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Bogosian should be waived.


LGR4GM

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1 hour ago, Broken Ankles said:

 I think it's questionable if Bogosian can fetch anything, right?  So assuming he cannot, why wouldn't the only option be to waive and bury the contract?   As the resident Capologist, is this scenario (waive/clear waivers/bury) not similar to what the Bruins just did with David Backes?   According to what I read on that move, they were able to save ~$1m on their Cap to free up deadline spending.  Unless he has any trade value whatsoever where you obtain an asset in return, and have the possibility to save more (example - they withhold half of his AAV in a trade, and recognize $2m instead of $1M), why is he not waived immediately?  

The Sabres are (according to NHL Numbers) ~$2.45MM over the cap (including BF-LTIR) AFTER having sent Pilut, Wilson, & Asplund back to Ra-cha-cha.

Sending Bogosian to Ra-cha-cha relieves the Sabres of just under $1MM of his cap hit (the reason for that being to allow teams to bring up a cheap entry level body to replace a vet that can't get the job done).  Because that "cap space" doesn't exceed how much they are allowably over the cap, ($2.45 > $1) there is NO cap relief/ added cap space created by making that move.  As long as the team is permissibly over the cap, there is no difference between being $1 over or $10MM over.

So there is nothing to be gained by sending him to Ra-cha-cha in and of itself.   And if he's waived and then cut, they will save some money this season, though likely not enough to effect their cap and will have a portion of his salary still on the books next season.  Which is when they're hoping/ expecting to be out of cap jail, so there is no compelling reason to cut him this year either.

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44 minutes ago, rakish said:

The appropriate question isn't whether Bogo is the 8th best defenseman (which of course he is), the question Kreuger has to ask himself is he among the 4th best penalty killers (which he is). What you'all are reacting to is Botterill's crazy structuring of the team. Look at the last year and a half, the defensive players brought in: Dahlen, Montour, Joki, Gilmore, Miller, and Pilut. How many of those guys should play on your PK? Zero. Since Risto plays 1 of the 2 PP slots and 1 of the 4 PK slots, you're good with one of Montour, Joki, 
Gilmor, Miller, and Pilut not needing to play a special team. During this time, out went a reasonable PK player in Scandella. 

Now I think Dahlen and Joki will get there in a few years, and Montour has pretty good numbers despite the ugly PK goal in Nashville this week and certainly known as an offensive player, and Miller has some really good stats, despite neither Kreuger (Miller is the Sabres' most protected player at even strength) nor Vegas willing to play him on the PK last year. 

So if Botterill has brought in even a couple replacement level PK players, I can see the hate in this thread, sure, replace Bogo with them. But, for me, Bogo and Pilut play different positions, and you can't replace one with the other.  You would think structuring a team this way would lead to a terrible PK, which is where the Sabres are.

Kreuger is trying to deal with his incompetent GM by playing 11-7, which gives Eichel too many minutes, leading to games like Nashville where they ran out of gas.

 

Yes, one is a LHD and one is a RHD. Let Jokiharju and Dahlin learn the PK. Coach them to be better at it. Play Miller on the PK. If the only reason to keep Bogo around is he is kinda decent on the PK than that is a bad reason. 

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1 hour ago, rakish said:

Joki has terrible numbers on the PK this year. Kreuger tried that. Dahlin isn't ready, you don't hurry children that age. 

Liger, it's a terrible reason that they don't have anyone else. It's what incompetent GM's do.

What PK numbers do you look at?

The Shot Share and Goals For/Against numbers for Montour, Joki, and Pilut have been good on the PK this year.

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On ice goals/60, followed by the number of goals on ice for. I haven't uploaded the Nashville game yet

26 DAHLIN 22.64 1

68 OLOFSSON 20.51 2

10 JOKIHARJU 14.25 10

58 GILMOUR 14.17 1

6 SCANDELLA 11.77 12

13 VESEY 11.19 10

90 JOHANSSON 10.60 3

9 EICHEL 9.82 2

40 HUTTON 9.75 14

71 RODRIGUES 9.70 3

74 ASPLUND 9.15 7

33 MILLER 9.11 1

28 GIRGENSONS 8.33 20

55 RISTOLAINEN 8.1421

35 ULLMARK 7.35 21

17 SOBOTKA 7.25 3

22 LARSSON 6.73 15

19 MCCABE6.65 17

62 MONTOUR 6.21 3

24 PILUT 5.45 1

4 BOGOSIAN 4.92 4

67 SMITH/FROLIK 4.20 1

27 LAZAR 3.37 2

37 MITTELSTADT 0.00 0

21 OKPOSO 0.00 0

43 SHEARY 0.00 0

53 SKINNER 0.00 0

20 WILSON 0.00 0

23 REINHART 0.00 0

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My issue is your sample size. You are talking about a total of 36 powerplay goals against. Depending on the amount of pk time you have got and what occurred those numbers can skew widely. 

Again, Bogo is gone in 30 some odd games. They are not re-signing him. Yes put Jokiharju and Dahlin out there and let them learn. They are going to have to learn sooner rather than later. Bogo outside of maybe slightly better PK skills, doesn't bring anything else. Get rid of him or bench him. 

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46 minutes ago, rakish said:

On ice goals/60, followed by the number of goals on ice for. I haven't uploaded the Nashville game yet

26 DAHLIN 22.64 1

68 OLOFSSON 20.51 2

10 JOKIHARJU 14.25 10

58 GILMOUR 14.17 1

6 SCANDELLA 11.77 12

13 VESEY 11.19 10

90 JOHANSSON 10.60 3

9 EICHEL 9.82 2

40 HUTTON 9.75 14

71 RODRIGUES 9.70 3

74 ASPLUND 9.15 7

33 MILLER 9.11 1

28 GIRGENSONS 8.33 20

55 RISTOLAINEN 8.1421

35 ULLMARK 7.35 21

17 SOBOTKA 7.25 3

22 LARSSON 6.73 15

19 MCCABE6.65 17

62 MONTOUR 6.21 3

24 PILUT 5.45 1

4 BOGOSIAN 4.92 4

67 SMITH/FROLIK 4.20 1

27 LAZAR 3.37 2

37 MITTELSTADT 0.00 0

21 OKPOSO 0.00 0

43 SHEARY 0.00 0

53 SKINNER 0.00 0

20 WILSON 0.00 0

23 REINHART 0.00 0

This is PK goals against per 60???

Why is it vastly different from what’s on hockey reference?

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I'll take a big breath and hold it and run into the room where the kids tap on their gizmos... are there fancy stats for groupings of penalty killers? I'd be more interested in how these two D and those two F function together. Probably scoring chances allowed, not goals.

And breathe.

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4 minutes ago, PASabreFan said:

I'll take a big breath and hold it and run into the room where the kids tap on their gizmos... are there fancy stats for groupings of penalty killers? I'd be more interested in how these two D and those two F function together. Probably scoring chances allowed, not goals.

And breathe.

You're taking notes when you watch, no?

Edited by rakish
You're, **** ***
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4 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

My issue is your sample size. You are talking about a total of 36 powerplay goals against. Depending on the amount of pk time you have got and what occurred those numbers can skew widely. 

Again, Bogo is gone in 30 some odd games. They are not re-signing him. Yes put Jokiharju and Dahlin out there and let them learn. They are going to have to learn sooner rather than later. Bogo outside of maybe slightly better PK skills, doesn't bring anything else. Get rid of him or bench him. 

I think this is round hole, square pegging.  Some folks just aren't wired for some tasks.  I don't see the point in forcing it.  JBott should be addressing with the proper personnel next season, not putting the wrong guy into the wrong role to learn.

 

Heh, heh.  I said pegging.  Inkman must have ringing ears now.

Edited by Weave
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2 minutes ago, Weave said:

I think this is round hole, square pegging.  Some folks just aren't wired for some tasks.  I don't see the point in forcing it.  JBott should be addressing with the proper personnel next season, not putting the wrong guy into the wrong role to learn.

 

Heh, heh.  I said pegging.  Inkman must have ringing ears now.

I think the church of england just said that's not allowed or something. 

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8 hours ago, rakish said:

The appropriate question isn't whether Bogo is the 8th best defenseman (which of course he is), the question Kreuger has to ask himself is he among the 4th best penalty killers (which he is). What you'all are reacting to is Botterill's crazy structuring of the team. Look at the last year and a half, the defensive players brought in: Dahlen, Montour, Joki, Gilmore, Miller, and Pilut. How many of those guys should play on your PK? Zero. Since Risto plays 1 of the 2 PP slots and 1 of the 4 PK slots, you're good with one of Montour, Joki, 
Gilmor, Miller, and Pilut not needing to play a special team. During this time, out went a reasonable PK player in Scandella. 

Now I think Dahlen and Joki will get there in a few years, and Montour has pretty good numbers despite the ugly PK goal in Nashville this week and certainly known as an offensive player, and Miller has some really good stats, despite neither Kreuger (Miller is the Sabres' most protected player at even strength) nor Vegas willing to play him on the PK last year. 

So if Botterill has brought in even a couple replacement level PK players, I can see the hate in this thread, sure, replace Bogo with them. But, for me, Bogo and Pilut play different positions, and you can't replace one with the other.  You would think structuring a team this way would lead to a terrible PK, which is where the Sabres are.

Kreuger is trying to deal with his incompetent GM by playing 11-7, which gives Eichel too many minutes, leading to games like Nashville where they ran out of gas.

 

It’s not unreasonable to teach them PK, and expect at least 1 of those 5 names (if not more) to become a solid penalty killer. 

They are freaking defensemen, playing defense should be at least some part of their game, they’re not all Paul Coffey’s. 

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On 1/23/2020 at 5:03 PM, Curt said:

Jokiharju:

HR Shorthanded GA/60:  10.8  
HR Shorthanded GF/60:  2.2

Your # (on ice goals/60):  14.25

 

Sorry for the delay getting back, houseguest often mean painting rooms.

How I get the numbers explains why they aren't very accurate. NHL puts out what they call the HTML report, which lists all the events of a game. An example is http://www.nhl.com/scores/htmlreports/20192020/PL020752.HTM

If you look at that report, at event 5, at 11 seconds, 9,23,13,55,62,35 were on the ice for the past 11 seconds, so I add 11 seconds to each player's time on ice. It isn't an accurate method of keeping track of time, so in the end, I have Bogo's short handed time on ice as 50.97 minutes, whereas NHL.com is measuring Bogo's TOI more accurately (presumably), has Bogo having 41.5 minutes, therefore our GA/60 are different, I'm at 4.71. NHL.com is at 5.79, Hockey reference is at 7.1.

It would be great if I had more accurate stats, but using the method I do allows me to see each player's stats more granularly.

Going to Joki, after Nashville, I have him at 13.72, while NHL.com is at 10.87 and Hockey reference is at 10.8.

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48 minutes ago, rakish said:

How I get the numbers explains why they aren't very accurate.

Probably not a good idea to use TOI dependent numbers that you gathered yourself to make player evaluations then, if they are going to be so inaccurate.

Jokiharju and Pilut have had PK numbers just as good as Risto/McCabe this season.  Montour’s have been outstanding, better than anyone’s.

This could be due to facing PP2 units instead of PP1 though, and trying to draw conclusions from such small sample sizes is problematic anyway.  So I don’t know if any of it means much anyway.

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On 1/19/2020 at 9:02 AM, LGR4GM said:

It's been bad, it continues to be bad. Why the ***** is he getting ice time at all? Waive him and be done with it. 

He's getting ice time b/c they are working like hell to find a trade partner for him, I assume, and they need to play him to make that happen.  Don't get me wrong--I don't think he has any trade value--but Jason Botterill probably doesn't know that or at least has to try and work through that problem.

Of course he should have been cut from the team the day he demanded to be trade, as I pointed out in the thread on that topic about 1.5 minutes after news of the trade demand hit the airwaves.  

For the 10,000th time, I will reiterate that guaranteed Ks have ruined NHL hockey! 

NHL, lock them out next CBA, miss a season (or two!) and get rid of guaranteed Ks!  It's the only way to save the sport.

 

 

 

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26 minutes ago, Kruppstahl said:

He's getting ice time b/c they are working like hell to find a trade partner for him, I assume, and they need to play him to make that happen.  Don't get me wrong--I don't think he has any trade value--but Jason Botterill probably doesn't know that or at least has to try and work through that problem.

Of course he should have been cut from the team the day he demanded to be trade, as I pointed out in the thread on that topic about 1.5 minutes after news of the trade demand hit the airwaves.  

For the 10,000th time, I will reiterate that guaranteed Ks have ruined NHL hockey! 

NHL, lock them out next CBA, miss a season (or two!) and get rid of guaranteed Ks!  It's the only way to save the sport.

 

 

 

Isn’t it up to GM’s to make better deals?  Bogo was a terrible deal from the day it was signed, but the dumb GM who gave out the contract was bailed out by a worse GM who traded quality assets for the oft injured player.  Is it really a shock that the guy has played less then 50% of his games here.  
 

Remember TM gave up 1st rd picks and top prospects (aka retail prices) to acquire 2 injured players (Lehner and Kane) and Bogo who had a significant injury history (aka damaged goods).

 

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Bogo, Kane  and Burmistrov were all rushed into the NHL when they should have done a stint in the AHL. Atlanta was not the definition patience.

It took Chevy over 4 seasons to clean up the mess we inherited from the Thrashers. Give Bots another year to see what he can do with some contracts ending and maybe getting rid of one or two more?

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53 minutes ago, Ducky said:

Bogo, Kane  and Burmistrov were all rushed into the NHL when they should have done a stint in the AHL. Atlanta was not the definition patience.

It took Chevy over 4 seasons to clean up the mess we inherited from the Thrashers. Give Bots another year to see what he can do with some contracts ending and maybe getting rid of one or two more?

The fanbase is 3 years past give him another year ?

Edited by inkman
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4 hours ago, Ducky said:

Bogo, Kane  and Burmistrov were all rushed into the NHL when they should have done a stint in the AHL. Atlanta was not the definition patience.

It took Chevy over 4 seasons to clean up the mess we inherited from the Thrashers. Give Bots another year to see what he can do with some contracts ending and maybe getting rid of one or two more?

Botteril is not half the GM that Chevy is. 

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