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sweetlou

2019 Off Season

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Of all the big 4 sports, I think the coach is least important in the NBA followed closely by the NHL.  I think this is why only one coach, Scotty Bowman, has wons Cups with more then one franchise and none have done it in the Cap Era.  Imho, the only truly difference making coach in the NHL is Barry Trotz.  

Also I don’t think this team is as far away from being good as many believe.  Some of the holes are large, but not insurmountable.  

I think we need in order

1) A 2nd line center

2) 1 or 2 scoring wingers.  They don’t have to be stars, but guys who can pot 20 goals in the right circumstances.  One will do if the 2nd line center can add 20 goals.

3) 2 Mobile but Defense first D.

If one of the new forwards and d added some physical play all the better. That’s really it.  I understand this maybe easier said then done, but this is far from an impossible task.  There are potential 2nd line centers available in Miller, Duchene and Hayes.  There are scoring wingers available like Donskoi, Burakovsky, even Vanek or Ferland.  

On defense, I might trade for Alec Martinez (31). He has some good hockey left and would bring Cup winning experience to the locker-room.  I like Edmundson or even a Stralman if we want a vet.I also want guys from winning programs.  Guys like Stralman and Martinez know how to win and what a winning locker-room looks and feels like.  

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One of the reasons why a trade with Tampa Bay intrigues me is the chance to bring in some habitual winners.

i think that factor is generally overrated, but morale is such and issue in Buffalo. That's another reason why I think Larsson, Girgensons and Risto are gone; I don't think those guys are "losers" but I do think they have been beaten down and we have too many guys like that. There's only so much losing one can take.

Edited by dudacek

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8 minutes ago, dudacek said:

One of the reasons why a trade with Tampa Bay intrigues me is the chance to bring in some habitual winners.

i think that factor is generally overrated, but morale is such and issue in Buffalo. That's another reason why I think Larsson, Girgensons and Risto are gone; I don't think those guys are "losers" but I do think they have been beaten down and we have too many guys like that. There's only so much losing one can take.

So many of our of guys, even the acquired guys like Kane and ROR didn’t come from winning programs.  Call it the Chris Drury effect, but we need someone in that locker-room that has won it all and can stand up and say what needs to be done and is important enough player that people will listen.  That’s why Martínez.

However all the coaching and leadership means nothing without the right talent in the right places.

 

 

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On 3/28/2019 at 12:04 PM, dudacek said:

One of the reasons why a trade with Tampa Bay intrigues me is the chance to bring in some habitual winners.

i think that factor is generally overrated, but morale is such and issue in Buffalo. That's another reason why I think Larsson, Girgensons and Risto are gone; I don't think those guys are "losers" but I do think they have been beaten down and we have too many guys like that. There's only so much losing one can take.

I just don't know if JBotts or Tampa trades within the division.

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 Would love to see JBotts bring in some younger vets to fill in the roster and let Nylander, Thompson start the year in Rochester. Let them continue to develop and be first call ups. 

I am still up in the air on Skinner.  I want him to sign but I don't want it longer than 7 years or for more than $8 AAV.  We need more players not just a few. 

Trade Scandella and 2019 6th rd Jets picked Sabres 2021 3rd rd pick(conditional- if he scores 30 goals in any of first two seasons it becomes a 2nd rd pick)  to Jets for Ehlers and Lowry.

Trade Risto and Sobotka to Vancouver for Virtanen, Stetcher and 2019 2nd rd pick.

Use 2nd rd pick gained in Risto trade to offer sheet Kapanen from Toronto at 3 years and $4 million AAV. Overpaying but it ensures Toronto could not match. Kapanen would still be an RFA and the could sign a longer term contract after three years.

 

UFA's

Dzingel, Ferland, and Donskoi also should be in the $5 mil AAV and Buffalo should pursue at least one of them if we don't sign Skinner.

Tanev and Connolly are a couple of wingers that could probably be had for around $3 mil AAV.

On defense I would love to add a guy like McQuiad or Polak on a one year 2 Mil AAV. to add some physicality to the back end. 

What I would like the line up to look like:

Skinner- Eichel- Kapanen

Ehlers- Mitts- Reinhart

Sheary- Lowry- Connolly(Tanev)

Wilson- ERod- Virtanen

Defense-

Dahlin- Montour

McCabe- Stetcher

Pilut- Bogo

Goalie-

Hutton

Ullmark

 

 

 

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41 minutes ago, sweetlou said:

 Would love to see JBotts bring in some younger vets to fill in the roster and let Nylander, Thompson start the year in Rochester. Let them continue to develop and be first call ups. 

I am still up in the air on Skinner.  I want him to sign but I don't want it longer than 7 years or for more than $8 AAV.  We need more players not just a few. 

Trade Scandella and 2019 6th rd Jets picked Sabres 2021 3rd rd pick(conditional- if he scores 30 goals in any of first two seasons it becomes a 2nd rd pick)  to Jets for Ehlers and Lowry.

Trade Risto and Sobotka to Vancouver for Virtanen, Stetcher and 2019 2nd rd pick.

Use 2nd rd pick gained in Risto trade to offer sheet Kapanen from Toronto at 3 years and $4 million AAV. Overpaying but it ensures Toronto could not match. Kapanen would still be an RFA and the could sign a longer term contract after three years.

 

UFA's

Dzingel, Ferland, and Donskoi also should be in the $5 mil AAV and Buffalo should pursue at least one of them if we don't sign Skinner.

Tanev and Connolly are a couple of wingers that could probably be had for around $3 mil AAV.

On defense I would love to add a guy like McQuiad or Polak on a one year 2 Mil AAV. to add some physicality to the back end. 

What I would like the line up to look like:

Skinner- Eichel- Kapanen

Ehlers- Mitts- Reinhart

Sheary- Lowry- Connolly(Tanev)

Wilson- ERod- Virtanen

Defense-

Dahlin- Montour

McCabe- Stetcher

Pilut- Bogo

Goalie-

Hutton

Ullmark

 

 

 

I stopped at the word offersheet. When that becomes semi-common place, then you may be on to something with projecting rosters. Until then, it’s just EA sports 2020 level of fantasy.

i don’t have the info, but can anyone muster up when the last offersheet was offered to a player AND the team got the player and had to give up draft picks?

and then can someone muster up when it was done before that?

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12 minutes ago, Zamboni said:

I stopped at the word offersheet. When that becomes semi-common place, then you may be on to something with projecting rosters. Until then, it’s just EA sports 2020 level of fantasy.

i don’t have the info, but can anyone muster up when the last offersheet was offered to a player AND the team got the player and had to give up draft picks?

and then can someone muster up when it was done before that?

Dustin Penner in 2007 then Chris Gratton a decade earlier 

 

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_NHL_players_who_have_signed_offer_sheets

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1 hour ago, sweetlou said:

 Would love to see JBotts bring in some younger vets to fill in the roster and let Nylander, Thompson start the year in Rochester. Let them continue to develop and be first call ups. 

I am still up in the air on Skinner.  I want him to sign but I don't want it longer than 7 years or for more than $8 AAV.  We need more players not just a few. 

Trade Scandella and 2019 6th rd Jets picked Sabres 2021 3rd rd pick(conditional- if he scores 30 goals in any of first two seasons it becomes a 2nd rd pick)  to Jets for Ehlers and Lowry.

Trade Risto and Sobotka to Vancouver for Virtanen, Stetcher and 2019 2nd rd pick.

Use 2nd rd pick gained in Risto trade to offer sheet Kapanen from Toronto at 3 years and $4 million AAV. Overpaying but it ensures Toronto could not match. Kapanen would still be an RFA and the could sign a longer term contract after three years.

 

UFA's

Dzingel, Ferland, and Donskoi also should be in the $5 mil AAV and Buffalo should pursue at least one of them if we don't sign Skinner.

Tanev and Connolly are a couple of wingers that could probably be had for around $3 mil AAV.

On defense I would love to add a guy like McQuiad or Polak on a one year 2 Mil AAV. to add some physicality to the back end. 

What I would like the line up to look like:

Skinner- Eichel- Kapanen

Ehlers- Mitts- Reinhart

Sheary- Lowry- Connolly(Tanev)

Wilson- ERod- Virtanen

Defense-

Dahlin- Montour

McCabe- Stetcher

Pilut- Bogo

Goalie-

Hutton

Ullmark

 

 

 

So, are we pretending Okposo doesn't exist, or pretending that $6 million will sit in the press box?

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I have to say I do like the idea of a big offer sheet for Kapanen. Leafs will have financial strains over Marner and at the very least we can help cap cripple them.

Is that still a thing though? Is JBot likely to do that sort of thing or is there unwritten codes among those guys not to f each other up anymore? Dunno.

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Well it’s finally over.  A couple of garbage time wins to screw up the draft position, but at least MIA Skinner was found and closed with 40 goals against a road kill Red Wings team. 

The lottery is Tueday night with us 3 times more likely to draft 7th then 5th.  Yeah.  Although we have a 25% chance of drafting in the top 3.  

Serious questions abound.

1. Skinner’s contract.  Is he gone after the collapse?

2.  PH’s future.  Same question as above.

3. Staff changes.  They are almost certainly coming. Hajt and the goalie coach need to go. 

4. Roster changes.  With most players now on only 1 year deals is there anyone besides Jack, Dahlin and KO who are certain to be back? How much turnover is really warranted or even necessary?  

4a. The defense must change.  We need at least 2 more guys who are good defensively. If Jbot returns everyone and he can, then he has failed us this off-season.  

4b. Forwards.  A 2nd line center is a must and another scoring winger or 2 although Olofsson may have earned one of those jobs. The Thompson Nylander battle for a roster spot next fall should be interesting.  Sobotka has got to go.  

4c. Goalies. Could Ullmark’s collapse lead to a change here? Is there even a replacement. For example; Could Jake Allen be expendable in Stl for cheap and benefit from a change of scenery. 

 

Edited by GASabresIUFAN

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Jake Allen? Hell no.  He had 1 good year and has been bad and declining since. Absolutely not worth it. 

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Talked to a guy last night, our beer league goalie from Jamestown, NY big Nate..  he does think Phil needs to go but wants to keep Chris Taylor with Amerks because of his ability to develop guys. AHL imo if coaching is good allows guys to fix things or strengthen weak spots without NHL speed and pressure.

I wonder how fast UPL develops.

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Binnington emergence is reason Blues are winning.   PS watch Rangers go far next year because of Georgiev (sp).  Sabres need to develop one.

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1 hour ago, LGR4GM said:

Jake Allen? Hell no.  He had 1 good year and has been bad and declining since. Absolutely not worth it. 

It was an example.  He has skills but likely needs a new voice.  Everyone thought Dubnyk was trash and once he got with the right team and system he’s been very solid.  Lehner now also.

 

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We have answered 1 question

PH gone and Todd McLellan is a very possible replacement.  The first step of many.  Completely new coaching staff on it's way with another new system.  Organizational stability takes another blow.

Next stop the lottery.  Then can we get Skinner signed.

Who is likely to return?

100% - Dahlin, Montour, Eichel, Reinhart, Mitts and KO (no one wants his contract).

90% -

1) Hutton - 2 years left on his deal and that's expensive for a 33 year old backup. 

2) Erod - RFA, excellent utility forward and cheap to retain.

75%

1) Bogosian - RHD who gets paid $5+ and plays like someone who earns $1.5. Hard to get some to take on that contract.  Did enough to likely stay for his final year.

2) Sheary - We almost got our monies worth from him and only one year left on his deal.  Could be used as a trade piece in a bigger deal, but our LW is pretty thin

3) Olofsson - 23 year old rookie looked good with Jack but still small sample size.  Will almost certainly be favored to win a job in camp.

4) McCabe - 25 year old D, good penalty killer and our best defensive D-man and an RFA.  Injuries last two year might have Jbot looking another direction

60%

1) Ullmark RFA who has shown promise, but is very leaky at times.  Unless Jbot wants to find a starter in trade or Free Agency over the summer, I think he is likely to return.

2) Pilut - Seems destined to win the 3rd pair LHD job, but our defense needs significant upgrades and he may lose out to an acquired vet.

3) Nelson - See him returning since under a cheap contract as the 7/8 D

4) Nylander - has he done enough to finally earn a job in Buffalo or is he destined to be moved this summer?

50%

1) Skinner - 2 months ago, I'd have had him in the 100% column, but now it's inching toward see yeah!  

2) Thompson - Jbot likes him, but might have been surpassed by Olofsson and Nylander.  Still we need his size and shot.  Another summer of weight training might make a huge difference

40% -

1) Scandella - See Bogo, but since a LHD and smaller contract, he might be easier to move

2) Wilson - utility forward under contract who Jbot likes, but small contract means he could be easily be beaten out for a job and end up in Rochester without cap consequences

25%

1) Ristolainen - May be our only trade piece to get a 2nd line center.  I think the Montour trade is the writing on the wall for his departure

2& 3)  Larsson and Girgensons - only because they are RFAs and cheap to remain, but we need to move on from both.

4) Asplund - had a huge 2nd half and we need centers, but likely starts next year in the AHL again, but should be an early call-up.

5) Smith - UFA has nothing left to prove in the AHL, but is he more then a AAAA player?  

6) Borgen - might be ready, but crowded blue line with "proven" NHLers under contract may make it hard to start the year in Buffalo next fall

10%

1 & 2) Hunwick and Sobotka - both add nothing but cap hits.  They both need to go, but since under contract there is a chance that both could return.  G-D I hope not.

3) Pominville - UFA would need to take a huge paycut to stay and even then it's doubtful with guys like Nylander and Olofsson needing his roster spot.

 

Edited by GASabresIUFAN

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Would it almost be better to let Skinner walk and throw the kitchen sink at Duchene or Hayes?

I really like Olofsson and believe he can score 30 playing on Jacks wing.

Skinner without Jack? whats he really worth?

 

 

 

 

 

 

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5 minutes ago, Crusader1969 said:

Would it almost be better to let Skinner walk and throw the kitchen sink at Duchene or Hayes?

I really like Olofsson and believe he can score 30 playing on Jacks wing.

Skinner without Jack? whats he really worth?

 

 

 

 

 

 

I think this makes sense only if you land 1-2 in the lottery

Edited by CallawaySabres

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22 minutes ago, Crusader1969 said:

Would it almost be better to let Skinner walk and throw the kitchen sink at Duchene or Hayes?

I really like Olofsson and believe he can score 30 playing on Jacks wing.

Skinner without Jack? whats he really worth?

 

 

 

 

 

 

I am not a big fan of this. 

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https://buffalonews.com/2019/04/09/buffalo-sabres-jack-eichel-roster-analytics/?utm_medium=more_stories

Further evidence that our roster lacks adequate talent.  

Sadly unless we win the lottery this is what I see for next year

Skinner?  Jack Olofsson

Sheary.  Miller?  Reinhart

Nylander Mitts Thompspn

Wilson Erod Okposo

Dahlin ?????

McCabe Montour

Pilut Bogosian

Nelson

Hutton ????

Questions

1) is Skinner moving on at this point? If he doesn’t re-sign, Jbot is going to have to find a replacement like Hayes, Miller or Duchene, but are UFAs coming here right now?

2) I think Risto is moved to get JT Miller - directly or indirectly to play 1st line LW if Skinner doesn’t re-sign of 2nd line center.

3) Can Jbot find a good stay at home partner for Dahlin?

4) is Ullmark re-signed or does Jbot try to get a starter until UPL is ready?

Edited by GASabresIUFAN

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Eichel was 19 not 18 his rookie year. Article only looks at Eichel and doesn't analyze the entire roster. Kind of a weak piece of the author is defending Housley. 

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4 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

Eichel was 19 not 18 his rookie year. Article only looks at Eichel and doesn't analyze the entire roster. Kind of a weak piece of the author is defending Housley. 

You didn’t read the chart.

It shows that outside our top line, our forwards are consistently underperforming their roster slot compared to the NHL.  

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49 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

https://buffalonews.com/2019/04/09/buffalo-sabres-jack-eichel-roster-analytics/?utm_medium=more_stories

Further evidence that our roster lacks adequate talent.  

Sadly unless we win the lottery this is what I see for next year

Skinner?  Jack Olofsson

Sheary.  Miller?  Reinhart

Nylander Mitts Thompspn

Wilson Erod Okposo

Dahlin ?????

McCabe Montour

Pilut Bogosian

Nelson

Hutton ????

Questions

1) is Skinner moving on at this point? If he doesn’t re-sign, Jbot is going to have to find a replacement like Hayes, Miller or Duchene, but are UFAs coming here right now?

2) I think Risto is moved to get JT Miller - directly or indirectly to play 1st line LW if Skinner doesn’t re-sign of 2nd line center.

3) Can Jbot find a good stay at home partner for Dahlin?

4) is Ullmark re-signed or does Jbot try to get a starter until UPL is ready?

Can Olofsson play RW? I assumed he was a natural LW.

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3 minutes ago, Crusader1969 said:

Can Olofsson play RW? I assumed he was a natural LW.

Yes, he played RW in Sweden.

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37 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

You didn’t read the chart.

It shows that outside our top line, our forwards are consistently underperforming their roster slot compared to the NHL.  

So analytics confirming eye test once again?

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19 minutes ago, dudacek said:

So analytics confirming eye test once again?

Yep. no surprise there.  you and I have been complaining about the depth on this roster, especially at forward for years.  

Sadly, I thought Jbot had fixed the D entering the season, but not really. Adding Montour was the correct move, but our group, although NHL players is desperately in need of actual D play. 

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