Reinhart, sign him or trade him?

[Zamboni]

Most fans, once they see (if they don’t see they’ll have a different opinion) the peers of Reinhart. See what they are getting paid. Understand the cap will go up. 
7.2 - 8.0 is absolutely fair. Anything less would be awesome! All the shortsighted noise is just that. Noise. Noise in which it’s impossible to change a fans mind. I call it “Stuck in cement even with a jackhammer, sledgehammer and dynamite close by”.

Edited January 24, 2020 by Zamboni

[PerreaultForever]

One added thing on the Toffoli vs. Reinhart being status quo. I wouldn't play him with Jack. I'd trade Sam for somebody with grit (perhaps plus picks/prospects depends who it is), top lines would be:

Olofsson-Jack-grit/tenacity guy

Skinner-Johanson-Tofolli with Cozens taking over from Johanson in another year.

In no way is that status quo.

[GASabresIUFAN]

8 hours ago, Broken Ankles said:

Not sure this is the best case scenario.  Based on Mitts play in Rocha-cha, and what we saw from Thompson last year I'm not sure this is even the most probable case.  There is a lot of cap space and pieces to be moved to acquire a true 2C or 2RW.   We need to "BE BETTER".

From a cap and youth standpoint this is the best case.  Otherwise you’ll be filling those positions with more expensive and older talent from outside the organization.

Because of Mitts’s and Thompson’s slower development we may be able to get them at cheaper prices longer.

[Thorny]

21 minutes ago, Weave said:

Signing Toffoli and moving Sam gets you status quo.  JBott needs to find a way to add, not shuffle the cards.

Depends on what "now" players we'd get for Sam, I guess. Sam is significantly better than Toffoli right now. 

[Zamboni]

1 minute ago, Thorny said:

Depends on what "now" players we'd get for Sam, I guess. Sam is significantly better than Toffoli right now. 

Doesn’t matter. Toffoli has what one would call “jam”. That scores more points in the sport of hockey than ... um ... points. 

[dudacek]

41 minutes ago, PerreaultForever said:

One added thing on the Toffoli vs. Reinhart being status quo. I wouldn't play him with Jack. I'd trade Sam for somebody with grit (perhaps plus picks/prospects depends who it is), top lines would be:

Olofsson-Jack-grit/tenacity guy

Skinner-Johanson-Tofolli with Cozens taking over from Johanson in another year.

In no way is that status quo.

Curious why anyone would think Toffoli would be an upgrade over Reinhart.

 

They play the same position and the same role with good linemates and are approximately the same size. They are both durable, Sam's missed just 6 games since he entered the league, Tyler just 19 over the same period. Sam has just started his prime and his arrow has pointed up four straight years, Tyler is reaching the end of his and the arrow has been trending down.Tyler's not faster than Sam, nor is he that abrasive. And he's certainly not better at generating offence.

 

Since Sam entered the league in 2015:

Toffoli 96/104/200

Reinhart 104/142/246

 

Over the past two seasons, in exactly the same number of games it's not even close:

Toffoli: 25/36/61

Reinhart: 39/67/106

 

You're right about one thing, Toffoli for Reinhart ain't status quo.

 

 

Edited January 24, 2020 by dudacek

[LGR4GM]

Wait we're now arguing signing Toffoli and just trading Reinhart for grit?

...

Done. 

[Thorny]

Just sign Toffoli and keep Reinhart FFS. We need to ADD at least one true top 6 guy, nm jettisoning one. I don't even know if TT qualifies as a true top 6 guy at this point, but it would be better than nothing. 

[Broken Ankles]

47 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

From a cap and youth standpoint this is the best case.  Otherwise you’ll be filling those positions with more expensive and older talent from outside the organization.

Because of Mitts’s and Thompson’s slower development we may be able to get them at cheaper prices longer.

If they plan on being in the playoffs next year, then two of the top Six Forward positions will be older, expensive and from another organization (whether it be by trade or UFA).  I expect this to be the plan this summer.  

[PerreaultForever]

30 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Curious why anyone would think Toffoli would be an upgrade over Reinhart.

 

They play the same position and the same role with good linemates and are approximately the same size. They are both durable, Sam's missed just 6 games since he entered the league, Tyler just 19 over the same period. Sam has just started his prime and his arrow has pointed up four straight years, Tyler is reaching the end of his and the arrow has been trending down.Tyler's not faster than Sam, nor is he that abrasive. And he's certainly not better at generating offence.

 

Since Sam entered the league in 2015:

Toffoli 96/104/200

Reinhart 104/142/246

 

Over the past two seasons, in exactly the same number of games it's not even close:

Toffoli: 25/36/61

Reinhart: 39/67/106

 

You're right about one thing, Toffoli for Reinhart ain't status quo.

 

 

How many times do you want me to say it's not just about points. Tofolli is different to Reinhart and those lines I mentioned would be more complete as units. You're also ignoring that there is another piece added for Reinhart along with the FA signing, so it's not simply Toffoli for Reinhart. Please don't twist the narrative to suit your argument.

If you pay the money to Sam you are still missing a piece in trying to create two top lines. 

 

[dudacek]

2 minutes ago, PerreaultForever said:

How many times do you want me to say it's not just about points. Tofolli is different to Reinhart and those lines I mentioned would be more complete as units. You're also ignoring that there is another piece added for Reinhart along with the FA signing, so it's not simply Toffoli for Reinhart. Please don't twist the narrative to suit your argument.

If you pay the money to Sam you are still missing a piece in trying to create two top lines. 

 

Sorry, I wasn't trying to debate your plan with that post, more just expounding, like you were, on Weave's idea that Reinhart for Toffoli was status quo.

Your plan could work if you get the right pieces for Reinhart and didn't overpay Toffoli.

[Zamboni]

Yep.

IF we can get good pieces back

IF those pieces are productive and good teammates 

IF those pieces want to stay with Buffalo

IF we can sign those pieces for a fair cap hit

it would be a great plan ... 

 

Or just keep Reinhart because we know what we know....

Edited January 24, 2020 by Zamboni

[Curt]

2 hours ago, Curt said:

I would be interested in discussing a couple ideas that you expressed here.

1) In what ways do you think Kassian opens up space for McDavid?  If anything, I would think it’s the other way around, with McDavid opening up space for his teammates.

The question is, how does a big body open up ice/create space for his teammates?

2)  Mid-range free agents who have not peaked yet signing good value contracts.  I don’t think this player exists to be signed.

Could you give any examples or elaborate on the type of guys you have in mind?

3) I think the Nylander contract is a good contract.  He is a very good play driver/puck carrier for them.  That ability helps Matthews specifically a great deal.  He is a very good player, if maybe not your personal favorite style of player.

At the same time, I agree that Toronto has a disproportionate amount of money tied up in those 4 forwards, and it does impede their ability to improve their defense.  However, that doesn’t mean that Nylander’s contract is bad.

Also, you are concerned about Buffalo falling into the same situation, but I don’t see that as likely.  Toronto has $40.5M invested in 4 forwards.  Even if Buffalo signed Reinhart and Olofsson to $7.5 and $6 long term deals, respectively, they would have $32.5 invested in their top 4 forwards.  A far cry from Toronto’s situation, and pretty much in line with many teams around the league.

 

2 hours ago, PerreaultForever said:

It's too early to pinpoint what guys might still be available. Or more importantly who might want to make trades for cap reasons. I also have no idea who'd actually come to Buffalo for reasonable money. If I had my way I'd sign Toffoli and trade Reinhart but I honestly don't think we can get any big name FAs to be interested in being here unless we grossly overpay them and I wouldn't do that.Having said that it doesn't mean I'd overpay Reinhart instead.  I think we'd be further ahead to add grit, make us a more desirable location to come to (by winning more and having a better team oriented culture - how about a Buffalo Stampede a la storm surge? something/anything to change things.) and have Cozens added sooner than later. 

The cap becomes a problem when you have to pay Dahlin and Cozens and ? whoever else has made us good in a few years while you already have so much locked into a guy like Sam. If no one develops into a big money star it won't matter anyway, but long term no trade type deals will kill us. 

Was this in response to me?  If so, (I think it is) it doesn’t really address the questions that I raised.

I’m trying to get an idea of your view on how this team should be constructed going forward and how it can be accomplished.  I’m trying to flesh things out a bit.

[PerreaultForever]

54 minutes ago, Curt said:

I’m trying to get an idea of your view on how this team should be constructed going forward and how it can be accomplished.  I’m trying to flesh things out a bit.

Ok, so trade Reinhart sign Tofolli as a FA. Either bring the grit player/power forward back in the Reinhart deal or another way/trade.

Olofsson-Eichel-Grit

Skinner-Johanson/then Cozens- Tofolli

Third line, a checking line built around Asplund. Maybe Pekar, Girgensens depends how fast you can go/develop.

Fourth line, a tougher checking line. Lazar can start there but the bottom of the roster has to be improved. Maybe Larsson, stuck with Okposo for now. Hard to say.

If Mitts develops we can have a third scoring line maybe but that's down the road.

I also want set D pairings built around a skill guy and a tougher stay at home guy like Boston does with Carlo/Krug and Chara/McAvoy.

Risto/Montour

?/Jokiharju

Dahlin/?

I'm not sure the bodies we have now fit the bill but whoever is best for now at clearing the front of the net.

Goal Ullmark and the Finnish kid eventually. Might need a temporary backup? Not sure, maybe Johansson can be that guy.

That's the way I'd structure it and fill the holes accordingly when they can be filled. Draft and add FAs accordingly.

 

[PerreaultForever]

7 hours ago, Zamboni said:

 
7.2 - 8.0 is absolutely fair.

I just don't get this thinking. Better players are signed for less. Examples:

Connor  7.145

Point 6.75

Tkachuk 7

Boeser 5.875

Konecny 5.5

You think Sam Reinhart is better than any of them? I certainly don't. 8 mil for Sam is insane. 

[Curt]

3 hours ago, PerreaultForever said:

I just don't get this thinking. Better players are signed for less. Examples:

Connor  7.145

Point 6.75

Tkachuk 7

Boeser 5.875

Konecny 5.5

You think Sam Reinhart is better than any of them? I certainly don't. 8 mil for Sam is insane. 

One thing to take into consideration here is that each of those players signed that contract coming off of their ELC, whereas Reinhart signed that 2 year bridge deal.  That means that their long term contracts covered more RFA years and fewer UFA years than a long term contract for Reinhart would.  That makes a difference.  It’s going to increase Reinhart’s salary compared to those guys.

Also, Konecny’s track record of production pre contract just does not compare to Reinhart’s.  Reinhart will have 3 seasons where he outproduced Konecny’s career high in points.  I know you don’t care about that in your player evaluation, but it’s a major factor in contract negotiations and has a major impact on what that dollar number will be.  I only bring it up because you keep using Konecny as a comparison.

[Zamboni]

6 hours ago, PerreaultForever said:

I just don't get this thinking. Better players are signed for less. Examples:

Connor  7.145

Point 6.75

Tkachuk 7

Boeser 5.875

Konecny 5.5

You think Sam Reinhart is better than any of them? I certainly don't. 8 mil for Sam is insane. 

That is thinking in a vacuum. Without context. Without consideration for timing or the future. When it comes to  evaluating Reinhart in the past, present, and future,, you’ve already proven to the board, you can’t. Mosts talking points you or Pi think you’re making gets refuted or disproven. The fact that you think it’s insane ... is insane. 
 

Oh, and the NHL is no longer trending in the direction of “checking line” “heavier checking line”. Most successful coaches haven’t thought that way or GM’s building that way since Boston won the cup in 2011. So you may want to try again with your fantasy team build.

Edited January 24, 2020 by Zamboni

[PerreaultForever]

12 hours ago, Curt said:

One thing to take into consideration here is that each of those players signed that contract coming off of their ELC, whereas Reinhart signed that 2 year bridge deal.  That means that their long term contracts covered more RFA years and fewer UFA years than a long term contract for Reinhart would.  That makes a difference.  It’s going to increase Reinhart’s salary compared to those guys.

Also, Konecny’s track record of production pre contract just does not compare to Reinhart’s.  Reinhart will have 3 seasons where he outproduced Konecny’s career high in points.  I know you don’t care about that in your player evaluation, but it’s a major factor in contract negotiations and has a major impact on what that dollar number will be.  I only bring it up because you keep using Konecny as a comparison.

Connor is signed for 7 years. There are other examples, this was just a few of guys who are clearly better than Sam and yet you want him to get more. No way should that happen.

As for Konecny, ya I keep mentioning him. I really like everything about him as a player. He is everything I wish Sam was but isn't. 

10 hours ago, Zamboni said:

That is thinking in a vacuum. Without context. Without consideration for timing or the future. When it comes to  evaluating Reinhart in the past, present, and future,, you’ve already proven to the board, you can’t. Mosts talking points you or Pi think you’re making gets refuted or disproven. The fact that you think it’s insane ... is insane. 
 

Oh, and the NHL is no longer trending in the direction of “checking line” “heavier checking line”. Most successful coaches haven’t thought that way or GM’s building that way since Boston won the cup in 2011. So you may want to try again with your fantasy team build.

"The board" isn't an entity and hasn't "proven" anything. You just have your opinions like we have ours. I'm fine to disagree and agree to disagree. You cannot force your view on me(or him, or others) and your opinions are not facts any more than mine are. As I said before, we value different things.

As for the checking line comment, not true really. Call them what you want, but in a cap era you simply can't have 4 lines filled with top scoring players. You have a few stars you need to fill the line up with defensively responsible players, energy guys, penalty killers, whatever you like, but you have to have good ones so you can rest the top guys. 

Best free agent signing of last year was Acciari by Florida. That's what we need. I'm sure you disagree.

[GASabresIUFAN]

Reinhart (2014) 380gp 104g 142a 246pts

Konecny (2015) 280gp 76g 91a 167pts

lets dump Samson for the lesser player in Konecny.  That makes sense.

[Curt]

38 minutes ago, PerreaultForever said:

Connor is signed for 7 years. There are other examples, this was just a few of guys who are clearly better than Sam and yet you want him to get more. No way should that happen.

I think I’m missing the relevance of this.  If Reinhart also signed a 7 year deal, those 7 years would include more UFA years, which are generally more expensive.  That was my only point.

[Zamboni]

51 minutes ago, PerreaultForever said:

 

"The board" isn't an entity and hasn't "proven" anything.

*** YES, sorry I know you hate to admit when you’re wrong, but dude, your “supposed facts” regarding Reinhart are wrong. Your opinion is just that. An opinion, as poorly constructed as it may be, it’s just an opinion. The constant moving of goalposts is obvious to anyone following along ***

You just have your opinions like we have ours. I'm fine to disagree and agree to disagree. You cannot force your view on me(or him, or others) and your opinions are not facts any more than mine are. As I said before, we value different things. 
 

*** WHAT Reinharts stats are, is not opinion. Who his peers are (comparisons) to evaluate with some level of accuracy is not opinion. It’s not opinion that agents compare peers when negotiating contracts for their client. That in fact determines their worth more times than not. Sorry, that’s simply not an opinion. I would think you would know this ***

As for the checking line comment, not true really. Call them what you want, but in a cap era you simply can't have 4 lines filled with top scoring players. You have a few stars you need to fill the line up with defensively responsible players, energy guys, penalty killers, whatever you like, but you have to have good ones so you can rest the top guys. 
 

*** I USED your words. Your words are checking line and heavier checking line. Sorry to disappoint you, but coaches and GM’s don’t think that way anymore. They just don’t. No, really. They don’t. *** 

Best free agent signing of last year was Acciari by Florida. That's what we need. I'm sure you disagree.

*** ANOTHER opinion trying hard to come across as fact. *** 

And yes ... 7.2 - 8 mil. is not insane. When all things (not in a convenient vacuum) are considered. As much as you or others click your heals and fold your arms and wish it wasn’t true. Reinhart will ask for and receive that. From the Sabres or someone else. I certainly hope it’s lower of course. And that last sentence I would think you could agree with. 
 

^ that ... that right there ... is an opinion. Based on facts of his peers and what they have received. Not wishful thinking 

Edited January 25, 2020 by Zamboni

[PerreaultForever]

5 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Reinhart (2014) 380gp 104g 142a 246pts

Konecny (2015) 280gp 76g 91a 167pts

lets dump Samson for the lesser player in Konecny.  That makes sense.

Yes, let's make that trade. I'll throw in E-Rod as a free bonus. Konecny is a much much much much better player than Sam.

4 hours ago, Curt said:

I think I’m missing the relevance of this.  If Reinhart also signed a 7 year deal, those 7 years would include more UFA years, which are generally more expensive.  That was my only point.

The relevance is Connor, a better player than Sam, is signed for substantial term for less money than many Sam fans here want to pay Reinhart. My position is those type of over payments will lead to cap problems (assuming we develop more real talent and get decent/good). 

[Curt]

7 hours ago, PerreaultForever said:

Yes, let's make that trade. I'll throw in E-Rod as a free bonus. Konecny is a much much much much better player than Sam.

The relevance is Connor, a better player than Sam, is signed for substantial term for less money than many Sam fans here want to pay Reinhart. My position is those type of over payments will lead to cap problems (assuming we develop more real talent and get decent/good). 

Ok, that is a completely valid opinion.  But you are replying to me, while totally ignoring what I’m saying.  You didn’t even acknowledge that I said anything about UFA vs RFA years, or about the difference in production between Konecny and Reinhart pre contract.

You are not really having a conversation. You are replying without responding to what I said.  It’s confusing.

I haven’t even told you that you are wrong or that I disagree, or anything.  I’m trying to have a conversation here about different aspects of contracts.

[LGR4GM]

9 hours ago, PerreaultForever said:

Yes, let's make that trade. I'll throw in E-Rod as a free bonus. Konecny is a much much much much better player than Sam.

Is this opinion or fact?

[GASabresIUFAN]

7 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

Is this opinion or fact?

While I disagree with @PerreaultForever ‘s opinion on Reinhart or that Konecny is a better player,  Konecny is having a breakout year and has very good metrics.  That said he plays zero PK minutes and this is his first season where he is even close to Reinhart’s production.  

Honestly he is a step down from Reinhart, but his growth as a player makes it closer then I originally thought.