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GDT: 11/19/19 Minnesota @ Buffalo, 7 p.m. EST


SwampD

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52 minutes ago, North Buffalo said:

Toronto following Sabres footsteps they just lost 6th in a row.

because you don't build a team that wins with a handful of star forwards (and their wonderful metrics). You do it with team defense and a roster filled with players who work hard. One or two superstars added to that mix and you are in business. The Buffalo and Toronto way is backwards and doomed to failure. 

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1 hour ago, Randall Flagg said:

Honestly, while I'm ***** at it. 

On a burn-the-tapes policy, Jason decided to enter a season as rookie GM with a rookie coach with the worst assembly of depth forwards a non-tanking Sabres team has ever had. Griffith, Nolan, Josefson, Moulson, Pouliot, Girgensons, Larsson, all at the same time at the beginning. Sam got his test at center, with Moulson on one side and Griffith on the other. We lost 7 of our first 8 games and never got closer to relevance than that. Despite the clear and desperate need for something, for anything, our lone in-season move as the months dragged on for these poor saps was a fifth rounder for Scott Wilson, who, along with Nick Baptiste and Justin Bailey and Evan Rodrigues, mixed in a bit to take some of the sad sacks out. We ditched Kane at the trade deadline, and determined that ROR's character was not in line with where the organization needed to get to. 

We entered season 2 and started hot, 17-6-2 through late November. But cracks were beginning to show - Our center spine was dangerously weak. Mitts obviously wasn't ready. No NHL team gave up more dangerous chances and generated fewer chances than we did during the span our streak took place, in which our goalies were both putting up Vezina caliber numbers. During the streak, a stretch of several weeks began in which the non Eichel-and-Larsson lines would play a combined 100 man games and contribute a total of one goal. This is why, despite Eichel pacing for 134 points for a four week stretch after the streak, we lost most of the games. by mid November, and certainly by mid December, many fans were desperate for a move to help the team out. it was stated publicly by the GM and ownership that the streak "wasn't who they were." They played their ***** off for December and January and February, to no avail - shoddy goaltending and general defeated malaise crept in, interviews longed for "finding what we had earlier in the year" but assured us they weren't giving up. A team that was capable of scoring 2 goals with less than 2 minutes left to tie, and then beat, Vancouver. A team that tied Montreal with less than 2 minutes left and beat them in OT, after trading blows all night long and besting them in OT in their barn a couple weeks prior. Last minute GWGs in another MTL game, along with minnesota. A furious 3rd  period comeback against Winnipeg. Same for Pittsburgh. Thrilling takedown of Boston, another 4 point night for the captain in doing so. Outplaying the cup champs twice, falling just short each time. This team, apparently, did not earn help. They were told to sit down and take their place, and so they did. An addition of one of ten NHL-capable defensemen they'd carry next season, at the trade deadline, 12 weeks too late, did little to help. 

Season 3: reversing course on Tage, not doing the same thing for Mitts, who looks like he should still be in college. Middling roster moves did nothing to bridge the relevant talent gap necessary, leaving to more fans already exasperated before the season began than I've ever seen. Two brilliant games, followed by a stunningly similar script from last season. 137 games, 11 goals from everyone outside of 5 guys, 2 of which have nothing special in the goals-scored department. Obvious inability to keep up with mediocre clubs, inability to create and manipulate offensive zone space against even the most porous defenses. No goals without a Jack contribution in 3 games, 6 of the last ten with zero goals while Jack wasn't on the ice. Is Jason going to sit and watch this team flounder for the third season in a row without a meaningful in-season addition? He could have fired coaches mid-season twice in two years with full justification and didn't. The cup winner last year was in last place in January and fired a coach and fixed the area of the ice that was holding them back. It's possible. You have to make in season moves when your team languishes, and you have to have talent to do it right. Otherwise you should not manage a club. At this point, this is not organizational patience. It's psychological torture, not for us fans, but for the players that get sent out there night after night with their 8th defenseman playing forward behind Lazar who's behind Rodrigues, asked the same questions in the locker room the last three years over and over, seeing what happens when one player says how he really feels, and what happens to him after he does so, along with the series wins experienced by Kane and Lehner. Just listen to the words of people who have recently played here, how they describe their new situations. This isn't an exercise in patience. It's useless time-wasting spirit breaking that is going to carry us into Jack's sixth season without coming within 15 points of a playoff spot (and never being closer than his first year). Jack Eichel is not cerebral. His game is built on strength and power in his legs, core, and ability to force feed skill by using them. This game is not guaranteed from Jack at age 33 for these reasons. This time being wasted is valuable. It relies on Casey Mittelstadt being an impact player, and the same thing for the lanky kid in the Yukon right now. It relies on a 19 year old in a position whose prime is usually around 26-30. This time frame doesn't work and never should have been attempted. It's going to break everyone involved, and has already broken the fans. 

***** or get off the pot, dude. It's beyond time. I believe tom webster. I believe something big was in the works. Make it ***** happen. Because this ain't it. Or please just leave, if you're not going to do that. 

And that is one thing Murray got right.  Eichel needed some guys that were closer to their primes to make him and the team effective.  The team had been fairly well gutted of GOID players in their primes and Murray brought in O'Reilly, Kane, Lehner, and Bogosian to have some top end vets to let him (& Reinhart) not have to do everything on their own.

It didn't work, but had Murray been willing to punt Bylsma when Gallant became available, would it have worked?

We are further back because of the O'Reilly trade than we should be but the team really (on paper) is that single transaction away (assuming all other deals & non were still the same) from being a playoff caliber team.

This team, is now on Dahlin's time line and Eichel & Reinhart will be the grizzled vets when this team finally (please let it be at least on that time line) is ready to compete for a Stanly Cup and hopefully Skinner is still useful by then.

And this is where frustration stems from.  We're already ~8 years into this morass and Dahlin's best hockey is realistically 3 years away (he'll still get better after that, but starting dominating is 2-3 years away and Jack, Sam, and Jeff need to rely on Marcus and Brandon for that push over the top at present and neither is "core" but they are good).  The top teams have at least 4 core guys and Buffalo (though they could have 7 should everything materialize right about 4 years from now) only have 3 at best at present.  8 friggin' years into this morass with 3 core pieces to show for it.

 

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Good stuff here.

The Pegulas have an addiction to rookie GMs.  And they’re rookie owners, ones who had no background in professional sports - they weren’t professional athletes and their parents weren’t team owners.  As a result they have no time-tested standards to which they hold and evaluate their rookie GMs.  The results (both franchises) have therefore been entirely predictable.

Sabres fans are paying the price for Botts learning on the job.  He is failing at his job and, barring an unforeseen turn in his approach and the on-ice results, I expect him to lose his job between now and July.  Within the next five years, I further expect we’ll have to suffer through Tim Graham depth pieces in The Athletic about how Botts is at peace and thriving in his new role as GM or Asst. GM in some other city, sorry that it didn’t work out in Buffalo but oh isn’t it great that he has learned his lessons the hard way about sitting on his hands for too long and over-focusing on culture instead of talent and has now gotten over his fear of trying to win.  Etc.

As long as the Pegulas continue to allow their sports teams to act as developmental organizations for sports executives, I fear that those organizations will continue to act as developmental environments for players as well.  Players will continue to leave Buffalo half-broken and go on to thrive elsewhere and give intimate interviews reflecting on how fighting through the dysfunction in Buffalo allowed them to grow mentally and made them better people and players, etc.  

Regier wasn’t kidding about the suffering that was coming.

Edited by Cascade Youth
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50 minutes ago, Cascade Youth said:

Good stuff here.

The Pegulas have an addiction to rookie GMs.  And they’re rookie owners, ones who had no background in professional sports - they weren’t professional athletes and their parents weren’t team owners.  As a result they have no time-tested standards to which they hold and evaluate their rookie GMs.  The results (both franchises) have therefore been entirely predictable.

Sabres fans are paying the price for Botts learning on the job.  He is failing at his job and, barring an unforeseen turn in his approach and the on-ice results, I expect him to lose his job between now and July.  Within the next five years, I further expect we’ll have to suffer through Tim Graham depth pieces in The Athletic about how Botts is at peace and thriving in his new role as GM or Asst. GM in some other city, sorry that it didn’t work out in Buffalo but oh isn’t it great that he has learned his lessons the hard way about sitting on his hands for too long and over-focusing on culture instead of talent and has now gotten over his fear of trying to win.  Etc.

As long as the Pegulas continue to allow their sports teams to act as developmental organizations for sports executives, I fear that those organizations will continue to act as developmental environments for players as well.  Players will continue to leave Buffalo half-broken and go on to thrive elsewhere and give intimate interviews reflecting on how fighting through the dysfunction in Buffalo allowed them to grow mentally and made them better people and players, etc.  

Regier wasn’t kidding about the suffering that was coming.

Okay, but let's also not assume that top level GM's and/or coaches want a job in Buffalo either.  Money may not be the issue, but it seems like the only ones who want the jobs are those unproven ones who can't get the same opportunity with other teams.  

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6 hours ago, Randall Flagg said:

I didn't really think tonight would be the night I broke but why not, they broke everyone else too

It’s Wednesday morning and I’m still pissed at this concoction of a hockey club.  I don’t get what the front office is putting on the ice.  

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5 hours ago, PerreaultForever said:

because you don't build a team that wins with a handful of star forwards (and their wonderful metrics). You do it with team defense and a roster filled with players who work hard. One or two superstars added to that mix and you are in business. The Buffalo and Toronto way is backwards and doomed to failure. 

Buffalo and Toronto are very different teams right now with completely different team strengths.  Toronto has many quality skilled forwards, and not enough good defensemen.  They score lots of goals and are among the leagues worst at preventing goals against.  Buffalo is the opposite.  They have a lot of good defensemen, not enough good forwards, don’t allow too many goals but also can’t score enough.

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17 minutes ago, Carmel Corn said:

Okay, but let's also not assume that top level GM's and/or coaches want a job in Buffalo either.  Money may not be the issue, but it seems like the only ones who want the jobs are those unproven ones who can't get the same opportunity with other teams.  

Sorry but I’m not buying the “it’s Buffalo, no one wants to come here” take.  There is no reason why an experienced front office exec wouldn’t come here.

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30 minutes ago, Carmel Corn said:

Okay, but let's also not assume that top level GM's and/or coaches want a job in Buffalo either.  Money may not be the issue, but it seems like the only ones who want the jobs are those unproven ones who can't get the same opportunity with other teams.  

The job in Buffalo should be a desired position.  We are talking 50 years of dedicated fan base that understands the game, improving facilities, on Canada’s door step, easy commutes, low cost of living, etc.  

So far the only ones that take the jobs are the unproven ones that are willing to work for Terry and Kim.   

Seymour got me and Bowman to come to Buffalo.  The city is not the problem.  

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30 minutes ago, Pimlach said:

The job in Buffalo should be a desired position.  We are talking 50 years of dedicated fan base that understands the game, improving facilities, on Canada’s door step, easy commutes, low cost of living, etc.  

So far the only ones that take the jobs are the unproven ones that are willing to work for Terry and Kim.   

Seymour got me and Bowman to come to Buffalo.  The city is not the problem.  

And owners who not only are willing to spend $$ but also give a TON of runway...

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2 hours ago, Cascade Youth said:

Good stuff here.

The Pegulas have an addiction to rookie GMs.  And they’re rookie owners, ones who had no background in professional sports - they weren’t professional athletes and their parents weren’t team owners.  As a result they have no time-tested standards to which they hold and evaluate their rookie GMs.  The results (both franchises) have therefore been entirely predictable.

Sabres fans are paying the price for Botts learning on the job.  He is failing at his job and, barring an unforeseen turn in his approach and the on-ice results, I expect him to lose his job between now and July.  Within the next five years, I further expect we’ll have to suffer through Tim Graham depth pieces in The Athletic about how Botts is at peace and thriving in his new role as GM or Asst. GM in some other city, sorry that it didn’t work out in Buffalo but oh isn’t it great that he has learned his lessons the hard way about sitting on his hands for too long and over-focusing on culture instead of talent and has now gotten over his fear of trying to win.  Etc.

As long as the Pegulas continue to allow their sports teams to act as developmental organizations for sports executives, I fear that those organizations will continue to act as developmental environments for players as well.  Players will continue to leave Buffalo half-broken and go on to thrive elsewhere and give intimate interviews reflecting on how fighting through the dysfunction in Buffalo allowed them to grow mentally and made them better people and players, etc.  

Regier wasn’t kidding about the suffering that was coming.

At what point do the Pegulas stop being considered rookie owners? They own two professional franchises and have had the Sabres for almost a decade. 

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8 hours ago, Curt said:

I honestly am not sure what you are getting at?  And what is has to do with Skinner?

Coming into the season, many were concerned about the forward depth and those concerns are looking to be warranted.  Coaching is still a bit of an open question I think.

Thorny pretty much nailed it. I'm accused (rightly, probably) of cherry picking Skinner's recent numbers (though his production over the course of that many games, with the season starting to swirl down the terlet, seems fair game), but it's also cherry picking to only look at the Sabres' last 10 games (record-wise, anyway) and draw conclusions about Krueger, Botterill et al.

8 hours ago, SwampD said:

Didn’t read it all.

Didn’t have to.

It was fantastic.

Randall's grocery lists are fantastic. Father and son are in the same tortured place. We both know certain someones at One Sabres Drive who are killing our team, and few are totally behind our crusades. (But, slowly they are coming around.)

56 minutes ago, Pimlach said:

The job in Buffalo should be a desired position.  We are talking 50 years of dedicated fan base that understands the game, improving facilities, on Canada’s door step, easy commutes, low cost of living, etc.  

So far the only ones that take the jobs are the unproven ones that are willing to work for Terry and Kim.   

Seymour got me and Bowman to come to Buffalo.  The city is not the problem.  

One of the great SS developments in another trying season is the occasional emergence of Punch's voice, from beyond the grave.

25 minutes ago, Cascade Youth said:

And owners who not only are willing to spend $$ but also give a TON of runway...

There are some former employees who might disagree. But, totally, Botterill knows, either directly or indirectly, that he has plenty of time. He was Terry's hire through and through (Terry's first real GM hire, if we are to believe him), and there's no way Terry will want to face the music if he fires him (someone take that sentence out back). Also, and this would be a very reasonable position for Terry to take: we really can't keep firing people every couple of years.

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1 hour ago, Pimlach said:

The job in Buffalo should be a desired position.  We are talking 50 years of dedicated fan base that understands the game, improving facilities, on Canada’s door step, easy commutes, low cost of living, etc.  

So far the only ones that take the jobs are the unproven ones that are willing to work for Terry and Kim.   

Seymour got me and Bowman to come to Buffalo.  The city is not the problem.  

I am not referring to Buffalo itself for the very reasons you mention in your first point.  I am saying that it may have something to do with your second point about working for the Pegulas.  Seymour is no longer in charge.  Going back to an earlier post from somebody else....I don't think someone like Lou Lamoriello would consider it.

Again, it's not the city itself, but the ownership (despite the deep pockets).

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One thing that has interested me the last couple years are the Vegas Knights. When they first drafted, the average pundit said they would be terrible, that you can't get top end talent from taking the other teams 8th(?) best player. That was, obviously, wrong. Vegas has been and is a potential cup winner.

When people talk about Vegas, they talk about coaching, so I my project this year is watching highlights trying to quantify why teams score. I've always believed watching Buffalo looks different than watching Vegas, but I wasn't sure if that was me, or them. This is last nights chart against Minnesota, each team moved the puck acrost the ice twice. Now the rules for what counts is a bit fuzzy, but what I'm trying to get at is, does the belief of 'Pucks to the Net', that is repeated endlessly, work.

Last night both of Minnesota's passes ended up in the back of the net, while neither of Buffalo's. As an extreme comparison, this is the Vegas Calgary game the other night. While it's true that you won't get all the Goaltender Moving Opportunities from watching highlights, I think you get enough of them to get a fair understanding of who is making the extra pass, and who is being coached to get pucks to the net. I'll be talking more about this.

Nov19MinnesotaBuffalo.png

Nov17CalgaryVegas.png

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13 minutes ago, rakish said:

One thing that has interested me the last couple years are the Vegas Knights. When they first drafted, the average pundit said they would be terrible, that you can't get top end talent from taking the other teams 8th(?) best player. That was, obviously, wrong. Vegas has been and is a potential cup winner.

When people talk about Vegas, they talk about coaching, so I my project this year is watching highlights trying to quantify why teams score. I've always believed watching Buffalo looks different than watching Vegas, but I wasn't sure if that was me, or them. This is last nights chart against Minnesota, each team moved the puck acrost the ice twice. Now the rules for what counts is a bit fuzzy, but what I'm trying to get at is, does the belief of 'Pucks to the Net', that is repeated endlessly, work.

Last night both of Minnesota's passes ended up in the back of the net, while neither of Buffalo's. As an extreme comparison, this is the Vegas Calgary game the other night. While it's true that you won't get all the Goaltender Moving Opportunities from watching highlights, I think you get enough of them to get a fair understanding of who is making the extra pass, and who is being coached to get pucks to the net. I'll be talking more about this.

Nov19MinnesotaBuffalo.png

Nov17CalgaryVegas.png

This is a great and informative post, thank you.

With what your seeing information wise in so far as you've dug up to date, can you point to a player personnel problem, such as hesitancy or lack of vision on the ice or coaching? Curious as to your take.

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1 minute ago, Scottysabres said:

This is a great and informative post, thank you.

With what your seeing information wise in so far as you've dug up to date, can you point to a player personnel problem, such as hesitancy or lack of vision on the ice or coaching? Curious as to your take.

Watch Mittelstadt. I believe the Buffalo Sabres are telling him to go to the front of the net and get the rebound from Vesey's shot. This is a strategy that works somewhere between once per game, and twice per game, for each team (that's the list of each game at the bottom, minus the empty nets).

Now watch Reilly Smith, or William Karlsson, or Marchesseault. They pass it to each other until one has a good shot. It's a different strategy. It works better, it's far more entertaining.

I do think the Sabres have a talent problem, but for me it's not the core problem.

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17 minutes ago, rakish said:

Watch Mittelstadt. I believe the Buffalo Sabres are telling him to go to the front of the net and get the rebound from Vesey's shot. This is a strategy that works somewhere between once per game, and twice per game, for each team (that's the list of each game at the bottom, minus the empty nets).

Now watch Reilly Smith, or William Karlsson, or Marchesseault. They pass it to each other until one has a good shot. It's a different strategy. It works better, it's far more entertaining.

I do think the Sabres have a talent problem, but for me it's not the core problem.

Thank you again for the input. Most revealing.

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