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Sobotka and the 2nd line


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15 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Let me get this straight, according to this chart, Sobotka has been among the very best in the league so far defensively?

As in better than 90 % of the players in the NHL?

and one of the worst offensively, yes. 

He's on a line with the best Sabres goal scorer. He should be able to play some sort of offense. 

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For clarity, Sobotka is bad, he isn’t a player you want on the 2nd line.

However, that chart does not support that he is a terrible hockey player (poor offensively perhaps), and the chart is almost meaningless because of the small sample size.  It also shows that Okposo is far and away the best forward so far this season.

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Some way too early TRpm numbers.... 

Risto near the bottom again ?, trade him already

Can Dahlin get more minutes?

Vesey, Mittlestadt and Okposo doing well at even strength.

Trade Eichel immediately! haha.    Seriously tho, his line needs to be better defensively at even strength.    

That said, it's way way way early to take anything away from these numbers.    One good game could put Eichel at the top of the list.   

After about 15-20 games we'll have a better idea of who is helping or hurting the team at even strength.

p2000@sfo-lvswy:~$ ./trpm_2019.py BUF
BUF Colin Miller             3.14
BUF Rasmus Dahlin            3.06
BUF Casey Mittelstadt        1.47
BUF Jimmy Vesey              1.37
BUF Kyle Okposo              0.51
BUF Conor Sheary             0.44
BUF Zemgus Girgensons        0.34
BUF Johan Larsson            0.29
BUF Vladimir Sobotka         0.26
BUF Marcus Johansson         0.22
BUF Jeff Skinner             0.16
BUF Sam Reinhart            -0.02
BUF Marco Scandella         -0.95
BUF Jake McCabe             -1.07
BUF Rasmus Ristolainen      -1.20
BUF Henri Jokiharju         -1.86
BUF Victor Olofsson         -1.95
BUF Jack Eichel             -2.08

 

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3 minutes ago, rakish said:

I was serious pi, any theories on why Tierny's numbers different? to me they are visuallizing the same idea

Does Tierney have any plain old GF/GA plots? That's what pi's thing is, with Sean's typical adjustments for ice time, team etc. 

I only ever see Tierney with shot-attempt-based-metrics or WAR/GAR

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8 minutes ago, Randall Flagg said:

Does Tierney have any plain old GF/GA plots? That's what pi's thing is, with Sean's typical adjustments for ice time, team etc. 

I only ever see Tierney with shot-attempt-based-metrics or WAR/GAR

Ah, so xGF is not something like delta goals for, it's something shot based?

That's why no one thought I was being really brilliant, as Spinal Tap says, there's such a fine line between genius and stupid.

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3 hours ago, Curt said:

For clarity, Sobotka is bad, he isn’t a player you want on the 2nd line.

However, that chart does not support that he is a terrible hockey player (poor offensively perhaps), and the chart is almost meaningless because of the small sample size.  It also shows that Okposo is far and away the best forward so far this season.

I’d like someone to demonstrate why Okposo is not the best forward so far this season.

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4 minutes ago, dudacek said:

I’d like someone to demonstrate why Okposo is not the best forward so far this season.

While I don't think he's our best forward this season, he has graciously accepted his role and is performing it incredibly well. If only "the Larry line" wasn't so easy to say and type, it could well be named after Kyle instead

1 hour ago, rakish said:

Ah, so xGF is not something like delta goals for, it's something shot based?

That's why no one thought I was being really brilliant, as Spinal Tap says, there's such a fine line between genius and stupid.

Correct, shots/shot attempts weighted by something like six different parameters (location, type etc)

Edited by Randall Flagg
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I added some stuff to my script to try and explain it better....

"exp+/-" is what the player's +/- should be based on the team's even strength goal differential, the % of minutes played by the player, and the number of games they've played    eg, if the team has a +4 even strength goal differential in a game, and the player played 25% of the game... their exp+/- would be +1.

"%min" is average percentage of minutes played per game... atoi/60.

Looking at Sam Reinhart, he's played just about 1/3 of all minutes... the team has played 3 games, and the team averages a +1 ES goal diff per game.  So Samson's expected +/- is +1.02 (The .02 is because he's played 34.1% of minutes instead of 33.3%), his actual +/- is +1.    So his TRpm is -0.02.     

 

pi2000@sfo-lvswy:~$ ./trpm_2019_min.py BUF
===========================================================
BUF even strength goal differential through 3 games = 3
BUF average even strength goal differential per game = 1.0
===========================================================
Team  Player                 TRpm    GP   +/-  exp+/-  %min
BUF Colin Miller             3.14    3     4    0.86   28.8
BUF Rasmus Dahlin            3.06    3     4    0.94   31.4
BUF Casey Mittelstadt        1.47    3     2    0.53   17.6
BUF Jimmy Vesey              1.37    3     2    0.63   21.0
BUF Kyle Okposo              0.51    3     1    0.49   16.5
BUF Conor Sheary             0.44    3     1    0.56   18.5
BUF Zemgus Girgensons        0.34    3     1    0.66   21.9
BUF Johan Larsson            0.29    3     1    0.71   23.6
BUF Vladimir Sobotka         0.26    3     1    0.74   24.7
BUF Marcus Johansson         0.22    3     1    0.78   25.9
BUF Jeff Skinner             0.16    3     1    0.84   28.2
BUF Sam Reinhart            -0.02    3     1    1.02   34.1
BUF Marco Scandella         -0.95    3     0    0.95   31.6
BUF Jake McCabe             -1.07    3     0    1.07   35.8
BUF Rasmus Ristolainen      -1.20    3     0    1.20   40.0
BUF Henri Jokiharju         -1.86    3    -1    0.86   28.6
BUF Victor Olofsson         -1.95    3    -1    0.95   31.8
BUF Jack Eichel             -2.08    3    -1    1.07   35.8
===========================================================

 

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1 hour ago, dudacek said:

I’d like someone to demonstrate why Okposo is not the best forward so far this season.

In terms of tilting the ice at 5-on-5, he has certainly been among the best, that whole line has.  We all know though that over the course of the season, that most likely will not keep up to this extent because Okposo is not in fact the best forward on the team.  That’s my point.  It’s a small sample size.  It’s not very predictive of how the rest of the season will unfold.

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7 hours ago, Randall Flagg said:

I would pay Sean Tierney and those guys money to not make a single chart until December starts

I honestly don't know why you hate them so much. Sure, they don't have predictive value for awhile, but they still have descriptive value...which puts them on par with every other stat that people use without you crushing them. 

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2 hours ago, TrueBlueGED said:

I honestly don't know why you hate them so much. Sure, they don't have predictive value for awhile, but they still have descriptive value...which puts them on par with every other stat that people use without you crushing them. 

To me, that's all stats are, a descriptive value of what my eyes and brain just witnessed and processed.

A numerical form of communication that requires less space on paper than in word format to describe a game. It's also just as opinionated as any author of the printed form of communication.

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7 hours ago, Randall Flagg said:

While I don't think he's our best forward this season, he has graciously accepted his role and is performing it incredibly well. If only "the Larry line" wasn't so easy to say and type, it could well be named after Kyle instead

Correct, shots/shot attempts weighted by something like six different parameters (location, type etc)

Nah, unless there is a winger that truly defines the line (e.g. the Ovie line), they always go by the center.

The 2nd line is the Johansson line even though Skinner will get his 32 there.

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Vlad has played with strong effort and he's added to the faceoff dot and made some nice defensive plays too. The plays that make you want him out of the top six in the offensive zone are certainly still there,  rather comically highlighted by the fact that his linemates each have four points to his zero, which is as much luck as it is skill difference. But he's busting a sweat that I haven't seen from him since early last season, during a time that made earned him a "C" on my first third of the season report card. If Krueger can keep this team afloat for longer than they stayed relevant last season, and we get this Vlad the rest of the way, there will be a lot less complaining from ME about him (sorta like how in 17-18 I went after KO every other post but have since mostly only had positive things to say about him). Sabrespace rejoices

That said, just like my sentiment before the season, if we can find a way to get one more top six player into this organization, I will begin to not only be excited/hopeful for the 'p' word like I am now, but will believe/expect it to happen. Which would be bananas because I'm a negative nancy by temperament 

Some people might have the philosophy that a strong offensive start might mean we should sit pat in that search, but man this start has made me more eager for it. Chucking Ehlers/Zucker/Toffoli/whoever (just throwing names out, if you don't like one of those guys that's fine) into this lineup too?! How could you not want that? We literally have more than one NHL-caliber defensemen that simply aren't playing in this current top six that is doing just fine in wide-open October NHL hockey. I really hope something can materialize because it can effectively be a forward skill and depth boost at the expense of NOTHING we've seen to this point. And I'm always a little worried about Mojo's full-season availability. 

Buy into your team Jason they deserve it (and did last year too)

 

Edited by Randall Flagg
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