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Sabres Best Defender Right Now?

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no contest...

==============================================================
Team  Player                   TRpm    GP    +/-  exp+/-  %min
BUF Marco Scandella           10.16    20    11    0.84   28.4
BUF Jimmy Vesey                6.22    24     7    0.78   22.1
BUF Jack Eichel                4.56    27     6    1.44   36.1
BUF Conor Sheary               4.23    23     5    0.77   22.5

fyi bottom 5...

Team  Player                   TRpm    GP    +/-  exp+/-  %min
BUF Jeff Skinner              -3.17    27    -2    1.17   29.2
BUF Casey Mittelstadt         -3.85    27    -3    0.85   21.2
BUF Colin Miller              -4.93    21    -4    0.93   29.9
BUF Sam Reinhart              -5.35    27    -4    1.35   33.9
BUF Jake McCabe               -6.31    26    -5    1.31   34.0

 

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I’m very aware of the limitations of +/-

But seriously, when was the last time the Sabres had a defenceman at +12?

Kudos to Marco Scandella.

 

Bogo and Montour at +5 already and Joki at +4? Even Risto is a +2.

These aren’t Ron Rolston’s Sabres.

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5 hours ago, SabresFanInRochester said:

#55

jennifer lawrence lol GIF

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Strange thing about +\-.  How do linemates end up with such divergent +\- stats.

Eichel +9, VO +2, Reinhart -3.  I get that Eichel gets extra minutes to generate offense 5 on 5,  but VO and Samson should be similar.  
 

Note: Vesey and Sheary are both +8.  Seems like both guys have elevated their play of late.

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I'm very interested in how evenly split the TOI was amongst the seven defensemen. I wasn't able to watch the game, was one of them used primarily in a forward role or was there a true rotation on the back end?

Does anyone think that seven defensemen will become the new normal?

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14 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Strange thing about +\-.  How do linemates end up with such divergent +\- stats.

Eichel +9, VO +2, Reinhart -3.  I get that Eichel gets extra minutes to generate offense 5 on 5,  but VO and Samson should be similar.  
 

Note: Vesey and Sheary are both +8.  Seems like both guys have elevated their play of late.

Thanks for making this point.  Very curious indeed.  

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8 hours ago, SabresFanInRochester said:

#55

I agree. It's hard to argue that guys like Jokiharju or Dahlin are our best defenders when the coach doesn't even trust them with tough minutes. Until you can put on your big boy pants without being sheltered by others who are really carrying the water, you can't be considered the best defender.

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3 minutes ago, Drunkard said:

I agree. It's hard to argue that guys like Jokiharju or Dahlin are our best defenders when the coach doesn't even trust them with tough minutes. Until you can put on your big boy pants without being sheltered by others who are really carrying the water, you can't be considered the best defender.

I think that's an unpopular take around here. I also think Risto is underappreciated by many. 

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5 minutes ago, Hank said:

I think that's an unpopular take around here. I also think Risto is underappreciated by many. 

Yeah, many people have a tendency to over-value the flashy new toys and Dahlin and Jokiharju both fit that description nicely. They are offensively gifted but I don't think I'd put either of them on the ice to protect a one goal lead in the final minute of play when the other team is desperate to tie it up. Down a goal, sure, but that says more about their offensive talents than their ability to defend.

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That’s why +/- is such a lame stat.

Eichel, and VO go off for a change. Reinhart is 10 ft. from the bench about to get off as his replacement is about to jump over the boards. A goal against is scored. Well, that’s  one for the - column. Such an inaccurate lame outdated stat. Especially so if they players +/- is under 10. Now if the stat is getting above/below 10 or 15, ok then I can see there is enough gap to surmise a logical opinion on the players or lines performance.

Another stupid stat or observation I dislike is “on pace”. It almost never ends up close to the “on pace” supporters spew.

Last year i remember reading ZOMG Eichel is on pace for 110 points! Fast forward to April and he gets 82. 😂 it’s like some people don’t take into account slumps and injuries.

as well as Eichel (as an example) is playing I bet he ends up with somewhere in the neighborhood of 82-92 points. Which, (let’s not confuse my stance), would be great!

 

i know it’s off topic talking about Eichel. But it was based on the +/- stat and I kinda morphed it to a larger issue 😂

Edited by Zamboni

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42 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Strange thing about +\-.  How do linemates end up with such divergent +\- stats.

Eichel +9, VO +2, Reinhart -3.  I get that Eichel gets extra minutes to generate offense 5 on 5,  but VO and Samson should be similar.  
 

Note: Vesey and Sheary are both +8.  Seems like both guys have elevated their play of late.

Reinhart doesn't play against the other team's empty net, Eichel does, it would smooth out the numbers a lot if you took them out.

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The Joker simply doesn't make a lot of gaffes.  He is dependable, smart, and has an offensive upside.  I have to give props to JBOT here.  He won that trade by a mile so far.

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1 hour ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Strange thing about +\-.  How do linemates end up with such divergent +\- stats.

Eichel +9, VO +2, Reinhart -3.  I get that Eichel gets extra minutes to generate offense 5 on 5,  but VO and Samson should be similar.  
 

Note: Vesey and Sheary are both +8.  Seems like both guys have elevated their play of late.

They don't play every single minute with their linemates.   

Icings, for example, force them to stay out on the ice in their d-zone, often when they're tired in the middle of a line change.   

9 hours ago, SabresFanInRochester said:

#55

Risto is +6 over the last 3 games... still a negative TRpm haha  🙂

Updated TRpm after last night....

==============================================================
BUF even strength goal differential through 28 games = 10
BUF average even strength goal differential per game = 0.36
exp+/- is a function of gp, %min played, and team ES goal diff
TRpm(team relative +/-) is the diff btwn actual+/- and exp+/-
==============================================================
Team  Player                   TRpm    GP    +/-  exp+/-  %min
BUF Marco Scandella            9.87    21    12    2.13   28.4
BUF Conor Sheary               6.07    24     8    1.93   22.6
BUF Jimmy Vesey                5.99    25     8    2.01   22.5
BUF Jack Eichel                5.43    28     9    3.57   35.7
BUF Zach Bogosian              4.32     6     5    0.68   31.6
BUF Brandon Montour            3.50    14     5    1.50   29.9
BUF Rasmus Asplund             2.31    10     3    0.69   19.2
BUF Henri Jokiharju            1.24    28     4    2.76   27.6
BUF Vladimir Sobotka           0.64    16     2    1.36   23.8
BUF Tage Thompson             -0.04     1     0    0.04   11.6
BUF Jean-Sebastien Dea        -0.04     1     0    0.04    9.8
BUF Johan Larsson             -0.17    25     2    2.17   24.3
BUF Rasmus Dahlin             -0.71    24     2    2.71   31.6
BUF Victor Olofsson           -0.98    28     2    2.98   29.8
BUF Kyle Okposo               -1.20    19     0    1.20   17.6
BUF Rasmus Ristolainen        -1.85    28     2    3.85   38.5
BUF Jeff Skinner              -1.90    28     1    2.90   29.0
BUF Curtis Lazar              -2.32     6    -2    0.32   14.8
BUF John Gilmour              -2.41     4    -2    0.41   28.4
BUF Evan Rodrigues            -2.98    14    -2    0.98   19.5
BUF Zemgus Girgensons         -3.14    28    -1    2.14   21.4
BUF Marcus Johansson          -3.14    21    -1    2.14   28.5
BUF Casey Mittelstadt         -4.14    28    -2    2.14   21.4
BUF Colin Miller              -4.33    22    -2    2.33   29.7
BUF Sam Reinhart              -6.36    28    -3    3.36   33.6
BUF Jake McCabe               -7.26    27    -4    3.26   33.8
==============================================================

 

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1 hour ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Strange thing about +\-.  How do linemates end up with such divergent +\- stats.

Eichel +9, VO +2, Reinhart -3.  I get that Eichel gets extra minutes to generate offense 5 on 5,  but VO and Samson should be similar.  
 

Note: Vesey and Sheary are both +8.  Seems like both guys have elevated their play of late.

Eichel and Victor make horrible line changes leaving Sam out to dry...?

Probably not, but a theory.

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15 hours ago, dudacek said:

I’m very aware of the limitations of +/-

But seriously, when was the last time the Sabres had a defenceman at +12?

Kudos to Marco Scandella.

 

Bogo and Montour at +5 already and Joki at +4? Even Risto is a +2.

These aren’t Ron Rolston’s Sabres.

Hey! Dahlin is a plus 2 also!

This is a recording.

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4 hours ago, Hank said:

I'm very interested in how evenly split the TOI was amongst the seven defensemen. I wasn't able to watch the game, was one of them used primarily in a forward role or was there a true rotation on the back end?

Does anyone think that seven defensemen will become the new normal?

I hope so, at least until a deal is made. Has everyone noticed how much Ristolainen's ice time has gone down lately, probably partly because of that? And, what a surprise, both his eye-test and underlying metrics have gotten significantly better since that happened. 

Edited by Thorny
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4 hours ago, rakish said:

Reinhart doesn't play against the other team's empty net, Eichel does, it would smooth out the numbers a lot if you took them out.

Would it? How many empty net points does Jack have this year, a couple? It might make up a bit of the difference but it's 12 notches currently. 

The Sabres have scored 2 empty net goals this year, and given up 1 in those situations. 

Interestingly, they've actually scored 4 with the goalie pulled and only given up 2. 

https://morehockeystats.com/teams/en

Edited by Thorny

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5 minutes ago, Thorny said:

Would it? How many empty net points does Jack have this year? A couple? It might make up a bit of the difference but its 12 notches currently. 

I can't account for all the on-ice goals, these are about 10 that Eichel and Reinhart aren't on the ice together.  I haven't downloaded the Jersey game yet.  My argument here is that plus/minus is highly usage based, the times that Eichel gets plusses when Reinhart doesn't isn't about how they play together, it's about usage. And this doesn't mean I like Reinhart playing with Eichel, I'm just saying using plus/minus as a tool doesn't help too much.

BUF #9 EICHEL(6), Backhand, Off. Zone, 5 ft.Assists: #55 RISTOLAINEN(5); #37 MITTELSTADT(4) 9,37,55,40

This one is 3-3, which have much higher scoring rates than 5-5, as 3-3, not sure how plus/minus counts

BUF #9 EICHEL(8), Wrist, Off. Zone, 9 ft.Assists: #55 RISTOLAINEN(7); #26 DAHLIN(11) 9,68,22,43,26,55

This one is a Buffalo empty net since there are 4 forwards and two defenseman on the ice.

BUF #9 EICHEL(11), Slap, Off. Zone, 26 ft.Assist: #53 SKINNER(5) 9,53,43,6,10,35

This is a case where he was on the ice with Skinner and Sheary

BUF #9 EICHEL(12), Wrist, Neu. Zone, 96 ft. 9,28,13,19,55,35

96 feet? Gotta be an opponent empty net

BUF #9 EICHEL(15), Wrist, Off. Zone, 23 ft.Assist: #4 BOGOSIAN(2) 9,43,90,4,19,35

Eichel's 15th with Sheary and Johansson

BUF #9 EICHEL(16), Wrist, Def. Zone, 144 ft.Assist: #55 RISTOLAINEN(8) 9,13,90,4,55,35

144 feet.

BUF #68 OLOFSSON(7), Wrist, Off. Zone, 12 ft.Assists: #9 EICHEL(11); #23 REINHART(7)9,37,68,10,33,40

This one is interesting because Reinhart gets an assist, but the data says he was off the ice, curious how this factored into plus minus

BUF #53 SKINNER(9), Tip-In, Off. Zone, 13 ft.Assists: #9 EICHEL(14); #43 SHEARY(4)9,53,43,19,55,35

On the ice with Skinner and Sheary.

BUF #68 OLOFSSON(10), Wrist, Off. Zone, 41 ft.Assists: #9 EICHEL(18); #6 SCANDELLA(4)9,74,68,6,55,35

On the ice with Asplund

goal against team: team 9,68,55,35 opponent 42,71,8,70

Eichel and Olofsson on the ice for a goal against, not sure 3-3 counts

BUF #22 LARSSON(2), Wrist, Off. Zone, 9 ft.Assists: #53 SKINNER(4); #68 OLOFSSON(6)9,53,68,22,26,62

This is another Buffalo empty net, as there are 4 forwards on the ice.

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12 minutes ago, rakish said:

I can't account for all the on-ice goals, these are about 10 that Eichel and Reinhart aren't on the ice together.  I haven't downloaded the Jersey game yet.  My argument here is that plus/minus is highly usage based, the times that Eichel gets plusses when Reinhart doesn't isn't about how they play together, it's about usage. And this doesn't mean I like Reinhart playing with Eichel, I'm just saying using plus/minus as a tool doesn't help too much.

Totally. I wasn't really making an argument for anything, making a point about how they play together, anything like that. Just took issue with the singular point about the discrepancy being about EN goals, when I couldn't see that particular explanation being the case because we've only scored 2 total. 

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7 hours ago, Gatorman0519 said:

The Joker simply doesn't make a lot of gaffes.  He is dependable, smart, and has an offensive upside.  I have to give props to JBOT here.  He won that trade by a mile so far.

According to Hockey reference he has 1 takeaway with 16 Giveaways.  That leads our Defensive core.  Even more than Rasmus and I would have bet even money Dahlin had more.  In fact his ratio of Take/Give is by far the worse.   Love the potential but there are gaffes.   And agree he won the trade so far. 

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4 minutes ago, Broken Ankles said:

According to Hockey reference he has 1 takeaway with 16 Giveaways.  That leads our Defensive core.  Even more than Rasmus and I would have bet even money Dahlin had more.  In fact his ratio of Take/Give is by far the worse.   Love the potential but there are gaffes.   And agree he won the trade so far. 

How does NHL define giveaway/takeaway?

Im not even sure, but I don’t think a poor pass right to the opposition, for example, would be considered a giveaway.

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Defenders.thumb.png.4207c9adc7f2aa38612d43da4919e623.png

 

I am honestly shocked that only PI added advanced stats to build his case.   I'll add on to his petition for Scandella.   

1.) The aforementioned +/-  , impressive mark for a Buffalo D man.  Better than Montour and Joki. 

2.) Relative Corsi and Fenwick leading the D core with 50/50 O and D zone starts.   Montour for example has worse numbers with a 60% Offensive zone start. 

3.) Wins and Losses.  Sabres are 12-6-4 with Marco in the line up. (He was injured in the Ranger game and missed a bunch of losses including Washington, NYI and two in SWE); And he literally saved the Toronto game by himself. 

4.) With and without - check out 2018 vs 2019.  

 

2018.thumb.JPG.82ac1e8c59fdbb406f0f7ce0a8632ef3.JPG 2019.thumb.JPG.936f88292908a290d09e923d0547d5a0.JPG

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23 hours ago, Hank said:

I think that's an unpopular take around here. I also think Risto is underappreciated by many. 

The team has a whipping boy every year. Risto has been it and the fans will be out with pitchforks until he is moved. Actually, I cannot say this is always the end result: It's a good thing we didn't listen to the fanbase and trade Reinhart years ago. Remember when he was out of favor?

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43 minutes ago, SabresFanInRochester said:

The team has a whipping boy every year. Risto has been it and the fans will be out with pitchforks until he is moved. Actually, I cannot say this is always the end result: It's a good thing we didn't listen to the fanbase and trade Reinhart years ago. Remember when he was out of favor?

In their defence, Risto in the second half of last year and Reino in the first half of the previous year were bad.

It’s when people can’t let go of the slumps that’s the problem. Risto has been fine this year.

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