NHL Season Predictions

[Randall Flagg]

Now that the RFA situation has fizzled to a close, we more or less know what most of these teams are going to look like. There may be a Risto trade here, a Honka trade there, but other than that, most of the rosters are probably pretty set. So how do you think this season plays out? What teams will surprise, which ones will disappoint? I think I'm going to do a full-standings prediction with playoff results included, as well as the major awards. 

Atlantic Division
1.) Tampa Bay Lightning, ~110 points. Still the best roster in the NHL for my money.
2.) Boston Bruins, ~105 points. No major losses. 
3.) Toronto Maple Leafs, ~105 points. Their forwards got a little worse, but Barrie may prove worth it, considering Matthews or Tavares will still be on the ice for more than 2/3rds of the game.
4.) Florida Panthers, ~96 points. (WC1) Their forwards are incredibly dangerous, and Bobrovsky is a top tier goalie heading to a team that has been sunk by goaltending in recent years. Playoffs.
5.) Montreal Canadiens, ~90 points. Another year of development for Kotka and Poehling. Defense is a bit thinner than last year I think. Could make a wild card push. Rock solid fundamentals. 
6.) Buffalo Sabres, ~82 points. Offense and goaltending troubles, solid team defense.
7.) Detroit Red Wings, ~75 points. Still years to go for these guys, though they have to like what they're seeing from Larkin/AA/Bertuzzi/Mantha up front. May well be a nice forward core with Zadina and other high picks in the near future.
8.) Ottawa Senators, ~70 points. I don't think they're as much of a tire fire this year, but still not a good team.

Metro Division
1.) Washington Capitals, ~105 points. An elite regular season team, with another strong roster. 
2.) Columbus Blue Jackets, ~98 points. Hear me out. I love this team. Their defense may be the best in the league, and Dubois-Atkinson-Foligno-Anderson-Jenner surrounded by simple but effective forwards that know and fill their role will make this team a pain in the ass to play against every night. Korpisalo may be their undoing. This is my shot in the dark that could very well look incredibly stupid incredibly quickly. 
3.) Philadelphia Flyers, ~97 points. Rock solid group of forwards that is still growing via Patrick and Konecny, hopefully better defense (though I don't like Gudas for Braun, namely hoping for their young guys to jump up here) and I think Carter Hart is ready to be a good NHL goalie, the thing they likely needed the most. AV knows how to win in the regular season with vet rosters, too.
4.) Pittsburgh Penguins, ~96 points. (WC) Goofy roster, and I think they're still playing Jack Johnson and Gudbranson? So I don't like their defense, but this team will make the playoffs every year Sid and Geno are in their primes. 
5.) Carolina Hurricanes, ~90 points. Mrazek was terrible before Bales, and the Canes had the worst goaltending in the league over an extended period of time before the two met. Now Bales is gone, so I'm going to predict that it's their demise again. Solid roster though. 
6.) New Jersey Devils, ~86 points. PK Subban, Gusev, and Hughes have the potential to be a ridiculous boost of talent. They still have a scary defense and a weak goaltending situation, but if Hall stays healthy, there are pieces on this team that can carry them to a tier above where they were last year.
7.) New York Islanders, ~80 points. When I broke down some video of Islanders games, I came away wholly unimpressed, and I don't like their roster much. Pulock and Pelech are fun on the back end though. Can never discount Trotz, but this is definitely the worst total team Trotz has had to coach since Nashville finished low enough to select Jones.
8.) New York Rangers, ~75 points. Panarin is flashy, but Trouba is overrated and their defense and goaltending will again struggle. And their forwards behind the top four guys (who are awesome) are horrifying.

Central Division
1.) Colorado Avalanche, ~103 points. Girard and Makar were excellent in the playoffs, and bolster their defense group. Kadri was a 30 goal shutdown guy when he got to be Toronto's 2C before Tavares, and he'll return to that form. Dangerous team.
2.) Dallas Stars, ~101 points. I think Bishop has a Hart-caliber season coming up. And Pavelski will really help the one weak area of their roster, along with Hintz's continued development allowing Faksa to be again slotted properly as an effective defensive 3C. 
3.) St. Louis Blues, ~98 points. An unchanged roster, with loads of confidence, and few holes.
4.) Nashville Predators, ~95 points. (WC) Duchene will help these guys a lot come playoff time. They're in a pretty tough division so I think their point totals are lower than if they played elsewhere but this team can win playoff series.
5.) Chicago Blackhawks, ~88 points. Dangerous forwards, and a hopefully-still-mentally-healthy Lehner. Their team defense is problematic but they'll be able to outscore plenty of their problems.
6.) Minnesota Wild, ~83 points. Meh all around. Great team defense and a very hard time scoring.
7.) Winnipeg Jets, ~82 points. I think these guys have a major down year. Their roster is just ugly-looking outside of the list of top six forwards. And I'm not a huge believer in Hellebuyck. 

Pacific Division
1.) San Jose Sharks, ~100 points. Losing their captain hurts, but Hertl and Meier keep getting better. And they're already great. Goaltending is the weak link.
2.) VGK, ~ 98 points. I really like this roster, and though their defensive depth is concerning, it's not any more concerning than their entire roster was in 2017, and we saw how that went. They play outstanding team hockey and have the best winger in the game (hot take alert)
3.) Calgary Flames, ~91 points. I'm not a Rittich believer, and they plan on using Lucic. I really like their top 5 forwards and Giordano, but am not a huge fan after that. Still will make the playoffs easy in this division.
4.) Vancouver Canucks, ~89 points (WC). Pettersson is going to explode and drag an otherwise-mediocre roster, along with Horvat/Boeser, to the promised land. 
5.) Arizona Coyotes, ~85 points. A center or two short from being a fairly complete team, unfortunately, it's the 1C position. They played good hockey in 2019. Raanta is very good. 
6.) Anaheim Ducks, ~77 points. Meh. Bleh. Gibson is elite 
7.) Edmonton Oilers, ~75 points. McDavid can be the best player in the world again this season, but aside from he, Leon, and RNH, every position on their roster is woefully unprepared to face other NHL teams. 
8.) LA Kings, ~75 points. Could surprise, a lot of names I know nothing about. Usually when that happens, some of them turn out to be good. But I still don't like their team.

ECF/WCF: Tampa over Washington, and Colorado over Vegas.
Stanley cup: Tampa
Conn Smythe: Vasilevsky 
Hart: McDavid
Vezina: Bishop
Rocket: Ovechkin
Norris: Hedman
Art Ross: McDavid
Jack Adams: Torts
Calder: Olofsson

I know that nobody wants to spend the time to type that much, but we could at least get some trophy and playoff predictions in here.

 

Edited September 29, 2019 by Randall Flagg

[Thorny]

Agree with a lot of that. Maybe I"ll get around to making my own. 

One nitpick, I doubt McDavid takes the Hart if the Oilers finish with 75 points. 

- - - 

It's almost hard to not pick Tampa to win the cup. They were so much better than everyone else during the season last year. They could definitely choke in the playoffs again, but so could any other pick, probably even at a higher likelihood. 

Edited September 29, 2019 by Thorny

[steveoath]

Stanley cup: Avs

Conn Smythe: Rantanen

Hart: McKinnon

Vezina: vasilevskiy

Rocket: Kutcherov

Norris: Burns

Art Ross: Kutcherov

Jack Adams: Kreuger ?

Calder: Olofsson

[Hank]

Nashville over Tampa for the Cup

[mjd1001]

I think this year Pittsburgh takes a bigger fall than most.  96 points I guess is possible for them, but I really see this team being right around 90 and not making the playoffs.

I'll try to not form too much of an opinion on them based on the season opener vs the Sabres though.

Gutsy pick on putting Columbus so high.  Most other people have them a lot lower...I hope you are right though because for some reason I like that team.

I'm still waiting for Boston and San Jose to have they fall also. I know Boston has a good number of quality young guys, but at some point the likes of Marchand, Bergeron, Krejci, and Chara have to show major signs of being on the wrong side of 30 AND playing a ton of games over the past few years.

[Huckleberry]

I think the avalanch will win this year, I like how that team is build.

[Zamboni]

10 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

I think the avalanch will win this year, I like how that team is build.

Avalanche 

built

?? 

I would say they have a better chance than the Leafs.

[PerreaultForever]

I think New Jersey will be this year's surprise team and make the playoffs.

Dallas might be the team to watch out for but I see no reason to think St. Louis won't be right there at the end again. They have most of the team back and added Faulk so it's just a question of whether or not Binnington can repeat his goaltending magic.

Bruins over Leafs again? Both teams have to be getting tired of this match up, I am. Saw Bruins play one preseason game. DeBrusk might have a break out year by what he showed in that one (hat trick). otherwise, they are the same.

Not convinced Tampa can do it in the playoffs this time. Supposed to win it all last year and they don't look much tougher. not sure they can play playoff hockey.

This could be the year Pittsburgh finally falters and fades away. Philly is a wild card to me. A lot depends on Hart. Weird enigmatic team. Some nights brilliant, other nights rubbish so I cant' figure them.

Ottawa will be the worst overall. LA not far ahead of them. Columbus is a ? for me but never count Torts out. Winnipeg might be in deep doo doo. 

Looking at what seems to be our starting line up, we will not make the playoffs. We might do slightly better than last year. 

St. Louis repeats for the cup.

Hughes will win the Calder.

Conn Smyth Binnington this time but it could be ROR :)

 

 

[Randall Flagg]

I don't feel super great about Tampa, but I simply have to pick the roster I think is the best when it comes to who I think is gonna win the cup. There's just not one team I like more, even if I wouldn't put money on them doing it. 
 

[Curt]

Personally, I think Tampa May have learned something from this past playoff upset.  Last year they poured it on throughout the regular season.  This year maybe they take it a little easier during the season, rest some guys at times, and come in with the mindset that playoffs are all that matter.  I think they make a deep run.

Also, VO for the Calder.

[Drunkard]

I can't remember what I put in the other prediction thread but I think the Sabres will finish with around the same 76 points they ended up with last year or possibly a few less (say 72 points). Even if the overall team improves some, we're also not likely to get a 20 point spike from having a 10 game winning streak either so in the end the point totals may end up even lower. I'll probably pass on NHL.tv this year as well, unless they actually show some promise during the 2 week free preview they usually offer at the beginning of the season.

[LGR4GM]

2 minutes ago, Drunkard said:

I can't remember what I put in the other prediction thread but I think the Sabres will finish with around the same 76 points they ended up with last year or possibly a few less (say 72 points). Even if the overall team improves some, we're also not likely to get a 20 point spike from having a 10 game winning streak either so in the end the point totals may end up even lower. I'll probably pass on NHL.tv this year as well, unless they actually show some promise during the 2 week free preview they usually offer at the beginning of the season.

We're also not likely to lose the way we did in February either. 

[Drunkard]

10 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

We're also not likely to lose the way we did in February either. 

I guess we'll see. I think we can agree that you've got more confidence in our GM than I do. I don't see his roster surgery as being adequate but we'll find out over the next 6 months. If I had to put money on it, I'd still bet on finishing with a point total in the 70's.

[LGR4GM]

3 minutes ago, Drunkard said:

I guess we'll see. I think we can agree that you've got more confidence in our GM than I do. I don't see his roster surgery as being adequate but we'll find out over the next 6 months. If I had to put money on it, I'd still bet on finishing with a point total in the 70's.

Yea, I actually noticed the upgrade on defense as opposed to having tunnel vision about 2c. I would guess we finish in the 80's. 70's seems too low for the upgrades that have occurred including the Goalie Coach. 

Edited October 3, 2019 by LGR4GM

[GASabresIUFAN]

If this team can win 7 games a month they’ll have a chance at a very good season. Maybe not playoffs, but close.

7 x 6 = 42 wins, add 6 or so OTL and your talking 88-90 pts. Something like 42-34-6.

2 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

Yea, I actually noticed the upgrade on defense as opposed to having tunnel vision about 2c. I would guess we finish in the 80's. 70's seems too low for the upgrades that have occurred including the Goalie Coach. 

I agree on the defense.  We all focused on the 2C and kind of ignored the additions of Miller, Joker and Montour which essentially remakes 50% of the defense.  Adding a new goalie coach and HCRK could really make the difference plus the defense in the results this season.  When they played with confidence last season they were excellent.  If Bales and RK can maintain a confident team, anything is possible.

 

Edited October 3, 2019 by GASabresIUFAN

[Drunkard]

1 minute ago, LGR4GM said:

Yea, I actually noticed the upgrade on defense as opposed to having tunnel vision about 2c. I would guess we finish in the 80's. 70's seems too low for the upgrades that have occurred including the Goalie Coach. 

No need to be a dick about it. Just because his bargain bin shopping for defenseman gets you all hot and bothered doesn't mean having Johansson and Sobotka in the top 6 isn't going to sink the ship. We'll see.

[LGR4GM]

14 minutes ago, Drunkard said:

No need to be a dick about it. Just because his bargain bin shopping for defenseman gets you all hot and bothered doesn't mean having Johansson and Sobotka in the top 6 isn't going to sink the ship. We'll see.

ok

[GASabresIUFAN]

Here is a Sabres prediction.  Tage Thompson dominates in the A and gets called up by Dec.  Sobotka by then is relegated to the bench and Sheary moves up to take his place thereby opening a slot for Thompson on Mitts’ RW.  The two kids find chemistry and Tage continues his hot scoring in Buffalo adding at least 15 goals. 
 

https://theathletic.com/1250950/2019/09/30/10-bold-sabres-predictions-jack-eichel-sets-career-highs-victor-olofsson-opens-eyes-and-plenty-of-trades-will-be-made/

Some Vogl predictions including Goal-offson scoring 30, Reinhart adding 50 assists and Casey visiting the A.

Edited October 3, 2019 by GASabresIUFAN

[LGR4GM]

3 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Here is a Sabres prediction.  Tage Thompson dominates in the A and gets called up by Dec.  Sobotka by then is relegated to the bench and Sheary moves up to take his place thereby opening a slot for Thompson on Mitts’ RW.  The two kids find chemistry and Tage continues his hot scoring in Buffalo adding at least 15 goals. 

well see now I am hot and bothered. 

[GASabresIUFAN]

13 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

well see now I am hot and bothered. 

In a good way or bad way?

[LGR4GM]

3 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

In a good way or bad way?

Like being 21 and single in Athens on gameday. 

[GASabresIUFAN]

5 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

Like being 21 and single in Athens on gameday. 

Drunk and alone?

[LGR4GM]

3 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Drunk and alone?

no

 

[GASabresIUFAN]

Your comment made think of this song by Corey Smith.

 

[Taro T]

Haven't really followed what other teams have done, but will say it'll be Tampa Bay over Vegas for the Stanley Cup.  Will be expecting Boston over TO is 1st round until it actually doesn't happen.  See no reason yet to expect anything other than what happened last year 2 years running.

Expect the islanders to miss the playoffs, probably getting reached by New Jersey.

Expect Columbus to still be good enough to sneak in.

Will go W/ St. Louis and Pittsburgh as the other 1 division winners but really not confident in either call.

If Jokiharju looks good as the 3RD expect to see Ristolainen and another forward (Rodrigues or Sheary)  traded when Montour is healthy and the Sabres finally get help on the right side.  Sobotka becomes the 13th forward as new guy slots into 2RW and E-Rod or Sheary are the 3RW.

At 1st forward injury, Thompson gets called up and stays up for good.

When Pilut has the rust off within next 2 weeks, he steps into 3rd pairing role.  Scandella traded at deadline for 5th rounder.

Dahlin & Miller look too good together, so when Montour comes back he gets paired with McCabe and Krueger runs an offensive 1A pairing and a more defensive 1B pairing.  With Pilut & Risto/Henry in 3 RD pairing role.

Some time in January, Bogosian comes back.  Bumping Jokiharju to injury replacement until Bogo is traded at deadline surprisingly for a 3rd.

50/50 Mittelstadt stays up all year but he does get benched for a couple of games "to see the game better."

Hutton starts year as #1 in platoon.  Ullmark thrives under new coaching and takes starting job  around Christmas.

If Ristolainen trade happens, Sabres just miss playoffs with 94.  If not, they end with 88. 

Just 365 days until they ice a roster where the "holes" in the lineup are filled by the guys expected to be getting 4th line / 3rd pairing minutes.