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2019-2020 Lineup

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1 hour ago, triumph_communes said:

 

They didn’t have to sign Ceci though. They did

True, but they did have to take him as part of the return from Ottawa. Signing him to a one year extension is a different story 

 

53 minutes ago, Broken Ankles said:

Of course Marner is prioritized.  Just saying that if he was a game changing offensive threat AND a solid defender, I would have expected Nylander to be moved to make room.  As far as the Dubas quote, you wouldn’t really expect a public statement about Jake from Dubas to be anything less than complimentary, would you?   Based on his chart alone and compared to other UFAs the last two years where do you expect his AAV/term to come in?

The private comments coming from sources to people who cover the team, including Ian Tulloch of The Athletic Toronto seem to match the public ones as there appears to be a mutual interest by both parties to get something done. 

Marner has not signed yet and it’s only the middle of July, there is still time for a Nylander Deal if needed prior to October. 

Evolving Wild has these parameters 

The Evolving Hockey’s contract projection has Gardiner at roughly a $5.7 million cap hit on a three-year deal and $6 million on a four-year deal.

Would he take a lesser deal to remain in Toronto, time will tell. 

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4 hours ago, Brawndo said:

True, but they did have to take him as part of the return from Ottawa. Signing him to a one year extension is a different story 

 

The private comments coming from sources to people who cover the team, including Ian Tulloch of The Athletic Toronto seem to match the public ones as there appears to be a mutual interest by both parties to get something done. 

Marner has not signed yet and it’s only the middle of July, there is still time for a Nylander Deal if needed prior to October. 

 Evolving Wild has these parameters 

The Evolving Hockey’s contract projection has Gardiner at roughly a $5.7 million cap hit on a three-year deal and $6 million on a four-year deal.

 Would he take a lesser deal to remain in Toronto, time will tell. 

jake.thumb.JPG.252aa42f78195da014aa17b6da4294e4.JPG

I saw this  today on the EW site for projections.  It has J.G. at 7 years/$6.8M.  They also predicted Karlsson would be $9.7M for 8.  

war.thumb.png.15fb4eb42826f71eaae4f684541ad6f3.png

The chart above is EW 2016-2019 GAR/WAR of 9 Defensemen  that signed an RFA/UFA contract in 2018 or 2019.   There are two current Sabres as well as two former Sabres.  Based on this calculation Jake should be deserving of a $9m+ AAV.   One of the reasons I'm skeptical of their WAR/GAR calculations is how incongruous the ratio of contracts/term are with MLB and their calculation of WAR.   There is no scenario where a player with roughly half the WAR of Manny  Machado would sign for 1/10th of his contract (He makes $30M AAV).  Nate' Beaulieu's three year WAR compared to EK is the equivalent of an  MLB player with a three year WAR of 7.1 signing for $3M.   Pat Corbin signed for $23M AAV over 7 years.   The next closest is AJ Pollak of the Dodgers signing a $13.75m AAV for 4 years.   

   If we believe the EW ranking for Tyler Myers and Edler earning close to $6M (or half of Karlsson) with a WAR equal to a quarter or less of Karlsson's value.  You just would never see this in MLB.  There are zero free agents signing of players  making $15m + AAV that do not possess an incredible 3 year WAR.  To me this provides probable cause for questioning the absolute nature of the WAR/GAR or Expected Goal calculations.  

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13 hours ago, Broken Ankles said:

jake.thumb.JPG.252aa42f78195da014aa17b6da4294e4.JPG

I saw this  today on the EW site for projections.  It has J.G. at 7 years/$6.8M.  They also predicted Karlsson would be $9.7M for 8.  

war.thumb.png.15fb4eb42826f71eaae4f684541ad6f3.png

The chart above is EW 2016-2019 GAR/WAR of 9 Defensemen  that signed an RFA/UFA contract in 2018 or 2019.   There are two current Sabres as well as two former Sabres.  Based on this calculation Jake should be deserving of a $9m+ AAV.   One of the reasons I'm skeptical of their WAR/GAR calculations is how incongruous the ratio of contracts/term are with MLB and their calculation of WAR.   There is no scenario where a player with roughly half the WAR of Manny  Machado would sign for 1/10th of his contract (He makes $30M AAV).  Nate' Beaulieu's three year WAR compared to EK is the equivalent of an  MLB player with a three year WAR of 7.1 signing for $3M.   Pat Corbin signed for $23M AAV over 7 years.   The next closest is AJ Pollak of the Dodgers signing a $13.75m AAV for 4 years.   

   If we believe the EW ranking for Tyler Myers and Edler earning close to $6M (or half of Karlsson) with a WAR equal to a quarter or less of Karlsson's value.  You just would never see this in MLB.  There are zero free agents signing of players  making $15m + AAV that do not possess an incredible 3 year WAR.  To me this provides probable cause for questioning the absolute nature of the WAR/GAR or Expected Goal calculations.  

Honest question, does the disparity of total salaries between the two leagues play a role?  Any of the Top Five Highest Paid Baseball Players Salaries would take up almost 50% of this years salary cap in the NHL. 

AJ Pollack who you cited has one All Star Appearance and a Golden Glove, makes over one million dollars more per year than Connor McDavid. 

Who would be McDavid’s Comparable in the MLB? 

Mike Trout perhaps? 

 

 

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37 minutes ago, Brawndo said:

Honest question, does the disparity of total salaries between the two leagues play a role?  Any of the Top Five Highest Paid Baseball Players Salaries would take up almost 50% of this years salary cap in the NHL. 

AJ Pollack who you cited has one All Star Appearance and a Golden Glove, makes over one million dollars more per year than Connor McDavid. 

Who would be McDavid’s Comparable in the MLB? 

Mike Trout perhaps? 

 

 

Mike Trout is far greater at baseball than McDavid is at hockey. Maybe in five years that won’t be the case for McDavid, but Mike Trout is going to end up a top five greatest baseball player of all time, barring injuries. McDavid isn’t there yet. I would say Max Scherzer. He’s absolutely dominant, takes home a bunch of awards, and he’s been the best at what he does for the past five years. But he’s not a top five greatest pitcher of all time. 

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The best case scenario is JBOT fills out the middle six via trade, allowing Mittlestadt and Thomspon to start the season in Roch where they belong.    Let them build confidence, learn how to win and build some chemistry together at least for a few months until they prove they're too good for the A.

Edited by pi2000
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31 minutes ago, pi2000 said:

The best case scenario is JBOT fills out the middle sux via trade, allowing Mittlestadt and Thomspon to start the season in Roch where they bong.    Let them build confidence, learn how to win and build some chemistry together at least for a few months until they prove they're too good for the A.

I don’t know which would be funnier, whether you meant it or not.

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1 hour ago, Brawndo said:

Honest question, does the disparity of total salaries between the two leagues play a role?  Any of the Top Five Highest Paid Baseball Players Salaries would take up almost 50% of this years salary cap in the NHL. 

AJ Pollack who you cited has one All Star Appearance and a Golden Glove, makes over one million dollars more per year than Connor McDavid. 

Who would be McDavid’s Comparable in the MLB? 

Mike Trout perhaps? 

 

 

Granted  there is an Apples to oranges comparison based on salary discrepancy but consider this: with no real salary cap, it would make it more probable than not for an MLB team to offer a large contract (I.e. Tyler Myers $6m aav) to a player with a below average WAR as there are no implications other than luxury tax penalties, verses an NHL team based on a hard cap.   But they don’t.  Significant contracts are only awarded to players who demonstrate above average WAR.  What other rationale would explain why an NHL team would spend 7-8% of their payroll on a player that by the implied nature of the calculation is unworthy of even $2m?  We could say GM ignorance, and maybe this would apply in Vancouvers case.   But using the scenario which sparked this entire debate (Jake), if the WAR calculation and all the charts created by EW are to be assumed definitive, then his contract should be within 15% of Karlsson.  Trouts contract (Whom I agree with @FreeJame is a unicorn) was only 14% more than Machado, and Mannys was 15% more than Harper.   And that is the sequence in Descending order of WAR for positional players.  If I’m to accept the proposition that the EW perception of skill is 100% valid then Gardiner needs to see a $9.5m AAV offer for at least 6 years.   If not then I thinks it’s fair to debate  how they arrive at these numbers.  I Want to re-iterate how appreciative I am for the introduction to the various sites and metrics referenced by the community.  

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1 hour ago, pi2000 said:

The best case scenario is JBOT fills out the middle sux via trade, allowing Mittlestadt and Thomspon to start the season in Roch where they bong.    Let them build confidence, learn how to win and build some chemistry together at least for a few months until they prove they're too good for the A.

Am I missing something here or do you know more about these players private lives then has otherwise been reported?

Edited by GASabresIUFAN

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1 hour ago, Brawndo said:

 

 

Right on cue 

 

Three things.

1. Continued evidence that Trout remains the best player in Baseball. 

2. Makes you wonder why anyone pitches to him.

3. Also evidence on how hard it is to get to 3000 hits.  He needs an average of 150 hits per season for the next decade or so, putting Trout at 38 or 39, just to get there.

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Oh good, SS is turning into baseball and stats.... Pretty much the most 2 boring things on the planet. 

Remember a time when we watched hockey and enjoyed it.....now metrics are starting to ruin it for me

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23 minutes ago, Wyldnwoody44 said:

Oh good, SS is turning into baseball and stats.... Pretty much the most 2 boring things on the planet. 

Remember a time when we watched hockey and enjoyed it.....now metrics are starting to ruin it for me

Sounds like you need a vacation, I hear the Amalfi Coast is wonderful this time of year.

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3 hours ago, Wyldnwoody44 said:

Oh good, SS is turning into baseball and stats.... Pretty much the most 2 boring things on the planet. 

Remember a time when we watched hockey and enjoyed it.....now metrics are starting to ruin it for me

Yeh baseball stats can't teach positioning, only that after the fact... you suck.

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14 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Three things.

1. Continued evidence that Trout remains the best player in Baseball. 

2. Makes you wonder why anyone pitches to him.

3. Also evidence on how hard it is to get to 3000 hits.  He needs an average of 150 hits per season for the next decade or so, putting Trout at 38 or 39, just to get there.

There is another sports thread for this... as Woody said... snarl... gonna need to start skating sooner than expected... so I can get on the ice and hit someone.... grrr!

Well that feels better typing the above even if I am not ready to skate.

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They got me so excited I bought  a winter classic 2018 jersey couple of days ago, always liked that one and it was on discount at the NHL store. 

Also I saw a guy at work walking around with a leafs jersey and I want to tell him to ***** off wearing mine 😄

20190715_132200[1].jpg

Edited by Huckleberry
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It's dullsville out there now.  I guess we'll have to wait for the arbitrations to finalize and the second buy out period to end until to get some movement.  All the GMs need to know how many dollars they have to work with.

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I was looking at capfriendly and they list Skinner at both LW/RW.  In fact, almost all Sabres forwards are listed with more then one forward slot except Mitts (who has played wing), Eichel, KO and Wilson.

What if we move Skinner to RW?

Olofsson Eichel Skinner

Vesey ERod Reinhart

Johansson Mitts Sheary/Thompson 

Girgensons Larsson Okposo

ex Sobotka

I moved Erod to 2C because he took almost 700 faceoffs last year and he improved his % for the 4th straight year, and his ice time jumped to almost 16 minutes per game.  Obviously this isn’t ideal, but it’s better then leaving Mitts there.  I’m playing Johansson on Mitts’ wing to add a veteran presence especially if Thompson wins the job.  I also like the idea of Vesey as the trigger man on a line with playmakers like Erod and Reinhart. 

Edited by GASabresIUFAN

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30 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

I was looking at capfriendly and they list Skinner at both LW/RW.  In fact, almost all Sabres forwards are listed with more then one forward slot except Mitts (who has played wing), Eichel, KO and Wilson.

What if we move Skinner to RW?

Olofsson Eichel Skinner

Vesey ERod Reinhart

Johansson Mitts Sheary/Thompson 

Girgensons Larsson Okposo

ex Sobotka

I moved Erod to 2C because he took almost 700 faceoffs last year and he improved his % for the 4th straight year, and his ice time jumped to almost 16 minutes per game.  Obviously this isn’t ideal, but it’s better then leaving Mitts there.  I’m playing Johansson on Mitts’ wing to add a veteran presence especially if Thompson wins the job.  I also like the idea of Vesey as the trigger man on a line with playmakers like Erod and Reinhart. 

Rodrigues would be my Plan C at 2C (behind other and Johansson) so that lineup works in a pinch.

Edited by Taro T

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30 minutes ago, WildCard said:

 

Reasonable overview of the options for the most likely next move for the Sabres to make.

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1 hour ago, WildCard said:

 

Rodrigues is listed as a LWer here, if he’s not at C he plays on the right side, no? Moving Montour to the left side in the final option would be dumb.

 

Edited by Thorny

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Interesting article, but it doesn’t say anything we haven’t discussed except maybe adding Gardiner.  

We discussed earlier in the Risto thread about including Sheary or Erod in the deal to replace the forward we get in trade for Risto.

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41 minutes ago, Thorny said:

Rodrigues is listed as a LWer here, if he’s not at C he plays on the right side, no? Moving Montour to the left side in the final option would be dumb.

 

EROD is most comfortable at LW

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6 minutes ago, tom webster said:

EROD is most comfortable at LW

Even over C?

With the surplus at LW I still think he's more likely on the right if not at C.

Edited by Thorny

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His forward lines in the status quo section might be the best I’ve seen with analytics to support the logic

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