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Trade Risto this summer/Corsi arguments

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Pure speculation on my part, but my guess would be that Botterill has a price that if met, Risto is gone, no second guessing. I suppose that's true of just about every player, but I think he's listening extra intently on Risto. 

The trade value being such that it's close to that of a rehabilitated on-ice Risto, so close that its worth taking the risk he would have become that player, considering how much risk is mitigated by moving him now: Teams may still think he's bad because we are bad. If we get good and he's still bad, his value is almost gone. 

Edited by Thorny

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10 hours ago, Taro T said:

I'm w/ Millsie on this one.

He could definitely be (finally) relegated to 2nd pairing this year.  And IF (granted a BIF if) they want to slide Dahlin back to the right side after the lockout, then Dahlin is 1st pairing (where he'll belong), Montour can be 2nd pairing (where he'll excel), & Ristolainen can be 3rd pairing (where he should as well).  The left side could be McCabe & cheap, good, young guys (or 3 young cheap guys should McCabe get lost to Seattle).

That could be a really solid D.

Then we aren't talking about Risto improving we are talking about putting him on the 3rd line so he can handle. 

The original point isn't we use Risto wrong, it is that Risto is who he is and isn't going to suddenly figure it out. I 100% agree he should be moved off the first pair, he simply isn't good enough defensively. 

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1 hour ago, LGR4GM said:

Then we aren't talking about Risto improving we are talking about putting him on the 3rd line so he can handle. 

The original point isn't we use Risto wrong, it is that Risto is who he is and isn't going to suddenly figure it out. I 100% agree he should be moved off the first pair, he simply isn't good enough defensively. 

Actually, it's a combination of the 2 (and we're also only talking for certain of him sliding to 2nd pairing; 3rd pairing is best case scenario if a lot comes together over the next year.  IMHO if the Sabres can afford to legitimately slide Ristolainen to 3rd pairing down the road, they end up in the discussion for top D in the league).

We know he can't effectively handle top pairing full time over 82 games.  It puts him in situations that he isn't good enough to handle and forces him to play beyond his abilities.  Getting regular 2nd pairing D can reduce his load & also let him stay within his own abilities making him a better player.  Derek Roy looked great when sheltered, but his flaws came out when he was forced to be #1.  IMHO, that's where Ristolainen is at as well.  If that is the case, by not trading him they have a really solid top 4.  If wrong, he can still get traded mid-season or next off-season with little / no drop in value coming back.  (Because, the people that think they can fix him now / use him properly will still think that 8 months from now.

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1 hour ago, Taro T said:

Actually, it's a combination of the 2 (and we're also only talking for certain of him sliding to 2nd pairing; 3rd pairing is best case scenario if a lot comes together over the next year.  IMHO if the Sabres can afford to legitimately slide Ristolainen to 3rd pairing down the road, they end up in the discussion for top D in the league).

We know he can't effectively handle top pairing full time over 82 games.  It puts him in situations that he isn't good enough to handle and forces him to play beyond his abilities.  Getting regular 2nd pairing D can reduce his load & also let him stay within his own abilities making him a better player.  Derek Roy looked great when sheltered, but his flaws came out when he was forced to be #1.  IMHO, that's where Ristolainen is at as well.  If that is the case, by not trading him they have a really solid top 4.  If wrong, he can still get traded mid-season or next off-season with little / no drop in value coming back.  (Because, the people that think they can fix him now / use him properly will still think that 8 months from now.

Seems logical but I am doubtful of him being here in October... or July really. 

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3 hours ago, Ross Rhea said:

Is there a breakdown of Ristos corsi numbers for the first 41 games of the season only?  

I don't total shots, but I do total the number of goals he should have been on the ice for had the team scored the percentage times based upon the number of shots and the distance of the shot (what I call the Should have Scored). Risto's shot numbers aren't so bad, the shooting percentage on the ice (in both directions) in the second half is horrific.

All numbers even strength

Games 1-41

The team should have scored 37.8 goals, they actually scored 31 goals

The team should have allowed 38.2 goals, they actually gave up 38 goals

Games 42-75, I haven't downloaded the last handful of games

The team should have scored 31.2, they actually scored 24

The team should have allowed 35.1, they actually allowed 53

Yes, his Corsi got a little worse the last half, but it isn't the important number. His on-ice shooting percentage for got much worse. His on-ice shooting percentage against got much worse.

 

 

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With all the D injuries this off-season it seems like Risto may not be able to be moved!  Bad timing.

We'll see.

 

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6 hours ago, Taro T said:

Actually, it's a combination of the 2 (and we're also only talking for certain of him sliding to 2nd pairing; 3rd pairing is best case scenario if a lot comes together over the next year.  IMHO if the Sabres can afford to legitimately slide Ristolainen to 3rd pairing down the road, they end up in the discussion for top D in the league).

We know he can't effectively handle top pairing full time over 82 games.  It puts him in situations that he isn't good enough to handle and forces him to play beyond his abilities.  Getting regular 2nd pairing D can reduce his load & also let him stay within his own abilities making him a better player.  Derek Roy looked great when sheltered, but his flaws came out when he was forced to be #1.  IMHO, that's where Ristolainen is at as well.  If that is the case, by not trading him they have a really solid top 4.  If wrong, he can still get traded mid-season or next off-season with little / no drop in value coming back.  (Because, the people that think they can fix him now / use him properly will still think that 8 months from now.

Less likely if we actually turn a corner next season and his metrics are still bad. It's also harder to shelter a 2nd pair D man (18 mins?) than a 3rd line forward. 

But I take your point, I think we'd see at least some improvement from moving him to pair 2. 

Edited by Thorny

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11 hours ago, utsvävande said:

I don't total shots, but I do total the number of goals he should have been on the ice for had the team scored the percentage times based upon the number of shots and the distance of the shot (what I call the Should have Scored). Risto's shot numbers aren't so bad, the shooting percentage on the ice (in both directions) in the second half is horrific.

All numbers even strength

Games 1-41

The team should have scored 37.8 goals, they actually scored 31 goals

The team should have allowed 38.2 goals, they actually gave up 38 goals

Games 42-75, I haven't downloaded the last handful of games

The team should have scored 31.2, they actually scored 24

The team should have allowed 35.1, they actually allowed 53

Yes, his Corsi got a little worse the last half, but it isn't the important number. His on-ice shooting percentage for got much worse. His on-ice shooting percentage against got much worse.

 

 

This is everything wrong with analytics.   Risto's "on-ice shooting percentage against"....  think about that.

The shooting % against went up when he was on the ice because he's terrible defensively and gives up grade A chances.     That's how I interpret it.  

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6 hours ago, pi2000 said:

This is everything wrong with analytics.   Risto's "on-ice shooting percentage against"....  think about that.

The shooting % against went up when he was on the ice because he's terrible defensively and gives up grade A chances.     That's how I interpret it.  

Yes, we agree. What changed drastically, as the season went on, wasn't the number of shots he was giving up, but the quality of those shots.

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I think WGR made a good point this morning. Risto is what he is and the real question is do you think he is capable of running the 2nd pair or not? Are you comfortable with 20minutes of him a night and probably 15min of 5v5? 

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1 hour ago, LGR4GM said:

I think WGR made a good point this morning. Risto is what he is and the real question is do you think he is capable of running the 2nd pair or not? Are you comfortable with 20minutes of him a night and probably 15min of 5v5? 

On WGR this morning Botterill said he thinks in terms of top 4 guys that he can use in all situations and seemed to be of the opinion that Risto can be one of them.

Edited by dudacek

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Also on Risto: loves his compete and the way he rises to the occasion against players like Kucherov and Ovechkin, wants to see it in the playoffs. Thinks he needs to learn how to pick his spots better because he wears down and it hurts his breakouts and his ability to join the rush. Thinks Krueger can help him by simplifying systems and using him better.

In short, it almost sounds like Botterill agrees with what I read from a lot of you guys.

Edited by dudacek
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14 minutes ago, WildCard said:

 

Boy, that's a trade bait sales pitch if I've ever seen one. "He's great, but he needs more talent around him. And he's still developing, I promise!"

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6 minutes ago, darksabre said:

Boy, that's a trade bait sales pitch if I've ever seen one. "He's great, but he needs more talent around him. And he's still developing, I promise!"

It sure reads that way.

Didnt sound that way to me when he said it though.

Edited by dudacek
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Just now, dudacek said:

It sure reads that way.

Didnt sound that way to me when he said it though.

Maybe Botterill is drinking the Krueger positivity kool-aid already 😋

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3 minutes ago, darksabre said:

Maybe Botterill is drinking the Krueger positivity kool-aid already 😋

Maybe I am too, but this one doesn’t feel like an O’Reilly situation to me where Botterill seemed determined to move Risto at all costs.

More like he’s willing, but only if you meet his price.

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2 hours ago, darksabre said:

Boy, that's a trade bait sales pitch if I've ever seen one. "He's great, but he needs more talent around him. And he's still developing, I promise!"

Or it's something you say because you want another GM to believe that....

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4 hours ago, dudacek said:

Maybe I am too, but this one doesn’t feel like an O’Reilly situation to me where Botterill seemed determined to move Risto at all costs.

More like he’s willing, but only if you meet his price.

More of a Reinhart situation. 

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3 hours ago, LTS said:

Or it's something you say because you want another GM to believe that....

Sports is just poker

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Did I hear that Kruger is big on the analytics stuff? I just wonder what that means for Risto. Will he see his numbers and try and trade him or is he going to work on this young players skills to get him playing different. 

 

I'm totally against trading Risto. 

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8 hours ago, bob_sauve28 said:

Did I hear that Kruger is big on the analytics stuff?

Not exactly.  Kreuger basically says it’s one tool in the tool kit, and can be applied by coaches/management in some ways, but doesn’t want to burden the players with the numbers directly.  Which I took to mean that advanced metrics have their uses, but it’s only one piece of the puzzle.

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On 5/14/2019 at 8:56 AM, LGR4GM said:

Risto takes the most solo zone exits (so he doesn't use his team to exit as much as anyone else) and it results in this

The short version is Risto needs a coach and he needs to listen to that coach, if he won't TRADE HIM. He tries to carry the puck out of the zone the most and is the worst at it. He should be using his teammates more. 

Is this accurate? He’s on the ice a lot. How many of our team exits occurred because he won a battle on the end wall and through the puck up the boards to a forward? Would that be considered using your teammate?

I just find defensive stats to be so lacking. There’s so much more to playing D than when the puck is on a stick.

(ftr, I don’t get the Athletic, so if they covered that, I apologize.)

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