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The Sabres Center Conundrum


LGR4GM

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8 minutes ago, jad1 said:

Defensive rebuild, meh. This is the only team whose defense has three first rounders (all taken in the top 10) and three second rounders on the roster, but they need a rebuild.

The team defense actually got worse after they added Montour, a good player who actually played well after the trade.

How many more slick, puck-moving defensemen does Botterill need if they all lose their minds when the opponent has the puck behind their own net?

I often wonder if Ristolainen would have all his issues with d-zone exits if he played under Ruff after the lockout.

Botterill is spending resources to fix a problem that should be addressed by coaching.  Hopefully Krueger has learned how to coach team defensive zone structure in the EPL.

I don't understand this line. They had 2 top 10 draft picks (who cares?) in there defense for the majority of last season. Risto and Dahlin. Bogosian is injured basically all the time. So yes? They needed a rebuild if you are saying having Risto, Bogo, and Dahlin last year made them good. Montour, Jokiharju, and Miller are fall outside the top 20. Pilut was undrafted. All 4 added or to the Sabres roster well after the season opened. Again, I don't get your point. 

Also 1 more note, who the ***** cares where someone was drafted? In what way does that tell me 6-8 years after the draft how good they are in the NHL? 

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1 hour ago, LGR4GM said:

Those 2 are the future options for the position. That is why I specifically mentioned them. 

Zemgus Girgensons is not a center. 

Cozens game will transfer easier to the NHL compared to what Mitts' game has thus far.

 

Girgensons is a better center than winger.  Don't @ me

 

I agree about Cozens, but he needs a year or two

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5 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

I don't understand this line. They had 2 top 10 draft picks (who cares?) in there defense for the majority of last season. Risto and Dahlin. Bogosian is injured basically all the time. So yes? They needed a rebuild if you are saying having Risto, Bogo, and Dahlin last year made them good. Montour, Jokiharju, and Miller are fall outside the top 20. Pilut was undrafted. All 4 added or to the Sabres roster well after the season opened. Again, I don't get your point. 

Also 1 more note, who the ***** cares where someone was drafted? In what way does that tell me 6-8 years after the draft how good they are in the NHL? 

I'm saying that the issue with the defense last season had more to do with coaching than the talent.  I'm saying a decent coach, like Lindy Ruff in his prime, would have built a good defense with Bogo, Risto, and Dahlin (all top 10 picks).

I'm saying a good coach would have gotten more out of McCabe and Scandella.

I'm saying that with better coaching on the back end, the GM could use more resources to fix the issues he caused on the front end.

And, sorry, we all should give a fxxx where someone is drafted.  The whole god-dxxxed reason the Sabres are in the current hole is because they willfully positioned themselves to draft players at certain positions in the draft.

This current team is built on the premise of high-draft picks. The GM's entire m.o. is building the pipeline, which emphasizes where guys are picked in the draft.  This comes at a cost and if the front office can't find success with those highly drafted players, you find a front office who can.

 

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5 minutes ago, jad1 said:

I'm saying that the issue with the defense last season had more to do with coaching than the talent.  I'm saying a decent coach, like Lindy Ruff in his prime, would have built a good defense with Bogo, Risto, and Dahlin (all top 10 picks).

I'm saying a good coach would have gotten more out of McCabe and Scandella.

I'm saying that with better coaching on the back end, the GM could use more resources to fix the issues he caused on the front end.

And, sorry, we all should give a fxxx where someone is drafted.  The whole god-dxxxed reason the Sabres are in the current hole is because they willfully positioned themselves to draft players at certain positions in the draft.

This current team is built on the premise of high-draft picks. The GM's entire m.o. is building the pipeline, which emphasizes where guys are picked in the draft.  This comes at a cost and if the front office can't find success with those highly drafted players, you find a front office who can.

 

The entire team isn't built on the premise of high draft picks. By that I mean not every single person on the team has to be a top 10 pick. No GM thinks that and our current GM wasn't even here when that strategy was engaged in which. But the heart of the matter is why again should I care if Zach Bogosian was drafted at 3rd or 50th if he is injured and broken? What just because he was a higher draft pick, in a different draft, he is better than Montour or Jokiharju?  I don't think people say "hey I want Zach Bogosian because 5 years ago he was drafted 3rd overall"? Talent evaluation is all about what have you done for me lately. 

Bogo is literally starting the year on IR. You arguing to start this year with the exact same defense as last year because the coach would have made it better. Sure they could but why not give that coach better players? You can't build a good defense with 3 players and no depth. Botterill fixed the depth and talent level. Risto is bad defensively, Bogo is on IR. This argument doesn't even make sense. If Botterill had used resources on a #2 center, let's call that center Anthony Cirelli, and had ignored the defense we would have what this year?

Dahin - Risto

McCabe - Nelson

Scandella - Borgen

That would be our starting defense. Let me barf in a bucket. 

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1 hour ago, nfreeman said:

This I think is a key point.  For those criticizing JB for not bringing in a real 2C:  which guys were available this summer that JB should've gotten?  Kevin Hayes is a fair response -- but we should remember that he got 7 years x $7.14MM to go to Philly.  How much would he have required to go to Buffalo instead?  7 years x $8MM?  Would anyone have wanted to give him that much?

Having said that, it's not unfair to criticize JB for failing to solve the problem, especially after he traded ROR.  Nor is it unfair to criticize JB for having Mittsie be the plan to fill the hole -- especially if Mittsie is a washout, which is distinctly possible.  I just think it's also fair to expect the JB critics to be able to name some guys that JB should've brought in.

The Hayes contract certainly isn't something I advocated for, nor do I think would be advisable even now...but it'd be a ginormous improvement to our center position, and sometimes you just have to bite the bullet and overpay at the premium positions.

On the more reasonable side of things, Carolina added both Dzingel and Haula for cheap. Neither of them are my ideal solution at 2C, but they are value contracts and represent players who would both be significant center upgrades. I'm in the minority on this, but JT Miller was traded for an acceptable price. Carl Soderberg was moved. Kerfoot and Kadri got traded. We can quibble about trade circumstances and absolute quality of player, but NHL centers moved with some frequency this offseason and Botterill (to this point) didn't land any of them.

Offseason goal #1 should have been to fix, with a capital F, the 2C position. Reasonable arguments can be presented about why that didn't/couldn't happen, but inability to completely fix the 2C position in particular should not and is not an excuse for not improving the center position on the team more generally. 

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I really think we are underselling how important our defensive rebuild will be to team success. Yes we need a center but again, we can't focus on that to the detriment of all else. 

If Botterill had gotten a 2c and had done nothing for the defense (no montour, miller, joki) we would be sitting here today lamenting how with Bogo on our IR we need Borgen to step up on defense and Nelson to play meaningful minutes and hoping that Risto finally got his ***** together. 

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2 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

I really think we are underselling how important our defensive rebuild will be to team success. Yes we need a center but again, we can't focus on that to the detriment of all else. 

If Botterill had gotten a 2c and had done nothing for the defense (no montour, miller, joki) we would be sitting here today lamenting how with Bogo on our IR we need Borgen to step up on defense and Nelson to play meaningful minutes and hoping that Risto finally got his ***** together. 

Do you really think Alex Nylander and the picks we moved for Miller would have been gone and irreplaceable if we had gotten a center? I think it's a stretch to assume acquiring a center would have prevented adding Miller and Jokiharju. 

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We've spent the last few years building up our pipeline, and its still a work in progress. We are not trading Risto unless we get a very very good return. We are not trading our prospect pool or draft picks for fill ins unless that deal heavily favors the Sabres IMO. 

 

I believe we need to let the pipeline compete for the 2C position and the rest of the roster wait for the right deal to present itself. This team is ripe for improvement but no where near ripe for a deep playoff run, therefore why force a deal to make ourselves half relevant this year.

 

I too believe coaching can bring the biggest difference from last year to this year. Is Ralph that guy, stay tuned.

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7 minutes ago, TrueBlueGED said:

Do you really think Alex Nylander and the picks we moved for Miller would have been gone and irreplaceable if we had gotten a center? I think it's a stretch to assume acquiring a center would have prevented adding Miller and Jokiharju. 

Would we have had the cap space? Would Botterill have looked? Would we have waited on the Montour trade to have the ammo for that center trade? What would we have used for the center trade? We have the defense we do right now because it was a weakness and now it is a strength. 

What if the price for Cirelli was Nylander and the 1st we had for Montour?  So sure you can still get Miller but do you want the defense to be Risto - Miller - Nelson with Bogo on IR or Montour - Risto - Miller - Jokiharju - Nelson? Alternately what if I can trade for Montour but I now have to use the Cozens pick and Nylander to get Cirelli or whoever (doesn't really matter, young 2c)? Is that worth it? 

It all flows together. We are so focused on the center position we have almost become blinded to the other things that did happen. It is why I read on here almost daily that Botterill "can make trades" or "he's afraid to make trades because of ROR".  We are blinded to the things that have happened because the one thing we want to happen has not occurred. 

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1 minute ago, inkman said:

I'd be shocked if he played more than 9 games this season with the Sabres. 

I agree I think that's the plan. 

2 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

My argument is not necessarily we could not have improved our defense if we traded for a 2C but that we did improve our defense and that is a positive to look at after this summer. 

Also gave us some chips to play with to negotiate a deal when it reveals itself

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1 hour ago, LGR4GM said:

Was it? We had a coach who insisted on playing lesser players in Sobotka and Scandella instead of better guys like Erod and Pilut. We had a defense with no depth and major skill issues. Dahlin and McCabe were good on the left but you had Risto (we've already documented his defensive issues) and then Bogo (who got injured again) and Nelson. That was our right side. Our 3rd LHD was Scandella for much of the season and he couldn't cope with a bad RHD partner once Bealiueu was traded. I think the center position was a major issues last year but there were other major issues that contributed including sub standard goaltending and right side defense that from top to bottom was bad in their own zone. 

Yes, it was. We are measurably worst in the league at getting production from our middle six centers. This led to their wingers, guys who have been capable in that position in better situations like Sheary or even Kyle, putting up sub-par seasons themselves. But it was the center position there explicitly that was worse than any other team was putting out. While we were winning, and into the losing after that, the centers led that middle six into a stretch of 100 combined games with just 1 combined goal from their lines. So when Jack got hurt and cooled off, we were sunk, and it never got better because those positions were not capable of doing better - they were consistently dreadful all year long. 

2C3Cpointprojections.thumb.PNG.d69d8bbafbbab6b39734e92472d85bc6.PNG

It's not the only reason we were bad, certainly, but it was a major, major driving factor, and there isn't one that I'd put above it in importance (goaltending is right there too, and that is the same this year too). I was just as mad about Sobotka over ERod as anyone else, but the production from those lines didn't meaningfully shift when they eventually switched as 3C, and I take that switch into account when I talk about our middle six centers
 

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42 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

My argument is not necessarily we could not have improved our defense if we traded for a 2C but that we did improve our defense and that is a positive to look at after this summer. 

The D on paper is better due tomorrow Dahlin & Pilut being 1 more year experienced and due to what certainly appear to be very good trades.

The goaltending might not be what it was in October, but it will definitely be better than it was in February due to bringing in Bales instead of Allen.

The forwards, in general, will be better between Eichel & Reinhart's hitting their primes along with having Olofsson a full year and having Johansson.  But that hole at 2C could very well torpedo both the 2nd and 3rd lines. 

And that is why many are predicting improvement (barring additional trade, I'd expect high 89's W/ an outside shot of low 90's) but not enough to get into the dance.

1 hour ago, erickompositör72 said:

Getting back to the topic of the thread...

Marcus Johansson

Sam Reinhart

 

If these are backup plans for no 2C trade, I'm very curious to how they could work. Was it Krueger or Botts (or both) who mentioned giving Samson another go at center?

Remember, Samson has not played center since before his 2018 "coming of age"

And Leino had been a good C in his youth as well.  How did that experiment work out?

At least Johansson has played C effectively at the NHL level, even though it was a long time ago.  Shouldno trade materialize, Rodrigues flame out, and after Mittelstadt does flame out, would much rather try Marcus at 2C rather than Reinhart.  Though Sam would be option #5.  (He should be an option prior to Mitts, but that's not how it'll work out.)

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5 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

Now look at the other end of that chart and Edmonton. How'd they do this past year with that trash defense they put out? 

I was an idiot when I counted Edmonton's, because I used Draisaitl and RNH, when Drai ran shotgun to McDavid most of the year. Replace it with RNH and whoever their 3C was (Khaira? crickets) they would fall off a cliff. Leon gave them a literal 100 point boost just because I had a brain fart when I made that chart in April

But anyway, how those other teams are built and what their own problems were are not relevant to the fact that every conceivable metric tells us our defense was average at allowing shots and allowing scoring chances (matching what I saw all season long, nothing terrible or spectacular on a team level from the defense) while our forward depth, particularly driven by two lines that got insanely favorable matchups (Mitts had the highest, or top 3, percentage of offensive zone starts of any NHL player with 500 minutes) drove our standings collapse and inability to keep up with teams 5v5, by simply being unable to create offense at any meaningful level for the entirety of the season, ESPECIALLY in the most critical parts.

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1 hour ago, LGR4GM said:

The entire team isn't built on the premise of high draft picks. By that I mean not every single person on the team has to be a top 10 pick. No GM thinks that and our current GM wasn't even here when that strategy was engaged in which. But the heart of the matter is why again should I care if Zach Bogosian was drafted at 3rd or 50th if he is injured and broken? What just because he was a higher draft pick, in a different draft, he is better than Montour or Jokiharju?  I don't think people say "hey I want Zach Bogosian because 5 years ago he was drafted 3rd overall"? Talent evaluation is all about what have you done for me lately. 

Bogo is literally starting the year on IR. You arguing to start this year with the exact same defense as last year because the coach would have made it better. Sure they could but why not give that coach better players? You can't build a good defense with 3 players and no depth. Botterill fixed the depth and talent level. Risto is bad defensively, Bogo is on IR. This argument doesn't even make sense. If Botterill had used resources on a #2 center, let's call that center Anthony Cirelli, and had ignored the defense we would have what this year?

Dahin - Risto

McCabe - Nelson

Scandella - Borgen

That would be our starting defense. Let me barf in a bucket. 

 

Well then the thought a second line of Vesey-Sobotka-Sheary must make you want to commit hari-kari.

And you give that defensive lineup to a guy like Trotz or in-his-prime Ruff, and you would get a much differnet and better result. 

And whatever you think about draft position, the fact remains that Eichel, Dahlin, Reinhart, Skinner, Mittelstadt, Ristolainen,  and Bogosian were top ten picks.  That's one third of the lineup who are top 10 picks with Cozens on deck. 

If that lineup doesn't produce more that 85 points, what do you do? Trade them for career third pairing guys and third liners? Or do you bring in a front office who can manage and optimize that talent.

 

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34 minutes ago, Taro T said:

And Leino had been a good C in his youth as well.  How did that experiment work out?)

Leino? Aka the player whose name should be banned here for all eternity? Or did you mean Reino as in Reinhart?

Because if u meant Leino how far back in his youth are we talking about? When he was in Junior A-1 U20 back in Finland?

Im guessing (hoping) you meant Reinhart lol

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