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The Sabres Center Conundrum


LGR4GM

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4 hours ago, TrueBlueGED said:

The Hayes contract certainly isn't something I advocated for, nor do I think would be advisable even now...but it'd be a ginormous improvement to our center position, and sometimes you just have to bite the bullet and overpay at the premium positions.

On the more reasonable side of things, Carolina added both Dzingel and Haula for cheap. Neither of them are my ideal solution at 2C, but they are value contracts and represent players who would both be significant center upgrades. I'm in the minority on this, but JT Miller was traded for an acceptable price. Carl Soderberg was moved. Kerfoot and Kadri got traded. We can quibble about trade circumstances and absolute quality of player, but NHL centers moved with some frequency this offseason and Botterill (to this point) didn't land any of them.

Offseason goal #1 should have been to fix, with a capital F, the 2C position. Reasonable arguments can be presented about why that didn't/couldn't happen, but inability to completely fix the 2C position in particular should not and is not an excuse for not improving the center position on the team more generally. 

You could also argue against all the guys you mentioned.

Haula coming off a serious knee injury that kept him out almost all of last season. Sure, he might be a good pick up if he regains play but risk is there.

Is Kadri worth more than ROR? Av's will pay Kadri $4.5M and retain $2.75M of Barrie's contract for a total of $7.25M. Kadrri only had 44pts on a stacked TO team. Sure, he brings other tangibles but do we have a Barrie, Kerfoot (whom you also mentioned as a replacement for Mitts) and a pick to trade?

Soderberg turning 34yrs old in a couple weeks and near $5M had 49pts last yr on a somewhat talented Av's team. Would he get that with the wingers we had? Who knows

Kerfoot ...last 2 yrs with Av's 42 and 43 pts.  Not bad but again not exactly what we need and signed for about 4 more years( I'll add to this in a moment).

JT Miller is also signed for about 4 more years and had less than 50pts on Tampa where it seems like everyone scores 100pts.

Now, I'm not saying that you can find an upgrade to Mitts in anyone of these players in the short term. But if Mitts has a reasonable developement and some steadying wingers like maybe Johansson and Sam, I could see him having close to 40pts. So how much of an upgrade are anyone of those guys? What do you do with them when/ if Mitts develops in 1-2yrs? What about Cozens if you think that you could drop one of those guys to the 3rd line? Will you be able to trade them later on or will they become a Sabotka in a couple years? 

I give you credit for naming some decent alternatives to our roster but I think we'll be alright and have some options on the roster if things don't go well for Mitts (E-Rod, Johansson). Like I said, you argue all day both sides with the players you mentioned but we probably agree that not one of them will replace ROR and none will be a major upgrade to Mitts ("If he develops at a decent rate).

All this and.....would any of these guys come here/ do we have the right parts for a trade?

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3 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

It all has to come together. Defense, Centers, Goaltending. We haven't seen it even manifest except for that short 10 game win streak. Will be curious to see what next week brings when lines start to show some semblance of solidifying. 

Yes, if the additions to the defense have the expected improvements, there could be less shots on goal, and specifically less point blank shots, which would mask the goaltending deficiencies.

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From this thread: https://hfboards.mandatory.com/threads/2019-20-nhl-lines-lineup-notes-thread-as-of-sept-17th-19-9-00am.2677901/

Center spines for other teams are projected (by their fans) to be as follows.
Boston Bruins: Patrice Bergeron - David Krejci - Charlie Coyle - Sean Kuraly
Buffalo Sabres: Jack Eichel - Casey Mittelstadt - Evan Rodrigues - Johan Larsson
Carolina Hurricanes: Sebastian Aho - Jordan Staal - Erik Haula - Lucas Wallmark
Columbus Blue Jackets: Pierre-Luc Dubois - Boone Jenner - Alexander Wennberg - Riley Nash
Detroit Red Wings: Dylan Larkin - Frans Nielsen - Valtteri Filppula - Luke Glendening
Florida Panthers: Aleksander Barkov - Vincent Trocheck - Henrik Borgstrom - Noel Acciari
Montreal Canadiens: Max Domi - Philip Danault - Jesperi Kotkaniemi - Nick Cousins
New Jersey Devils: Nico Hischier - Jack Hughes - Travis Zajac - Pavel Zacha
New York Islanders: Matthew Barzal - Brock Nelson - Derick Brassard - Casey Cizikas
New York Rangers: Mika Zibanejad - Filip Chytil - Ryan Strome - Brett Howden
Ottawa Senators: Colin White - JG Pageau - Chris Tierney - Artem Anisimov
Philadelphia Flyers: Sean Couturier - Kevin Hayes - Nolan Patrick - Scott Laughton
Pittsburgh Penguins: Sidney Crosby - Evgeni Malkin - Nick Bjugstad - Teddy Blueger
Tampa Bay Lightning: Brayden Point - Steven Stamkos - Anthony Cirelli - Cedric Pacquette
Toronto Maple Leafs: John Tavares - Auston Matthews - Alex Kerfoot - Jason Spezza
Washington Capitals: Nicklas Backstrom - Evgeny Kuznetsov - Lars Eller - Chandler Stephenson
Anaheim Ducks: Ryan Getzlaf - Sam Steel - Adam Henrique - Carter Rowney
Arizona Coyotes: Derek Stepan - Nick Schmaltz - Carl Soderberg - Brad Richardson
Calgary Flames: Sean Monahan - Mikael Backlund - Mark Jankowski - Derek Ryan
Chicago Blackhawks: Jonathan Toews - Dylan Strome - David Kampf - Zack Smith
Colorado Avalanche: Nathan MacKinnon - Nazem Kadri - Tyson Jost - Pierre-Edouard Bellemare
Dallas Stars: Tyler Seguin - Roope Hintz - Radek Faksa - Ty Dellandria (I think Pavelski will play some C)
Edmonton Oilers: Connor McDavid - Ryan Nugent-Hopkins - Riley Sheahan - Sam Gagner
LA Kings: Anze Kopitar - Jeff Carter - Adrian Kempe - Michael Amadio
Minnesota Wild: Eric Staal - Mikko Koivu - Joel Eriksson-Ek - Luke Kunin
Nashville Predators: Ryan Johansen - Matt Duchene - Kyle Turris - Nick Bonino
San Jose Sharks: Logan Couture - Tomas Hertl - Joe Thornton - Barclay Goodrow
St. Louis Blues: Brayden Schenn - Ryan O'Reilly - Tyler Bozak - Oskar Sundqvist
Vancouver Canucks: Elias Pettersson - Bo Horvat - Brandon Sutter - Jay Beagle
Vegas Golden Knights: William Karlsson - Paul Stastny - Cody Eakin - Tomas Nosek
Winnipeg Jets: Mark Scheifele - Andrew Copp - Bryan Little - Adam Lowry

In a vacuum for this coming season, the only 2/3/4C's I'd definitely want on our roster less than what we have (I stress, just for 2019-20 in a vacuum) are those for the Rangers and Islanders. Zona and Anaheim may be close, but I'd put my bets on Henrique and Soderberg being better NHLers this year than any of our three. Dallas would be there but Hintz came on FAST at the end of last season, and was outstanding in the playoffs, and Faksa is much more valuable in a 3C role than a 2C one. 

I just don't like how we match up at a critical position for the 40 minutes per game Jack isn't out there, and even then I think Jack is only better than some/half of the 1Cs, not most 
 

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2 hours ago, Randall Flagg said:

From this thread: https://hfboards.mandatory.com/threads/2019-20-nhl-lines-lineup-notes-thread-as-of-sept-17th-19-9-00am.2677901/

Center spines for other teams are projected (by their fans) to be as follows.
Boston Bruins: Patrice Bergeron - David Krejci - Charlie Coyle - Sean Kuraly
Buffalo Sabres: Jack Eichel - Casey Mittelstadt - Evan Rodrigues - Johan Larsson
Carolina Hurricanes: Sebastian Aho - Jordan Staal - Erik Haula - Lucas Wallmark
Columbus Blue Jackets: Pierre-Luc Dubois - Boone Jenner - Alexander Wennberg - Riley Nash
Detroit Red Wings: Dylan Larkin - Frans Nielsen - Valtteri Filppula - Luke Glendening
Florida Panthers: Aleksander Barkov - Vincent Trocheck - Henrik Borgstrom - Noel Acciari
Montreal Canadiens: Max Domi - Philip Danault - Jesperi Kotkaniemi - Nick Cousins
New Jersey Devils: Nico Hischier - Jack Hughes - Travis Zajac - Pavel Zacha
New York Islanders: Matthew Barzal - Brock Nelson - Derick Brassard - Casey Cizikas
New York Rangers: Mika Zibanejad - Filip Chytil - Ryan Strome - Brett Howden
Ottawa Senators: Colin White - JG Pageau - Chris Tierney - Artem Anisimov
Philadelphia Flyers: Sean Couturier - Kevin Hayes - Nolan Patrick - Scott Laughton
Pittsburgh Penguins: Sidney Crosby - Evgeni Malkin - Nick Bjugstad - Teddy Blueger
Tampa Bay Lightning: Brayden Point - Steven Stamkos - Anthony Cirelli - Cedric Pacquette
Toronto Maple Leafs: John Tavares - Auston Matthews - Alex Kerfoot - Jason Spezza
Washington Capitals: Nicklas Backstrom - Evgeny Kuznetsov - Lars Eller - Chandler Stephenson
Anaheim Ducks: Ryan Getzlaf - Sam Steel - Adam Henrique - Carter Rowney
Arizona Coyotes: Derek Stepan - Nick Schmaltz - Carl Soderberg - Brad Richardson
Calgary Flames: Sean Monahan - Mikael Backlund - Mark Jankowski - Derek Ryan
Chicago Blackhawks: Jonathan Toews - Dylan Strome - David Kampf - Zack Smith
Colorado Avalanche: Nathan MacKinnon - Nazem Kadri - Tyson Jost - Pierre-Edouard Bellemare
Dallas Stars: Tyler Seguin - Roope Hintz - Radek Faksa - Ty Dellandria (I think Pavelski will play some C)
Edmonton Oilers: Connor McDavid - Ryan Nugent-Hopkins - Riley Sheahan - Sam Gagner
LA Kings: Anze Kopitar - Jeff Carter - Adrian Kempe - Michael Amadio
Minnesota Wild: Eric Staal - Mikko Koivu - Joel Eriksson-Ek - Luke Kunin
Nashville Predators: Ryan Johansen - Matt Duchene - Kyle Turris - Nick Bonino
San Jose Sharks: Logan Couture - Tomas Hertl - Joe Thornton - Barclay Goodrow
St. Louis Blues: Brayden Schenn - Ryan O'Reilly - Tyler Bozak - Oskar Sundqvist
Vancouver Canucks: Elias Pettersson - Bo Horvat - Brandon Sutter - Jay Beagle
Vegas Golden Knights: William Karlsson - Paul Stastny - Cody Eakin - Tomas Nosek
Winnipeg Jets: Mark Scheifele - Andrew Copp - Bryan Little - Adam Lowry

In a vacuum for this coming season, the only 2/3/4C's I'd definitely want on our roster less than what we have (I stress, just for 2019-20 in a vacuum) are those for the Rangers and Islanders. Zona and Anaheim may be close, but I'd put my bets on Henrique and Soderberg being better NHLers this year than any of our three. Dallas would be there but Hintz came on FAST at the end of last season, and was outstanding in the playoffs, and Faksa is much more valuable in a 3C role than a 2C one. 

I just don't like how we match up at a critical position for the 40 minutes per game Jack isn't out there, and even then I think Jack is only better than some/half of the 1Cs, not most 
 

That's not really the issue here. The real issue is ....how many of those 2C's could you actually get away from those teams and not turn their team into ours?

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Part of the problem is obviously trading ROR AND having Bergland quit. Pretty sure the plan was for him to be 2C while developing Casey slower as 3rd or 4th but that happened.

The other part of the problem is centers we draft never manage to be good enough to be centers. Sam was supposed to be a 2C wasn't he? Girgensens was supposed to play center wasn't he? You move everybody to the wing you're going to be short a few centers.

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20 minutes ago, PerreaultForever said:

Part of the problem is obviously trading ROR AND having Bergland quit. Pretty sure the plan was for him to be 2C while developing Casey slower as 3rd or 4th but that happened.

The other part of the problem is centers we draft never manage to be good enough to be centers. Sam was supposed to be a 2C wasn't he? Girgensens was supposed to play center wasn't he? You move everybody to the wing you're going to be short a few centers.

Drafting has gotten better hopefully with Mitts and now Cozens.

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Great list @Randall Flagg. Thanks for doing the legwork for us slackers.

2 hours ago, MakeSabresGrr8Again said:

That's not really the issue here. The real issue is ....how many of those 2C's could you actually get away from those teams and not turn their team into ours?

This is it. If I'm a GM, who among those players am I willing to give up for Ristolainen that would be a legit 2C for the Sabres?

Now -- JBot caused the 2C mess by trading ROR. And there was a supposed stopgap, but he retired. As soon as Berglund left, that's when we needed to make the move. We got to first place in the league (unsustainable), and even then we knew Mitts was not 2C level (yet) and we were solely a one-line team. It would have meant moving a first-round pick. But hey -- maybe that's when we trade to a team that got off to horrid start and had a rental 2C for the remainder of 2018-19 season.

Regardless... for the short-term, we shall see. Long-term, I still like Mitts and Cozens. I need to see more from Mitts, but I'm OK with him being a 2C when he's 23-24 years old if he builds year after year with time and coaching. But that's.... never my mind on where I am. What am I doing?

It's true. All of it. We don't have an NHL-caliber 2C on our roster for this season. That's on JBot.

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31 minutes ago, DarthEbriate said:

Great list @Randall Flagg. Thanks for doing the legwork for us slackers.

This is it. If I'm a GM, who among those players am I willing to give up for Ristolainen that would be a legit 2C for the Sabres?

Now -- JBot caused the 2C mess by trading ROR. And there was a supposed stopgap, but he retired. As soon as Berglund left, that's when we needed to make the move. We got to first place in the league (unsustainable), and even then we knew Mitts was not 2C level (yet) and we were solely a one-line team. It would have meant moving a first-round pick. But hey -- maybe that's when we trade to a team that got off to horrid start and had a rental 2C for the remainder of 2018-19 season.

Regardless... for the short-term, we shall see. Long-term, I still like Mitts and Cozens. I need to see more from Mitts, but I'm OK with him being a 2C when he's 23-24 years old if he builds year after year with time and coaching. But that's.... never my mind on where I am. What am I doing?

It's true. All of it. We don't have an NHL-caliber 2C on our roster for this season. That's on JBot.

What I don’t get is analytics people who were saying during the win streak that it was a fluke this is a trash team who also said we need to trade for a 2C at that moment to fix things. 

 

Where if the team is trash there is no single fix to it. Our defense and goalies were bad last year too and marginally improved by trade. Trading the farm for another 2C, even if realistic (it wasn’t nobody trades 2Cs), would have been putting all our money on a sick horse.  

 

Hypocritical point of view I think. 

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49 minutes ago, DarthEbriate said:

Great list @Randall Flagg. Thanks for doing the legwork for us slackers.

This is it. If I'm a GM, who among those players am I willing to give up for Ristolainen that would be a legit 2C for the Sabres?

Now -- JBot caused the 2C mess by trading ROR. And there was a supposed stopgap, but he retired. As soon as Berglund left, that's when we needed to make the move. We got to first place in the league (unsustainable), and even then we knew Mitts was not 2C level (yet) and we were solely a one-line team. It would have meant moving a first-round pick. But hey -- maybe that's when we trade to a team that got off to horrid start and had a rental 2C for the remainder of 2018-19 season.

Regardless... for the short-term, we shall see. Long-term, I still like Mitts and Cozens. I need to see more from Mitts, but I'm OK with him being a 2C when he's 23-24 years old if he builds year after year with time and coaching. But that's.... never my mind on where I am. What am I doing?

It's true. All of it. We don't have an NHL-caliber 2C on our roster for this season. That's on JBot.

I pretty much agree.

When trying to get that 2C pried away from another team or in FA, other things come into play.

How much is it gonna cost you? Would said player produce as much on our team as they are on current team?

How much would Stamkos or Malkin cost? What would that do to Pitt especially?

How much worse off would Oilers be without RNH? Canucks without Horvat?

How long do you need them? If JT Miller has 4yrs on his contract but you only need him for a year or two so Mitts and Cozens develop will you be able to get a good return if you trade him? 

The elite 2C's will cost too much. The really good ones you won't likely pry away. And the decent ones won't likely upgrade your team enough to make that difference you hope to get. All that and...the timing has to be just right. Catch a team when they're as desperate as you are while having the right pieces each other needs.

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51 minutes ago, triumph_communes said:

What I don’t get is analytics people who were saying during the win streak that it was a fluke this is a trash team who also said we need to trade for a 2C at that moment to fix things.

Where if the team is trash there is no single fix to it. Our defense and goalies were bad last year too and marginally improved by trade. Trading the farm for another 2C, even if realistic (it wasn’t nobody trades 2Cs), would have been putting all our money on a sick horse.  

Hypocritical point of view I think. 

At the time (early in the year), our goalies were doing well. Maybe unsustainable as well, but the wheels hadn't come off and the top line was still chugging along. I don't care for Duchene necessarily, but even early in the year Ottawa could've said "sure, we'll take a 1st and a couple prospects (Guhle?)" and we'd have had a legitimate center to play. It definitely would have given the team the confidence boost that this season we were invested. He still could've ended up a rental and we'd be right where we are now, minus Montour. But all the same, that's when it would have made sense initially.

It certainly needed addressing in the offseason if Johansson isn't centering a line. (And I say all this with very high hopes for Mitts and Cozens.)

 

 

 

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39 minutes ago, MakeSabresGrr8Again said:

The elite 2C's will cost too much. The really good ones you won't likely pry away. And the decent ones won't likely upgrade your team enough to make that difference you hope to get. All that and...the timing has to be just right. Catch a team when they're as desperate as you are while having the right pieces each other needs.

I don't think JBot would consider an elite 2C. It's too much investment from our draft capital.

But... an up-and-comer who's blocked, or a guy who's just starting the downward slope and has been displaced by that up-and-comer. Those are likely to be offseason/draft day trades, because every GM goes full conservative "We're in it to win" in-season until the deadline when it'd be too late to make a difference if we're scuffling all season.

The desperation is important. Winnipeg has been knocking on the door for years. Now, potentially no Byfuglien? But if I'm Winniipeg who am I willing to give up and keep my main guys for now and the future? Little?

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11 hours ago, MillerVaive said:

Leino? Aka the player whose name should be banned here for all eternity? Or did you mean Reino as in Reinhart?

Because if u meant Leino how far back in his youth are we talking about? When he was in Junior A-1 U20 back in Finland?

Im guessing (hoping) you meant Reinhart lol

Umm, isn't junior the last time Reinhart got legit center minutes?

Considering Leino actually shared C duties in Philly w/ Briere on that line he has more successful NHL C experience than Reinhart has.

Just saying.

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I’ve said the this before, but I wonder if the Sabres might be better off with ERod starting the season in the 2C role.  I admit that this isn’t ideal and if Mitts shows he can handle the role through the pre-season then we can table this idea.  However early returns show that Mitts might be stronger, but still may not be ready.  

Erod has improved each season in the face off circle and in points.  He has good speed, good hockey IQ and a reasonable amount of skill.  Primarily a playmaker, I think he’d fit well with Reinhart with any of the potential LWs like Sheary, Olofsson, Johansson or Vesey, although I’d side with Johansson for obvious reasons.

 

 

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I've been in favor of Erod at 2c since about 1 shift after I saw Sobotka there. Give him Reinhart and Johansson. 

Skinner - Eichel - Olofsson

Johansson - Erod - Reinhart

Vesey/Sheary - Mitts - Lazar/Okposo/Thompson (whoever wins this spot)

Sheary/Vesey - Asplund/Larsson - Lazar/Okposo (whoever wins this spot but Tage is 3rd line or better or he goes to Rochester)

 

oooo no, I forgot sobotka in my lineup... 

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21 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

I’ve said the this before, but I wonder if the Sabres might be better off with ERod starting the season in the 2C role.  I admit that this isn’t ideal and if Mitts shows he can handle the role through the pre-season then we can table this idea.  However early returns show that Mitts might be stronger, but still may not be ready.  

Erod has improved each season in the face off circle and in points.  He has good speed, good hockey IQ and a reasonable amount of skill.  Primarily a playmaker, I think he’d fit well with Reinhart with any of the potential LWs like Sheary, Olofsson, Johansson or Vesey, although I’d side with Johansson for obvious reasons.

 

 

100%. I need my 2nd line to be defensively responsible, but able to get it out of the zone and be a threat with the puck more importantly. With the improved D I can see that line being able to transition to attack dangerously.

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9 hours ago, DarthEbriate said:

I don't think JBot would consider an elite 2C. It's too much investment from our draft capital.

But... an up-and-comer who's blocked, or a guy who's just starting the downward slope and has been displaced by that up-and-comer. Those are likely to be offseason/draft day trades, because every GM goes full conservative "We're in it to win" in-season until the deadline when it'd be too late to make a difference if we're scuffling all season.

The desperation is important. Winnipeg has been knocking on the door for years. Now, potentially no Byfuglien? But if I'm Winniipeg who am I willing to give up and keep my main guys for now and the future? Little?

These are the guys that I don't think will make that much of a difference to make it worthwhile. A poster brought up some players that all scored less than 50pts last year. If Casey has developed enough and has decent wingers, he has the ability to step up to about 40pts. there isn't that much difference. And if Casey can't we still have others that might be able to bring some additional help scoring until Mitts does take over that role. I guess what I'm saying is that if we're gonna make a trade for a 2C....make it a good one or don't bother. I would rather trade for a really good one and be done with Mitts or let Mitts continue to prove himself worthy. 

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2 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

I’ve said the this before, but I wonder if the Sabres might be better off with ERod starting the season in the 2C role.  I admit that this isn’t ideal and if Mitts shows he can handle the role through the pre-season then we can table this idea.  However early returns show that Mitts might be stronger, but still may not be ready.  

Erod has improved each season in the face off circle and in points.  He has good speed, good hockey IQ and a reasonable amount of skill.  Primarily a playmaker, I think he’d fit well with Reinhart with any of the potential LWs like Sheary, Olofsson, Johansson or Vesey, although I’d side with Johansson for obvious reasons.

 

 

Clearly they'd be better off trying Rodrigues at 2C rather than any of the other options currently on the roster.  (In the end Johansson might be a better option, but they seem fairly set on not looking at him there.)

Putting him at 2C rather than Mittelstadt leaves a viable but less than ideal 2nd line and actually could leave a reasonable/good 3rd line.

Only been beating that drum the entire off-season.

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Just now, Randall Flagg said:

I still can't even picture ERod as a center. he's just a hockey player that is forced to play the pivot because we don't have any 

I can, but not a 2C.  I like ERod, but he's a 3rd line player, mostly, who can travel on the wing.  I wasn't pleased with his appearance the other day.

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1 minute ago, ... said:

I can, but not a 2C.  I like ERod, but he's a 3rd line player, mostly, who can travel on the wing.  I wasn't pleased with his appearance the other day.

Right, I always picture him as a rover that goes in whatever middle/bottom six slot needs a player. It's just always center for us. He's taken Jack's spot when Jack has been hurt before and it goes as you'd expect

 

 

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