Risto said it's time for him to go?

[LGR4GM]

3 minutes ago, Drunkard said:

I'm afraid trading Ristolainen will be O'Reilly part two. Botterill is the volume shooter type and instead of trading Ristolainen for one good player who can fix our center depth and improve the team next season, he's going to trade him for a basket of lesser pieces in hopes he can hit a bullseye or two with his multiple dart approach. I've said it before, but I fear he trades Ristolainen to Tampa for a package of something like:

Miller (to try to fix his O'Reilly mistake)

Callahan (pure cap dump)

Mediocre prospect (no way they give us a top prospect, when St. Louis only gave up Thompson for O'Reilly)

Late 1st round pick (very late given how good Tampa is, plus we'll be helping them out further by gifting them cap space since Callahan and Miller combined take up a lot more cap space than Ristolainen)

I think that leaves Dahlin exposed to having to carry the defense way too early and with most of the actual value in the Ristolainen trade being futures, the team is worse in the short run. The ironic part is that if any of his long term darts ever actually pan out, it will be the next GM who reaps the benefits instead of Botterill.

 

Dahlin is already carrying the defense because as has been proven ad nauseum on this board, Ristolainen is not good at defending. 

[Broken Ankles]

2 minutes ago, Drunkard said:

I'm afraid trading Ristolainen will be O'Reilly part two. Botterill is the volume shooter type and instead of trading Ristolainen for one good player who can fix our center depth and improve the team next season, he's going to trade him for a basket of lesser pieces in hopes he can hit a bullseye or two with his multiple dart approach. I've said it before, but I fear he trades Ristolainen to Tampa for a package of something like:

 Miller (to try to fix his O'Reilly mistake)

 Callahan (pure cap dump)

Mediocre prospect (no way they give us a top prospect, when St. Louis only gave up Thompson for O'Reilly)

Late 1st round pick (very late given how good Tampa is, plus we'll be helping them out further by gifting them cap space since Callahan and Miller combined take up a lot more cap space than Ristolainen)

I think that leaves Dahlin exposed to having to carry the defense way too early and with most of the actual value in the Ristolainen trade being futures, the team is worse in the short run. The ironic part is that if any of his long term darts ever actually pan out, it will be the next GM who reaps the benefits instead of Botterill.

 

History is on your side.  Those that cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat.  I hope a guy with an MBA has enough sense not to do that.  We will find out in the next 3 weeks.   Anticipation....

[Drunkard]

4 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

Dahlin is already carrying the defense because as has been proven ad nauseum on this board, Ristolainen is not good at defending. 

He may be carrying the defense when it comes to pure talent, but he was 4th in time on ice per game behind Ristolainen, Montour, and even Bogosian last season.

[LGR4GM]

3 minutes ago, Drunkard said:

He may be carrying the defense when it comes to pure talent, but he was 4th in time on ice per game behind Ristolainen, Montour, and even Bogosian last season.

And he won' be this season. 

[dudacek]

22 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

Dahlin is already carrying the defense because as has been proven ad nauseum on this board, Ristolainen is not good at defending. 

 

Oh my god, Dahlin is the best young player the Sabres have had since Mogilny and might become the best all time, but if you take age out of the equation, he was a high-risk, high-reward 2nd pairing defenceman last year. He hardly carried the defence.

hyperbole much?

 

16 minutes ago, Drunkard said:

He may be carrying the defense when it comes to pure talent, but he was 4th in time on ice per game behind Ristolainen, Montour, and even Bogosian last season.

 

Thank you.

[LGR4GM]

Stats say otherwise. No I am not posting them. Look them up yourself. Eyetest also said otherwise. 

[LGR4GM]

10 minutes ago, dudacek said:

 

Oh my god, Dahlin is the best young player the Sabres have had since Mogilny and might become the best all time, but if you take age out of the equation, he was a high-risk, high-reward 2nd pairing defenceman last year. He hardly carried the defence.

hyperbole much?

 

 

Thank you.

... huh didn't realize that ice time was a direct indicator of your defensive play. Learn something knew everyday. 

Edited June 13, 2019 by LGR4GM

[dudacek]

Stats say a lot of things, especially when you get to pick which ones are important.

Carried the defence to what? 

Eyetest showed me a guy who led the team in breakout passes and in horrendous giveaways. He was good at defending the line and not so good at containing from the corners. He often got to play with our best players in friendly situations. He rarely matched against the other team’s top guys in defensive roles.

He’s the most talented skater the Sabres have had since Gilbert, smart, competitive and a great kid too. And he will be the best defenceman in franchise history and probably win multiple Norris trophies.

But he was also a boy against men last year. If you think he played like a top-pairing defenceman, I can only conclude you watched with blinders on.

Edited June 13, 2019 by dudacek

[dudacek]

7 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

... huh didn't realize that ice time was a direct indicator of your defensive play. Learn something knew everyday. 

Carried the defence by it’s very nature implies a ton of ice time.

Edited June 13, 2019 by dudacek

[LGR4GM]

2 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Stats say a lot of things, especially when you get to pick which ones are important.

Carried the defence to what? 

Eyetest showed me a guy who 1)  led the team in breakout passes and in horrendous giveaways. He was good at defending the line and 2) not so good at containing from the corners. 3) He often got to play with our best players in friendly situations. 4) He rarely matched against the other team’s top guys in defensive roles.

He’s the most talented skater the Sabres have had since Gilbert, smart, competitive and a great kid too. And he will be the best defenceman in franchise history and probably win multiple Norris trophies.

But he was also a boy against men last year. If you think he played like a top-pairing defenceman, I can only conclude you watched with blinders on.

Provide proof of this. 

and this

and this

and this

Burden of proof is on you. I am sick of disproving people on this board when they say stuff. So prove to me you are right. 

[SwampD]

I want to see the Carrying the Defense stat first.

[LGR4GM]

34 minutes ago, SwampD said:

I want to see the Carrying the Defense stat first.

No. I've done enough work. Everyone else gets to toss their ***** at the wall and walk away. Prove me wrong on those points. 

[SwampD]

18 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

No. I've done enough work. Everyone else gets to toss their ***** at the wall and walk away. Prove me wrong on those points. 

I'm not doing that. I shouldn't have to. Dahlin did not carry the defense. 

[TrueBlueGED]

35 minutes ago, SwampD said:

I'm not doing that. I shouldn't have to. Dahlin did not carry the defense. 

Correct. And no stat exists to say he did, even if he did. However, there are a lot of stats that say he was our best defenseman in basically every aspect of the game. 

[SwampD]

1 minute ago, TrueBlueGED said:

Correct. And no stat exists to say he did, even if he did. However, there are a lot of stats that say he was our best defenseman in basically every aspect of the game. 

As was stated in upthread, their are plenty of things that make a good defensemen that there are no stat for. 

[TrueBlueGED]

9 minutes ago, SwampD said:

As was stated in upthread, their are plenty of things that make a good defensemen that there are no stat for. 

Let's go with the assumption that this is true. That doesn't necessarily mean a defenseman who is good at these things is good enough at them to overcome the other aspects they're bad at. At best, it's a balancing act. Conversely, just because a defenseman struggles with something doesn't mean the value he generates in other ways isn't enough to compensate. Dahlin's turnovers were brought up earlier, and he did lead the defense corps in turnovers. But he also led in takeaways and his turnover ratio was equal to that of Risto all while generating way more in terms of shots and scoring chances. So who cares? 

[SwampD]

21 minutes ago, TrueBlueGED said:

Let's go with the assumption that this is true. That doesn't necessarily mean a defenseman who is good at these things is good enough at them to overcome the other aspects they're bad at. At best, it's a balancing act. Conversely, just because a defenseman struggles with something doesn't mean the value he generates in other ways isn't enough to compensate. Dahlin's turnovers were brought up earlier, and he did lead the defense corps in turnovers. But he also led in takeaways and his turnover ratio was equal to that of Risto all while generating way more in terms of shots and scoring chances. So who cares? 

So you agree with dudacek and me.

teehee.

[Thorny]

8 hours ago, TrueBlueGED said:

Conceptually, I just don't think you need to put your best two defenseman on the top pair. I also don't think the minutes that Risto plays have to exist. Balance things across the top-4 rather than saddling one pair with it. That would be my approach. 

You've said you don't believe in addition by subtraction, but if we do move Risto for a forward, are you ok with rolling a balanced top 4 with the D currently here, sans Risto?

[TrueBlueGED]

7 minutes ago, Thorny said:

You've said you don't believe in addition by subtraction, but if we do move Risto for a forward, are you ok with rolling a balanced top 4 with the D currently here, sans Risto?

No, I at least need a placeholder who can play in the NHL without embarrassing himself. I've mentioned Stralman before, and I think he could be an ideal fit for a couple of years. 

[TrueBlueGED]

20 minutes ago, SwampD said:

So you agree with dudacek and me.

teehee.

Well, I don't disagree as much as you might think I do. It's not that I think being able to clear the crease and whatnot have no value at all, I just don't think they're as valuable as you think they are relative to other skills. I also think that if their relative value was as high as you think it is, that it would eventually bear out in goal and shot results. 

Edited June 13, 2019 by TrueBlueGED

[SwampD]

4 hours ago, TrueBlueGED said:

Well, I don't disagree as much as you might think I do. It's not that I think being able to clear the crease and whatnot have no value at all, I just don't think they're as valuable as you think they are relative to other skills. I also think that if their relative value was as high as you think it is, that it would eventually bear out in goal and shot results. 

This is the part about a stats argument that drives me crazy (not you in particular, just in general).

Not every D man is everything on every shift. Different D men have different responsibilities are matched up with opponents for different reasons.

Pilut is awesome when he has the puck on his stick exiting the zone or in the O-zone. He is also awful on the boards and often gets pwned on them and therefore doesn't get a chance to have the puck on his stick exiting the zone,… and there is no stat that says that happened.

I also have to take any criticism of any Dman we have with a grain of salt. Defense is a 5 man endeavor. Until we have more actual NHL forwards I can't hold it against any of them (yes, I'm a defensemen at heart, even though I hate skating backwards.)

 

Edited June 14, 2019 by SwampD

[Radar]

Probably in the minority but I don't want to trade Risto. I would rather trade the seventh pick for help on offense. You create a hole on defense by trading what I believe is a good defenseman. Maybe not as good as some would like but certainly a solid NHL defenseman. On the other hand the number seven pick is a gamble to be a better player than Risto whether he's a forward or defenseman. See what you could get in a known player(s) for the pick.

[Sabres Fan in NS]

1 minute ago, Radar said:

Probably in the minority but I don't want to trade Risto. I would rather trade the seventh pick for help on offense. You create a hole on defense by trading what I believe is a good defenseman. Maybe not as good as some would like but certainly a solid NHL defenseman. On the other hand the number seven pick is a gamble to be a better player than Risto whether he's a forward or defenseman. See what you could get in a known player(s) for the pick.

Gave you a thumbs up thingie for the not trading Risto part.

I tend to think we should keep #7 in a pretty deep draft.  The chances are pretty good that we will get a good NHL player at #7.

[Radar]

6 minutes ago, New Scotland (NS) said:

Gave you a thumbs up thingie for the not trading Risto part.

I tend to think we should keep #7 in a pretty deep draft.  The chances are pretty good that we will get a good NHL player at #7.

Totally agree on holding  #7 if you can get help on the offense without trading it away while still not creating another hole in our defense by trading Risto. Just don't know if we have assets to do it aside from that pick without weakening the existing team.

[Berg]

Yes..trade Risto and he will win Stanley Cup like ROR with another team..