2019 College UFAs

[GASabresIUFAN]

3 minutes ago, shrader said:

I forget the specifics of the timeline there, but was Petersen already gone before they drafted UPL?

Not sure, but because of their age difference, I’m not sure having Petersen, 24, would have stopped Jbot from drafting UPL who just turned 20.

[rakish]

1 hour ago, LGR4GM said:

Well that makes me less excited. There aren't any good forwards? 

I think that's going a bit far, I meant no one is ready right now. The top 4 or 5 guys are comparable to CJ Smith, Conor Sheary, and Jimmy Vesey at this age, Vesey didn't have his big year until age 21. Sheary not til 23.

[LGR4GM]

5 minutes ago, utsvävande said:

I think that's going a bit far, I meant no one is ready right now. The top 4 or 5 guys are comparable to CJ Smith, Conor Sheary, and Jimmy Vesey at this age, Vesey didn't have his big year until age 21. Sheary not til 23.

So it is not an issue that Chafee didn't really show up until this past year at 21? 

[rakish]

When I first started doing the draft stuff, I would subtract age 16 from age 17, in the thought process that I was looking for players that were getting better. For a while, I thought I was looking for Sam Bennett, who got a lot better between 16 and 17. A couple years later I decided I wasn't looking for Sam Bennett, now I add 16 and 17, and I think I get better results.

That said, I think the stakes are really small signing college free agents, I'd sign a couple.

It's my inkling that the CHL ends a couple years too early, and a lot of prospects who go to college develop better. I'm pretty sure Botterill sees it the same way. I'd like to see NCAA rules changed so you can go CHL to NCAA, which, by my understanding, you can't do now.

[LGR4GM]

19 minutes ago, utsvävande said:

When I first started doing the draft stuff, I would subtract age 16 from age 17, in the thought process that I was looking for players that were getting better. For a while, I thought I was looking for Sam Bennett, who got a lot better between 16 and 17. A couple years later I decided I wasn't looking for Sam Bennett, now I add 16 and 17, and I think I get better results.

That said, I think the stakes are really small signing college free agents, I'd sign a couple.

It's my inkling that the CHL ends a couple years too early, and a lot of prospects who go to college develop better. I'm pretty sure Botterill sees it the same way. I'd like to see NCAA rules changed so you can go CHL to NCAA, which, by my understanding, you can't do now.

The center from Penn State is also interesting to me. I agree with you, I think some kids at 18 simply aren't ready and therefore get missed. Young men at 21, that's 3 more years of maturing and developing. 

NCAA considers the CHL a pro league because you technically get compensation. 

[Crusader1969]

3 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Fair enough, but the Vesey, Hayes, Petersen route is becoming much more common and a good source for talent.  How much better would our goaltending future look with both Petersen and UPL in the pipeline?  

On 3/13/2019 at 3:14 PM, shrader said:

Sadly this list doesn't include their previous team, but you'll find plenty.  It's all going to depend on your definition of "made an impact".  The recent part will also be somewhat limited since the list requires 100 games played.

 

Edit: And now I found this column through google which specifically describes a few.

This would then beg the question - are there any drafted NCAA players who could forgo signing with their team this summer?   I haven't heard much of anything, so Im thinking there isnt' a big name 

 

[shrader]

19 minutes ago, Crusader1969 said:

This would then beg the question - are there any drafted NCAA players who could forgo signing with their team this summer?   I haven't heard much of anything, so Im thinking there isnt' a big name 

 

Yeah, that definitely looks to be the case.  There really aren't that many high end seniors in general and it looks like most of those were undrafted.  GA said upthread that it's fairly common, but I really don't think it is.  The names we have seen go that route really are just a small drop in the bucket compared to the full list of drafted players.  That's mostly just a matter of semantics though, whether or not you'd call it common.

[GASabresIUFAN]

20 hours ago, shrader said:

Yeah, that definitely looks to be the case.  There really aren't that many high end seniors in general and it looks like most of those were undrafted.  GA said upthread that it's fairly common, but I really don't think it is.  The names we have seen go that route really are just a small drop in the bucket compared to the full list of drafted players.  That's mostly just a matter of semantics though, whether or not you'd call it common.

I didn’t say fairly common. I said it’s becoming much more common. Wheeler was the 1st one I remember and that was back in 2004.  However Hayes in 2014, followed by Vesey in 2016 and 3 major players in 2017, Petersen, Butcher and Kerfoot, kind of opened my eyes that this was a growing trend.  Hickey was traded to us in 2018 and we managed to get him signed just weeks before he became a UFA. I’m sure there are others, but those are the one that stick out in my memory possibly because the Sabres were involved in so many. For example Petersen was ours, as was Vesey briefly. Hickey we signed and I wanted Butcher on the Sabres.  

[shrader]

15 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

I didn’t say fairly common. I said it’s becoming much more common. Wheeler was the 1st one I remember and that was back in 2004.  However Hayes in 2014, followed by Vesey in 2016 and 3 major players in 2017, Petersen, Butcher and Kerfoot, kind of opened my eyes that this was a growing trend.  Hickey was traded to us in 2018 and we managed to get him signed just weeks before he became a UFA. I’m sure there are others, but those are the one that stick out in my memory possibly because the Sabres were involved in so many. For example Petersen was ours, as was Vesey briefly. Hickey we signed and I wanted Butcher on the Sabres.  

So basically we had a one year spike.  I see that and I'm much more curious about whether or not there was something specific about that year.  I'd guess that it's just as much of a coincidence as the fact that there's multiple Harvard players on that list.

Hickey really doesn't enter the discussion since he signed with Buffalo as soon as possible.  He officially signed his deal on July 1st, the first day allowed by the CBA.  He would have had to wait until August 1st for free agency.  That's not a sign of a guy who was flirting with free agency.  Maybe things are different if he had remained with Arizona, but we can only deal with what actually happened.  So to say that this is something that happened to Buffalo a lot is again, more than likely just a coincidence.  You're tying three cases together, but only one was truly a case of a guy spurning the Sabres.

1. Petersen is the only one. 
2. With Vesey, Tim Murray traded for a guy who was already on the record as saying he was going to free agency.
3. Hickey signed as quickly as possible after the trade

 

There's one positive out of this whole discussion though.  It just goes to show just how rare this move really is.  It's really not worth the stress that some like to induce on themselves each time a college player is drafted, "we'll lose him in 4 years when he refuses to sign".  It happens just about as often as the Sabres win two games in a row.