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Brawndo

Free Agent Contract Projections

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Matt Cane used to put out annual projections of how much RFAs and UFAs would get with their next deal and he was usually very close with their actual deal. Cane was hired by a NHL Team and no longer does public work so Evolving Wild another analytics site has taken over this role. 

Some notable projections 

Skinner 8/9.1AAV

Kevin Hayes 8/8.1 AAV 

Matt Duchene 6/6.9 AAV 

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/15E1qqh3OfHvvhbv_pICfKT7VR1jJEVhWQOyKviWLN54/htmlview

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I would not be happy with Botts if Skinner got anywhere near 9.1. Give me Duchene and another FA if that’s the case. 

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20 minutes ago, #freejame said:

I would not be happy with Botts if Skinner got anywhere near 9.1. Give me Duchene and another FA if that’s the case. 

Yep me neither but Botts is really jammed up against a wall with Skinner. We need Skinner more than he needs us imo. But 9mil is a ton of money to spend on a player who is valuable & a great asset but perhaps not an integral player on your team. Someone like ROR for instance you could justify spending that money. Mark Stone is another. Those players add more value to your team than a Skinner does. But if thats Skinners asking price, idk how Botts lets him walk & doesn't pay him. Either with that 8th year at the end of the term or by a higher AAV.

It'll sure be interesting to see what happens & if Botts takes the bold route & lets him walk & goes after other players or if he just pays him.

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No way Skinner at $8.9 mil, but hasn't the scuttlebutt been they've already agreed on $$ yet haven't reached an agreement on term?

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16 minutes ago, ... said:

No way Skinner at $8.9 mil, but hasn't the scuttlebutt been they've already agreed on $$ yet haven't reached an agreement on term?

Yes this is what Dreger feels is the case

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4 hours ago, Brawndo said:

Matt Cane used to put out annual projections of how much RFAs and UFAs would get with their next deal and he was usually very close with their actual deal. Cane was hired by a NHL Team and no longer does public work so Evolving Wild another analytics site has taken over this role. 

Some notable projections 

Skinner 8/9.1AAV

Kevin Hayes 8/8.1 AAV 

Matt Duchene 6/6.9 AAV 

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/15E1qqh3OfHvvhbv_pICfKT7VR1jJEVhWQOyKviWLN54/htmlview

Those 3 are all horrible projections lol

https://comb.io/08BUdv

Edited by Thorny

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You can't project Duchene now. The question on him was always could he deliver when it mattered. If Columbus keeps winning, and he keeps putting up playoff numbers he will get a lot more than 6.9

 

9.1 is too much for Skinner. He still has durability question marks and his play in the second half when checking was tighter not nearly as good as the first half. 

That's also too much for Hayes. 

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16 hours ago, ... said:

No way Skinner at $8.9 mil, but hasn't the scuttlebutt been they've already agreed on $$ yet haven't reached an agreement on term?

How can you agree to a $ amount but not term?  Changing the term would generally change the $ amount.

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Anyone signing Hayes or Skinner to those numbers will live to regret it.

 

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17 hours ago, MillerVaive said:

Yep me neither but Botts is really jammed up against a wall with Skinner. We need Skinner more than he needs us imo. But 9mil is a ton of money to spend on a player who is valuable & a great asset but perhaps not an integral player on your team. Someone like ROR for instance you could justify spending that money. Mark Stone is another. Those players add more value to your team than a Skinner does. But if thats Skinners asking price, idk how Botts lets him walk & doesn't pay him. Either with that 8th year at the end of the term or by a higher AAV.

It'll sure be interesting to see what happens & if Botts takes the bold route & lets him walk & goes after other players or if he just pays him.

I'm not sure just how much the Sabres need Skinner.  Are they are better team with him next year than without him?  Yes.  But this team isn't likely contending for a cup next year.  2-3 years down the road..or more...where/how does he fit in?  I love watching him play and I love goals, but you don't need a 40 goal scorer to be a great team.  Its nice to have one..but you better not overpay for it.  I really want a top goal scorer on this team...but he has to fit in in 'other ways' if you are going to pay that much.  I hope they sign him but not for 8 years at $65 million or more.  I'll honestly pass on him if that is the price.

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$9.1 at 8 years is an albatross waiting to happen.  I don’t think he puts up 40 goals again.  As we saw the second half of the year, he returned to the more 25-30 goal scorer which I believe is more likely the real him. Looks like we might be sucking and drafting another 2-3 years before this turns around.  

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It is going to be a nutty summer.

A good class of UFAs, a very good class of RFAs, a number of teams up hard against the cap, a lot of teams with a lot of money to spend. Lots of teams looking to make changes because of on-ice disappointments.

There is going to be a ton of movement and probably offer sheets, or at least trades made because of the threat of one.

The Sabres have (approximately) $28 million (based on an $82 million cap) to spend and no expensive restricted free agents to sign. Skinner is UFA

 

Other teams with enough money to do something silly:

Carolina $28 million, Aho to sign, Mrazek UFA

Chicago $21 million, no significant RFAs

Colorado $35 million, Rantanen to sign

Columbus $31 million, Werenski to sign, Bobrovsky, Panarin, Dzingel and Duchene UFA

Dallas $21, no significant RFAs, Zuccarello UFA

Florida $20, no significant RFAs

New Jersey $35, no significant RFAs

Islanders $24, Beauvillier to sign, Eberle, Lehner, Lee, Nelson UFAs

Rangers $20 million,  no significant RFAs

Ottawa $37 million, Ceci RFA

Philadelphia $34 million, Provorov and Sanheim RFAs

San Jose $23 million, Karlsson, Pavelski, Thornton, Nyquist UFA

Vancouver $28, Boeser RFA, Edler UFA

 

Teams potentially looking to free salary include:

Anaheim, $11, squeezed by bad contracts

Boston $10, McAvoy, Carlo and Heiden to sign

Calgary $11, Tkachuk and Bennet to sign, both goalies unsigned

Edmonton $10, squeezed by bad contracts

Los Angles $9, squeezed by bad contracts

Nashville $4, Simmonds UFA

Pittsburgh $2

Tampa $9, Point RFA, 4 defencemen UFA

Toronto $6, Marner, Kapanen Johnsson RFA, Gardiner, HainseyUFA

Vegas $1 million over the cap,Karlsson RFA

Washington $9 million, Burakovsky, Varana RFA,Connolly, Orpik, Hagelin UFA

Winnipeg $26 million, Laine, Connor, Trouba RFA, Myers, Hayes UFA

Edited by dudacek
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I think the GMs need to grow a pair and start offer sheeting RFAs. They are rivals and it is a way to keep some teams in check.

I know it would drive up salaries but it would eventually become part of the equation in long term cap planning.

If a team wants to part with draft picks, have at it.

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1 minute ago, French Collection said:

I think the GMs need to grow a pair and start offer sheeting RFAs. They are rivals and it is a way to keep some teams in check.

I know it would drive up salaries but it would eventually become part of the equation in long term cap planning.

If a team wants to part with draft picks, have at it.

Thing is it can’t drive up salaries because the cap prevents that.

 

Arguments for offer-sheeting Marner or Point:

1 acquire a legitimate 1st line player for his entire prime

2 Improves the team significantly and immediately addressing our biggest weakness.

3 Hurts a division competitor either through removing one of their best players, or creating cap issues.

 

Arguments against:

1 Removes our best chance for adding a good prospect for the next four years

2 May open ourselves up to a future similar strike against Dahlin or Mittelstadt.

 

I say with this signing and this year’s first pick, we have enough under 25 talent to absorb the loss of picks. Get Dahlin signed long-term next summer, and I say the risk and the price is well worth the cost.

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1 hour ago, dudacek said:

 

2 May open ourselves up to a future similar strike against Dahlin or Mittelstadt.

#1 is a huge concern.  #2 is easy.  If Dahlin gets an offer sheet, you match.  If Casey gets one, pending compensation you walk, and take the picks.   

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Woah. Kevin Hayes has a career high of 25 goals and 55 points. He’s topped the 20/50 mark just once each. If someone gives him 8x8 I will laugh hysterically. He’s a 5x5 player to me (whom I’d gladly sign).

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After Kane, O'Reilly, Lehner and Housley if JBotts doesn't re-sign Skinner the fan base will be coming after him with sharp implements. He's put himself between a rock and a very, very hard place and I don't think he has any wiggle room. Period.

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On 4/19/2019 at 4:52 PM, Brawndo said:

Matt Cane used to put out annual projections of how much RFAs and UFAs would get with their next deal and he was usually very close with their actual deal. Cane was hired by a NHL Team and no longer does public work so Evolving Wild another analytics site has taken over this role. 

Some notable projections 

Skinner 8/9.1AAV

Kevin Hayes 8/8.1 AAV 

Matt Duchene 6/6.9 AAV 

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/15E1qqh3OfHvvhbv_pICfKT7VR1jJEVhWQOyKviWLN54/htmlview

Unless this spread sheet gets updated daily I am seeing different projections.

Skinner 7 yrs/8.2 AAV

Hayes 4 yrs/5.6 AAV

Duchene 6 yrs/6.9 AAV ** this one is the same

 

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So let's look at what JBotts has to play with after signing our RFA's

what they project vrs what JBotts will sign them for

McCabe 2yrs/ 2.6 AAV  Sabres will sign 4yrs/ 3.5 AAV

Ullmark- no info ???   Sabres will sign 2yrs/ 1.5 AAV

Rodrigues 3yrs/ 2.5 AAV  Sabres will sign 3 yrs 1.75 AAV

CJ Smith- 1yr/ 787K AAV   Sabres will sign 1yr/ 900K AAV

With no other RFA's players offered contracts and no trades being done that leaves the Sabres 19 million to fill a few positions.  According to this site and AAV's who would you go after?

Duchene  6 yrs/ 6.9 AAV.      Buffalo should sign 6 yrs/ 7.5 AAV

Ferland 4 yrs/ 4.4 AAV.         Buffalo should sign 4 yrs/ 4.75 AAV

Tanev 4 yrs/ 3 AAV               Buffalo should sign 3 yrs/ 3 AAV

Connolly 3/ 3.4 AAV.            Buffalo should sign 3 yrs/ 3.5 AAV

 

 

 

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1 hour ago, sweetlou said:

So let's look at what JBotts has to play with after signing our RFA's

what they project vrs what JBotts will sign them for

McCabe 2yrs/ 2.6 AAV  Sabres will sign 4yrs/ 3.5 AAV

Ullmark- no info ???   Sabres will sign 2yrs/ 1.5 AAV

Rodrigues 3yrs/ 2.5 AAV  Sabres will sign 3 yrs 1.75 AAV

CJ Smith- 1yr/ 787K AAV   Sabres will sign 1yr/ 900K AAV

With no other RFA's players offered contracts and no trades being done that leaves the Sabres 19 million to fill a few positions.  According to this site and AAV's who would you go after?

Duchene  6 yrs/ 6.9 AAV.      Buffalo should sign 6 yrs/ 7.5 AAV

Ferland 4 yrs/ 4.4 AAV.         Buffalo should sign 4 yrs/ 4.75 AAV

Tanev 4 yrs/ 3 AAV               Buffalo should sign 3 yrs/ 3 AAV

Connolly 3/ 3.4 AAV.            Buffalo should sign 3 yrs/ 3.5 AAV

 

 

 

Could you imagine if the Sabres signed that haul.... anyway they can still sign Skinner or are you assuming hes gone? 

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