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matter2003

Trade Risto this summer/Corsi arguments

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2 hours ago, PerreaultForever said:

No, I'm saying they have too many good players with pricey contracts already and they have younger guys who are going to want big contracts and they cannot keep them all. Not talking Moulsons and Okposos here, good players. No idea who they are willing to move and want to keep but they cannot keep them all. 

They have too many players who were SUPPOSED to be good on big contracts but aren't...

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2 hours ago, matter2003 said:

They have too many players who were SUPPOSED to be good on big contracts but aren't...

Who are you talking about? That team is loaded with talent and the favorite to win it all by far. 

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1 minute ago, PerreaultForever said:

Who are you talking about? That team is loaded with talent and the favorite to win it all by far. 

Moulsson and Okposo come to mind...

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On 3/21/2019 at 10:06 AM, matter2003 said:

Actually, yes. Yes they do:

 

image.thumb.png.07fbd36600e916f6da53d0af5844ebbe.png

I'm not big on following these metrics, but is the highlighted season one of his best? if so, that's the season he tore his achillies and only played in 17 games.  I would expect you would find a better example than that.

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So, after observing Risto on cleanout day, I'm going to officially predict that he gets traded.  He sounded and looked like he expects, and perhaps wants, it to happen. 

From the Sabres' perspective, I can see them wanting to make some material changes in the D group after the poopshow in the 2nd half this year.

As I've said previously, I'm fine with trading him, but a good player needs to be coming back.  This can't be for picks/prospects.  He's a pretty good, albeit flawed, player.  They shouldn't unload him just for the sake of moving on.

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final TRpm's for BUF:

@sfo-lvgoy:~$ ./trpm_v1.2.py BUF
Jeff Skinner            14.20
Zach Bogosian            8.15
Casey Nelson             6.48
Jake McCabe              6.45
Nathan Beaulieu          5.12
Sam Reinhart             4.53
Jason Pominville         4.51
Evan Rodrigues           3.94
Jack Eichel              3.71
Rasmus Dahlin            3.21
Johan Larsson            1.76
Kyle Okposo              1.05
Brandon Montour          0.07
Remi Elie               -1.45
Zemgus Girgensons       -1.83
Patrik Berglund         -2.19
Marco Scandella         -2.62
Lawrence Pilut          -2.63
Scott Wilson            -6.39
Conor Sheary            -7.34
Casey Mittelstadt       -9.32
Vladimir Sobotka       -10.85
Tage Thompson          -14.63
Rasmus Ristolainen     -23.04

 

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2 hours ago, pi2000 said:

final TRpm's for BUF:


@sfo-lvgoy:~$ ./trpm_v1.2.py BUF
Jeff Skinner            14.20
Zach Bogosian            8.15
Casey Nelson             6.48
Jake McCabe              6.45
Nathan Beaulieu          5.12
Sam Reinhart             4.53
Jason Pominville         4.51
Evan Rodrigues           3.94
Jack Eichel              3.71
Rasmus Dahlin            3.21
Johan Larsson            1.76
Kyle Okposo              1.05
Brandon Montour          0.07
Remi Elie               -1.45
Zemgus Girgensons       -1.83
Patrik Berglund         -2.19
Marco Scandella         -2.62
Lawrence Pilut          -2.63
Scott Wilson            -6.39
Conor Sheary            -7.34
Casey Mittelstadt       -9.32
Vladimir Sobotka       -10.85
Tage Thompson          -14.63
Rasmus Ristolainen     -23.04

 

Looks about right. Surprised Girgs isn't lower, but then again, not much of anything happens when he is on the ice.

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Toronto's final TRpm's for those interested...   remember, a TRpm near 0 means you're an equal contributor to the team's overall performance.    Large negative means you're an anchor (at ES).     Hainsey was a +30, he doesn't score much at all, but still... a +30 is significant... which means he defends well on a team that can score. 

IMO BUF needs more players like him who are skilled at defending.    Risto certainly provides more offense than Hainsey, but defensively they're not even close...   does Risto's offense offest his lack of defense?   Not on Buffalo's current roster... but if you pair him with the right guy, then it can offset the difference.     Adding more Montour's, Pilut's, etc.. guys who can skate well and provide offense... isn't going to help... they need some Ron Hainsey's to pair up with these guys.   What good is it if Risto scores 2 goals, but the team gives up 3 as a result of his mistakes because there's nobody to help cover his gaffe's?    Just way too many of those types of players on the current roster and not enough Hainsey's. 

@sfo-lvgoy:~$ ./trpm_v1.2.py TOR
Ron Hainsey             18.00
Morgan Rielly           10.13
Mitch Marner            10.11
Jake Gardiner            9.37
John Tavares             7.55
Zach Hyman               7.02
Andreas Johnsson         6.70
Jake Muzzin              6.38
Connor Brown             2.72
Kasperi Kapanen          2.52
Par Lindholm            -0.11
Trevor Moore            -0.66
Josh Leivo              -1.08
Frederik Gauthier       -1.29
Igor Ozhiganov          -5.44
Tyler Ennis             -9.71
William Nylander       -10.13
Nikita Zaitsev         -10.13
Nazem Kadri            -10.64
Travis Dermott         -13.10
Patrick Marleau        -15.81
Auston Matthews        -18.23

 

EDM:

@sfo-lvgoy:~$ ./trpm_v1.2.py EDM
Matt Benning            17.38
Kris Russell            13.97
Connor McDavid          13.86
Leon Draisaitl          13.29
Darnell Nurse            6.91
Alex Chiasson            6.55
Ty Rattie                1.46
Kevin Gravel             1.23
Zack Kassian             1.13
Sam Gagner              -0.93
Colby Cave              -1.63
Oscar Klefbom           -2.08
Milan Lucic             -2.63
Tobias Rieder           -2.83
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins     -2.95
Ryan Spooner            -4.53
Drake Caggiula          -5.52
Jujhar Khaira           -7.40
Kyle Brodziak           -9.01
Jesse Puljujarvi       -10.65
Adam Larsson           -17.19

 

Edited by pi2000
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Why am I suddenly thinking TRpm was created specifically with Auston Matthews in mind?

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16 minutes ago, darksabre said:

Do the Islanders

players with min 25 games played.....  I think less than that is a bit too small sample size.

@sfo-lvgoy:~$ ./trpm_v1.2.py NYI
Casey Cizikas           14.10
Valtteri Filppula       11.07
Adam Pelech             10.77
Leo Komarov              9.21
Anders Lee               9.18
Brock Nelson             8.62
Ryan Pulock              6.83
Scott Mayfield           6.57
Michael Dal Colle        0.38
Devon Toews              0.36
Andrew Ladd              0.22
Thomas Hickey           -0.72
Johnny Boychuk          -0.76
Matt Martin             -0.92
Cal Clutterbuck         -1.87
Tom Kuhnhackl           -2.53
Josh Bailey             -2.66
Anthony Beauvillier     -8.17
Nick Leddy             -13.65
Jordan Eberle          -15.96
Mathew Barzal          -16.35

I can do any team from any season.... going back to 1988.

16 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Why am I suddenly thinking TRpm was created specifically with Auston Matthews in mind?

Hey, it's not my fault he's a giant douche with little character who values money over winning.

Edited by pi2000

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I firmly believe that Risto's stats are bad because we broke him. He has spent too much time trying to be the #1 guy and makes mistakes constantly out of position trying to cover for his D partner or for forwards left unchecked. If he had entered this league paired with a guy like Chara he'd be an allstar now. So the question is, is he broke forever or can he be fixed with a better pairing and coaching where he relearns how to play his area and his responsibilities? I guess that's what JBot has to decide but I bet if he goes to a team with a solid D system we will regret it. 

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21 hours ago, PerreaultForever said:

I firmly believe that Risto's stats are bad because we broke him. He has spent too much time trying to be the #1 guy and makes mistakes constantly out of position trying to cover for his D partner or for forwards left unchecked. If he had entered this league paired with a guy like Chara he'd be an allstar now. So the question is, is he broke forever or can he be fixed with a better pairing and coaching where he relearns how to play his area and his responsibilities? I guess that's what JBot has to decide but I bet if he goes to a team with a solid D system we will regret it. 

To add to this, I think Risto sees the coach, former trash coaches also as having poor gameplans, poor system, just poor coaching and checks out sooner than the others. 

 

Would love to see this guy with some good coaching. I think he would flourish on another team with a decent coach and that's why I wouldn't want to trade him.  

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1 hour ago, Doohickie said:

I'm sorry.... what's TRpm?

Team Relative plus minus 

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2 hours ago, Doohickie said:

I'm sorry.... what's TRpm?

It's basically the difference between your expected plus minus (based on team even strength goal differential and your minutes played) and your actual plus minus.... here's Auston Matthews for this past season (output from a script i wrote)

TOR team ES goal diff is 36.0.
The team has played 82.0 games and has an ES goal diff per game of 0.44.
Auston Matthews has played 68.0 games, and 30.92% of each game on average.
Therefore, his expected pm is 9.23 while his actual pm is -9.0.
Matthews TRpm is -18.23.

It's only relative to your team... so a player on a bad team who has a TRpm of 0 is a part of the problem, while a TRpm of 0 on an elite team means you're an equal contributor to the team's success.    

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32 minutes ago, pi2000 said:

It's basically the difference between your expected plus minus (based on team even strength goal differential and your minutes played) and your actual plus minus.... here's Auston Matthews for this past season (output from a script i wrote)


TOR team ES goal diff is 36.0.
The team has played 82.0 games and has an ES goal diff per game of 0.44.
Auston Matthews has played 68.0 games, and 30.92% of each game on average.
Therefore, his expected pm is 9.23 while his actual pm is -9.0.
Matthews TRpm is -18.23.

It's only relative to your team... so a player on a bad team who has a TRpm of 0 is a part of the problem, while a TRpm of 0 on an elite team means you're an equal contributor to the team's success.    

Why is it -18.23 instead of -9?

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5 minutes ago, WildCard said:

Why is it -18.23 instead of -9?

It's the difference between his expected and actual pm.

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6 minutes ago, WildCard said:

Why is it -18.23 instead of -9?

The actual pm (-9) is 18.23 goals below the expected pm per the formula (+9.23)

Edited by Sabel79
Yeah, what pi said.
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Thought it to be relevant to post this in this thread.  If we are looking to move Risto and gain more offensive weapon, what teams are looking to get a 2/3/4 right handed defenseman and what would be your ask from that team? In no particular order...

Arizona- Hinostroza and Crouse

Chicago- Saad

Dallas- Faska and or pick/prospect

Edmonton- Nugent-Hopkins

LA Kings- Kempe and pick

NJ- Wood and pick

NYR- Buchnevich

SJ- Meier

Tampa- Miller

Vancouver- Virtanen and pick

 

I am looking for JBotts to make a mover similar to the one Nashville and Columbus pulled off in the Jones for Johansen trade. I believe Jones and Risto are very similar players so I am hoping for a return like Nugent-Hopkins, Miller, or Meier.

 

 

 

 

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4 hours ago, sweetlou said:

Thought it to be relevant to post this in this thread.  If we are looking to move Risto and gain more offensive weapon, what teams are looking to get a 2/3/4 right handed defenseman and what would be your ask from that team? In no particular order...

Arizona- Hinostroza and Crouse

Chicago- Saad

Dallas- Faska and or pick/prospect

Edmonton- Nugent-Hopkins

LA Kings- Kempe and pick

NJ- Wood and pick

NYR- Buchnevich

SJ- Meier

Tampa- Miller

Vancouver- Virtanen and pick

 

I am looking for JBotts to make a mover similar to the one Nashville and Columbus pulled off in the Jones for Johansen trade. I believe Jones and Risto are very similar players so I am hoping for a return like Nugent-Hopkins, Miller, or Meier.

 

 

 

 

The only similarity they have are they both play defense in the NHL. 

Risto isn’t close to the same class of defenseman that Jones is unfortunately. 

 

Edited by Brawndo
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