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Brawndo

Sabres Trade Alex Nylander to Chicago for D Man Henri Jokiharju

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10 minutes ago, rakish said:

Where was Nylander during the prospects camp?

After attending three prospects camps, it becomes optional. He took that option.

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Just now, Brawndo said:

After attending three prospects camps, it becomes optional. He took that option.

Why wasn't Mittelstadt there? Unless of course he was

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2 minutes ago, Brawndo said:

After attending three prospects camps, it becomes optional. He took that option.

I think he took a slow boat to Chicago. 

1 minute ago, WildCard said:

Why wasn't Mittelstadt there? Unless of course he was

He had played enough NHL games? Maybe? I mean Thompson was there so maybe that isn't it. 

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1 hour ago, ... said:

Explain the significance of the difference between 68 minutes TOI versus 884 minutes TOI.  I'll hang up and listen.

Since this wasn't answered, yet, I will answer it.

Quote

Above, we can see that players who play less than ~100-150 EV minutes are being “regressed” to the mean (0 for each regression) – this is the regularization pulling these players towards the mean. Not only does this help to deal with multicollinearity (to an extent), it also adds a “quasi-Bayesian” aspect to the player ratings. In other words, if a player has very few shifts in the data, they are brought closer to the league mean using a Gaussian “prior” distribution. In an OLS regression, these players would have wildly inflated per 60 ratings.

So, the 68 minute RAPM is skewed, possibly making Mitts look better.

And since I'm here, let's also note this about the RAPM charts we all know and love:

Quote

So let’s summarize what the RAPM coefficients are. They are offensive and defensive ratings for each player that are isolated from the other skaters they played with, the other skaters they played against, the score state,  the effects of playing at home or on the road, the effects of playing in back-to-back games, and the effects of being on the ice for a shift that had a faceoff in the offensive or defensive zone.

 

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34 minutes ago, rakish said:

Where was Nylander during the prospects camp?

 

22 minutes ago, Brawndo said:

After attending three prospects camps, it becomes optional. He took that option.

I can't help but think that not showing up pushed this trade ahead. He didn't think it was important enough to show and they then thought he wasn't worth the bother either.

Edited by jsb
spelling errors and adding a quote

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6 minutes ago, triumph_communes said:

https://arxiv.org/pdf/1006.4310.pdf

 

Pages 34-37

A snippet:  

i.e., when a player spends the majority of his time with another skater, the player's stats become indistinguishable from each other.

 

Casey spent all year with Okposo and in limited time with Thompson, and Thompson otherwise spent his year with Sobotka outside a few games.  As a result, their charts are going to mimic those players to a large degree, a digression explicity noted by the creator of the statistics.

 

The terms in the regression are built off of a massive dataset, so the error by smaller minutes played put into the model is relatively low.

If this is what you think, then you really have no clue how this model was created.  Read the links above.

 

 

We might be talking past each other. I don't think you're drawing the proper inference from what the authors are saying with respect to how it would apply to Casey's numbers and my comment about using a 68 minute subsample to evaluate him, or you're misinterpreting what I was getting at. The Sedins have a ton of error when trying to isolate because they spend 90% of their ice time together, so there isn't enough time apart to do the work with any accuracy. That all makes sense, but it's not what I was arguing about.

You presented a 68 minute subsample of Casey's career under the pretense that it was a better representation of his on-ice impact than the full sample, because the full sample includes so much time with Okposo that he's statistically indistinguishable from Okposo. I disagree with that because, as others have noted, the majority of his ice time has come with players not named Okposo. So I don't think that introduced the same collinearity problem of the Sedins. It's also worth noting that about 30% of his ice time in 2017-18 was spent with Okposo. Or, only about 7 points less than in 2018-19. If the model screwed him because of his time with Okposo, one would think it would've happened both seasons. 

Which brings me to my larger point, which I was trying to argue in the first place. Mittelstadt has 952 minutes of ice time at even strength. You're trying to draw conclusions with 7.1% of that, while chucking the rest of the data because of Okposo, when Okposo was relevant to less than 40% of it (a huge difference from the Sedins' 90%+ shared ice time). That's weak, both statistically and theoretically. There is no way you're going to statistically distinguish that small of a subsample from the rest of his ice time with any confidence that the difference in results was anything other than happenstance. 

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3 minutes ago, TrueBlueGED said:

Which brings me to my larger point, which I was trying to argue in the first place. Mittelstadt has 952 minutes of ice time at even strength. You're trying to draw conclusions with 7.1% of that, while chucking the rest of the data because of Okposo, when Okposo was relevant to less than 40% of it (a huge difference from the Sedins' 90%+ shared ice time). That's weak, both statistically and theoretically. There is no way you're going to statistically distinguish that small of a subsample from the rest of his ice time with any confidence that the difference in results was anything other than happenstance. 

You forgot to mention the Gaussian “white-noise”.  I'm disappointed.

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Just now, ... said:

You forgot to mention the Gaussian “white-noise”.  I'm disappointed.

Thought that was only in X-Ray and photography... ah the image is slowly coming into focus.. 

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17 minutes ago, TrueBlueGED said:

We might be talking past each other. I don't think you're drawing the proper inference from what the authors are saying with respect to how it would apply to Casey's numbers and my comment about using a 68 minute subsample to evaluate him, or you're misinterpreting what I was getting at. The Sedins have a ton of error when trying to isolate because they spend 90% of their ice time together, so there isn't enough time apart to do the work with any accuracy. That all makes sense, but it's not what I was arguing about.

You presented a 68 minute subsample of Casey's career under the pretense that it was a better representation of his on-ice impact than the full sample, because the full sample includes so much time with Okposo that he's statistically indistinguishable from Okposo. I disagree with that because, as others have noted, the majority of his ice time has come with players not named Okposo. So I don't think that introduced the same collinearity problem of the Sedins. It's also worth noting that about 30% of his ice time in 2017-18 was spent with Okposo. Or, only about 7 points less than in 2018-19. If the model screwed him because of his time with Okposo, one would think it would've happened both seasons. 

 Which brings me to my larger point, which I was trying to argue in the first place. Mittelstadt has 952 minutes of ice time at even strength. You're trying to draw conclusions with 7.1% of that, while chucking the rest of the data because of Okposo, when Okposo was relevant to less than 40% of it (a huge difference from the Sedins' 90%+ shared ice time). That's weak, both statistically and theoretically. There is no way you're going to statistically distinguish that small of a subsample from the rest of his ice time with any confidence that the difference in results was anything other than happenstance. 

Okposo+Thompson, similar drags

 

The collinearity tries to correct for individual players, but it obviously can't without data outside of it.  The lowest errors for all these models happens for players who played for multiple teams.  When looking at a teenage prospect who has had limited opportunities, you have to take it with a huge grain of salt.  When you have Mittelstadt with less than 200 minutes with a replacement level player, it doesn't matter if there's 900+ minutes of data on it, he's never had a chance to do anything but be dragged.

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5 minutes ago, triumph_communes said:

Okposo+Thompson, similar drags

 

The collinearity tries to correct for individual players, but it obviously can't without data outside of it.  The lowest errors for all these models happens for players who played for multiple teams.  When looking at a teenage prospect who has had limited opportunities, you have to take it with a huge grain of salt.  When you have Mittelstadt with less than 200 minutes with a replacement level player, it doesn't matter if there's 900+ minutes of data on it, he's never had a chance to do anything but be dragged.

But he has, and he's been a drag on those players. He had 426 minutes with Sheary, 162 with Rodrigues, 152 with Reinhart, and 119 with Skinner. All of them had worse corsi, goals, and xG while skating with Mittelstadt. Obviously some of that is Skinner and Reinhart got to skate with Jack, but neither Rodrigues nor Sheary spent so much time with Jack as to pump their numbers much. 

Again, like with Thompson and Sobotka, these things are not mutually exclusive. Okposo can be a drag and Casey can be bad in his own right. After all, a team doesn't finish 5th from the basement if they only have 1 or 2 problem players. 

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9 minutes ago, That Aud Smell said:

confused the big lebowski GIF

Short version, in English: Triumph blames Mittelstadt's performance on everyone but Mittelstadt. I think he stunk last year in his own right. 

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Just now, TrueBlueGED said:

Short version, in English: Triumph blames Mittelstadt's performance on everyone but Mittelstadt. I think he stunk last year in his own right. 

12 goals for a teen, not to bad to me 

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1 minute ago, bob_sauve28 said:

12 goals for a teen, not to bad to me 

If he were a 4C.

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6 minutes ago, TrueBlueGED said:

Short version, in English: Triumph blames Mittelstadt's performance on everyone but Mittelstadt. I think he stunk last year in his own right. 

He plays like someone who can’t complete a pull-up.  It’s obvious.  He is weak on the puck.

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5 minutes ago, Cascade Youth said:

He plays like someone who can’t complete a pull-up.  It’s obvious.  He is weak on the puck.

FIRE BOTTERILL!!

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19 minutes ago, TrueBlueGED said:

Short version, in English: Triumph blames Mittelstadt's performance on everyone but Mittelstadt. I think he stunk last year in his own right. 

yeah. well, it's, like, the collinearity, man.

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25 minutes ago, ... said:

If he were a 4C.

Some of you really overrate how much a 4C should score. 

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32 minutes ago, bob_sauve28 said:

12 goals for a teen, not to bad to me 

He had only 15 points at even strength.  Less than Girgensons or Okposo.

Edited by Curt

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29 minutes ago, ... said:

FIRE BOTTERILL!!

Makes me laugh every time!

 

Thanks Ho for starting the whole thing!

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I've come around on Mitrs. His numbers were what I expected but his underlying metrics are awful. He needs a big push this year or we're in trouble with him. You can't be a tire fire and get caved in like that and be a useful NHL player 

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11 minutes ago, woods-racer said:

Makes me laugh every time!

 

Thanks Ho for starting the whole thing!

With all due respect to @Ho-Chi-Sock, that meme goes waaaayyyy back.

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48 minutes ago, PASabreFan said:

@New Scotland (NS) are you thinking what I'm thinking? (If so, I will be freaked out.)

 

 

Are you asking if he thinks Kim Pegula made the trade?

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3 hours ago, woods-racer said:

So in a nut shell. 

This past year the Sabres where a mix of players ( predominately the middle six) that had the worst possible impact on each other when on the same line.

Even scuffling them just mixed the bad mix for the same results. The bad mix being TT and Sobs. No matter where they where in the line up they drug down their line mates.

 

So the hope is by adding even just 2 players with *average* possession and CF% numbers will greatly elevate the middle six exponentially?

Is my simple assumption of these stats an over-simplification?

 

So my extraordinarily analytics-free observation that replacing Sobotka and Thompson with Johansson and Vesey might improve the team even if Vesey sucks may actually be supported by analytics? 

I’m logging off to smile smugly for the next three hours while @Randall Flagg prepares an 11-page retort that only @TrueBlueGED will understand but will crush my argument nonetheless. 😜

Edited by dudacek
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