at 25.  This is a very young organization.

Skinner and Eichel are locked up. Reinhart and Olofsson will be locked up this off-season.

Thompson, Cozens, Routsalainen, Mittelstadt, Asplund and Pekar should be on the roster.  I think Lazar could be as well.  KO will be on this last season.  That 12 forwards without much effort.

I also think between Davidsson, Weissbach, Oglevie, Rousek and Huglen there could easily be another forward or two in the mix.

This is without retaining Girgensons or Larsson beyond another year or two, although both are young enough to still be playing good hockey or acquiring any other good prospects through draft, trade or NCAA/Euro FAs or signing depth NHL UFA forwards.

The biggest issue with this group is ceiling.  How high are Thompson's, Mitts' and Cozen's ceilings?  Are they high enough to be top 6 forwards and can they reach those ceilings?  Cozens certainly has that kind of ceiling and has a 80% likelihood in reaching the level IMHO.  Mitts and Thompson are bigger questions, but both still have plenty of time to figure it out.  Honestly, I thought Thompson had figured it out and was ready to contribute in Buffalo before he got hurt.  I also think Mitts will figure it out, but be may need to start next season in Rochester.  He kind of reminds me of Pommers.  

I envision Pekar and Asplund anchoring our 3rd line with some scoring and tough defense.  

If I'm right and our top 9 in a few years are EIchel, VO, Sam, Skinner, Cozens, Mitts, Asplund, Pekar and Thompson, are we really going to be very concerned about the 4th line grinders? 

 

 

Mitts And Tage may never be an NHL players.  Asplund and Pekar are likely 4th liners. We have 4 top 6 players and only one possible one in the pipeline (Cozens). The goaltending is atrocious and Botteril is about to waste big money on a bad contract for Montour who is mediocre and not worth the 1st round pick we gave up for him. 
Your unbridled optimism borders on delusional. 

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