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Erik Cernak Suspended Two Games For Concussing Dahlin

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53 minutes ago, Thorny said:

But rookie forwards are close to superstars faaaaaaaaaaar more often than rookie D are close to being Norris contenders. You are ignoring the relativity again.

So due to a Dman being the "best" player available...because Buffalo?  

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Just now, inkman said:

So due to a Dman being the "best" player available...because Buffalo?  

More than fair. 

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1 hour ago, Thorny said:

You have to accept that your view here, (as well as mine) has a great deal of subjectivity to it. 

You are saying "can't feel the difference" as if it's an objective fact. The reality of the situation is that, by plenty of metrics, Dahlin's rookie year was exceptional. Ignoring the relativity of the position, ignoring the context, takes meaning away from the situation and obscures the truth in this case. Only Housley ever had more points at 18 than Dahlin did. That is history making stuff. You are going to have to accept that people were able to experience Dahlin's rookie season as every bit as exceptional as that of MacKinnon and Matthews. 

Dahlin's rookie year definitely felt special to me, and on par with those other guys. He was doing historic things 18 year old d men do not do. It's ok if you felt different. You've already admitted you weren't as high on him as others. Even if you disagree, and that's totally valid, viewing his rookie year as special and comparable to those other players is also valid. 

I don't agree with the "can't get anywhere with this discussion" bit. Why not? All it takes is admitting that both views are reasonable here. If you can't pick apart Ink's list, you aren't trying. 

- - - 

Like, using OEL as a comparison for that argument? People realize Dahlin matched that "franchise defenceman"' in his prime OEL's production at age 27 last season, last year, at age 18, right? And are we expecting him to be Doughty and Suter immediately? I don't even understand what's going on. 

The hype machines of Twitter and 24 hour sports talks created unrealistic expectations.  Of which, your keen eye, has captured but most of us are like.

 

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1 hour ago, Thorny said:

You have to accept that your view here, (as well as mine) has a great deal of subjectivity to it. 

You are saying "can't feel the difference" as if it's an objective fact. The reality of the situation is that, by plenty of metrics, Dahlin's rookie year was exceptional. Ignoring the relativity of the position, ignoring the context, takes meaning away from the situation and obscures the truth in this case. Only Housley ever had more points at 18 than Dahlin did. That is history making stuff. You are going to have to accept that people were able to experience Dahlin's rookie season as every bit as exceptional as that of MacKinnon and Matthews. 

Dahlin's rookie year definitely felt special to me, and on par with those other guys. He was doing historic things 18 year old d men do not do. It's ok if you felt different. You've already admitted you weren't as high on him as others. Even if you disagree, and that's totally valid, viewing his rookie year as special and comparable to those other players is also valid. 

I don't agree with the "can't get anywhere with this discussion" bit. Why not? All it takes is admitting that both views are reasonable here. If you can't pick apart Ink's list, you aren't trying. 

- - - 

Like, using OEL as a comparison for that argument? People realize Dahlin matched that "franchise defenceman"' in his prime OEL's production at age 27 last season, last year, at age 18, right? And are we expecting him to be Doughty and Suter immediately? I don't even understand what's going on. 

I think I found a better way to phrase it - Dahlin's rookie year was spent as a good player, with flashes of top-pairing abilities. His highlights are in line with what 1Ds can do. 

McDavid, MacKinnon, Matthews, had top line (top pair equivalent for forwards) NHL allstar baselines whose flashes were of "nobody else on this entire planet can do this" territory. This difference was tangible. it's why Matthews was like 10th in Hart voting in his rookie year, 2nd among all skaters in goals, and why McDavid in a full schedule would have competed for the Art Ross. MacKinnon's production was lower, but still 70 points in a season where 85 wins the Art Ross. And he was blowing people's doors off, especially in the playoffs. The defense equivalent of these things is measurable and not something Dahlin approached. He was of ~3D baseline, and showed flashes of 1D play on occasion. These guys were All star, top line player baseline, with flashes of best on the planet at what they do. 

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11 minutes ago, Randall Flagg said:

I think I found a better way to phrase it - Dahlin's rookie year was spent as a good player, with flashes of top-pairing abilities. His highlights are in line with what 1Ds can do. 

McDavid, MacKinnon, Matthews, had top line (top pair equivalent for forwards) NHL allstar baselines whose flashes were of "nobody else on this entire planet can do this" territory. This difference was tangible. it's why Matthews was like 10th in Hart voting in his rookie year, 2nd among all skaters in goals, and why McDavid in a full schedule would have competed for the Art Ross. MacKinnon's production was lower, but still 70 points in a season where 85 wins the Art Ross. And he was blowing people's doors off, especially in the playoffs. The defense equivalent of these things is measurable and not something Dahlin approached. He was of ~3D baseline, and showed flashes of 1D play on occasion. These guys were All star, top line player baseline, with flashes of best on the planet at what they do. 

It's all a great point. 

I just happen to factor the relativity into the equation in terms of how I consciously viewed the goings-on. No one has to, I'm not saying it's the right way to do it, but I'm not being disingenuous or arguing in bad faith when I say I was able, personally, to appreciate it on the same level. 

Do I think he was having the same impact as those players straight up, no. There's just no law for what aspects and context the viewer is allowed to factor into their appreciation. 

Edited by Thorny

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2 hours ago, Randall Flagg said:

I get inkman's sentiment. It seems like all the top picks we get just aren't quite the same as the top picks we see other teams get. 

We did "better" in our 2013-15 tanks than the Oilers did, and yet Eichel and Reinhart are a shadow of what McD and Draisaitl do together. Dahlin's impact on NHL ice is nothing like that of Matthews, McDavid, MacKinnon

Though Eichel/Reinhart/Dahlin are more normal in that regard, while the guys taken all around ours are generally the exceptions. 

What did MacKinnon’s 2nd/3rd/4th years look like?  Was he fulfilling expectations?

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2 hours ago, inkman said:

Lets look at the Dman drafted near (not even necessarily number 1 overall) the top

2017 (4) Cale Makar - Front Runner (?) for rookie of the year

2015 (8) Zach Werenski - 50 point franchise Dman

2014 (1) Aaron Ekblad - Stud franchise Dman

2009  (2) Victor Hedman - A player I don't think Dahlin will ever come close to

2009 (6) Oliver Ekman-Larsson - Franchise Dman 

2008 (2) Drew Doughty - My God

2003 (7) Ryan Suter - Please

None of these guys had half the hype Rasmus did and most will likely overshadow his career.   I know a couple of these guys really struggled early on, Hedman comes to mind but we were told Dahlin was twice the player of all these guys.  The next Nick Lidstrom.  So far I see a guy who makes a few nifty plays a game and then barfs all over himself a half dozen times in those same 60 minutes.  

Dahlin outplayed them all in their rookie years at the tender age of 19 on a crappy team. 

The defensemen listed are all very good to excellent players but I see no reason to believe that Dahlin cannot be better than all, or most of them. 

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24 minutes ago, Pimlach said:

Dahlin outplayed them all in their rookie years at the tender age of 19 on a crappy team. 

The defensemen listed are all very good to excellent players but I see no reason to believe that Dahlin cannot be better than all, or most of them. 

He was supposed to be better. Generational.  If this is what generational looks like, I'd rather make the playoffs with a middling roster and draft 14th.  

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19 minutes ago, inkman said:

He was supposed to be better. Generational.  If this is what generational looks like, I'd rather make the playoffs with a middling roster and draft 14th.  

There was once a guy as good as just about anyone on your prior list named Chris Pronger. As a Whalers fan I'm very familiar with him. In his first few seasons he was HORRIBLE, like Matt Tennyson level bad. On those awful Whalers teams his awfulness stood out. He ended up a no brainer first ballot HOF'er, a cup winner and a key guy on 2 other teams that made the final (and carrying an Edmonton team to a game 7 they win if Rolo doesn't get hurt). So yeah, the idea that Dahlin is the next Tyler Myers is batshit crazy.

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6 hours ago, inkman said:

He was supposed to be better. Generational.  If this is what generational looks like, I'd rather make the playoffs with a middling roster and draft 14th.  

The thing is, you are comparing him to some ideal that exists only in your imagination.  Try comparing him to actual hockey players instead.

If having a better 18/19 yr old season than any other D in the past 25+ years is not good enough, then I think you should reevaluate expectations, because you are being unrealistic.

 

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19 minutes ago, Curt said:

The thing is, you are comparing him to some ideal that exists only in your imagination.  Try comparing him to actual hockey players instead.

If having a better 18/19 yr old season than any other D in the past 25+ years is not good enough, then I think you should reevaluate expectations, because you are being unrealistic.

 

I didn't create the expectations

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29 minutes ago, inkman said:

I didn't create the expectations

First, everyone has/creates their own expectations in their own mind.

Second, so what was the expectation then?  If having the best 18/19 year old season for a D in the past 25+ years wasn’t good enough, what would have been?

D just don’t have the same immediate impact at so young an age as forwards do.  I think that is clear, so you really need to compare him to other D.  Pre draft, Dahlin was most commonly said to be generational and the best D prospect since Denis Potvin.  At least that’s what I heard the most.

So then the question is, was does a generational D look like at 18-19?  You need to compare him to other D at that age.  If you do, he is right there among the best ever.

If your was expectation was that he would be top 10 in Norris or Hart voting, or be one of the elite D in the league as an 18 yr old or something like that, I say that’s an unreasonable expectation, because no D has ever done that at that age, except Orr I guess.

Edited by Curt
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33 minutes ago, Curt said:

First, everyone has/creates their own expectations in their own mind.

Second, so what was the expectation then?  If having the best 18/19 year old season for a D in the past 25+ years wasn’t good enough, what would have been?

D just don’t have the same immediate impact at so young an age as forwards do.  I think that is clear, so you really need to compare him to other D.  Pre draft, Dahlin was most commonly said to be generational and the best D prospect since Denis Potvin.  At least that’s what I heard the most.

So then the question is, was does a generational D look like at 18-19?  You need to compare him to other D at that age.  If you do, he is right there among the best ever.

If your was expectation was that he would be top 10 in Norris or Hart voting, or be one of the elite D in the league as an 18 yr old or something like that, I say that’s an unreasonable expectation, because no D has ever done that at that age, except Orr I guess.

Because anyone who claims he's the "best ever" at whatever is basing it soley on stats. Which is fine.  I want a player I watch on the ice and not cringe every time he touches the puck.  I'd have taken half the pretty numbers with a player who didn't look as if he was playing for the other team 20% of the time. 

No one is going to convince me of anything with this argument.  Get back to me when he LOOKS like a top 10 player in the league.  That's what he's supposed to be, right?  Better than Eichel, on par with Doughty, Ekblad and Norris candidates.  What good is drafting a generational player if he doesn't resemble the finished product until year 7.  Might as well trade Eichel and get some picks and players that will be good in 2025. 

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13 minutes ago, inkman said:

Because anyone who claims he's the "best ever" at whatever is basing it soley on stats. Which is fine.  I want a player I watch on the ice and not cringe every time he touches the puck.  I'd have taken half the pretty numbers with a player who didn't look as if he was playing for the other team 20% of the time. 

No one is going to convince me of anything with this argument.  Get back to me when he LOOKS like a top 10 player in the league.  That's what he's supposed to be, right?  Better than Eichel, on par with Doughty, Ekblad and Norris candidates.  What good is drafting a generational player if he doesn't resemble the finished product until year 7.  Might as well trade Eichel and get some picks and players that will be good in 2025. 

You've touched on the timeline, which is starting to get problematic. What will Eichel be when Dahlin is 25 and entering his prime? He'll be 30-ish, and that's when forwards are in decline. It's almost like they'll have to trade one of them eventually.

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44 minutes ago, PASabreFan said:

You've touched on the timeline, which is starting to get problematic. What will Eichel be when Dahlin is 25 and entering his prime? He'll be 30-ish, and that's when forwards are in decline. It's almost like they'll have to trade one of them eventually.

Eichel and Dahlin are only 3.5 years apart in age.  Of all the Sabres issues, this is not really one of them.

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8 hours ago, inkman said:

He was supposed to be better. Generational.  If this is what generational looks like, I'd rather make the playoffs with a middling roster and draft 14th.  

I have seen two defensemen that were more impactful as 19 year olds.  Bobby Orr and Dennis Potvin.  That’s it.  

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19 minutes ago, Pimlach said:

I have seen two defensemen that were more impactful as 19 year olds.  Bobby Orr and Dennis Potvin.  That’s it.  

You watching Potvin in Junior?  (He was only 19 for about 3 weeks of his rookie NHL season.)

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20 hours ago, Taro T said:

You watching Potvin in Junior?  (He was only 19 for about 3 weeks of his rookie NHL season.)

Ok, so he was 20.  He is still in my the top two for impactful as a rookie defenseman.  You could see he was going to be great immediately.  

Edited by Pimlach
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9 hours ago, inkman said:

Because anyone who claims he's the "best ever" at whatever is basing it soley on stats. Which is fine.  I want a player I watch on the ice and not cringe every time he touches the puck.  I'd have taken half the pretty numbers with a player who didn't look as if he was playing for the other team 20% of the time. 

No one is going to convince me of anything with this argument.  Get back to me when he LOOKS like a top 10 player in the league.  That's what he's supposed to be, right?  Better than Eichel, on par with Doughty, Ekblad and Norris candidates.  What good is drafting a generational player if he doesn't resemble the finished product until year 7.  Might as well trade Eichel and get some picks and players that will be good in 2025. 

Dahlin was better than Ekblad last year, already. 

Your argument makes sense through the prism of this season. I think he's been perfectly fine, with very good production, for a 19 year old D. But due to what looks to be a confidence issue, he seemed to have been going through a lengthy slump. I can definitely see how you might look at him and say "how is this guy generational?". 

It's just for me, personally, especially considering the growing pains we've seen basically every D, including the best ones, go through at this age, I am choosing to put more stock into everything that came before and am expecting that slump (which he was already finding his way back from) to be just that, a slump. 

Time shall tell. 

9 hours ago, PASabreFan said:

You've touched on the timeline, which is starting to get problematic. What will Eichel be when Dahlin is 25 and entering his prime? He'll be 30-ish, and that's when forwards are in decline. It's almost like they'll have to trade one of them eventually.

The thing is, we don't, hell, we definitely SHOULD NOT be waiting until Dahlin is in his prime to compete. Eichel is in his prime now. We need to be competing now. That's on the GM. We don't need to wait for Dahlin to be good to be a good team. It shouldn't have to be that way. 

If Botterill, or any GM, wants to reset the timeline every time he gets a new young top pick, he shouldn't be the GM. Those young players need to be developing into a winning environment, and that even factors in to maximizing the development of said players, and ensuring that the success continues to build. 

THIS is the fundamental issue with the franchise. They seem unable or unwilling to put down the INITIAL winning foundation. Winning has yet to be THE goal. You have to start somewhere. It's like the opposite of "damn, another pointless drive to 9th". With this YOUNG core, we NEED a drive to 9th. It's imperative for the development of the franchise, to the instillment of a REAL culture, to be birth of true expectations, for the psyche of the players we expect to lead the turn around. 

Edited by Thorny

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9 hours ago, inkman said:

Because anyone who claims he's the "best ever" at whatever is basing it soley on stats. Which is fine.  I want a player I watch on the ice and not cringe every time he touches the puck.  I'd have taken half the pretty numbers with a player who didn't look as if he was playing for the other team 20% of the time. 

No one is going to convince me of anything with this argument.  Get back to me when he LOOKS like a top 10 player in the league.  That's what he's supposed to be, right?  Better than Eichel, on par with Doughty, Ekblad and Norris candidates.  What good is drafting a generational player if he doesn't resemble the finished product until year 7.  Might as well trade Eichel and get some picks and players that will be good in 2025. 

Well, I don’t know what to tell you.  Defensemen are not near finished products at 18/19.  That’s just the way it is.  That’s universal, whether the player in question has “generational” upside or “just” top-4 upside.

As for Dahlin’s worst gaffes that have been common early this season.  They were not so bad last season.  I’m considering it a temporary dip in play as opposed to an indication of how the rest of his career will play out.  A bit of a short term sophomore slump.

Edited by Curt

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