tom webster Posted July 13, 2019 Report Share Posted July 13, 2019 2 minutes ago, Randall Flagg said: I think Jeff Skinner is an example of a guy who provides goal scoring without tanking your team elsewhere (even though he's bad at defense). Laine is a complete headcase in trying to figure out how to minimize his problems, BEFORE you even touch the fact that the leadership group in Winnipeg is sick of his "lack of buy-in." And talk about streaky - I'm pretty sure he scored 21 of his 30 goals in November. So in the other five months, you got nine goals out of him, while kneecapping yourself in every other facet of a game where 98% of all things that happen aren't goals I like your idea of focusing on goal scorers if you can, I just don't like Laine hehe I understand the argument and I’m not focused on Laine, but in a sport that is so random, I am not convinced that a guy that has a special ability to score has enough positive impact on ten games to more then offset his negative impact on seventy games. And when you factor in the parity caused by a ridiculous points system, it could be the playoffs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randall Flagg Posted July 13, 2019 Report Share Posted July 13, 2019 (edited) 2 minutes ago, tom webster said: I understand the argument and I’m not focused on Laine, but in a sport that is so random, I am not convinced that a guy that has a special ability to score has enough positive impact on ten games to more then offset his negative impact on seventy games. And when you factor in the parity caused by a ridiculous points system, it could be the playoffs. So let's turn that package over to Florida and try to get Hoffman and some other goodies! (Though Hoffman may well be just as problematic as Laine, so maybe not) Edited July 13, 2019 by Randall Flagg Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tom webster Posted July 13, 2019 Report Share Posted July 13, 2019 4 minutes ago, Randall Flagg said: So let's turn that package over to Florida and try to get Hoffman and some other goodies! (Though Hoffman may well be just as problematic as Laine, so maybe not) I’m concentrating on RW Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randall Flagg Posted July 13, 2019 Report Share Posted July 13, 2019 7 minutes ago, tom webster said: I’m concentrating on RW Are they? Any fresh new updates? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TrueBlueGED Posted July 13, 2019 Report Share Posted July 13, 2019 (edited) 25 minutes ago, tom webster said: I understand the argument and I’m not focused on Laine, but in a sport that is so random, I am not convinced that a guy that has a special ability to score has enough positive impact on ten games to more then offset his negative impact on seventy games. And when you factor in the parity caused by a ridiculous points system, it could be the playoffs. Or, if could be this past season all over again. I'd rather be screwed by random parity than bank on it turning out in my favor. I'd rather build a team like those LA Cup teams that would sometimes miss the playoffs on poor shooting than be the Calgary or Avalanche teams of a few years back who made the playoffs on miraculous shooting and didn't get back for years. Edited July 13, 2019 by TrueBlueGED Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neo Posted July 13, 2019 Report Share Posted July 13, 2019 1 hour ago, Randall Flagg said: Dammit true Great minds ... etc., etc. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neo Posted July 13, 2019 Report Share Posted July 13, 2019 1 hour ago, tom webster said: It would seem I used a poor comparison although admittedly, I’m still that numbers guy who still doesn’t trust the science of sports analytics. Anyway, my point was, if they determine center number 2 isn’t coming via a RR trade, and if they determine that holding onto RR will further diminish his value, then acquiring a sniper capable of being a difference maker is not a bad consolation prize. Goal scoring is still the way to win games and overcome poor analytics and maybe undervalued in the possession era. What I’m contemplating: goal scoring “may be undervalued .. or .. may be exposed”. I enjoy analytics making me re-evaluate, re-consider. This is not a reply contradicting your post, at all. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Taro T Posted July 13, 2019 Report Share Posted July 13, 2019 9 hours ago, dudacek said: OK, who does Laine for Risto? Would you add? How much? Realizing that you probably only have Laine for 2-3 years tops as his salary will quite likely make it impossible to keep him when Dahlin and others start to need to get paid. They aren't going to have 3 wings taking up ~$27MM between them. Not with still having Montour and Dahlin after Dahlin moves to a 2nd contract. Makes it hard to pull the trigger on that deal. Would probably do it, but would much rather have a C coming back for Ristolainen. And really not interested in adding anything "good" to the package going out. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
triumph_communes Posted July 13, 2019 Report Share Posted July 13, 2019 Laine and Hoffman are power play specialists who we don’t need. With all the new defenders we have, there’s a good chance we won’t even be able to keep whatever forward we acquire from a Risto trade in the expansion draft. Only getting a couple years out of the target is all you should expect. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dudacek Posted July 13, 2019 Report Share Posted July 13, 2019 (edited) I think Laine is a deeply flawed hockey player. I would trade Risto-plus for him in a second. I get that the consensus doubters are passing judgement in the context of $10 million contracts and franchise players and what it would cost to get him, and that Taro (as he usually does) has the most realistic take. But if an opportunity arises to get Laine for Risto and parts, I am all over that. We talk about needing a Centre now, but long-term we’re riding Eichel Mittelstadt Cozens and Asplund. RW is our biggest hole, particularly young goal scoring RW. Let our young centres and puck-moving defencemen do all the work and just ask Patrik to shoot the puck.This would be an opportunity to pick up the best young goal scoring RW in hockey. Kid scored his 100th goal when he was 20 for ***** sakes. I think Chevy is much too conservative to move him at a depressed value, but if the biggest piece going the other way is Risto, you pounce. Was it @Weave who frequently sarcastically trotted out that eye-roller “we don’t need 30 goal scorers in Buffalo.” Laine just turned 21! So what if he had a bad year, buy low and profit. Edited July 13, 2019 by dudacek 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tom webster Posted July 13, 2019 Report Share Posted July 13, 2019 1 hour ago, Neo said: What I’m contemplating: goal scoring “may be undervalued .. or .. may be exposed”. I enjoy analytics making me re-evaluate, re-consider. This is not a reply contradicting your post, at all. No, I understand and feel the same way. I would like to think that the true believers want to be questioned as well. There is a ton of good information out there but there is a ton of junk science as well. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
inkman Posted July 13, 2019 Report Share Posted July 13, 2019 27 minutes ago, tom webster said: No, I understand and feel the same way. I would like to think that the true believers want to be questioned as well. There is a ton of good information out there but there is a ton of junk science as well. My favorite kind of science ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TrueBlueGED Posted July 13, 2019 Report Share Posted July 13, 2019 1 hour ago, tom webster said: No, I understand and feel the same way. I would like to think that the true believers want to be questioned as well. There is a ton of good information out there but there is a ton of junk science as well. Questioned, sure. But "there's junk science" without any specifics on what and why isn't exactly a great basis to go from, ya know? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Taro T Posted July 13, 2019 Report Share Posted July 13, 2019 (edited) 2 hours ago, triumph_communes said: Laine and Hoffman are power play specialists who we don’t need. With all the new defenders we have, there’s a good chance we won’t even be able to keep whatever forward we acquire from a Risto trade in the expansion draft. Only getting a couple years out of the target is all you should expect. Not sure why they'd have to lose the return for Ristolainen in the Seattle draft. Really don't see them protecting their 4th D at the expense of the 5th forward. Botterill has built up the D cupboard with a bunch of early 20's/ mid 20's guys seemingly well. Would expect losing a D man will cause less pain than losing a 2nd line F. (Based on how difficult it's been to build up the top 2 lines.) And if they can't get a top 7 F for Ristolainen, just keep him. Edited July 13, 2019 by Taro T 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tom webster Posted July 13, 2019 Report Share Posted July 13, 2019 (edited) 2 hours ago, TrueBlueGED said: Questioned, sure. But "there's junk science" without any specifics on what and why isn't exactly a great basis to go from, ya know? I’m not questioning anything specific at this point. Over the course of time I’ve seen too much arbitrary interpretations, conclusions based on results that didn’t seem statistically significant and questionable correlations that I suspect everything I haven’t had time to read. To be honest, I’m not sure I’m up to the idea of doing the research and spending the time to have an intelligent argument at this point. Frankly, I have listened to friends who I have unquestioned respect for suddenly become experts and spout numbers off of reports by authors I know believe that if they flip ten straight tails that the probability is greater then fifty/fifty that the next flip will be heads. Generally I believe that analytics is great for measuring team play, not so much for individual performance and I believe that what mathematicians believe to be statistically significant isn’t necessarily statistically significant in practice. Edited July 13, 2019 by tom webster Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randall Flagg Posted July 13, 2019 Report Share Posted July 13, 2019 3 hours ago, dudacek said: I think Laine is a deeply flawed hockey player. I would trade Risto-plus for him in a second. I get that the consensus doubters are passing judgement in the context of $10 million contracts and franchise players and what it would cost to get him, and that Taro (as he usually does) has the most realistic take. But if an opportunity arises to get Laine for Risto and parts, I am all over that. We talk about needing a Centre now, but long-term we’re riding Eichel Mittelstadt Cozens and Asplund. RW is our biggest hole, particularly young goal scoring RW. Let our young centres and puck-moving defencemen do all the work and just ask Patrik to shoot the puck.This would be an opportunity to pick up the best young goal scoring RW in hockey. Kid scored his 100th goal when he was 20 for ***** sakes. I think Chevy is much too conservative to move him at a depressed value, but if the biggest piece going the other way is Risto, you pounce. Was it @Weave who frequently sarcastically trotted out that eye-roller “we don’t need 30 goal scorers in Buffalo.” Laine just turned 21! So what if he had a bad year, buy low and profit. Thinking like this terrifies me though Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dudacek Posted July 13, 2019 Report Share Posted July 13, 2019 6 minutes ago, Randall Flagg said: Thinking like this terrifies me though Isn’t that how Tampa became Tampa? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randall Flagg Posted July 13, 2019 Report Share Posted July 13, 2019 15 minutes ago, dudacek said: Isn’t that how Tampa became Tampa? Can you flesh this out a bit? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Curt Posted July 13, 2019 Report Share Posted July 13, 2019 (edited) 30 minutes ago, dudacek said: Isn’t that how Tampa became Tampa? Yes, in order to be a very good team, it’s basically a prerequisite to draft and develop well. However, even Tampa went out and acquired Valteri Filppula to be a quality 2nd/3rd C for them when they were looking at entering the 2013-14 season with a 23 yr old Stamkos and unproven 23 yr old Tyler Johnson as their C’s. Just because the long term plan is to run out a C group comprised of Eichel, Mittelstadt, Cozens, Asplund, or at least to hope that most of those guys work out, that doesn’t mean that they don’t need help until they are actually ready. Added Note: Mitts basically proved last season that he wasn’t ready. I think it’s unwise to expect some sort of explosive improvement from him. His improvement is much more likely to be slow and incremental. He probably is not going to be able to drive the play and create scoring chances for Laine. I think the only one who can do that well is Eichel, otherwise you are wasting a lot of what Laine can do. Johansson playing C for Buffalo could help this situation a lot I think. No idea if that will happen though. Edited July 13, 2019 by Curt 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dudacek Posted July 13, 2019 Report Share Posted July 13, 2019 8 minutes ago, Randall Flagg said: Can you flesh this out a bit? Internal development: Stamkos, Point, Cirelli, (and their key wingers) were all drafted and/or developed by Tampa. I don’t know why that’s terrifying; it’s a proven method of franchise development. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randall Flagg Posted July 13, 2019 Report Share Posted July 13, 2019 (edited) 24 minutes ago, dudacek said: Internal development: Stamkos, Point, Cirelli, (and their key wingers) were all drafted and/or developed by Tampa. I don’t know why that’s terrifying; it’s a proven method of franchise development. What's terrifying is proceeding under the assumption that those three unknowns will make a fine center corps when our team has no other strengths (relative to average-to-good NHL teams) and we have just seen 3 other highly drafted centers not pan out under the exact same assumptions I struggle to map anything we've done to make our team the way it is right now (both good and bad) to where Tampa was. They brought Stamkos onto a team with the likes of St. Louis, Lecavalier, were good briefly, and then retooled quickly with the most absurdly good drafting in all rounds that I've ever seen in my life We're 1 for 4 on high-first-round centers, have one that is only twenty, was a bad NHLer this year, and never did to his peers what you'd expect given the projections people make for him, and another that was just drafted and is currently 18. It'd be completely reasonable for them to both work out not until age ~23, and I have plans for the five years between now and that scenario in which I'd consider us lucky Edited July 13, 2019 by Randall Flagg 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randall Flagg Posted July 13, 2019 Report Share Posted July 13, 2019 My thought is that the hole is already there, and it's been bleeding for a year, and the plan should not be Eichel - Mitts - Cozens just because even if it does work, that's years of waiting 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dudacek Posted July 13, 2019 Report Share Posted July 13, 2019 3 minutes ago, Curt said: Yes, in order to be a very good team, it’s basically a prerequisite to draft and develop well. However, even Tampa went out and acquired Valteri Filppula to be a quality 2nd/3rd C for them when they were looking at entering the 2013-14 season with a 23 yr old Stamkos and unproven 23 yr old Tyler Johnson as their C’s. Just because the long term plan is to run out a C group comprised of Eichel, Mittelstadt, Cozens, Asplund, or at least to hope that most of those guys work out, that doesn’t mean that they don’t need help until they are actually ready. For sure. Wasn’t implying anything different. I would still rather trade a Risto for a Laine or a Drouin for a Sergachev than a Fillipula. Eichel Skinner Laine Mittelstadt Reinhart Cozens looks intriguing, no? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randall Flagg Posted July 13, 2019 Report Share Posted July 13, 2019 Just now, dudacek said: For sure. Wasn’t implying anything different. I would still rather trade a Risto for a Laine or a Drouin for a Sergachev than a Fillipula. Eichel Skinner Laine Mittelstadt Reinhart Cozens looks intriguing, no? Not trolling or anything, I'm pretty ambivalent about that Honestly believe Laine would rapidly become this forum's least favorite player 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dudacek Posted July 13, 2019 Report Share Posted July 13, 2019 1 minute ago, Randall Flagg said: My thought is that the hole is already there, and it's been bleeding for a year, and the plan should not be Eichel - Mitts - Cozens just because even if it does work, that's years of waiting I’m not implying we should wait for years to improve our centre ice corps, I am saying that if we can flip our best trade chip for a 21-year-old who has never scored less than 30 goals, I’m not waiting around hoping that JT Miller becomes available. 2 minutes ago, Randall Flagg said: Not trolling or anything, I'm pretty ambivalent about that Honestly believe Laine would rapidly become this forum's least favorite player Miro Satan was among my least favourite players. Still make that trade every time. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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