PerreaultForever Posted March 7, 2020 Report Share Posted March 7, 2020 imo we're building the wrong kind of D to be good at PK. We should be better on the PP though with the players we have. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thorny Posted March 7, 2020 Report Share Posted March 7, 2020 (edited) On 3/5/2020 at 12:05 PM, Ducky said: Ehlers can skate backwards faster than Sam forwards and gets O zone with ease. He is signed for 5 more seasons after this one at 6m per. Haven't seen him play much but from what I read on here, Ehlers' D game is better as well. I would trade Roslo for Mittelstadt though. Mitts' ceiling is still considerably higher so I wouldn't make that move. You are probably right though that Ehlers is the more valuable player between him and Sam. Lucky for you, Botterill is a dunce, because Chevy was willing to move Ehlers for Risto in the summer and Botts balked. Edited March 7, 2020 by Thorny Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Curt Posted March 7, 2020 Report Share Posted March 7, 2020 5 hours ago, pi2000 said: It tells you who is on the ice for more net goals for/against at even strength when compared to teammates. It only compares players against eachother on the same team,... who contributes positively and negatively to the team's even strength goal differential. I think people really do understand what it is that you are doing there. It’s just maybe not as clever or valuable as you are making it out to be. It’s +/- adjusted for ice time. It’s more useful that regular +/- but not much. It doesn’t take into account goalie performance (teammate or opposition), quality of linemates, quality of opposition, or offensive/defensive usage. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zamboni Posted March 7, 2020 Report Share Posted March 7, 2020 1 hour ago, Curt said: I think people really do understand what it is that you are doing there. It’s just maybe not as clever or valuable as you are making it out to be. It’s +/- adjusted for ice time. It’s more useful that regular +/- but not much. It doesn’t take into account goalie performance (teammate or opposition), quality of linemates, quality of opposition, or offensive/defensive usage. Wow really? It’s even more near useless of a stat than I originally thought. I see the skewed limitations of it. But hey, maybe you just don’t understand the stat. ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pi2000 Posted March 7, 2020 Report Share Posted March 7, 2020 (edited) 2 hours ago, Curt said: I think people really do understand what it is that you are doing there. It’s just maybe not as clever or valuable as you are making it out to be. It’s +/- adjusted for ice time. It’s more useful that regular +/- but not much. It doesn’t take into account goalie performance (teammate or opposition), quality of linemates, quality of opposition, or offensive/defensive usage. I never said it did any of those things. It's adjusted plus minus to see who's helping contribute to the team's success or struggles at even strength. Looking at a team like Detroit, I find it interesting to look at which players are anchors vs which players are secretly having good seasons even though their raw +/- might look terrible, eg Dylan Larkin is a -23 but a +8 TRpm, vs Christopher Ehn who's a -22 but a -10 TRpm. Edited March 7, 2020 by pi2000 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Buffalo Posted March 7, 2020 Report Share Posted March 7, 2020 I'd trade Sam for a top 5 pick and prospect... or a legit 2C... Sam is a good fit on the right team... Sabres are not the right team and he is too affable. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PerreaultForever Posted March 7, 2020 Report Share Posted March 7, 2020 On 3/5/2020 at 10:05 AM, Ducky said: Ehlers can skate backwards faster than Sam forwards and gets O zone with ease. He is signed for 5 more seasons after this one at 6m per. Haven't seen him play much but from what I read on here, Ehlers' D game is better as well. To stay on topic, is there argument with this comment above or general agreement? If there's agreement with it how do you justify offering Sam more than Ehlers? He should get less. Winnipeg would never do it, but would anyone here not trade Reinhart for Ehlers and if so why? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Curt Posted March 7, 2020 Report Share Posted March 7, 2020 Daily Reinhart Update 3/6/2020: 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 shots, 0 hits, 0 blocked shots Was this guy even on the ice? 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torpedo Forecheck Posted March 7, 2020 Report Share Posted March 7, 2020 4 hours ago, Curt said: Daily Reinhart Update 3/6/2020: 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 shots, 0 hits, 0 blocked shots Was this guy even on the ice? His agent instructed him to avoid injury at all costs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
triumph_communes Posted March 7, 2020 Report Share Posted March 7, 2020 13 hours ago, pi2000 said: I dont believe a new special teams coach will fix the PK entirely, maybe a marginal improvement. They're ranked 10th worst in high danger scoring chances on the PK, could be better, but not historically terrible. Their xGA on the PK is 36, while they've given up 47. At 36 goals against, their PK% jumps from 74 to 80%... Which would put them in the middle of the league. They say your best penalty killer is your goalie. Fix the goalie situation, add a 2C and they're easily in the playoff mix. Fair assessment, agrees with eye tests too Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ducky Posted March 8, 2020 Report Share Posted March 8, 2020 On 3/6/2020 at 6:55 PM, Thorny said: Mitts' ceiling is still considerably higher so I wouldn't make that move. You are probably right though that Ehlers is the more valuable player between him and Sam. Lucky for you, Botterill is a dunce, because Chevy was willing to move Ehlers for Risto in the summer and Botts balked. Chevy isn't stupid enough to do that and if you believe it, how many of Chevy's trades were talked about before they happened? None that I can think of. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ducky Posted March 8, 2020 Report Share Posted March 8, 2020 On 3/7/2020 at 1:29 AM, PerreaultForever said: To stay on topic, is there argument with this comment above or general agreement? If there's agreement with it how do you justify offering Sam more than Ehlers? He should get less. Winnipeg would never do it, but would anyone here not trade Reinhart for Ehlers and if so why? What was the cap when Ehlers signed and what is the cap when Sam signs? Also, Ehlers is on a sweet deal just like Scheif, Pionk and Morrissey. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StuckinFL Posted March 8, 2020 Report Share Posted March 8, 2020 I dunno, trading Sam does not exist in a vacuum. Gotta remember whom is either signing or trading him. I think JBot can do less damage signing him rather than trading him. He may overpay him by 1 mil, but if he trades for him I think it's fairly obvious the return would be disastrous. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Curt Posted March 8, 2020 Report Share Posted March 8, 2020 38 minutes ago, Ducky said: What was the cap when Ehlers signed and what is the cap when Sam signs? Also, Ehlers is on a sweet deal just like Scheif, Pionk and Morrissey. The answer is $75M, Ehlers $6M contract was 8% of the cap. Next season the cap will reportedly be $84-88M. So if Reinhart signs for 8% of the cap, that would be $6.75 to 7M. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zamboni Posted March 8, 2020 Report Share Posted March 8, 2020 I posted this last night.... Detroit Is in a rebuild. Dylan Larkin is their “Jack Eichel”. If they were to move him, it would have to hurt the other team just like it would hurt them to move him. They would demand significant pieces back. Cozens, Reinhart, and 2021 1st for Dylan Larkin. Sabres get that 2C for years. With a fair contract at 6.1 cap hit for three more seasons. Sabres become instant playoff contenders. (As long as the holes on the team get filled well). center spine would be Eichel, Larkin, Kahun (maybe), and Larsson (if we re-sign him) Detriot gets a promising center prospect who hasn’t played a second in the NHL and is completely unproven. He could or could not develop into an effective top 6 NHL center. They get a veteran winger who produces and can play on the top six with very good vision and passing. They get a future pick to help stock up on their pipeline. Now Detroit may want more, because Larkin is their Eichel, but IF JB offered that .... should Detroit take it? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dudacek Posted March 8, 2020 Report Share Posted March 8, 2020 (edited) 1 hour ago, Zamboni said: I posted this last night.... Detroit Is in a rebuild. Dylan Larkin is their “Jack Eichel”. If they were to move him, it would have to hurt the other team just like it would hurt them to move him. They would demand significant pieces back. Cozens, Reinhart, and 2021 1st for Dylan Larkin. Sabres get that 2C for years. With a fair contract at 6.1 cap hit for three more seasons. Sabres become instant playoff contenders. (As long as the holes on the team get filled well). center spine would be Eichel, Larkin, Kahun (maybe), and Larsson (if we re-sign him) Detriot gets a promising center prospect who hasn’t played a second in the NHL and is completely unproven. He could or could not develop into an effective top 6 NHL center. They get a veteran winger who produces and can play on the top six with very good vision and passing. They get a future pick to help stock up on their pipeline. Now Detroit may want more, because Larkin is their Eichel, but IF JB offered that .... should Detroit take it? Larkin is not Eichel. Statistically, Sam is his equal. Cozens projects to be a similar-level player. Larkin will be a UFA in three years. You have minimum of two more years control over Sam and the potential for several more depending on what direction you take this summer. Cozens is under your control for 7 more years minimum, the 1st three very cheaply. I like Larkin a lot and think he is exactly what the Sabres need, and find it hard to picture a scenario where Detroit would trade him. Sam and a sweetener, yes. Cozens and a sweetener, yes. But those two players together is too high a price.Throwing in a first on top of it is bad asset management. Edited March 8, 2020 by dudacek Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zamboni Posted March 8, 2020 Report Share Posted March 8, 2020 17 minutes ago, dudacek said: Larkin is not Eichel. Statistically, Sam is his equal. Cozens projects to be a similar-level player. Larkin will be a UFA in three years. You have minimum of two more years control over Sam and the potential for several more depending on what direction you take this summer. Cozens is under your control for 7 more years minimum, the 1st three very cheaply. I like Larkin a lot and think he is exactly what the Sabres need, and find it hard to picture a scenario where Detroit would trade him. Sam and a sweetener, yes. Cozens and a sweetener, yes. But those two players together is too high a price.Throwing in a first on top of it is bad asset management. I did not type ... Larkin is Eichel. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dudacek Posted March 8, 2020 Report Share Posted March 8, 2020 3 minutes ago, Zamboni said: I did not type ... Larkin is Eichel. Wasn’t trying to imply you did. I was implying your offer would need more than Larkin coming back. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zamboni Posted March 8, 2020 Report Share Posted March 8, 2020 (edited) 33 minutes ago, dudacek said: Wasn’t trying to imply you did. I was implying your offer would need more than Larkin coming back. I personally wouldn’t do that trade. But IF Detroit was entertaining the idea of moving him, they would want and probably get Significant pieces. Not as much as say a McDavid, or Eichel trade obviously. But it’s gonna hurt the team who trades for him to a degree. But the plus side is you get a very good center who on a deep team can play 2C, and spot duty on the top line if your 1C goes cold or gets injured. It’s intriguing. Edited March 8, 2020 by Zamboni Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thorny Posted March 8, 2020 Report Share Posted March 8, 2020 (edited) 10 hours ago, Ducky said: Chevy isn't stupid enough to do that and if you believe it, how many of Chevy's trades were talked about before they happened? None that I can think of. It was mentioned repeatedly by a reputable source that the deal was on the table. Chad DeDominicis has connections within the Sabres organization and doesn't just spew crap. He was the first to break the Sabres deals on deadline day, he's someone I trust to get the info correct. Chevy is a great GM. He has made plenty of mistakes - he's not infallible. He was let off the hook from making a potential one there. It wasn't Risto straight up, it was something like Risto and a pick/prospect. You don't have to trust a source I'm guessing you aren't familiar with if you don't wanna, but to me he's proven his legitimacy. Edited March 8, 2020 by Thorny Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PerreaultForever Posted March 9, 2020 Report Share Posted March 9, 2020 11 hours ago, Curt said: The answer is $75M, Ehlers $6M contract was 8% of the cap. Next season the cap will reportedly be $84-88M. So if Reinhart signs for 8% of the cap, that would be $6.75 to 7M. His salary shouldn't be based on a percentage just because a number rises. It has to be measured in terms of value. If Ehlers is better I don't see how you make an argument to pay another guy more just because the cap went up. presumably you want your extra cap money for additional talent. So, for example, you say Ehlers was worth 6 million and so Sam not quite as good hypothetically worth 5.5 million if it was at that time. Then take that 5.5 million and bump it up by the cap increase percentage. Then the cap is what, roughly 10 % higher so he gets an additional 10 % of that 5.5 million which makes it just over 6 million. No reason to pay a dime more. Kyle Connor signed just this year for 7 million. You pay him more than him and that's just f'n nuts. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Curt Posted March 9, 2020 Report Share Posted March 9, 2020 25 minutes ago, PerreaultForever said: His salary shouldn't be based on a percentage just because a number rises. It has to be measured in terms of value. If Ehlers is better I don't see how you make an argument to pay another guy more just because the cap went up. presumably you want your extra cap money for additional talent. So, for example, you say Ehlers was worth 6 million and so Sam not quite as good hypothetically worth 5.5 million if it was at that time. Then take that 5.5 million and bump it up by the cap increase percentage. Then the cap is what, roughly 10 % higher so he gets an additional 10 % of that 5.5 million which makes it just over 6 million. No reason to pay a dime more. Kyle Connor signed just this year for 7 million. You pay him more than him and that's just f'n nuts. I was just doing the math. I wasn’t making any judgment about who is worth what. I’m so sick of reading about Reinhart and his impending contract/trade that there is no way I’m getting into it. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PerreaultForever Posted March 9, 2020 Report Share Posted March 9, 2020 5 hours ago, Curt said: I’m so sick of reading about Reinhart and his impending contract/trade that there is no way I’m getting into it. Just asking, but then why are you reading a topic entitled "Reinhart, sign him or trade him" ? 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pi2000 Posted March 10, 2020 Report Share Posted March 10, 2020 last 8 games 0g, 0a, -9 I thought he had a really good game @PIT back 2 weeks ago, then he disappeared. He's now on pace for <60 points this season. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dudacek Posted March 10, 2020 Report Share Posted March 10, 2020 15 minutes ago, pi2000 said: last 8 games 0g, 0a, -9 I thought he had a really good game @PIT back 2 weeks ago, then he disappeared. He's now on pace for <60 points this season. I thought he was good yesterday, but most of this stretch he has not been. You should be happy. He's inching closer to a $6 million cap hit with every scoreless game. Here's something that hasn't been tossed around much: does Reinhart even want a long-term deal? Maybe he has no desire to stay in Buffalo longer than he has to. He's really not talked about his long-term plans at all, to the best of my knowledge. Some of you seem to think he's just putting in time. There's an argument to be made that he is is best off signing a short-term deal or taking whatever an arbitrator awards this summer — setting himself up for a situation like what happened to his buddy Evander two years from now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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