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Randall Flagg

Highest Scoring Defensemen in 2019-20

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41 minutes ago, Randall Flagg said:

The guy named Dom with the long last name just used a model of his to predict defensemen point totals for next year, these were his results: 
scoring.thumb.jpg.ce3d5a1a64f0f3a8d6299e0d8699aa23.jpg

Analytics math: 10+39=48. 

(Yeah, it's due to rounding, but still it's fun(ny) when 1+1=3. 😉 )


Also, sure do hope that 3 of those 5 games Subban misses are against the Sabres. 😉

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41 minutes ago, dudacek said:

I’d like to have more information about the portability of analytics; ie, how constant are they from situation to situation when a player switches to a new coach, or a new team?

For example, Randall expects Barrie’s points to climb because he is in a “better” situation in Toronto. Can we make similar suppositions about analytics? 

Its my understanding that analytics like Corsi and WOWY measure not how “good” a player is, but how effective his team was while he was being used in the situations he was being used in. Therefore, I am expecting Colin Miller to have worse analytics as a 2nd pairing guy in Buffalo than he did as a 3rd pairing guy in Vegas.

Can anyone expand on that for me?

This doesn't fully answer your question, but here is how he describes what went into those projections: 

My projections are built using the last three seasons of each player’s career on a per-minute basis, weighted by recency using a multi-variate regression, regressed to the mean based on sample size, and age adjusted. To account for the sudden increase in scoring two seasons ago, point projections were also adjusted to last season’s goals-per-game level.

Those per-minute projections for each stat are then applied to a time-on-ice projection based on each player’s ice-time last season, adjusted for their likely place on the depth chart this season. That means that a player moving from the second line to the first line would see a bump in ice-time equal to the difference between a first and second line player. The adjustments were based on expected depth charts that were derived from conversations with a beat writer from each team.

This year I’ve introduced future projections, up until 2025 in the dynasty package. How this is accomplished is through an age curve applied to time-on-ice, goals, assists and shots in each subsequent season. Keep in mind that the farther into the future a projection goes, the larger the margin of error is.

 

So it appears he doesn't take into account the fact that Tyson is now behind Toronto's forwards rather than Colorado's, just that he might get more ice time. 

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These models are always going to under predict Dahlin because he doesn't have many players to age adjust too. The idea that he will only get 4 more points this season, seems low. 

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5 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

These models are always going to under predict Dahlin because he doesn't have many players to age adjust too. The idea that he will only get 4 more points this season, seems low. 

Care to elaborate?

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33 minutes ago, Thorny said:

Care to elaborate?

A lot of these models use age adjusted scoring, percentile, and regression from what I can tell. They also factor in your previous scoring.

Dahlin is an outlier. He's very young and he scored outside of everyone else at that age with the exception of 3 guys from decades ago. The model will have a hard time because his age curve is different and he's in the top 99th percentile so it will undervalue him or should. 

Granted maybe I don't understand fully how they are doing this. If so I'd love someone to talk about it. 

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On ‎9‎/‎3‎/‎2019 at 1:26 PM, GASabresIUFAN said:

Barrie’s career high is 59 pts, that’s a huge jump for an established player.  Also Hedman has been going the other way the last 2 seasons after hitting a career high 72 3 years ago.  He’s gone 63 then 54 last year.

I also expect Dahlin to make a hug jump this year as he takes over the 1st power play.  55 is very reasonable but I think we’ll see 60+ if our team is at least decent.

Hug jumps were outlawed years ago. You're showing your age.

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2 hours ago, grinreaper said:

Hug jumps were outlawed years ago. You're showing your age.

I thought that was just in Kentucky.

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