Forward Next Year - Casey Mittelstadt

[LGR4GM]

I'd rather have Erod than Vesey

[Thorny]

I'd rather have Pominville than Vesey. 

[GASabresIUFAN]

16 minutes ago, Thorny said:

There's a tidal wave of demand to soften what was a firm expectation for Botterill to improve the centre ice position over the summer, so I'm always glad to read the selection in bold. It's still the bar by which Botterill should be judged for this off-season, in my view. 

Jbot is going to judged on wins and loses not who is playing 2C. Whomever is playing 2C will only matter if the team fails again.  If Casey goes 15-25 and the team earns 90 points there will be almost zero complaints about Casey or Jbot except from the Jbot hater crowd.   In fact most of the comments will be how glad people are that Casey made good progress in year 2.  

[Thorny]

9 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Jbot is going to judged on wins and loses not who is playing 2C. Whomever is playing 2C will only matter if the team fails again.  If Casey goes 15-25 and the team earns 90 points there will be almost zero complaints about Casey or Jbot except from the Jbot hater crowd.   In fact most of the comments will be how glad people are that Casey made good progress in year 2.  

Well, ya. Of course we’ll judge the season by what actually happens during the season. But people are going to evaluate how they think the offseason went before that time comes, that’s just the way it goes. 

I don’t think Mittelstadt has much of a chance at all of succeeding in that role this year, and 40 points being buoyed up by Reinhart combined with below average defensive play isn’t justification for not improving it if we miss the playoffs again. And that doesn’t make me a “hater”. 

That’s my view. 

Edited August 22, 2019 by Thorny

[Derrico]

On 8/21/2019 at 1:51 PM, Zamboni said:

Not worried in the least about Mitts one year in the books in a professional league. He’ll take developmental steps every year. 

Yep.  Same as Reinhart.

[Randall Flagg]

43 minutes ago, Thorny said:

Well, ya. Of course we’ll judge the season by what actually happens during the season. But people are going to evaluate how they think the offseason went before that time comes, that’s just the way it goes. 

I don’t think Mittelstadt has much of a chance at all of succeeding in that role this year, and 40 points being buoyed up by Reinhart combined with below average defensive play isn’t justification for not improving it if we miss the playoffs again. And that doesn’t make me a “hater”. 

That’s my view. 

And your zoning in on the center spine is exactly right as far as what we can know about this current roster and its flaws. 

There was no weaker area on this Sabre team than its centers behind Jack, and I've put forth the argument that no team had a worse situation behind their 1C than we did. 

How we handled that spot going into the offseason was always going to say more about next year's team than most other realistic avenues of roster moves.

[Taro T]

2 hours ago, PerreaultForever said:

I'm not really disagreeing with this but there is one thing I want to add. I questioned JBot's decision to have Casey as 2C last year but for now have to give him the benefit of a doubt that he knows more about his personality than I do. Some players/people need nurturing, pats on the back, small victories (success at a lower level), lots of teaching to grow and succeed. Others have a fire to succeed that fuels them and they grow faster when they are challenged, when they fail, when they don't meet their own personal expectations. They set their own bar high and work harder when they don't meet it. Maybe JBot believes Casey is the second kind of person. Maybe he's right?  

I think it's worth a shot though with Casey at 2C and if it fails early they can switch him and Johanson maybe or rearrange things to go with what works.

I like E-Rod as a utility player, but there is no way he's a 2C either. Ideally, I like E-Rod on the 4th line with Girgs and Larsson but we're nowhere near good enough up front for that unless somehow Kyle regains his game under Kreuger. Miracles can happen (?)

Regardless of whether Mittelstadt is the type that reacts best to a carrot, a kick in the bippy, or a solid explanation of why he is asked to do things the way he's been asked to do them will not in any way make a difference in how / if he could succeed as a 2C this year unless he has gained SIGNIFICANT strength and a much better understanding of how to play in his own end against top tier NHLers.

Completely agree that Rodrigues is NOT an ideal choice at 2C but he is a very smart player with good (not great) speed that doesn't play as small as he actually is (unlike Sheary) and can use those hockey smarts to get by in his own end.  I expect that the Sabres would be better if Johansson could go back to playing C rather than having E-Rod there, but it doesn't sound like that is on their plans and with the debacle of the Leino is a C experiment still free enough in the mind, would give E-Rod 1st crack at that role (w/ caveat no other F moves have been made).

And, simply because I don't want to see him "demoted" to 3C and REALLY expect him to still not be ready for 2C duty, would prefer he start at 3C and get the "promotion" if nothing else has worked.  I REALLY don't like the idea of settings people up to fail; and (though very much hope the expectation is wrong) fully expect him to be failing out of the gate at 2C.

And also, really do expect him to have a good year starting at 3C.  (Expect points for to be reasonable for a 3C regardless of which spot he plays, but don't expect the disaster he'll be in his own end as 2C to happen should he be 3C.)

[Taro T]

1 hour ago, Thorny said:

There's a tidal wave of demand to soften what was a firm expectation for Botterill to improve the centre ice position over the summer, so I'm always glad to read the selection in bold. It's still the bar by which Botterill should be judged for this off-season, in my view. 

True.  But if Botterill &/ or Krueger can find a reasonable 2 C not named Casey, the C spine improves dramatically as they now have IMHO a good 1C, 3C, & 4C.

Which is why at least getting more support for Rodrigues or Johansson as the 2C is so critical.

Having 4 lines that can at least be adequate in their roles will go a long way toward making the season successful.

[dudacek]

1 hour ago, Thorny said:

There's a tidal wave of demand to soften what was a firm expectation for Botterill to improve the centre ice position over the summer, so I'm always glad to read the selection in bold. It's still the bar by which Botterill should be judged for this off-season, in my view. 

It’s interesting to look at the centres moved this off-season.

Not sure could have had Kadri. We might have been able to substitute Risto for Barrie, but we didn’t really have a Kerfoot to trade.

We could have matched the price the Canucks paid for JT Miller. I’m glad we didn’t.

Soderberg for a 3rd? Haula for a B prospect? Shaw for a 2nd and 3rd? Anisimov for Zack Smith?

 

1 hour ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Jbot is going to judged on wins and loses not who is playing 2C. Whomever is playing 2C will only matter if the team fails again.  If Casey goes 15-25 and the team earns 90 points there will be almost zero complaints about Casey or Jbot except from the Jbot hater crowd.   In fact most of the comments will be how glad people are that Casey made good progress in year 2.  

If we succeed with Casey as 2C, JBott was lucky, not good.

And I won’t complain at all.

 

1 hour ago, Thorny said:

I'd rather have Pominville than Vesey. 

Damn, there are a lot of people on here who want to be wrong about Vesey.

What will it take? 25 goals? I feel strangely confident he can get that playing with Jack and a firmly believe he was acquired with the intention of giving him that chance.

[dudacek]

16 minutes ago, Taro T said:

Regardless of whether Mittelstadt is the type that reacts best to a carrot, a kick in the bippy, or a solid explanation of why he is asked to do things the way he's been asked to do them will not in any way make a difference in how / if he could succeed as a 2C this year unless he has gained SIGNIFICANT strength and a much better understanding of how to play in his own end against top tier NHLers.

Completely agree that Rodrigues is NOT an ideal choice at 2C but he is a very smart player with good (not great) speed that doesn't play as small as he actually is (unlike Sheary) and can use those hockey smarts to get by in his own end.  I expect that the Sabres would be better if Johansson could go back to playing C rather than having E-Rod there, but it doesn't sound like that is on their plans and with the debacle of the Leino is a C experiment still free enough in the mind, would give E-Rod 1st crack at that role (w/ caveat no other F moves have been made).

And, simply because I don't want to see him "demoted" to 3C and REALLY expect him to still not be ready for 2C duty, would prefer he start at 3C and get the "promotion" if nothing else has worked.  I REALLY don't like the idea of settings people up to fail; and (though very much hope the expectation is wrong) fully expect him to be failing out of the gate at 2C.

And also, really do expect him to have a good year starting at 3C.  (Expect points for to be reasonable for a 3C regardless of which spot he plays, but don't expect the disaster he'll be in his own end as 2C to happen should he be 3C.)

I think his best chance of succeeding is playing with Reinhart mostly against 3rd pairs and away from Stamkos Point Matthews Tavares Trochek Barkov. It can be done,  but it puts a lot of weight on Larsson.

[Taro T]

1 minute ago, dudacek said:

I think his best chance of succeeding is playing with Reinhart mostly against 3rd pairs and away from Stamkos Point Matthews Tavares Trochek Barkov. It can be done,  but it puts a lot of weight on Larsson.

How does that happen away from the friendly confines of the MMArena?

[dudacek]

5 minutes ago, Taro T said:

How does that happen away from the friendly confines of the MMArena?

I think you either juggle the lineup in those matches, or grit your teeth for 15-20 games a year and do your best to make sure your shutdown D are always out with Casey.

Which brings up another question better suited for the lineup thread: if Risto goes, who the hell are going to be our shutdown D?

[Taro T]

1 minute ago, dudacek said:

I think you either juggle the lineup in those matches, or grit your teeth for 15-20 games a year and do your best to make sure your shutdown D are always out with Casey.

Which brings up another question better suited for the lineup thread: if Risto goes, who the hell are going to be our shutdown D?

Guess would be McCabe & Montour.  Not really sure that Buffalo will have a pair of them for the foreseeable future until / unless Dahlin can grow into 1.  (Then it would be McCabe/Dahlin.)

[dudacek]

3 minutes ago, Taro T said:

Guess would be McCabe & Montour.  Not really sure that Buffalo will have a pair of them for the foreseeable future until / unless Dahlin can grow into 1.  (Then it would be McCabe/Dahlin.)

Samuelsson and Johnson are ticketed for that role eventually, but they are a long way off.

And @WildCard‘s Dahlin/Jokiharju might be a Hjalmarsson/Keith level duo at one point.

But this year, according to the rumour mill, we could conceivably ice a lineup of Dahlin/Montour, Gardiner/Miller, Pilut/Jokiharju at some point. Talk about feet over brawn.

[Taro T]

16 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Samuelsson and Johnson are ticketed for that role eventually, but they are a long way off.

And @WildCard‘s Dahlin/Jokiharju might be a Hjalmarsson/Keith level duo at one point.

But this year, according to the rumour mill, we could conceivably ice a lineup of Dahlin/Montour, Gardiner/Miller, Pilut/Jokiharju at some point. Talk about feet over brawn.

At which point the "shutdown" pair becomes Dahlin/Montour if you want to have the youth burned learning by fire or Gardiner/Montour if you want your burns coming at the feet of your veterans.

[LGR4GM]

58 minutes ago, dudacek said:

It’s interesting to look at the centres moved this off-season.

Not sure could have had Kadri. We might have been able to substitute Risto for Barrie, but we didn’t really have a Kerfoot to trade.

We could have matched the price the Canucks paid for JT Miller. I’m glad we didn’t.

Soderberg for a 3rd? Haula for a B prospect? Shaw for a 2nd and 3rd? Anisimov for Zack Smith?

 

If we succeed with Casey as 2C, JBott was lucky, not good.

And I won’t complain at all.

 

Damn, there are a lot of people on here who want to be wrong about Vesey.

What will it take? 25 goals? I feel strangely confident he can get that playing with Jack and a firmly believe he was acquired with the intention of giving him that chance.

I think he's good for 20-25 goals. I don't think he's a 1st line player and I don't think he can hit 35 goals.

[Zamboni]

1 hour ago, LGR4GM said:

I think he's good for 20-25 goals. I don't think he's a 1st line player and I don't think he can hit 35 goals.

I agree. If it’s the Triple J line, a nice productive year (strictly speaking goals) would be Jeff at 35, Jack at 45, and Jimmy at 25. Anything north of that would be a welcome bonus. 

[Thorny]

3 hours ago, Taro T said:

True.  But if Botterill &/ or Krueger can find a reasonable 2 C not named Casey, the C spine improves dramatically as they now have IMHO a good 1C, 3C, & 4C.

Which is why at least getting more support for Rodrigues or Johansson as the 2C is so critical.

Having 4 lines that can at least be adequate in their roles will go a long way toward making the season successful.

I'm not sure Rodrigues has much better of a chance of success at that spot than Mitts. Johansson maybe if he was still a C but doesn't seem that's the case. 

3 hours ago, dudacek said:

It’s interesting to look at the centres moved this off-season.

Not sure could have had Kadri. We might have been able to substitute Risto for Barrie, but we didn’t really have a Kerfoot to trade.

We could have matched the price the Canucks paid for JT Miller. I’m glad we didn’t.

Soderberg for a 3rd? Haula for a B prospect? Shaw for a 2nd and 3rd? Anisimov for Zack Smith?

 

If we succeed with Casey as 2C, JBott was lucky, not good.

And I won’t complain at all.

 

Damn, there are a lot of people on here who want to be wrong about Vesey.

What will it take? 25 goals? I feel strangely confident he can get that playing with Jack and a firmly believe he was acquired with the intention of giving him that chance.ing

Looking at who the Cs were that moved is definitely interesting, but not being "in the room" with Botterill, we have no idea who could have been had league wide or for what, so I can only comment on the holes that need to be filled and whether or not they were. 

All the underlying metrics say Pominville was better than Vesey last year. He's a better option next to Eichel than Vesey is, and we paid an asset to get Vesey. Vesey isn't good at hockey, it's not about wanting to be wrong or whatever. Vesey can go score 25 goals and it's not going to represent much if he's costing that line a ton on the defensive end, which he will. 

3 hours ago, dudacek said:

I think his best chance of succeeding is playing with Reinhart mostly against 3rd pairs and away from Stamkos Point Matthews Tavares Trochek Barkov. It can be done,  but it puts a lot of weight on Larsson.

What gives Casey the best chance of success is important but it's secondary to what gives the team the best chance of success. And that's not Mittelstadt at 2C. 

Edited August 23, 2019 by Thorny

[Thorny]

2 hours ago, dudacek said:

I think you either juggle the lineup in those matches, or grit your teeth for 15-20 games a year and do your best to make sure your shutdown D are always out with Casey.

Which brings up another question better suited for the lineup thread: if Risto goes, who the hell are going to be our shutdown D?

Who's going to be our shutdown D if Risto is still here? Same answer either way. Maybe not in theory but in practice. 

Edited August 23, 2019 by Thorny

[Andrew Amerk]

7 minutes ago, Thorny said:

 

All the underlying metrics say Pominville was better than Vesey last year. He's a better option next to Eichel than Vesey is, and we paid an asset to get Vesey. Vesey isn't good at hockey, it's not about wanting to be wrong or whatever. 

 

Yeah, until Pommers runs of out gas after 10-12 games of playing top line minutes. 

[Thorny]

8 minutes ago, Andrew Amerk said:

Yeah, until Pommers runs of out gas after 10-12 games of playing top line minutes. 

His offence would likely begin to drop off as the season wears on, but not so much as to offset the improved defensive play over Vesey who is a defensive black hole. I don't really want him on the top line giving back a ton of the offence Eichel and Skinner are generating. 

Most NHL players are going to be able to pad their goal total playing next to a 10 million dollar player and a 9 million dollar player, but to me that doesn't mean much if he's dragging them down in the process. 

Edited August 23, 2019 by Thorny

[dudacek]

5 minutes ago, Thorny said:

I'm not sure Rodrigues has much better of a chance of success at that spot than Mitts. Johansson maybe if he was still a C but doesn't seem that's the case. 

Looking at who the Cs were that moved is definitely interesting, but not being "in the room" with Botterill, we have no idea who could have been had league wide or for what, so I can only comment on the holes that need to be filled and whether or not they were. 

All the underlying metrics say Pominville was better than Vesey last year. He's a better option next to Eichel than Vesey is, and we paid an asset to get Vesey. Vesey isn't good at hockey, it's not about wanting to be wrong or whatever. 

What gives Casey the best chance of success is important but it's secondary to what gives the team the best chance of success. And that's not Mittelstadt at 2C. 

How could you not want to be wrong about Vesey? You’ve been one of his strongest critics.

What were Pominville’s metrics away from Jack? How has Vesey done with franchise centres?

I haven’t seen Vesey enough to have an opinion on how good he is. I know his analytics are bad but I don’t know their context. I know he can score even strength goals with crappy linemates, so I have some mild hope he will be better than Pominville, who could only score with Jack. 

Pominville was the definition of replacement level player last year. He had to be replaced, although personally I think his replacement will be Olofsson. I see Vesey as a challenge to Thompson and Sheary.

[Thorny]

4 minutes ago, dudacek said:

How could you not want to be wrong about Vesey? You’ve been one of his strongest critics.

What were Pominville’s metrics away from Jack? How has Vesey done with franchise centres?

I haven’t seen Vesey enough to have an opinion on how good he is. I know his analytics are bad but I don’t know their context. I know he can score even strength goals with crappy linemates, so I have some mild hope he will be better than Pominville, who could only score with Jack. 

Pominville was the definition of replacement level player last year. He had to be replaced, although personally I think his replacement will be Olofsson. I see Vesey as a challenge to Thompson and Sheary.

Oh I'd definitely love that, didn't mean to/shouldn't have implied otherwise. 

Jack isn't going to improve Vesey's defence, and playing against top competition from other teams certainly isn't going to, either. That line needs a defensively responsible winger on the right, and that's not Jimmy. 

Maybe Kase really is the guy we want there. 

Edited August 23, 2019 by Thorny

[dudacek]

1 minute ago, Thorny said:

Oh I'd definitely love that, didn't mean to/shouldn't have implied otherwise. 

Jack isn't going to improve Vesey's defence, and playing against other team's best defensive lines certainly isn't go to, either. 

Skinner looked better on defence than his critics said he was in Carolina.

Or maybe his defence was the same, it’s just that the 16 additional goals made the charts look better.

[Thorny]

4 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Skinner looked better on defence than his critics said he was in Carolina.

Or maybe his defence was the same, it’s just that the 16 additional goals made the charts look better.

He's not close to the defensive nightmare Vesey is though. I don't want a top line winger to be a guy we are constantly trying to mask with the rest of the line due to their flaws. It's one thing to expect Eichel to be Crosby, it's another to give him worse wingers than Crosby plays with. Maybe Vesey scores 25 stapled to that line, but it's going to be the other 2/3rds of that line dragging him around. 

As for Olofsson replacing Pominville, like in a general sense? Or you think he gets a shot on the top line? I'm still not convinced we'll see him tried at RW. 

Edited August 23, 2019 by Thorny