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Jack Eichel: Eliteness

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And that’s the thing. As amazing as this streak has been, McDavid still has 11 point on him this year. Th gap between those two is crazy. 

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1 hour ago, That Aud Smell said:

Tierney FTW. (He’s a homer?)

He doesn’t have a Leafs Avatar, but he has a picture of his childhood Sabres Bedsheets. 

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2 hours ago, shrader said:

And that’s the thing. As amazing as this streak has been, McDavid still has 11 point on him this year. Th gap between those two is crazy. 

No one is as good as McDavid, yet Jack is seriously in the conversation for number 2 at this time. If you think about that draft in particular, it’s amazing there was that kind of talent at 1-2.

Also, it’s not always just raw points that mean everything. Doesn’t Draisaitl basically have as many points as McDavid? Yet Draisaitl isn’t on Eichel’s level. They certainly help each other. I love Sam and VO, but give Eichel Draisaitl and McDavid VO or Reinhart instead and the gap in points would decrease. Eichel is also right there with Connor at even strength. 

There’s a gap between McDavid and everyone, but no one is playing better than Jack Eichel right now. 

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3 hours ago, That Aud Smell said:

Tierney FTW. (He’s a homer?)

Don’t think he’s affiliated with Buffalo 

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5 hours ago, That Aud Smell said:

Hmmm.

 

The #### it isn't he's getting better shots.

Shockingly not having to cover for Pominville actually let's him freelance and score.

But let's find another reason to hate on his production. 

And btw, he was just under 17% until he got the  2 goals in their last game that pushed him to 18%.  But 18% apparently didn't work into the narrative - his production is CLEARLY UNSUSTAINABLE he's at TWENTY PERCENT (only he isn't) (shh.)

😉

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4 hours ago, Taro T said:

The #### it isn't he's getting better shots.

Shockingly not having to cover for Pominville actually let's him freelance and score.

But let's find another reason to hate on his production. 

And btw, he was just under 17% until he got the  2 goals in their last game that pushed him to 18%.  But 18% apparently didn't work into the narrative - his production is CLEARLY UNSUSTAINABLE he's at TWENTY PERCENT (only he isn't) (shh.)

😉

It might just be "puck luck".  But why would we care?  I suspect puck luck is the same thing we used to call being in the zone 20 year ago.  Except they use the description as a negative now.  An outlier.  Being in the zone was an outlier too, but noone used it as criticism, or a suggestion of unrepeatable performance.

I feel like advanced stats have ruined fandom.  We overanalyze everything instead of just enjoying what we watch.

Was 06-07 Danny Breire puck luck?  How about 92-93 LaFontaine?  Or 76 goal Mogilny?  79-80 Danny Gare?  Those were all performance outliers.

Why would we care? 

*old man yells at sky*

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Didn't Jack go to one of these off season programmes to work on shooting? Sure I remember that. (Got a mention on Chiclets). Seems it worked eh?

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11 hours ago, That Aud Smell said:

Hmmm.

 

It's moments like this that irritate me about analytics.  Analytics are statistics and they suggest trends.  They do not define them.  At best this person could post this and say Eichel might cool off.

The implication in the above statement is that the poster has all the facts.  However, let's say in any given a year a change in a piece of equipment, a rule change on goaltending equipment, or some other variable gets introduced.  Until the models catch up to the new variable, either directly by it being incorporated or indirectly due to the metrics being used to determine the model, the model will show outliers.

And yes.. Eichel is in a zone.  There's no doubt.  He's 10% shooter over his career, which, by most accounts, has not seen him at the top of his game. So.. perhaps he's a better shooter than we ever knew?  Perhaps not.

For now I am going to just enjoy watching Eichel play.. because he currently is playing as one of the best in the game.

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11 hours ago, That Aud Smell said:

Hmmm.

 

My personal opinion on this is that, yes, Eichel will not continue to shoot at 19%.  However, he has always had the shot talent to be a well above average shooter, despite the fact that he historically has not had a high shooting %.

I think it’s possible that a small tweak could have lead to a big improvement on that front.  It happens.  Just look at McKinnon (whose career arch Jack has followed pretty closely) as an example.

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12 hours ago, That Aud Smell said:

Hmmm.

 

iXG/60 eh? Snake oil, anyone?

17 hours ago, Doohickie said:

...and his Mogilny is only a rookie!

season 6 episode 25 GIF

How do you think I immediately recognized "old and tiresome"?

1 hour ago, steveoath said:

Didn't Jack go to one of these off season programmes to work on shooting? Sure I remember that. (Got a mention on Chiclets). Seems it worked eh?

Maybe. He spoke recently about working on his shot over the summer with an eye toward scoring more goals. He wouldn't be more specific with the questioner, presumably so he wouldn't give anything away/give any advantage to his opponent.

7 hours ago, Taro T said:

The #### it isn't he's getting better shots.

Shockingly not having to cover for Pominville actually let's him freelance and score.

But let's find another reason to hate on his production. 

And btw, he was just under 17% until he got the  2 goals in their last game that pushed him to 18%.  But 18% apparently didn't work into the narrative - his production is CLEARLY UNSUSTAINABLE he's at TWENTY PERCENT (only he isn't) (shh.)

😉

Getting better shots and taking better shots. See above.

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That goal today was very elite...grabbed a rebound in tight with traffic around him and quickly roofed the puck on his backhand on a bad angle. Not many players would have been able to make that play and he made it look easy.

Dude is just turning into a monster this year and a serious problem that other teams have very few answers for. He makes people look silly when they attempt to take the puck from him on the half wall.

Edited by matter2003
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3 hours ago, matter2003 said:

That goal today was very elite...

Best goal-mouth scramble since....?

 

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On 12/13/2019 at 9:26 PM, That Aud Smell said:

Hmmm.

 

I love the expected goals stat. It’s really cool. But like every other stat, it’s incomplete. It does not account for quality of goalie or quality of shooter.

It’s not puck luck. Jack’s just really good so he’ll always be on the top side of the mean.

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22 hours ago, PASabreFan said:

iXG/60 eh? Snake oil, anyone?

Nah.  It’s not gospel, but it’s not useless either.

It’s basically a gauge of how many shots a player is taking and how dangerous those shots are.

It estimates how many goals those shots would be expected to result in IF the shooter shot at a league average rate (on shots of that type, from that position) and IF the goalies were making saves at a league average rate (on shots of that type, from that position).  For this reason it will always underestimate goals for players who are excellent shooters because they are going to beat that league average shooting %.

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3 hours ago, Curt said:

Nah.  It’s not gospel, but it’s not useless either.

It’s basically a gauge of how many shots a player is taking and how dangerous those shots are.

It estimates how many goals those shots would be expected to result in IF the shooter shot at a league average rate (on shots of that type, from that position) and IF the goalies were making saves at a league average rate (on shots of that type, from that position).  For this reason it will always underestimate goals for players who are excellent shooters because they are going to beat that league average shooting %.

The snake oil comment refers to the name of the stat. It's someone trying to sound smart. Why not give it a name that is accessible to people?

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1 hour ago, PASabreFan said:

The snake oil comment refers to the name of the stat. It's someone trying to sound smart. Why not give it a name that is accessible to people?

It’s just an abbreviation for Individual Expected Goals.  

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12 hours ago, SwampD said:

I love the expected goals stat. It’s really cool. But like every other stat, it’s incomplete. It does not account for quality of goalie or quality of shooter.

It’s not puck luck. Jack’s just really good so he’ll always be on the top side of the mean.

But he's 2X *his* normal mean.  I don't expect that to continue indefinitely.

1 hour ago, PASabreFan said:

The snake oil comment refers to the name of the stat. It's someone trying to sound smart. Why not give it a name that is accessible to people?

This is kind of my beef with all the fancy stats.

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