Jump to content
sweetlou

2019 Off Season

Recommended Posts

1 hour ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

You didn’t read the chart.

It shows that outside our top line, our forwards are consistently underperforming their roster slot compared to the NHL.  

I did, my problem was he used numbers instead of names. 

Considering we had 5 4th line players I'm not surprised. Also idk who mittelstadt is in there, I'd expect with a decent winger he'll shoot up. 

It's just 1 measure as well. We know we didn't score enough. Getting better players will certainly help. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Keep:  LW Skinner, C Eichel, LW Rodrigues, D Dahlin, RW Reinhart, RW Pominville, C Larsson, D Pilut, D McCabe, RW Okposo (for now; overpaid), D Bogosian, D Montour (GAR sample is too small)

Use in easier situations (ie, their EV_GAR sucked):  C Mittelstadt, D Ristolainen, D Nelson, LW Sheary, C Girgensons

Send down: RW Thompson, D Borgen

Wait and see (too few games): LW Olofsson, RW Nylander, LW Smith

Shitcan: C Sobotka, D Scandella, D Hunwick, LW Wilson, maybe Okposo based on $

 

Result:

Skinner-Eichel-Reinhart

____?___-___?___-Pominville

Rodrigues-Mittelstadt-Okposo

Sheary-Larsson-Girgensons?

(Olofsson/Smith)-(____?____)-(Nylander/Thompson)

 

____?____-____?____

Dahlin-Ristolainen

McCabe-Montour

(Pilut)-(Bogosian) (note: I'm not shitting on Bogosian here, but we need a successful #1RD, we know Risto did't do it, I'm not sure Montour can do it, and that logjams Bogo)

 

What we're missing: LW2, C2, C5, LD1, RD1.

You already know what we're missing.  Top defensive talent while Dahlin develops and secondary scoring.

LW2: We need secondary scoring.  Erod played well in bottom six, keep him there.  Sheary was too inconsistent, give him a better chance to find success in the bottom six.  Girgensons struggled even in a bottom six role, but his OZstart% was crazy; a different coach will ease up on that.  We'll need to acquire a scoring LW.  If Skinner leaves, wit only exacerbates the problem.

C2: Same story here. Need secondary scoring.  MIttelstadt developed, but couldn't provide enough offense to improve the team.  This is a hole left by ROR taht still needs to be filled, and if playoffs next year are the goal, we'll need to acquire a scoring C.

LD1: Dahlin will develop and be amazing.  But this season he successfully contributed at the LD2 position against not-top-tier opponents, according to the usage charts.  It would be very optimistic to expect Dahlin to shut down top lines well enough and consistently to make playoffs.  McCabe ended up against tough competition late in the season, and struggled, but is usually solid against weaker opponents- if he were pushed to LD3, he would undoubtedly perform.

RD1: Risto has been bearing a huge workload as far as quality of competition and, by many metrics, has been struggling with it.  He needs to see a mixture of easier opponents to be successful.  Meanwhile, Montour played with success at the RD2 position but may not be able to carry a team into the playoffs on the top pair.  This logjams Bogosian into the 7th defenseman.

sabresgar.jpg

Edited by IKnowPhysics

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

Also idk who mittelstadt is in there, I'd expect with a decent winger he'll shoot up. 

It's just 1 measure as well. We know we didn't score enough. Getting better players will certainly help. 

Only if Casey improves. Remember he played with Sam for a while as Housley tried to spread out scoring.  Free agency is the key for me. If JBot doesn't spend some of that money he saved this year we won't make much quick progress. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

@IKnowPhysics

good analysis, but Jbot is moving on from Pommers, especially since we can’t move on from KO.

also it’s time to move from Larsson and Girgensons.  They are simply to inconsistent and produce nothing  offensively to return any longer.  

I agree on Bogo.  His best slot is 3rd pairing RHD.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

@IKnowPhysics

good analysis, but Jbot is moving on from Pommers, especially since we can’t move on from KO.

also it’s time to move from Larsson and Girgensons.  They are simply to inconsistent and produce nothing  offensively to return any longer.  

I agree on Bogo.  His best slot is 3rd pairing RHD.  

i dont mind keeping Larsson on the 4th line. Girgensons time has come and gone - time to pull the plug. 

If Sabres sign Skinner for $8mill Per. What would they have left to spend in FA? Assuming Scandella is moved off the books. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
33 minutes ago, Crusader1969 said:

i dont mind keeping Larsson on the 4th line. Girgensons time has come and gone - time to pull the plug. 

If Sabres sign Skinner for $8mill Per. What would they have left to spend in FA? Assuming Scandella is moved off the books. 

my quick calculation that if the Sabres offer slight raises to Erod, Larsson, Ulmark and McCabe and have 2 of Nylander, Smith, Olofsson or Thompson on the opening night roster.

Sign Skinner for $9mill.  Move Scandella for a bag of pucks or late rd draft pick

They still have about $20mill in cap.   They need to go out and spend that money (maybe even over pay to bring in a 2nd line Center).

One of Duchene, Hayes or Pavelski need to be on the opening night roster next Oct.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
43 minutes ago, Crusader1969 said:

i dont mind keeping Larsson on the 4th line. Girgensons time has come and gone - time to pull the plug. 

If Sabres sign Skinner for $8mill Per. What would they have left to spend in FA? Assuming Scandella is moved off the books. 

 

5 minutes ago, Crusader1969 said:

my quick calculation that if the Sabres offer slight raises to Erod, Larsson, Ulmark and McCabe and have 2 of Nylander, Smith, Olofsson or Thompson on the opening night roster.

Sign Skinner for $9mill.  Move Scandella for a bag of pucks or late rd draft pick

They still have about $20mill in cap.   They need to go out and spend that money (maybe even over pay to bring in a 2nd line Center).

One of Duchene, Hayes or Pavelski need to be on the opening night roster next Oct.

You know cap speculation is one of my favorite things.  

The Status Quo approach would cost about 72.5 mill.  That means Jbot wants to get better by getting younger and better coaching.  This means letting Pommers and Girgensons walk.  This means demoting Hunwick to the minors which would leave a 1.1 cap hit.  It also means re-signing Skinner (8)m McCabe (3.5), Ullmark (1.5), Larsson (1.6) and ERod (1.875) and giving roster spots to Olofsson, Nylander, Thompson and Pilut.

That teams looks something like

Skinner Eichel Olofsson

Thompson Erod Reinhart

Sheary Mitts Nylander

Wilson Larsson Okposo

Sobotka

Dahlin Montour

McCabe Ristolainen

Pilut Bogosian

Scandella Nelson

Hutton Ullmark

Not impressed?  Me either.

I’m predicting bolder moves this summer. I’m going out on the limb and say Risto and Scandella get traded. We acquire a vet D like Martinez and forward JT Miller. Olofsson and Nylander makes the roster with Thomspon traded or starting in the AHL.  Sobotka gets lent to a team in the KHL.  

Only RFAs being re-signed are McCabe, Erod and maybe Ullmark if Jbot can’t find a vet goalie he likes.  He needs a 3 year window to bring UPL along.  However he tenders deals to Larsson and Girgensons to make it easier to trade them for draft picks or depth prospects for the Amerks.  

Skinner stays for $8 per year once Jbot lays out his plan for next season to him.

The only FA we sign is Donskoi which would cost 4 per year.

My team looks like this

Skinner Eichel Olofsson

Sheary Miller Reinhart

Nylander Mitts Donskoi

Wilson Erod Okposo

Dahlin Martinez

McCabe Montour

Pilut Bogosian

Hunwick Nelson

Hutton Ullmark

Cost $73.8 with 3.2 dead money for Sobotka and Hodgkin.

 

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

 

You know cap speculation is one of my favorite things.  

The Status Quo approach would cost about 72.5 mill.  That means Jbot wants to get better by getting younger and better coaching.  This means letting Pommers and Girgensons walk.  This means demoting Hunwick to the minors which would leave a 1.1 cap hit.  It also means re-signing Skinner (8)m McCabe (3.5), Ullmark (1.5), Larsson (1.6) and ERod (1.875) and giving roster spots to Olofsson, Nylander, Thompson and Pilut.

That teams looks something like

Skinner Eichel Olofsson

Thompson Erod Reinhart

Sheary Mitts Nylander

Wilson Larsson Okposo

Sobotka

Dahlin Montour

McCabe Ristolainen

Pilut Bogosian

Scandella Nelson

Hutton Ullmark

Not impressed?  Me either.

I’m predicting bolder moves this summer. I’m going out on the limb and say Risto and Scandella get traded. We acquire a vet D like Martinez and forward JT Miller. Olofsson and Nylander makes the roster with Thomspon traded or starting in the AHL.  Sobotka gets lent to a team in the KHL.  

Only RFAs being re-signed are McCabe, Erod and maybe Ullmark if Jbot can’t find a vet goalie he likes.  He needs a 3 year window to bring UPL along.  However he tenders deals to Larsson and Girgensons to make it easier to trade them for draft picks or depth prospects for the Amerks.  

Skinner stays for $8 per year once Jbot lays out his plan for next season to him.

The only FA we sign is Donskoi which would cost 4 per year.

My team looks like this

Skinner Eichel Olofsson

Sheary Miller Reinhart

Nylander Mitts Donskoi

Wilson Erod Okposo

Dahlin Martinez

McCabe Montour

Pilut Bogosian

Hunwick Nelson

Hutton Ullmark

Cost $73.8 with 3.2 dead money for Sobotka and Hodgkin.

 

 

Cap is about $83 Million. I'm taking a bigger swing in the UFA market myself.

With Risto it will be interesting what the new coach thinks they can do with him. I could see most thinking they can "fix" him or put in a position to be successful.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Re: Bogo. He’s got 1 more year on a heavy salary. 

Would it not be possible to trade him for a player with equal salary.... but a forward (a long-term piece) with longer term that a team wants to get out from under? Cap hit is negligible.... more about a team that’s going to want some free cap space soon.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
33 minutes ago, Die Hard said:

Re: Bogo. He’s got 1 more year on a heavy salary. 

Would it not be possible to trade him for a player with equal salary.... but a forward (a long-term piece) with longer term that a team wants to get out from under? Cap hit is negligible.... more about a team that’s going to want some free cap space soon.

i dont think its necessary, Sabres will have plenty cap space.  They could be the one taking on a bad contract if the team was willing to give up a draft pick or prospect.

  • Like (+1) 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
18 minutes ago, Crusader1969 said:

i dont think its necessary, Sabres will have plenty cap space.  They could be the one taking on a bad contract if the team was willing to give up a draft pick or prospect.

I like that strategy... but the only league I’ve seen it prominently used is the NBA. Except that 1 season for the Vegas Knights expansion... but that seemed to be more due to an extenuating circumstance (outlier).

Edited by Die Hard

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

https://theathletic.com/921880/2019/04/13/who-stays-and-who-goes-an-early-projection-of-which-players-will-remain-on-the-sabres-roster-in-2019-20/

From the Athletic.  

1) the Core: Eichel, Dahlin, Casey, Mountour

1a) Also staying: Samson, Olofsson, Pilut, Thompson, Borgen and Carter (although he implies but doesn't say Pilut Thompson and Borgen will be in Buffalo to start next year).  I think Borgen and maybe Thompson start next year in Roch.

2) Probably back: Bogosian, Nelson, CJ Smith (imho he'll be back in Roch), Hunwick (I think he's more then likely gone after the draft), McCabe, Erod, Sheary, Ullmark and Wilson.

3) "Up in the Air" - I read this as status unknown:  Skinner, Risto, Pominville (I'd place in group 4), Scandella, and Nylander (agree he is consistently inconsistent).

4) Gone: Moulson, Sobotka, O'Regan, Tennyson, One of Larsson or Girgensons (or both) and Elie.

Quote

Based on this template, the Sabres will have major holes to fill. Skinner will determine whether they need a first-line left winger. Botterill needs a center to take pressure off Mittelstadt. He’ll need a right winger who can score. The GM may have to remake the fourth line.

I'm sorry, but the D and goaltending gave 270 goals.  Changes needs to happen there as well.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, WildCard said:

 

Looks like we can bank on a foreign dman joining us every offseason from now until the end of time. I’m fine with that.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, Hoss said:

Looks like we can bank on a foreign dman joining us every offseason from now until the end of time. I’m fine with that.

He's a 21 year old left-handed Finnish C/LW. 5'8, 181lbs

https://www.eliteprospects.com/player/152112/arttu-ruotsalainen

If Liifga is the Finnish top league, which I believe it is, then he's already played two years there

Rookie season: 9-11-20 in 60gp

Sophomore season: 21-21-42 in 59gp

I think it's rakish that has the conversion formula for points from league to league

 

Edited by WildCard

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Bonus write up on Oskari

Undrafted 20-year-old Arttu Ruotsalainen has been one of the best centres in the entire Liiga. So far, he has six goals and a total of 12 points in the first 11 games. He plays in every situation of Ilves and has recorded a 53.4 Corsi for percentage. He might very well get signed by an NHL organisation next summer.

Oskari Laaksonen (Buffalo Sabres’ third-round selection in 2017) has had an excellent start to his season with the team, as he already put up six points in the first 11 games. Laaksonen has good skating and intriguing offensive skill set. He has already shown that he can quarterback a power play and produce as a defenceman. Sabres must be very pleased with Laaksonen’s development so far.

https://dobberprospects.com/liiga-report-the-rundown/

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
15 minutes ago, WildCard said:

He's a 21 year old left-handed Finnish C/LW. 5'8, 181lbs

https://www.eliteprospects.com/player/152112/arttu-ruotsalainen

If Liifga is the Finnish top league, which I believe it is, then he's already played two years there

Rookie season: 9-11-20 in 60gp

Sophomore season: 21-21-42 in 59gp

I think it's rakish that has the conversion formula for points from league to league

 

I literally read that he was a forward but still made him a defenseman. Reading comprehension.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

As someone stated in another thread, I do like Filppula for third line center as I like the idea of putting Mitts on a top six wing and still acquiring a second line center for long term.    Colin Wilson would be another guy I would sign for a couple of years to be third line center.

Still eyeing Duchene, Hayes, or trade for William Karlsson to center second line.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Looking at major overhaul on team, and some more interesting off season move ideas...

Sign our own RFA's-

McCabe- 3yrs- $3M AAV

ERod- 2yrs- $1.25M AAV

Sign UFA's-

Skinner- 6/7 yrs- $8M AAV

Ferland- 4yrs- $4M AAV

Tanev- 3yrs- $2.75M AAV

Chairot- 2yrs- $2.5M AAV

 

Trades-

Nylander and Sheary to Pittsburgh for Kessel and DeSmith.

Thompson and Ullmark to Vegas for rights to RFA William Karlsson.  Sign RFA Karlsson to 6yr, $6.5M AAV contract.

Okposo and Risto to Edmonton for Lucic, Benning, and 2020 3rd rd pick.

Scandella to Montreal for 2020 6th rd pick.

Sobotka to Ottawa for 2020 6th rd pick, or buyout or KHL.

 

Offer sheet Kasperi Kapanen of Toronto a 3yr $4M AAV.  Would cost Sabres 2020 2nd rd pick in compensation.

New line up-

Forwards-

Olofsson- Eichel- Kessel

Skinner- Karlsson- Reinhart

Ferland- Mitts- Kapanen

Lucic- ERod- Tanev

extras- Wilson, Routsalainen

Defense-

Dahlin-Montour

McCabe- Bogo

Chairot- Benning

extra- Pilut, Nelson

Goalies-

Hutton

DeSmith

 

 

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Well, looks like this is the make or break moment for Botterill.

Need a new head coach, need to revamp the roster, need to get decent returns on the two 1st rdr's either by selection or trade(s) and need to see marked progress in current prospects development.

Something has to give I'd surmise. As it stands now our off season looks to be an active one imho.

  • Like (+1) 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I'd be tempted to call Botterill's off-season to do list unfairly expansive (by, like, a lot), if there wasn't such a large element of "lie in the bed you made" factoring in. 

  • 1st line LW 
  • Middle-6 Winger
  • 2C
  • Viable bottom-6
  • Goaltending?
  • Coach

 

  1. I don't see Botterill on the hook for Skinner, specifically, per se, in that if the player doesn't want to sign, they don't want to sign. But regardless, after 2 full years on the job, 3 summers, and entering into his 3rd full season, he's certainly on the hook for having 1LW addressed. If Skinner walks and he's not replaced, not having found a sustainable solution to the position in that time frame falls on him. 
  2. Who do we even have penciled in as 2RW right now? Was that supposed to be Thompson? 
  3. He traded away our 2C
  4. He's tried, and failed, to figure out the bottom 6 a couple times already
  5. He brought in Hutton, and his chosen tandem crapped out last season. The position has to be better. 
  • Like (+1) 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

 

The coaching conversation got me thinking about what needs to happen for this team to climb out of the basement.  Here's what I came up with:

Mission Critical Items -- i.e. the Sabres need substantial improvement in ALL of these just to get to playoff bubble status.  If one of them fails, they are dead again.

Goaltending

Coaching

D-zone play

 

Secondary Needs -- i.e. in addition to the mission critical items, they need most of these.

Leadership/consistent focus and determination from Jack, Reino, Dahlin and their other top guys

Secondary scoring -- i.e. a few of Sheary, KO, TT, Olofsson, Mittsie, Nylander, CJ Smith and ERod to become consistent producers

Dahlin continues meteoric development and is pretty close to a star #1 defenseman

Re-sign Skinner

Montour proves out as a strong top-3 defenseman

Risto either steps up his play or is traded for an unquestionably good player who delivers on the ice

The above moves plus some others clear the gloom around the franchise and restore the players' confidence in the organization, so that they are less likely to go to pieces the first time adversity hits.

 

*******

 

It's a lot to ask for, but at the same time each of the items by itself seems reasonably possible.  The problem is that the likelihood of most of them hitting is low.  And that's the hole that JB has dug for himself via spotty decision-making in his 1st 2 years of running the show.

  • Like (+1) 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

×
×
  • Create New...