Reinhart contract extension

[Randall Flagg]

That list is based on where they left off at game 82, and could certainly have changed to this point, but we don't have any real games to see yet. 

It's not an insult to Dahlin that he's on the same tier as a legit top line forward. 

[sweetlou]

I think Reinhart contract will be similar to one Hischier just signed with Devils.  Reinhart is much better player, and I think Devils will regret that contract in a couple of years.

[Thorny]

7 hours ago, sweetlou said:

I think Reinhart contract will be similar to one Hischier just signed with Devils.  Reinhart is much better player, and I think Devils will regret that contract in a couple of years.

Hischier has been better than Reinhart comparing them year over year. Reinhart's deal will be a bit more though due to the time he's signing it, Hischier still on his ELC. 

Edited October 21, 2019 by Thorny

[Zamboni]

I can see and accept Reinhart getting 6-8 year, 6.5-8 mil. per.

[SHAAAUGHT!!!]

JBotts has an incredible amount of flexibility next year with so much salary coming off the books.  What I hadn't really considered until today was the incremental cap space he should see from Seattle.  Here is a decent article from Forbes that talks about the impact Vegas had on the cap.  

https://www.forbes.com/sites/ryanlake/2018/12/06/nhl-expansion-to-seattle-brings-hope-of-higher-salaries-for-players/#4c6e7d332125

This could give JBotts the option of giving someone like Samson a bigger deal without stretching himself too thin in year 3-8.  I see Reino getting 8 years @ 7.5-8.5M AAV,

Edited October 21, 2019 by SHAAAUGHT!!!

[Thorny]

19 minutes ago, SHAAAUGHT!!! said:

JBotts has an incredible amount of flexibility next year with so much salary coming off the books.  What I hadn't really considered until today was the incremental cap space he should see from Seattle.  Here is a decent article from Forbes that talks about the impact Vegas had on the cap.  

https://www.forbes.com/sites/ryanlake/2018/12/06/nhl-expansion-to-seattle-brings-hope-of-higher-salaries-for-players/#4c6e7d332125

This could give JBotts the option of giving someone like Samson a bigger deal without stretching himself too thin in year 3-8.  I see Reino getting 8 years @ 7.5-8.5M AAV,

It's worth noting that said flexibility only exists if the players we expect to be moved on from at season's end, are indeed moved on from. Botterill hasn't exactly shown a willingness to let players go, has he? (Poor Pominville). 

Do we still want to move on from Sobotka's 3.5 mil? Sheary's 3? Larsson and Girgensons combined 3+? In addition, they are now pending UFA.

What about Scandella's 4 million? That was seen as a sure fire avenue right there, but perhaps his play this year had changed that. 

Bogosian's 5+ still seems likely to be moved on from. 

Lots of big RFA deals on the horizon, as well. It seems a little counter-intuitive, but the better we play this season, the less flexible that cap situation appears to be. 

There's no way Botterill should have anything other than a "TBD" in the space for grading cap management. His work is yet to come, and it'll be fascinating to see what he does. (Good early returns so far on things like drafting, though, and perhaps even team construction if early results this season continue). 

Edited October 21, 2019 by Thorny

[dudacek]

People are willing to fire JBot on less than three years, but haven seen enough to give him marks on cap management?

He seems to have done well so far with the contracts he’s signed and with creating flexibility for the future.

[Thorny]

11 minutes ago, dudacek said:

People are willing to fire JBot on less than three years, but haven seen enough to give him marks on cap management?

He seems to have done well so far with the contracts he’s signed and with creating flexibility for the future.

His cap management has been negligible to base-level competence. What are his great cap victories thus far? That's not to say he's done a poor job of it, not at all.  But I cannot fathom how what he's done thus far can be seen as anything other than expected and required for a position of which there are only 31 of in the world. 

No, I'm not comfortable giving him a mark on cap management, when the vast majority of the work that will define his cap management has yet to unfold. We haven't even gotten to the re-singing the big RFAs stage Dubas got to, and his evaluation changed significantly over time. 

He brought the same amount in as he sent out in the ROR deal. 

He signed Reinhart to a debatable bridge deal. 

He signed Eichel to what looks like a good contract. 

He signed Skinner to a 9 million dollar deal that I'm happy with, but it's certainly not a value deal. 

He's performed the day to day operations that have allowed the Sabres to, as a cap team, be where we've been in the standings during his tenure as GM. 

He hasn't ditched any bad contracts that I can think of, but likely hasn't signed any bad ones yet, either. 

Grade - Incomplete. He hasn't really created any flexibility, he's just allowing flexibility to arise by (presumably) allowing contracts to expire. It can be argued he created a measure of flexibility for this season by signing Sam to a bridge, but it's certainly at the cost of future flexibility. 

The biggest thing for our flexibility that has thus far happened during his tenure is Berglund skipping town. 

Edited October 21, 2019 by Thorny

[GASabresIUFAN]

I wonder what Griffin and Max are going to think when he signs his extension?

[dudacek]

Yes, evaluations change over time. Doesn’t mean you can’t make one now.

Eichel looks to be a bargain down the road, the way his peers are signing. Reinhart is one of the best value contracts around. Hutton/Ullmark bang for the buck in goal looks very good. None of the free agents or trades he has acquired cost term.

People aren’t going to start complaining about Jeff any time soon, and most people would take him over Kane. The McCabes and Larry’s have all re-signed at reasonable numbers.

He has long-term control over all his key assets and big blank canvas next year to paint around them.

He’s dealt with what, 15 to 20 expiring contracts? Are we regretting even one? And you can’t even offer a grudging passing grade?

Call it just baseline competence if you want, but if it is, there are plenty of GMs who aren’t competent.

Edited October 21, 2019 by dudacek

[#freejame]

10 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

I wonder what Griffin and Max are going to think when he signs his extension?

A key to the lake house and one hour a week on Sam’s boat. 

[Thorny]

11 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Yes, evaluations change over time. Doesn’t mean you can’t make one now.

Eichel looks to be a bargain down the road, the way his peers are signing. Reinhart is one of the best value contracts around. Hutton/Ullmark bang for the buck in goal looks very good. None of the free agents or trades he has acquired cost term.

People aren’t going to start complaining about Jeff any time soon, and most people would take him over Kane. The McCabes and Larry’s have all re-signed at reasonable numbers.

He has long-term control over all his key assets and big blank canvas next year to paint around them.

He’s dealt with what, 15 to 20 expiring contracts? Are we regretting even one? And you can’t even offer a grudging passing grad?

Call it just baseline competence if you want, but if it is, there are plenty of GMs who aren’t competent.

If Eichel looks to be a bargain down the road, it's pretty tough to factor that into the evaluation if you are in demand of one through the lens of the current product. 

Re-signing Jeff is not a plus in terms of cap management. He paid about the max that people were predicting. 

Credit for long term control over his best assets? Did Botterill write the CBA? He has control over Dahlin and Reinhart and Mittelstadt cause every GM would at this point. He paid Eichel a reasonable deal, Skinner's was on the high end. I *literally* could have negotiated those 2 deals. So could you have. 

The fact he has a blank canvas is exactly the point He is getting that blank canvas simply by letting deals expire, IF, big IF, he does without resigning them. Put ME in the GM chair and I could sit and wait out the Sobotka, Scandella, Bogosian, etc deals. His one-year re-ups of the lower level RFAs is standard stuff. The canvas is blank, I want to judge him on what he does with that blank canvas. 

I can give him a "'pass" right now if you need it, it just seems rather irrelevant when it's a pass on probably 5% of what he'll be judged on.

What good is it if Reinhart is on a value deal right now if he's NOT going to be when we are actually competing for a cup? Was JBot maximizing this season or going forward?

Edited October 21, 2019 by Thorny

[dudacek]

You can complain about the Reinhart deal - I did - but it has allowed him an extra a $3-4 million this year that meant we could add Miller or Johansson while we’re weaning our selves of the leftover bad contracts.

If slowly letting bad deals expire instead of trading away assets to get rid of them isn’t a conscious decision he made in order to build the roster he wanted, I don’t know what to say.

Edited October 21, 2019 by dudacek

[Thorny]

3 minutes ago, dudacek said:

You can complain about the Reinhart deal - I did - but it has allowed him an extra a $3-4 million this year that meant we could add Miller or Johansson while we’re weaning our selves of the leftover ba contracts.

And by the same logic, his extension will prevent us from signing that player next season. See, Scandella. 

He hasn't done a "good" job managing the cap. He's just done the job. There are SO many outstanding variables it just seems pointless to judge him at this stage of the game. 

Edited October 21, 2019 by Thorny

[dudacek]

1 minute ago, Thorny said:

And by the same logic, his extension will prevent us from signing that player next season. See, Scandella. 

He’s paying the players he thinks are worthy.

He’s acquiring guys like Miller and Jokiharju and developing guys like Samuelsson and Johnson so he doesn’t have to pay big money to expiring contracts like Bogo and Scandella.

 

[Thorny]

10 minutes ago, dudacek said:

He’s paying the players he thinks are worthy.

He’s acquiring guys like Miller and Jokiharju and developing guys like Samuelsson and Johnson so he doesn’t have to pay big money to expiring contracts like Bogo and Scandella.

 

Right. So i'll sooner give him a high grade on things like roster construction and drafting if those players do indeed look like they are going to assume the roles. And I'll judge his cap acumen based the the financial make-up of the roster he constructs with those players. 

He hasn't certainly NOT (now or going forward) given deals to those Scandella and Bogosian types, yet. We are 7 and 2 and I love it. Let's see what happens. You've eloquently outlined the reasons for why he shouldn't get a "bad" grade on cap management. But little to outline why he should get a "good" one. This comes later. 

Letting the bad deals naturally expire rather than moving them off the roster. 1 year standard re-ups of the RFAs. Reinhart bridge. The vast majority of what he's done cap wise is "kicking the can down the road" and so too will I, my evaluation. 

Anything long term he's already done...I don't give Murray praise for selecting Jack 2 overall. I don't give Botterill praise for handing Jack 80 million dollars. Everyone would have done that. 

Edited October 21, 2019 by Thorny

[GASabresIUFAN]

Can I enter this discussion?

I follow the cap pretty closely.  I think Jbot has done an excellent job getting us to a positive position cap wise.  He has worked not unlike his counter part with the Bills.  

It's no coincidence that the team seems to be turning a corner just as we'll have the max cap room we've had in years.  

Jbot has been very frugal in the contracts he signed or acquired.  (and he got lucky with Berglund).  MoJo for 2 years at 4.9 looks like a steal.  Miller for 3 years at a reasonable deal.  Sheary and Hunwick were only 2 years commitments and Vesey only one.  He played hard ball with McCabe (2 years) and Erod (1 year) and can move on from both as the kids mature and take their place.  

Only Skinner and Eichel have been signed long-term and they are core pieces.  Dahlin and Reinhart will be given long-term deals as well and they will be the core.  Everyone else is probably expendable to varying degrees.  This insures cap stability.  

I posted the following in the 2020-21 Lineup thread

Quote

 

I know 6 games into the new season this is very premature but it’s also important to know where the team stands long-term as Jbot is certainly looking at these numbers to determine who to keep, who to let walk and who to acquire or trade this current season for the long-term health and success of the franchise.  

Jbot has us in great cap shape for next season.

Based on these early season returns, I’m envisioning Asplund, Cozens, Lazar (RFA)and Thompson (RFA) (3.4 total next year) taking over for Sheary, Erod, Vesey and Sobotka (current cost 10.775). I also see Mitts (2 years at 2.5 per), Larsson (3 years at 2.25 per), Girgensons (3 years at 2.25) being re-signed.  Samson get 6 years at 7.25 per and Olofsson 3 years @ 4 per season.

Of course Mojo, KO, Jack and Skinner all return (cap cost 29.5).  These 13 forwards have a total cap cost of 51.15

On defense we have Risto, McCabe, Miller, Joker, and Dahlin all signed for 13.975. Borgen can serve at the 7th D for .864 and that leaves only Montour to re-sign (3.875).  No idea what kind of deal he gets, but at 25, maybe we sign him for 5 years at 5 per season.  This puts our D group at 19.84.

In goal Hutton has a year left at 2.75 and Ullmark is an RFA.  I’d say 2 years at 2.25 per season, thus 5 mill for goaltending.

Lastly we still owe CoHo .792 for 4 more years.

The 22 man roster would have a cap cost of $76 mill plus CoHo.  

Lines

VO Jack Sam

Skinner MoJo Mitts

Asplund Cozens Thompson

Girgensons Larsson KO

Lazar

Dahlin Montour

McCabe Risto

Miller Joker

Borgen

Hutton Ullmark

 

Obviously this won’t be the opening roster next year, but it may not be far off either.  Jbot has room to make a deal to add a top forward or can still trade Risto to end to over crowding on the RHD and open a slot for Pilut.  He also may want to hold onto the cap space so that he can re-sign Dahlin long-term.  

 

 

Edited October 21, 2019 by GASabresIUFAN

[dudacek]

41 minutes ago, Thorny said:

. 

Anything long term he's already done...I don't give Murray praise for selecting Jack 2 overall. I don't give Botterill praise for handing Jack 80 million dollars. Everyone would have done that. 

 Not everyone.

People bashed Chiarelli hard for Draisaitl’s deal, but it is proving to be a good one.

People we’re mildly surprised about Ekblad’s deal, but there wasn’t a lot of gnashing of teeth. So far, it’s been a bad one.

Botterill could have gone bridge with Eichel, or been forced into a Matthews/Marner situation. Neither happened. 

Is it relevant that Olofsson is being set up by Eichel and Dahlin?

Sure, But you still have to bury the puck.

[PerreaultForever]

2 hours ago, Thorny said:

Do we still want to move on from Sobotka's 3.5 mil? Sheary's 3? Larsson and Girgensons combined 3+? In addition, they are now pending UFA.

What about Scandella's 4 million? That was seen as a sure fire avenue right there, but perhaps his play this year had changed that. 

Bogosian's 5+ still seems likely to be moved on from. 

If the team keeps winning and these players play solid roles he will attempt to resign any and all of them. Maybe with the exception of Bogo who i think may be done as a Sabre.

having said that though, no one on that list is unreplaceable and/or essential and if they want more than their UFA competition around the league they will be let go. Nobody on that list is going to get a substantial raise.

Edited October 21, 2019 by PerreaultForever

[Zamboni]

Meh. I’m not all negative Nancy on JB. Could he have done better? Of course! So could 30 other GM’s.

Could he have done worse? Of course! So could 30 other GM’s.

To date, I think I’ll give him a solid B. Room to improve, and I hope he does. And not at all a terrible GM.

[Thorny]

1 hour ago, dudacek said:

 Not everyone.

People bashed Chiarelli hard for Draisaitl’s deal, but it is proving to be a good one.

People we’re mildly surprised about Ekblad’s deal, but there wasn’t a lot of gnashing of teeth. So far, it’s been a bad one.

Botterill could have gone bridge with Eichel, or been forced into a Matthews/Marner situation. Neither happened. 

Is it relevant that Olofsson is being set up by Eichel and Dahlin?

Sure, But you still have to bury the puck.

Matthews set that precedent though, Eichel was never going to be the guy to set it. Those other guys aren't viewed as being in the "franchise player" category, rightly, or wrongly. 

His BEST contract is one that doesn't quite yet look like a good one.  I think that's saying something. I'd call it adequate. And even that is rather generous - Is Jack Eichel the 12th best player in the league? That's what he's getting paid like. It's an 8 year contract, and I'd argue it's looking like he'll have been "overpaid" in 2 of them. There's a real possibility the contract has more "overpaid" years than "value" years, when all is said and done. Is that a good deal? (I AM fine with the deal, I did say that. Even if it's never a value deal, there's a reasonable chance it becomes fair value, and it's already decidedly not a detriment to Botterill's ability to do business)

I just want to wait a bit. 

But that's ok I'm just a negat1ve naaaaancyyyyyyyyy.

Edited October 22, 2019 by Thorny

[Taro T]

3 hours ago, Thorny said:

And by the same logic, his extension will prevent us from signing that player next season. See, Scandella. 

He hasn't done a "good" job managing the cap. He's just done the job. There are SO many outstanding variables it just seems pointless to judge him at this stage of the game. 

And, in fairness to him, the Seattle entry getting pushed back a year cuts back significantly on his getting credit for having brilliantly set the team up to not lose anyone of value (excepting possibly Hutton) had that draft been this off-season.  Literally, prior to the moves made this off-season (which all happened with the knowledge that Seattle delayed) the Sabres would've been at risk of losing ~ their 11th best F or their 7th best D-man.

(The mention of Scandella who'd likely be an UFA this off-season and thus not exposable though he could have had a deal worked out with him to sign after the expansion draft was the trigger for this comment.)

Now, the gears have been changed to accept that they'll lose a useful player but have enough depth that that player should be expendable.  IMHO, that is one thing he's navigated very well to date.

[Thorny]

3 minutes ago, Taro T said:

And, in fairness to him, the Seattle entry getting pushed back a year cuts back significantly on his getting credit for having brilliantly set the team up to not lose anyone of value (excepting possibly Hutton) had that draft been this off-season.  Literally, prior to the moves made this off-season (which all happened with the knowledge that Seattle delayed) the Sabres would've been at risk of losing ~ their 11th best F or their 7th best D-man.

(The mention of Scandella who'd likely be an UFA this off-season and thus not exposable though he could have had a deal worked out with him to sign after the expansion draft was the trigger for this comment.)

Now, the gears have been changed to accept that they'll lose a useful player but have enough depth that that player should be expendable.  IMHO, that is one thing he's navigated very well to date.

Isn't that just a case of congratulating him for having a roster so bad we didn't have enough players to protect? We've joined the ranks of basically every other team, likely to lose a reasonably good player to expansion rather than William Carrier. 

Edited October 22, 2019 by Thorny

[dudacek]

I just get the sense that J Bott fully understands the system upon which the NHL operates, what he needs to anticipate within that system, and what are the low-risk, high-reward plays. He’s making his moves based on well-considered principles.

It’s why I appreciate what he has done so far with contracts: it demonstrates foresight and adherence to certain principles.

[Thorny]

Just now, dudacek said:

I just get the sense that J Bott fully understands the system upon which the NHL operates, what he needs to anticipate within that system, and what are the low-risk, high-reward plays. He’s making his moves based on well-considered principles.

It’s why I appreciate what he has done so far with contracts: it demonstrates foresight and adherence to certain principles.

His foresight was suffering a bit of blockage then when he inked Sam.