Final Roster Cuts

[nfreeman]

30 minutes ago, ... said:

Doesn't winning solve this?

I suppose enough winning could, but they are so far away from that stage that, like most teams, they can’t ignore the “great people right” factor.  

27 minutes ago, Randall Flagg said:

Organizations that consistently shoot themselves in the foot with roster moves that prevent them from icing the best possible teams at their disposal, making these roster moves with motivations outside of this Belichickean goal, are organizations that go long stretches of time winning fewer hockey games than most others. 

 

Fair enough, but we are talking about starting the season with #12 - #13 forward X instead of  #12 - #13 forward Y.  There are about a million mistakes teams can make, and that this team has made, that are bigger contributors to the bad outcome.  

[Randall Flagg]

Just now, nfreeman said:

I suppose enough winning could, but they are so far away from that stage that, like most teams, they can’t ignore the “great people right” factor.  

Fair enough, but we are talking about starting the season with #12 - #13 forward X instead of  #12 - #13 forward Y.  There are about a million mistakes teams can make, and that this team has made, that are bigger contributors to the bad outcome.  

We have a player who is essentially the biggest offensive black hole in the league over two seasons running, for reasons well documented by many statistical analyses that are completely independent of each other, and plainly evident in film, reasons which also plague the team as a collective more than any other facet of hockey relative to the other teams in the league, and not only was he allowed back to training camp, 

he's now practicing on our second line with the 9 million dollar goal scorer who got that money by playing with a guy whose funneling of pucks to the area where Skinner scores rivals any other player in the league 

I honestly don't have many words for if that happens in a regular season game. It would be unfathomable, given the context of last season, and would likely irredeemably shift my view of Botterill the rest of the way that it's been slowly heading the past two and a half years. Even if the team starts out hot, which would surely be due to other reasons, I wouldn't be able to trust a group of people that decide that's reasonable. 

Even if you argue he earned the look from the preseason, in a 2/3rds offensive role on the top line the guy had zero production and the same 40/60 expected goal split he always had last year. I hate using stats like that in sample sizes so small, but coming off of what last season was for Vlad, you'd think you'd need to see real evidence of tangible improvement in those areas to let it override 700 day trend. At least when we put Derek Grant in meaningful spots for half a year despite literally zero goals, he had actually PRODUCED in that preseason.
 

[OhMyDahlin]

On 9/29/2019 at 10:33 AM, bob_sauve28 said:

Injuries 

 

I wonder if Mittelstadt goes to Rochester 

?

[OhMyDahlin]

1 hour ago, triumph_communes said:

What appears to be the starting line-up:

 

Oloffson-Eichel-Reinhart

Skinner-Johansson-Sobotka

Vesey-Mittelstadt-Sheary

Girgensons-Larsson-Rodrigues

Okposo

 

Dahlin-Miller

McCabe-Ristolainen

Scandella-Jokiharju

Glimour

 

 

IR:  Montour will push out Jokiharju, Gilmour stays.  Bogosian.... we'll see.  Pilut starts in the AHL, but I think he comes up within a month and pushes out Scandella.  A Ristolainen trade resolves any jams, though Jokiharju appears to benefit from some AHL time and can pass through waivers unlike anyone else.

Only waiver wire pick-up I could foresee is Sprong-- given Botterill's history with the kid, and our pretty bad RW depth.  May be the move that kicks Mittelstadt into the AHL for some time.  Not really sure Rodrigues' spot is safe at all with that awful pre-season, though I'd much rather see the Okposo demotion be what happens.

 

Not really excited by 2nd line Sobotka, nor Reinhart with Eichel, but I'll give Krueger benefit of the doubt for a little while at least.  Glad Oloffson is getting the chance, and Vesey makes 3LW somewhat solid, even if he only shows up every few games.  Each line has playmakers, shooters, and some size.  Much better wingers than Mittelstadt had last year.  If Johansson looks like he did in pre-season at 2C for the rest of the season, I feel really good about the team this year.  I thought Thompson earned a spot over every other RW not named Reinhart personally, but he's also the only one who can pass through waivers so maybe that's mostly what it is.  Some extra chances for those other RWs to show whether they've got any gas left or not.

 

 

This whole concept is hilarious. He's not going to the AHL. Everyone might as well drop that now. It's just not happening.

And I can't see why claiming a winger would make Buffalo want to demote a 20 year old center.

This is total lunacy. (So is being upset about Reinhart playing with Eichel. Lol.)

Edited September 30, 2019 by OhMyDahlin

[OhMyDahlin]

33 minutes ago, Drunkard said:

What happens when playing with Sobotka causes Skinner to lose his love for the game?

He'll lose it real quickly when he realized he made a massive mistake by re-signing with the Sabres, thinking he was going to be playing with Jack Eichel.

This coach is already off to an awful start.

[triumph_communes]

8 minutes ago, OhMyDahlin said:

This whole concept is hilarious. He's not going to the AHL. Everyone might as well drop that now. It's just not happening.

And I can't see why claiming a winger would make Buffalo want to demote a 20 year old center.

This is total lunacy. (So is being upset about Reinhart playing with Eichel. Lol.)

Maybe you should stop with the superlatives and recognize that 1) Krueger has mentioned Mittelstadt's spot is in hot water, 2) Rodrigues is on the bubble right now and an extra RW could push Rodrigues back to center, as Rodrigues would immediately be claimed on waivers and wouldn't be worth losing just to trial Sprong and 3) the fact that Reinhart's output is diminished overall when paired with Eichel, who made Pominville make top-10 fancy stat charts last season.  Eichel doesn't need a Reinhart to excel, but the other lines sure could use a Reinhart.

[mjd1001]

I'm not sure what the final turnover is going to be come opening night...but I was thinking about the 'roster surgery' expectation.  Is that new guys on the roster? Is that how much different the team will look?

So, here is a list of the top players on the team in total ice time from last year, ranked from highest down...

Risto, Dahlin, Eichel, Reinhart, Skinner, Bogosian, Rodrigues, Sheary, McCabe, Scandella, Okposo, Larsen, Mittelstadt, Girgensons, Sobotka, POMINVILLE

You have to go all the way down to #16 in total ice time on the Sabres to get to Pominville. The top 15 guys are all still likely on the roster opening night.

I know you can't trade without a partner..etc, etc....but I was hoping for more change than this, as I am sure many others were also.

[Taro T]

27 minutes ago, OhMyDahlin said:

This whole concept is hilarious. He's not going to the AHL. Everyone might as well drop that now. It's just not happening.

And I can't see why claiming a winger would make Buffalo want to demote a 20 year old center.

This is total lunacy. (So is being upset about Reinhart playing with Eichel. Lol.)

Mittelstadt could get demoted, but my guess is that it would happen in November at the earliest unless something truly egregious happens.

And wouldn't put money on it happening at all.

[LGR4GM]

51 minutes ago, Randall Flagg said:

We have a player who is essentially the biggest offensive black hole in the league over two seasons running, for reasons well documented by many statistical analyses that are completely independent of each other, and plainly evident in film, reasons which also plague the team as a collective more than any other facet of hockey relative to the other teams in the league, and not only was he allowed back to training camp, 

he's now practicing on our second line with the 9 million dollar goal scorer who got that money by playing with a guy whose funneling of pucks to the area where Skinner scores rivals any other player in the league 

I honestly don't have many words for if that happens in a regular season game. It would be unfathomable, given the context of last season, and would likely irredeemably shift my view of Botterill the rest of the way that it's been slowly heading the past two and a half years. Even if the team starts out hot, which would surely be due to other reasons, I wouldn't be able to trust a group of people that decide that's reasonable. 

Even if you argue he earned the look from the preseason, in a 2/3rds offensive role on the top line the guy had zero production and the same 40/60 expected goal split he always had last year. I hate using stats like that in sample sizes so small, but coming off of what last season was for Vlad, you'd think you'd need to see real evidence of tangible improvement in those areas to let it override 700 day trend. At least when we put Derek Grant in meaningful spots for half a year despite literally zero goals, he had actually PRODUCED in that preseason.
 

Exactly. It's so incredibly bad that my thinking on Krueger and botterill will be fundamentally shifted if it is applied. It is a obvious stupid mistake to allow Sobotka anywhere near Skinner.

[MODO Hockey]

I have no clue either why he is setting up Skinner with this horrible Sobotka

 

What does Freddy believe that we dont? Or are they hoping to raise Sobotkas value by playing him with Skinner to make a trade before deadline?

I am so confused 

[kas23]

4 hours ago, darksabre said:

I mean, he's an Assistant Captain, right? That probably counts for something in the room. I think a "players coach" like Krueger might see some value in letting Kyle have 5-6 games of regular season before making the final call.

Do you mean playing 5-6 games all of 19-20 season? Sounds good to me. 

[Scottysabres]

Opener is Thursday, so I assume there is time for a trade before then, although admittedly I don't see it happening.

If this is the line up they go with, then so be it. I hope they all over achieve.

[dudacek]

Daniel Sprong is 22 has 28 career NHL points, has been cast aside by two organizations, and just got waived by the worst offence in the NHL.

How anyone could entertain the idea he represents an upgrade on Casey is beyond me.

[PASabreFan]

Mouse potatoes that are smarter than RaKru. Now I've seen it all.

[That Aud Smell]

24 minutes ago, PASabreFan said:

Mouse potatoes that are smarter than RaKru. Now I've seen it all.

[Zamboni]

It will play out one way or the other ...

Sobotka will do well on a top 6 roll. It’s a different coach, approach, system and several new faces/team mates. I would love to see him suceeed.

Sobotka will look as bad or worse than last year after a few games and will quickly be demoted to the 3rd or 4th line. 

Even though it’s regular season, I know (sometimes I wonder if most fans know) that there will be line changes all the time. Depends on who’s clicking together, chemistry, on ice results, and effort. Most coaches who make it to the NHL level screw with lineups mid game all the time. I’m not worried about Sobotka in regards to where he ultimately plays the most.

Edited September 30, 2019 by Zamboni

[PerreaultForever]

6 hours ago, nfreeman said:

My 2 cents:

- Nelson is JAG who is an acceptable depth player in case of injury but not good enough to dress every night.  His failure to jump in when Eichel got cheap-shotted last year continues to be completely unacceptable.  I wouldn't mind keeping him in Rochester in case of emergency, but I won't care if someone claims him. 

- Gilmour and Joker both have much higher upside than Nelson (and are also both really fast -- maybe the 2 fastest defensemen they have).  It will be good for Joker to have to compete with Gilmour for PT, and for not being the one to get sent down when Montour, Bogo or Pilut returns.

- I think there is a good chance that @dudacek is right about them keeping a spot open in order to claim someone from waivers. 

Yup. Glad to see Nelson gone. My own view (perhaps harsh) is he should not even have been in camp to reinforce the cultural message, but at least he's not on the roster.

I would send Joker down when Montour returns. Let him get top minutes down there and him and Pilut can compete for the future while leading in ice team there. Gilmour already is what he is and is servicable as the new #7 instead of Nelson.

I was hoping they would send Mitts down with Tage. Put those two together down there. Room them together, play them together, have them grow and develop chemistry (hopefully) together as a top AHL tandem. next year if not sooner they come up together as a 2nd or 3rd line duo.  

I'd maybe have kept Lazar for line 4 (unless you grab a waiver guy) and moved ERod into Mitts 3C spot for now. 

Really wanted to see Asplund surprise everyone and take Sobotka's spot. Thought he had some Swedish mojo going with Johanson but it is what it is. 

The plan is clearly balance to make us harder to check. I guess Sobodka is supposed to allow Skinner and Johanson to go full out offensively and cover for them when they are caught behind the play. Really not sure he's up for the task.

Kyle is going to get splinters, will ask to be traded, there will be no takers, and that'll be the end of that. Sorry Kyle, but you're really crap and terribly overpaid. Whatever.

Looking at the lineup I don't think it'll work, but I am hopeful that Dahlin takes leaps ahead and wows us and the rest of the league all season long and maybe..................

Edited September 30, 2019 by PerreaultForever

[GASabresIUFAN]

Can someone provide a quote by HCRK where he said Vlad will start the season with Skinner and Johansson? Where is the quote where HCRK said anything about opening night lines or pairings in general?

Just because he experimented with pairings and lines during the pre-season is really meaningless until we see those same lines and pairings in the regular season.

Edited September 30, 2019 by GASabresIUFAN

[triumph_communes]

Just now, GASabresIUFAN said:

Can someone provide a quote by HCRK where he said Vlad will start the season with Skinner and Johansson? Where is the quote where HCRK said anything about opening night lines or pairings in general?

He’s said they gelled. But he’s also said the lineup isn’t finished until Tuesday. Wait til that practice

[LGR4GM]

1 hour ago, dudacek said:

Daniel Sprong is 22 has 28 career NHL points, has been cast aside by two organizations, and just got waived by the worst offence in the NHL.

How anyone could entertain the idea he represents an upgrade on Casey is beyond me.

Being traded should not equate to being cast aside. 

Also Sprong would be a winger so not sure why Mitts is mentioned. I'd roll the dice on him. 

[dudacek]

1 minute ago, LGR4GM said:

Being traded should not equate to being cast aside. 

Also Sprong would be a winger so not sure why Mitts is mentioned. I'd roll the dice on him. 

High pick for another lottery ticket could qualify.

Being waived definitely should.

[LGR4GM]

Just now, dudacek said:

High pick for another lottery ticket could qualify.

Being waived definitely should.

As I said, being traded should not equate to being cast aside. Waived sure but not traded. 

[Randall Flagg]

6 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Can someone provide a quote by HCRK where he said Vlad will start the season with Skinner and Johansson? Where is the quote where HCRK said anything about opening night lines or pairings in general?

Just because he experimented with pairings and lines during the pre-season is really meaningless until we see those same lines and pairings in the regular season.

Right, and my post plainly said that my opinions will change if the current setup finds its way into the NHL regular season. 

It's still a WTF move given everything there is to know about Vlad Sobotka, but it won't be problematic until every shift matters, October 3rd.

[Taro T]

4 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

Being traded should not equate to being cast aside. 

Also Sprong would be a winger so not sure why Mitts is mentioned. I'd roll the dice on him. 

Pretty sure the thought process is Sprong takes over for Rodrigues who then takes over for Mittelstadt.  Not sure why that is the expectation.

[dudacek]

7 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

As I said, being traded should not equate to being cast aside. Waived sure but not traded. 

I understand, I just don’t fully agree.

Sometimes a trade is simply the price you pay to acquire someone you want. I wouldn’t say Guhle was cast aside.

But sometimes players get cast aside in a trade in the sense that you decided said player is not a key part of your core and you are going in another direction. I would say O’Reilly was cast aside.

Its guys like Alex Nylander where the “why” is little harder to read.