Trade: Calgary Michael Frolik to Buffalo for a 4th

[PASabreFan]

RaKru puts some meat on the bone by talking about his experience coaching against Frolik in international play. Talked postgame about Frolik's character, Cup win history and expected mentoring role as an older player. The ascendency of Krueger on display here? (Not a certainty, I just want my prediction of Ralph assuming full and total command once he gets Terry to fire Jason to come true.)

[PromoTheRobot]

So now we know why Dalton Smith was waived. To free up #67 for Frolik.

[nfreeman]

Some data on Frolik:

- 6’1”, 190

- he turns 32 next month.

- he’s from the same town in the Czech Republic as Jagr is. 

- hockeydb and nhl.com list him as a RW; hockey reference lists him as a LW. 

- 3 years in Florida, then 2 in Chicago, then 2 in Winnipeg, then 4 in Calgary before this season. 

- in his 2 Winnipeg seasons and his 1st 2 years in Calgary, he was a pretty steady 40-point guy.  He dropped off in his 3rd season to 25 points in 70 games, bounced back last year to a 40-point pace again, but had a poor start to this year with 10 points in 38 games.  So he is likely in decline.

- as others have noted, he’s a UFA after this season, so this isn’t a long-term move.  It’s certainly reasonable to think though that they’ll get more out of Frolik for the remainder of this year than they would’ve gotten from Scandy.  

[LTS]

3 hours ago, Thorny said:

Miller could have been had, it's as simple as that. 

The bolded - the Sabres need the player. Not the pick. 

I can only address your edit.  Yes, the Sabres need the player.  That said, the Lightning don't need a 1st round pick this year. They have their own impending roster issues to deal with and I think them having an extra pick in the first round in 2020 or 2021 helps them more than a late 1st round pick in 2019. Do you think Ryan Johnson helps Tampa?  That's essentially that value you are throwing them.

3 hours ago, Derrico said:

Are you kidding me?  They have a 25 year old coming off a vezna winning season.  You think they were looking for a goalie prospect?  That’s the best deal tampa could make and had to move Miller for cap purposes so they did.  I’m pretty sure they weren’t specifically looking for a goaltender.

Don't focus on the goaltender then.  I've argued that.

1. The Sabres would have had to pay more because its in division.

2. The Sabres didn't want to give up a 2020/2021 pick and Tampa wanted a 2020/2021 pick.

3 hours ago, TrueBlueGED said:

If there's one lesson NHL GMs should have learned from the Vegas expansion draft, it's that paying the expansion team not to take players isn't a good use of assets. And the last thing in the world the Sabres need is a draft pick in the late teens to 20s. At the rate things are going, Jack will have a broken back by the time that player even sniffs the NHL. 

I would agree with you.  Unless it moves a $6M player off the roster at a time you need money cleared.  At a time when you've had enough 1st round picks that losing one might not be the end of the world and to a team that you only play twice a year.

That late draft pick is where the 2021 pick SHOULD be if the GM is doing his job.  I happen to think he is by weeding out the lower end players in the microtransactions we've seen up until now.  We are all aware of the cap space available next year.  The flexibility with the roster will be then.  No one has to like it, but that's how the cards play out.

The Sabres get Miller (for probably more than Vancouver had to pay) and they have to protect even more players that they will sign in this off-season.  They'll not have a first round pick and that could lead to an unwanted roster decision.

[Thorny]

24 minutes ago, LTS said:

I can only address your edit.  Yes, the Sabres need the player.  That said, the Lightning don't need a 1st round pick this year. They have their own impending roster issues to deal with and I think them having an extra pick in the first round in 2020 or 2021 helps them more than a late 1st round pick in 2019. Do you think Ryan Johnson helps Tampa?  That's essentially that value you are throwing them.

Don't focus on the goaltender then.  I've argued that.

1. The Sabres would have had to pay more because its in division.

2. The Sabres didn't want to give up a 2020/2021 pick and Tampa wanted a 2020/2021 pick.

I would agree with you.  Unless it moves a $6M player off the roster at a time you need money cleared.  At a time when you've had enough 1st round picks that losing one might not be the end of the world and to a team that you only play twice a year.

That late draft pick is where the 2021 pick SHOULD be if the GM is doing his job.  I happen to think he is by weeding out the lower end players in the microtransactions we've seen up until now.  We are all aware of the cap space available next year.  The flexibility with the roster will be then.  No one has to like it, but that's how the cards play out.

The Sabres get Miller (for probably more than Vancouver had to pay) and they have to protect even more players that they will sign in this off-season.  They'll not have a first round pick and that could lead to an unwanted roster decision.

Plenty of good forwards were available where we picked, they wouldn't have had to take Johnson. The point is that we clearly would have been able to up the ante slightly had it been necessary: we could have traded for him. 

I don't really understand your "need" argument. They don't need a 1st in 2019 but do the next year? Why? The player is years away regardless. 

Is your argument that we didn't possess the assets necessary to acquire him? They paid a 1st. We could have added change to our first if the first itself wasn't enough. We are talking the acquisition of a bonafide top 6 C and you are making arguments for why we shouldn't or couldn't have done it based on ever so slight deviations in trade value. Getting too hung up on putting together an exactly-the-same trade on our end when in reality, if we just look at the price that was paid, it was well within the range of our ability to match/exceed, one way or the other. You make it seem as if every single move JB has ever made is rooted in inevitability. That things could only possibly have turned out the way they did, that this is exactly the team Botterill had no choice but to assemble. 

Is it that difficult to admit it's a trade we should have made? If they wanted a 2021 first, we should have given them that pick. If you don't think JT Miller is worth a first (which we COULD HAVE PAID), that's a different argument. I totally disagree, but at least we know there's no bridging the gap at that point. 

Edited January 3, 2020 by Thorny

[GASabresIUFAN]

Not a fan of Scandella for Frolik, especially with Scandella being rejuvenated, Frolik basically being a 4.3 mill Sobotka, and helping the Canadians.  I give these 2 deals an F. 

[LTS]

7 minutes ago, Thorny said:

Plenty of good forwards were available where we picked, they wouldn't have had to take Johnson. The point is that we clearly would have been able to up the ante slightly had it been necessary: we could have traded for him. 

I don't really understand your "need" argument. They don't need a 1st in 2019 but do the next year? Why? The player is years away regardless. 

Is your argument that we didn't possess the assets necessary to acquire him? They paid a 1st. We could have added change to our first if the first itself wasn't enough. We are talking the acquisition of a bonafide top 6 C and you are making arguments for why we shouldn't or couldn't have done it based on ever so slight deviations in trade value. 

Is it that difficult to admit it's a trade we should have made?

The "need" argument is based on the Tampa Bay Lightning current roster.  That roster has 8 players who will have a NMC/NTC in effect in 2021 when the expansion draft occurs. Kucherov, is NOT one of those players.

Of those 8 players you have 7 who will be 30 or older at the time of that draft.  More young players, coming into their prime in 2021 isn't going to help them as much as a player who might come into his prime in 2022/2023.   

The Lightning will be forced to protect ALL 8 of those players unless they choose to waive their NMC/NTC.  So, how does a team like Tampa protect itself?  They go out and get a pick that might slide to the 2021 draft year so they have an extra asset to use in trying to steer Seattle away from Kucherov.

It's not difficult saying its a trade that should have been made.  If the deal was right, it should have been made. I'm just allowing for the possibilities of why it might not have been made.  

[Thorny]

6 minutes ago, LTS said:

The "need" argument is based on the Tampa Bay Lightning current roster.  That roster has 8 players who will have a NMC/NTC in effect in 2021 when the expansion draft occurs. Kucherov, is NOT one of those players.

Of those 8 players you have 7 who will be 30 or older at the time of that draft.  More young players, coming into their prime in 2021 isn't going to help them as much as a player who might come into his prime in 2022/2023.   

The Lightning will be forced to protect ALL 8 of those players unless they choose to waive their NMC/NTC.  So, how does a team like Tampa protect itself?  They go out and get a pick that might slide to the 2021 draft year so they have an extra asset to use in trying to steer Seattle away from Kucherov.

It's not difficult saying its a trade that should have been made.  If the deal was right, it should have been made. I'm just allowing for the possibilities of why it might not have been made.  

That's fair, but it's also fair to hold the GM accountable for not making it on the grounds that the indications are it was reasonably possible. It's obviously not a fireable offense, and truthfully not even a strike in isolation, but it simply illustrates one (of a number of ) example(s) that JB could have used to upgrade the team. When it's viewed in totality, it becomes clear that the "well, there isn't really anything he could have done" argument (not saying you are making it) doesn't hold water. 

As for the coming into their prime thing, it's not close to that exact of a science. Players don't come into the league, much less their primes specifically in accordance with their draft year. A player picked in 2019 may take longer that one this year, etc. As stated already, if they truly drew the line at a 2020 first, I would have said, "sure!". It was lottery protected and we need a 2C. The deal would be looking pretty darn good had we made it. 

Edited January 3, 2020 by Thorny

[Huckleberry]

Don't know if anyone has mentioned this yet, but he was part of solid PK unit in Calgary.   An area we really need help.

[Taro T]

1 hour ago, Huckleberry said:

Don't know if anyone has mentioned this yet, but he was part of solid PK unit in Calgary.   An area we really need help.

Hoping the loss of Scandella from the PK doesn't outweigh the gain from Frolik there.

Again, it comes down to: are they better with Miller/Pilut and Frolik in the lineup or Scandella and Rodrigues in the lineup.  They bumped a 12th/13th F and a 4th D from the lineup for a 9th/10th F and a 5th D. 

They also traded away the normal partner for a still green Jokiharju.  How he responds and how the PK plays will likely determine whether the Sabres are better off or not; from an on-paper roster construction standpoint they are better.  The games aren't played on paper.

[PromoTheRobot]

So I assume he makes his debut Saturday?

[Taro T]

1 minute ago, PromoTheRobot said:

So I assume he makes his debut Saturday?

Depends on whether he can get his visa by then.

[LGR4GM]

15 minutes ago, Taro T said:

Depends on whether he can get his visa by then.

I am guessing no. We don't play again until Thursday so that would also give him practice time. 

[miles]

7 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Not a fan of Scandella for Frolik, especially with Scandella being rejuvenated, Frolik basically being a 4.3 mill Sobotka, and helping the Canadians.  I give these 2 deals an F. 

It's better to just keep sitting d-man and having to pay them vs bringing in a player that will play every day and maybe help the team?

Come on, this is not a great trade, but it certainly makes sense 

[Scottysabres]

45 minutes ago, Taro T said:

Hoping the loss of Scandella from the PK doesn't outweigh the gain from Frolik there.

Again, it comes down to: are they better with Miller/Pilut and Frolik in the lineup or Scandella and Rodrigues in the lineup.  They bumped a 12th/13th F and a 4th D from the lineup for a 9th/10th F and a 5th D. 

They also traded away the normal partner for a still green Jokiharju.  How he responds and how the PK plays will likely determine whether the Sabres are better off or not; from an on-paper roster construction standpoint they are better.  The games aren't played on paper.

Not for nothing, but our PK is currently ranked 28th? I believe?

Scandella's absence certainly can't be so overwhelming as to not try to improve that position, no?

I mean, honestly, if we're hoisting Scandella as a 28th out of 31 team PK positioning as some sort concern, well, that just baffles the hell out of a fan like myself I guess.

[nfreeman]

I think the PK problems primarily stem from goaltending and coaching, not the play of the 2 forwards on the PK.  So I'm skeptical that Frolik will make much of a difference there.

[GASabresIUFAN]

1 hour ago, miles said:

It's better to just keep sitting d-man and having to pay them vs bringing in a player that will play every day and maybe help the team?

Come on, this is not a great trade, but it certainly makes sense 

I have zero problem with trading Scandella. I hate helping a team we are fighting for a playoff spot and really hate acquiring an over the hill more expensive Sobatka 2.0.  At least Sobotka could play Center.  You mean to tell me this was the only “decent” forward available? This team is desperate for scoring, desperate for good center play and you waste a good player for a 3/4th line winger which we have 10 of.  Ask yourself if this guy is 6 times better then what we are getting from Curtis Lazar?  My guess is that Lazar gives us more production, going forward then Frolik for 700k vs 4.3 mill. He is also 8 years younger.

Edited January 3, 2020 by GASabresIUFAN

[triumph_communes]

10 hours ago, nfreeman said:

Some data on Frolik:

- 6’1”, 190

- he turns 32 next month.

- he’s from the same town in the Czech Republic as Jagr is. 

- hockeydb and nhl.com list him as a RW; hockey reference lists him as a LW. 

- 3 years in Florida, then 2 in Chicago, then 2 in Winnipeg, then 4 in Calgary before this season. 

- in his 2 Winnipeg seasons and his 1st 2 years in Calgary, he was a pretty steady 40-point guy.  He dropped off in his 3rd season to 25 points in 70 games, bounced back last year to a 40-point pace again, but had a poor start to this year with 10 points in 38 games.  So he is likely in decline.

- as others have noted, he’s a UFA after this season, so this isn’t a long-term move.  It’s certainly reasonable to think though that they’ll get more out of Frolik for the remainder of this year than they would’ve gotten from Scandy.  

Calgary fan reports have mentioned he doesn't look worse, just getting less minutes as his role is redundant.

[Brawndo]

 

[inkman]

1 hour ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

I have zero problem with trading Scandella. I hate helping a team we are fighting for a playoff spot and really hate acquiring an over the hill more expensive Sobatka 2.0.  At least Sobotka could play Center.  You mean to tell me this was the only “decent” forward available? This team is desperate for scoring, desperate for good center play and you waste a good player for a 3/4th line winger which we have 10 of.  Ask yourself if this guy is 6 times better then what we are getting from Curtis Lazar?  My guess is that Lazar gives us more production, going forward then Frolik for 700k vs 4.3 mill. He is also 8 years younger.

4th line players don't score 15G/40PTS.  he's easily a 3rd like player borderline 2nd line. With Skinner and Olofsson being out he's an adequate fill in for the top 6 until one of them gets back. 

[inkman]

2 minutes ago, Brawndo said:

 

He looked at the wing depth and said, all I have to do is beat our Evan Rodrigues, Connor Sheary and Jimmy Vesey for some major PT with top six players. 

[GASabresIUFAN]

9 minutes ago, inkman said:

4th line players don't score 15G/40PTS.  he's easily a 3rd like player borderline 2nd line. With Skinner and Olofsson being out he's an adequate fill in for the top 6 until one of them gets back. 

If he puts up 15 pts the rest of the way we’ll be lucky.  If he gets 20+ I’ll admit I was wrong.  
 

I understand that he likes the opportunity here because we have no depth scoring but I disagree with him and Jbot that he’ll help solve that issue.  His days of being a 40 pt player were gone 2-3 years ago.  Now he is pacing about 20-25 per season.  

[nfreeman]

8 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

If he puts up 15 pts the rest of the way we’ll be lucky.  If he gets 20+ I’ll admit I was wrong.  
 

I understand that he likes the opportunity here because we have no depth scoring but I disagree with him and Jbot that he’ll help solve that issue.  His days of being a 40 pt player were gone 2-3 years ago.  Now he is pacing about 20-25 per season.  

Not exactly.  He was a 40-pt player last year (34 pts in 65 games), below that 2 years ago (25 pts in 70 games), and a 40-pt player 3 years ago (44 pts in 82 games).  He's had an unproductive 1st half this year, and as I noted above is likely in decline, but again was a 40-pt guy last year.

[wsam4031]

typical Jbott move. Take on another bad contract for a guy who is not producing. Can we fire this guy yet. Great he just added another KO, Gus, and Rodriguez. We have enough of these types of players for gods sake

[wsam4031]

11 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Not a fan of Scandella for Frolik, especially with Scandella being rejuvenated, Frolik basically being a 4.3 mill Sobotka, and helping the Canadians.  I give these 2 deals an F. 

agreed another F for Botts