Sam Reinhart's bridge deal and his long term outlook.

[Broken Ankles]

14 hours ago, Thorny said:

And if they are going to move Reinhart because he doesn't fit in with their system (or some other weird reason), I salivate at the return a 65 point, 24 year old former 2nd overall pick would get, if he was locked up for 6 more years at 5.5 million dollars. 

What is... a  'B level' prospect, a late first rounder, a second round pick in 2029, and two salary dumps Alex? 

[nfreeman]

10 minutes ago, dudacek said:

@nfreeman Barkov and MacKinnon are clearly on another level.

But why do you think Ehlers and Nylander are clearly better?

They were all drafted in the same year. Reinhart has more career points than either (considerably more than Nylander) and a better career high than either as well.

Nylander had 61 pts in each of his 1st 2 full NHL seasons, averaging 16:01 min and 16:41 min per game.  (His 3rd season was largely wiped out due to his holdout.)  Reino had 42, 47 and 50 pts in his first 3 NHL seasons, in about 17 min per game each year.  Nylander has more speed and produces more shots, despite playing fewer minutes.  It's a closer call than the other guys you mentioned, but I'd rather have Nylander.

The numbers comparison is similar with Ehlers -- better production in his 2nd and 3rd NHL seasons (64 and 60 pts), with more shots, on fewer minutes.  Ehlers (like most NHL forwards) also is faster than Reino.

Now, both guys almost certainly have benefited by playing with much better teams than Reino has -- but I think it's fair to say that both got off to stronger starts to their careers than Reino did, which made their GMs more comfortable with awarding fat 2nd contracts than JB did with Reino.

[StuckinFL]

I'd feel more than comfortable offering him 6.5/7 x 8, with a NTC for the first 4 years, this year right out the gate. He gets security and you get a steal of a contract by the end of the deal. If he pushes for 7+ then I get rid of a NTC for the length of the contact.

[Thorny]

On 5/30/2019 at 8:47 PM, Weave said:

A bridge deal was a hedged bet.  Protection to better assure a positive outcome.  It's low risk, but low reward.  If Sam didn't improve, it didn't cost much (relatively) and it eliminates the possibility of a bad deal.  It's also low reward because if Sam did perform (which he did), his next contract is full market value.  No discount.

Sam's deal suggests to me that Jason Botteril is risk averse.  Explains his preference for college prospects too.  I'm  not sure that is a champion's trait, unfortunately.  But it is safe one.

Perfectly stated. 

[Thorny]

14 hours ago, dudacek said:

@nfreeman Barkov and MacKinnon are clearly on another level.

But why do you think Ehlers and Nylander are clearly better?

They were all drafted in the same year. Reinhart has more career points than either (considerably more than Nylander) and a better career high than either as well.

Watching them both play a lot, Reinhart is better than Ehlers. 

[mjd1001]

10 hours ago, Thorny said:

Watching them both play a lot, Reinhart is better than Ehlers. 

So far from what I have seen of Nylander....he is not worth what he is getting paid.  He has skill, and when you put a player with skill on a top line with another great player, they will put up numbers.  I'd like to see Nylander for a full year on a team where he is 'the man', I don't think he'd fare too well.

As far as Reinhart, up until this year I wasn't impressed with him as much as many others on this forum....he seemed like he could only produce on the Powerplay.  This year though was the first time in his career he significantly raised his production even strength.

[7+6=13]

IMO, signing Reinhart to 7 - 7.5 mil per would be a mistake.  I wouldn't do it.  

I know that's an unpopular opinion at the moment with Kane and O'Reilly just leaving - but he's not the type of player that I want at those numbers.  Paying him just because we're sore about losing talent is not a reason.  I realize folks have other reasons but I just don't like his game enough. 

[Zamboni]

9 hours ago, 7+6=13 said:

IMO, signing Reinhart to 7 - 7.5 mil per would be a mistake.  I wouldn't do it.  

I know that's an unpopular opinion at the moment with Kane and O'Reilly just leaving - but he's not the type of player that I want at those numbers.  Paying him just because we're sore about losing talent is not a reason.  I realize folks have other reasons but I just don't like his game enough. 

It’s hard to appreciate the game of players when one only puck watches. And is only impressed with dipsy doodles, fast skating and sick deeks.

Not saying that’s you.... it’s just something I’ve noticed with some fans who dislike Reinhart and players like him.

[mjd1001]

10 hours ago, 7+6=13 said:

IMO, signing Reinhart to 7 - 7.5 mil per would be a mistake.  I wouldn't do it.  

I know that's an unpopular opinion at the moment with Kane and O'Reilly just leaving - but he's not the type of player that I want at those numbers.  Paying him just because we're sore about losing talent is not a reason.  I realize folks have other reasons but I just don't like his game enough. 

I think I'm with you on this, but its a good thing we can look forward to watching him this year again.

In the past, my biggest criticisms of him were he didn't produce many goals/points at even strength, and he didn't bring much else to the game unless he was putting up points.  This past season, he did a LOT better even strength.  I still don't think hes a good player in the D-zone..or in transition...or someone the other team has to gameplan around..BUT..if he can put up the same (or slightly better) even strength numbers this year as he did last year..I'd be open to a long term deal around $7m because of his age.

[7+6=13]

19 hours ago, mjd1001 said:

I think I'm with you on this, but its a good thing we can look forward to watching him this year again.

In the past, my biggest criticisms of him were he didn't produce many goals/points at even strength, and he didn't bring much else to the game unless he was putting up points.  This past season, he did a LOT better even strength.  I still don't think hes a good player in the D-zone..or in transition...or someone the other team has to gameplan around..BUT..if he can put up the same (or slightly better) even strength numbers this year as he did last year..I'd be open to a long term deal around $7m because of his age.

I'm no expert but I've really tried to learn hockey over the last 6-7 years.  I watch nearly every Sabres game and try to find time to watch other games.  

I see Reinhart as a role player on a good team.  Maybe that will be the rate in a few years for a role player and paying a little more the first couple years is a factor.  

I like Sam, I just don't think the things he doesn't do well will get better with time even with him being such a young player.  

 

[Zamboni]

For those who want to know more about Reinhart and his development. It’s not for those that have their head up their a$$ and refuse to really see the data. Aka ... duh “eye test, so he’s not good”

 

http://www.naturalstattrick.com/playerreport.php?fromseason=20182019&thruseason=20182019&playerid=8477933&sit=5v5&stype=2&stdoi=oi&rate=n&v=p

 

http://www.naturalstattrick.com/playerreport.php?fromseason=20182019&thruseason=20182019&playerid=8477933&sit=5v5&stype=2&stdoi=oi&rate=n&v=t

 

And if you take another line mate he was paired with more than a couple of times, more times than not, that line mates data shows he did worse without Reinhart in certain categories.

Go ahead and play around on that site. Some data for some players may surprise you.

But i guess it’s fun for some fans to play the negative card in life and sports. Yawn...

[dudacek]

Different fans appreciate different things about the game.

Reinhart happens to be really good at things I really appreciate. As much as I enjoy bickering with @nfreeman about Reinhart, the value of any player is always going to be in the eye of the beholder. Time and circumstance will be the ultimate judge and even then there will be debate.

I remember well all the ***** talking Gretzky took when he was young and how great Tyler Ennis and Zemgus Girgensons were going to be.

Edited June 3, 2019 by dudacek

[SwampD]

1 minute ago, dudacek said:

Different fans appreciate different things about the game.

Reinhart happens to be really good at things I really appreciate. As much as I enjoy bickering with @nfreeman about Reinhart, the value of any player is always going to be in the eye of the beholder. Time and circumstance will be the ultimate judge.

I remember well all the ***** talking Gretzky took when he was young.

Sam's been my favorite player for some time now. Jack's play on the PK this year is giving him a run for his money.

The two of them are going to make next year interesting.

Dammit,… maybe the tank was worth it.

[nfreeman]

There's no question Reino has great hands, a ton of other hockey skills and a high hockey IQ.  He's also not offense-only and doesn't shy away from traffic.  IMHO the question with him is whether some combination of coaching, contract motivation and internal determination/maturity/focus will be able to get it out of him consistently enough such that he becomes a mainstay that they can rely on to play a big role in lifting them out of loserdom.  That's what they need from him, and from anyone to whom they make a long-term, big-money deal. 

[Thorny]

Another great, underrated aspect of Reinhart's game is his durability. 

When you pony up a big contract, you want to know the player is going to be available. 

Edited June 5, 2019 by Thorny

[7+6=13]

On 6/4/2019 at 11:27 PM, Thorny said:

Another great, underrated aspect of Reinhart's game is his durability. 

When you pony up a big contract, you want to know the player is going to be available. 

Very fair point

[PerreaultForever]

I think we have to wait and see how everyone performs in what sounds like it will be a more structured and defensively responsible system. Some players will fit better and some won't. I have absolutely no idea if it'll work or not, but if it's similar to what Dallas did it could be interesting. At this point I'm not fully sold on Sam's ability to play good D. 

[LGR4GM]

7 hours ago, PerreaultForever said:

I think we have to wait and see how everyone performs in what sounds like it will be a more structured and defensively responsible system. Some players will fit better and some won't. I have absolutely no idea if it'll work or not, but if it's similar to what Dallas did it could be interesting. At this point I'm not fully sold on Sam's ability to play good D. 

Why? 

[Doohickie]

Because #narrative.

[dudacek]

I’m interested in seeing whether Sam can evolve into a leader under Krueger.

I always had the feeling that neither Housley and Bylsma initially saw him as a driver and cast him in a support role, though he slowly won each of them over.

I suspect Ralph will be the first coach who intends to lean on him hard from the get-go. I think he will challenge him to be a leader on and off the ice and am curious to see how he responds.

Edited June 7, 2019 by dudacek

[North Buffalo]

I think Sam showed increasing maturity as the year went on.

[Zamboni]

1 hour ago, North Buffalo said:

I think Sam showed increasing maturity as the year went on.

Yep. 

Sams been getting better at everything since his draft year. He hasn’t regressed or plateaued at all.

[Doohickie]

I think Reino will be one of those "leaders without a letter."  He may end up with letter, but even without one I think as he transitions from young player to veteran, will carry a lot of weight in the room, and will do a lot of leadership by example.

[PerreaultForever]

6 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

Why? 

Sam has a habit of positioning himself and waiting for a pass. He has not been, to this point in time, a player who drives the play, carries the puck or forces his opponent into a turnover. When Eichel has the puck and controls it, moves up the ice, this can work and Sam can be in the right place or in front but when the puck is in our end all too often I have seen Sam move out to the perimeter or blue line and wait for someone to send the puck his way. I have not to this point in time seen great backchecking skills from him or tenacity in a defensive role.

All that being said, the team as a whole sucks at defense so maybe with a different system it'll be completely different, Sam included. 

[LGR4GM]

35 minutes ago, PerreaultForever said:

Sam has a habit of positioning himself and waiting for a pass. He has not been, to this point in time, a player who drives the play, carries the puck or forces his opponent into a turnover. When Eichel has the puck and controls it, moves up the ice, this can work and Sam can be in the right place or in front but when the puck is in our end all too often I have seen Sam move out to the perimeter or blue line and wait for someone to send the puck his way. I have not to this point in time seen great backchecking skills from him or tenacity in a defensive role.

All that being said, the team as a whole sucks at defense so maybe with a different system it'll be completely different, Sam included. 

This is factually not accurate.