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sweetlou

2019 Off Season

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1 hour ago, LGR4GM said:

Things that don't matter: Hits. Here are the hits per game numbers for all the teams. The only pattern is there is no pattern. Pittsburgh has the most hits and Calgary has the least. Buffalo is near the bottom but Anaheim is near the top. Because hits have no correlation to winning. 

https://www.foxsports.com/nhl/team-stats?season=2018&category=MISCELLANEOUS&group=1&time=0&pos=0&team=1&page=1

 

Imagine the perfect game for you. You hold the puck all 60 minutes. You of course, have zero hits. I had 22 hits. You win 12-0, because my team never had the puck.  And this, of course, proves nothing as to whether hits correlate to winning. To find whether hits correlate to winning, you would have to know the score if I had had 34 hits, or zero hits myself, which, of course, you don't know.

You're taking stats that don't line up (you only hit when you don't have the puck) and your coming to a conclusion as if they did.

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44 minutes ago, Ross Rhea said:

Yup, but start watching closely as he is a minutes eater and on the ice but not necessarily responsible for the goals against. Not saying he isn't responsible some times but more often than not the other players are not doing their job or goalie lets in a soft one and the puck ends up in the net and Risto happens to be on the ice.

Rasmus Dahlin plays 21minutes a night, he's a -2. Bogo, 21 minutes, -2. Scandella 17minutes, -10.  

I don't buy this theory anymore because the evidence says it is inaccurate. If you are playing an extra 3 minutes a night and have allowed 30 more goals than the guys playing 3 minutes less, you are part of the problem. 

6 minutes ago, utsvävande said:

Imagine the perfect game for you. You hold the puck all 60 minutes. You of course, have zero hits. I had 22 hits. You win 12-0, because my team never had the puck.  And this, of course, proves nothing as to whether hits correlate to winning. To find whether hits correlate to winning, you would have to know the score if I had had 34 hits, or zero hits myself, which, of course, you don't know.

You're taking stats that don't line up (you only hit when you don't have the puck) and your coming to a conclusion as if they did.

Exactly. People take hits, assume they are an indicator of something positive and then apply them accordingly even though we don't have evidence they are positive or negative per say. 

Edited by LGR4GM

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10 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

Rasmus Dahlin plays 21minutes a night, he's a -2. Bogo, 21 minutes, -2. Scandella 17minutes, -10.  

I don't buy this theory anymore because the evidence says it is inaccurate. If you are playing an extra 3 minutes a night and have allowed 30 more goals than the guys playing 3 minutes less, you are part of the problem. 

 

I agree.  Plus-Minus isn't a great stat, but it also shouldn't be totally discounted.  And as for the argument he isn't personally responsible for the goals he is on the ice for?  I have an issue with that.  I only have started watching Risto closely for the last month or so, but for alot (most) of the goals he is on the ice for (and there are a LOT of them) he is out of position or looking the other way when the shot is being taken.  

One might say his 'minus' number is due to luck or due to being in the wrong place at the wrong time...but when I watch with my own eyes...its more than that.  He has the skill of a much better player, but it doesn't translate to a total package as much as we want.

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1 hour ago, LGR4GM said:

Other fun Risto facts... he is dead last in the league in +/- with -33

Risto averages 3 or 4 more minutes than any other D-man on the team.  If his minutes can be reduced, then I think his +/- improves.  If he plays more as a 3/4 (which is where I think he belongs), his +/- should improve.  Problem is that we've lacked the depth to test that theory because of talent deficiencies and injuries.  With Montour on board, we'll see now.

Hits may not mean anything to you, but I like having D-men who aren't afraid to initiate some contact.  We have someone who does so and has been remarkably durable in the process.  He has been a workhorse, whether the +/- indicates it or not. 

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18 minutes ago, Carmel Corn said:

Risto averages 3 or 4 more minutes than any other D-man on the team.  If his minutes can be reduced, then I think his +/- improves.  If he plays more as a 3/4 (which is where I think he belongs), his +/- should improve.  Problem is that we've lacked the depth to test that theory because of talent deficiencies and injuries.  With Montour on board, we'll see now.

Hits may not mean anything to you, but I like having D-men who aren't afraid to initiate some contact.  We have someone who does so and has been remarkably durable in the process.  He has been a workhorse, whether the +/- indicates it or not. 

Hits don't mean anything to winning, which is all I care about. 

A workhorse who isn't good enough. You don't constantly end up last just because you play an extra 3 minutes a night. He's bad in his own end, period. 

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30 minutes ago, mjd1001 said:

I agree.  Plus-Minus isn't a great stat, but it also shouldn't be totally discounted.  And as for the argument he isn't personally responsible for the goals he is on the ice for?  I have an issue with that.  I only have started watching Risto closely for the last month or so, but for alot (most) of the goals he is on the ice for (and there are a LOT of them) he is out of position or looking the other way when the shot is being taken.  

One might say his 'minus' number is due to luck or due to being in the wrong place at the wrong time...but when I watch with my own eyes...its more than that.  He has the skill of a much better player, but it doesn't translate to a total package as much as we want.

It isn't a great stat but when you're consistently the worst on your team and in the league, that's a problem. 

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2 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

Hits don't mean anything to winning, which is all I care about. 

A workhorse who isn't good enough. You don't constantly end up last just because you play an extra 3 minutes a night. He's bad in his own end, period. 

If that's the case, then why does the coaching staff keep putting him out there.  They can see +/- stats better than any of us, so if they're running the team based on statistics, he would skate far fewer minutes.  If it's all about winning, then would they not scratch him from the lineup every night...or traded him by now? 

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1 minute ago, Carmel Corn said:

If that's the case, then why does the coaching staff keep putting him out there.  They can see +/- stats better than any of us, so if they're running the team based on statistics, he would skate far fewer minutes.  If it's all about winning, then would they not scratch him from the lineup every night...or traded him by now? 

You're talking about a coach staff that also plays Scandella and Sobotka so...

because they don't make lineups on stats. Nelson Dahlin was a pairing with great corsi. Housley split them up last game and kept Risto Scandella together even though their corsi was trash. They aren't using stats, they are using bias and personal opinions. Maybe they like his physical play even though it doesn't translate to wins. 

Edited by LGR4GM

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So were you on board with trading OReilly last year, after all he was a -23. This year he is a +22 did he magically become +45 better? or is it coaching? or is it better players? cause Risto, just like OReilly last year have/had garbage players around him. Maybe a call to JBots is in order as this boards knows sooooo much more than he does! IMO, to give up on Risto is asinine. 

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1 hour ago, LGR4GM said:

Hits don't mean anything to winning, which is all I care about. 

The number of recorded hits, sure.

But you can’t tell me that a pounding forecheck and how it wears down a team over the course of a game or a series, resulting in turnovers and happy feet doesn’t have a positive impact on the game.

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1 minute ago, dudacek said:

The number of recorded hits, sure.

But you can’t tell me that a pounding forecheck and how it wears down a team over the course of a game or a series, resulting in turnovers and happy feet doesn’t have a positive impact on the game.

Forecheck impo is important but hits aren't. 

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9 minutes ago, Ross Rhea said:

So were you on board with trading OReilly last year, after all he was a -23. This year he is a +22 did he magically become +45 better? or is it coaching? or is it better players? cause Risto, just like OReilly last year have/had garbage players around him. Maybe a call to JBots is in order as this boards knows sooooo much more than he does! IMO, to give up on Risto is asinine. 

I don't like the ROR trade. I'll get more into this tomorrow but +/- isn't the only reason Risto is bad. 

Also, do you have botterill phone number. I'd love to call him. 

This board has to know more to discuss this? Lol, what is the most asinine argument on an internet message board. You aren't an nhl GM so you can't criticize. Lol

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Ristolainen: Corsi% 5v5 related to all other Sabre defenders. He starts in the offensive zone 47% of the time. On ice sh% is 2nd worst on the team. On ice save% is 3rd worst. This is only among defenders. There is just a mountain of data that says Risto has major issues in his own end and his production doesn't negate that. Jack Eichel's 5v5 corsi goes up 4% when Risto is not on the ice with him. 

RistoStats.thumb.PNG.cf8399457046d1abc851f82db2751677.PNG

Edited by LGR4GM

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I will always have a soft spot for Ristolainen for his physicality and pesky play but if I can swing Risto for RNH I’d do it in a heartbeat and seek physicality to replace his.

With that I’d sign Stralman for 2 year at about 6 million to be Dahlin’s partner.

Id like to sign Ferland for under 5mil a year if he’s willing to give us the following Top 6 (assuming Skinner signs)

Skinner - Eichel - Ferland

RNH - Mitts - Reinhart 

 

 

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Another idea-

Resign Skinner to 7 year 53 million - 7.570 mil AAV (if you look at contracts for top LW in Kane, Gaudreau, Marchand, and Landeskogg they are all under 7 mil AAV)

Resign McCabe- 5 years at 4 million AAV

Resign Rodrigues- 2 years at 1.5 mil AAV

Resign Ullmark- 2 years at 2 mil AAV

Sign Ferland- 5 years at 4.5-5 million AAV

Offer sheet Kapanen at 5 years at 4 million AAV- would cost Sabres 2nd rd pick in 2020

Trade- Risto and Reinhart to Vancouver for Horvat, Virtanen, and Stecher

 

Roster

Left Wing Centre Right Wing
BUF
Skinner, Jeff
$7,570,000
LW, RW
UFA
BUF
Eichel, Jack
$10,000,000
C
UFA - 7
Kapanen, Kasperi
$4,000,000
RW
Ferland, Micheal
$4,500,000
LW, RW
UFA
VAN
Horvat, Bo
$5,500,000
C
UFA - 4
BUF
Thompson, Tage
$925,000
C, RW
RFA - 1
BUF
Sheary, Conor
$3,000,000
LW, RW
UFA - 1
BUF
Mittelstadt, Casey
$925,000
C
RFA - 1
VAN
Virtanen, Jake
$1,250,000
RW
RFA - 1
BUF
Wilson, Scott
$1,050,000
LW
UFA - 1
BUF
Rodrigues, Evan
$1,500,000
C, LW
RFA
BUF
Okposo, Kyle
$6,000,000
RW
M-NTC
UFA - 4
BUF
Sobotka, Vladimír
$3,500,000
LW, C
UFA - 1
 
 
 
   
Left Defense Right Defense

Goaltender

BUF
Dahlin, Rasmus
$925,000
D
RFA - 2
BUF
Montour, Brandon
$3,387,500
D
RFA - 1
BUF
Hutton, Carter
$2,750,000
G
UFA - 2
BUF
McCabe, Jake
$4,000,000
D
RFA
BUF
Bogosian, Zach
$5,142,857
D
UFA - 1
BUF
Ullmark, Linus
$2,000,000
G
RFA
BUF
Pilut, Lawrence
$925,000
D
RFA - 1
VAN
Stecher, Troy
$2,325,000
D
RFA - 1
 
BUF
Scandella, Marco
$4,000,000
D
UFA - 1
BUF
Nelson, Casey
$812,500
D
UFA - 1
 
BUF
Hunwick, Matt
$2,250,000
D
UFA - 1
 

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Nobody on the board is advocating trading Risto for the hell of it. If there is a trade out there that improves the forward ranks next season , Botterill makes the move if it makes sense. 

Risto has been misused since he got here, too much TOI and his development pathway was screwed up since he was drafted. 

That being said every coaching staff has had complaints about Risto being uncoachable. He corrects his bad habits then starts to fall right back into them within a week. This is a pattern that goes back to Lindy Ruff’s Tenure. As Liger pointed out addition to his plus/minus, there is the fact that he makes other players worse on the ice when he is out there with them this includes Eichel.  The Eichel Line gives up more shots against when paired with Risto and Scandella, compared to when they were any out with any other pair.

Looking at the chart below, Brandon Montour was acquired to be an upgrade for Risto particularly on moving the puck in and out of the zone

 

4B232F95-2295-4527-BBD3-690D51E77599.png

Edited by Brawndo

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I’d like to see Botts go after Pavelski, though I doubt there any chance he or Thornton leave.

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@sweetlou

There is 0 chance Skinner signs below 8 mill per. He's currently around 9.25 and the Sabres are at 8.25 per according to the rumors. 

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5 hours ago, Ross Rhea said:

So were you on board with trading OReilly last year, after all he was a -23. This year he is a +22 did he magically become +45 better? or is it coaching? or is it better players? cause Risto, just like OReilly last year have/had garbage players around him. Maybe a call to JBots is in order as this boards knows sooooo much more than he does! IMO, to give up on Risto is asinine. 

I like Risto as much as the next guy but at some point you may need to open your mind he's not good at defense. 

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12 hours ago, inkman said:

I like Risto as much as the next guy but at some point you may need to open your mind he's not good at defense. 

That's why Tampa wanted him at the trade deadline and there isnt a GM that wouldnt want him. Hmmmm...... he must have something that is appealing, but not here in Buffalo, we just poopoo anything remotely good and complain how it's been soooooooo long.........

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10 minutes ago, Ross Rhea said:

That's why Tampa wanted him at the trade deadline and there isnt a GM that wouldnt want him. Hmmmm...... he must have something that is appealing, but not here in Buffalo, we just poopoo anything remotely good and complain how it's been soooooooo long.........

He does have something people want. He can score and is physical. You are just ranking the physical play higher than others. Tampa wants him because their defense is old, especially on the right side and Risto is available. The issue is that his offense, while good on paper, does not outweigh his inability to consistently play competent defense. 

As to the bolded, some of us have provided evidence as to why Risto should be traded off this team. This is a lazy argument without facts. No research, just a snarky comment that makes you feel better. You probably think the 1975 team could beat the 2019 team too. 

Edited by LGR4GM

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1 hour ago, LGR4GM said:

He does have something people want. He can score and is physical. You are just ranking the physical play higher than others. Tampa wants him because their defense is old, especially on the right side and Risto is available. The issue is that his offense, while good on paper, does not outweigh his inability to consistently play competent defense. 

As to the bolded, some of us have provided evidence as to why Risto should be traded off this team. This is a lazy argument without facts. No research, just a snarky comment that makes you feel better. You probably think the 1975 team could beat the 2019 team too. 

Now that is snarky.  

I have mostly stayed out of this debate, but I think it’s boiled down to two camps.  Risto is youngish, physical, adds offense and size and is still young enough to improve defensively with the right coaching and roster.  The other camp is that he will never be good defensively and therefore it’s time to move on because we can replace his offense with improved Dahlin, Montour and Pilut and we are desperate for better zone play.

I’m not sure which camp Jbot and Housley are in. I have long been in camp no. 1, but have begun to move to camp No. 2 since we acquired Montour.  Ultimately Jbo has two choices with Risto.  1) Get him a legit D first partner who will allow him to freelance, or 2) trade him to someone who wants his skill set (size, physical and offense) and will give us pieces we need to overcome his loss and improve the team. 

Despite the mediocre D of late, our team depth is actually on defense.  Jbot has traded Guhle, Baloo and Fedun, while adding Montour, which leaves us with 9 NHL D (LHD - Dahlin, Scandy. McCabe (IR), Hunwick and Pilut; RHD - Montour, Risto, Bogo and Nelson), 2 good prospects in the AHL (Borgen and JD), and 3 good prospects coming (Samuelsson, Oskari and Bryson).  Jbot can afford to move another D or 2 depending on the return.  

It’s pretty obvious that we need a 2nd line center.  Guys like Duchene and Hayes are going to have unlimited choices this summer therefore it’s unlikely they sign here. Our most likely way to upgraded the 2nd line center is through trade.  To get a JT Miller you may have to trade Risto (although I think to get Risto TB will have to give us more then Miller).  Jbot also has the luxury of not having to force anything regarding Risto. He is under a long-term reasonable deal and he can wait to see how free agency and he draft play out.  He acquired Skinner on August 2.  

Jbot’s off-season strategy will be similar to last off-season.  He’ll likely use our cap cushion to get a bargain from a cap strapped team and his game plan will evolve with player availability.  For example he acquired Sheary ostensibly as Jack LW in June and then acquired Skinner in August as a further upgrade on Sheary.  

I do think Risto will be traded this summer.  Montour’s presence is kind of the writing on wall.  Jbot has 5/6 of the D wants and Scandy and Risto aren’t part of the equation.

Dahlin ?????

McCabe Montour

Pilut Bogo

 

Edited by GASabresIUFAN

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On 3/8/2019 at 10:22 AM, GASabresIUFAN said:

Now that is snarky.  

I have mostly stayed out of this debate, but I think it’s boiled down to two camps.  Risto is youngish, physical, adds offense and size and is still young enough to improve defensively with the right coaching and roster.  The other camp is that he will never be good defensively and therefore it’s time to move on because we can replace his offense with improved Dahlin, Montour and Pilut and we are desperate for better zone play.

I’m not sure which camp Jbot and Housley are in. I have long been in camp no. 1, but have begun to move to camp No. 2 since we acquired Montour.  Ultimately Jbo has two choices with Risto.  1) Get him a legit D first partner who will allow him to freelance, or 2) trade him to someone who wants his skill set (size, physical and offense) and will give us pieces we need to overcome his loss and improve the team. 

Despite the mediocre D of late, our team depth is actually on defense.  Jbot has traded Guhle, Baloo and Fedun, while adding Montour, which leaves us with 9 NHL D (LHD - Dahlin, Scandy. McCabe (IR), Hunwick and Pilut; RHD - Montour, Risto, Bogo and Nelson), 2 good prospects in the AHL (Borgen and JD), and 3 good prospects coming (Samuelsson, Oskari and Bryson).  Jbot can afford to move another D or 2 depending on the return.  

It’s pretty obvious that we need a 2nd line center.  Guys like Duchene and Hayes are going to have unlimited choices this summer therefore it’s unlikely they sign here. Our most likely way to upgraded the 2nd line center is through trade.  To get a JT Miller you may have to trade Risto (although I think to get Risto TB will have to give us more then Miller).  Jbot also has the luxury of not having to force anything regarding Risto. He is under a long-term reasonable deal and he can wait to see how free agency and he draft play out.  He acquired Skinner on August 2.  

Jbot’s off-season strategy will be similar to last off-season.  He’ll likely use our cap cushion to get a bargain from a cap strapped team and his game plan will evolve with player availability.  For example he acquired Sheary ostensibly as Jack LW in June and then acquired Skinner in August as a further upgrade on Sheary.  

I do think Risto will be traded this summer.  Montour’s presence is kind of the writing on wall.  Jbot has 5/6 of the D wants and Scandy and Risto aren’t part of the equation.

Dahlin ?????

McCabe Montour

Pilut Bogo

 

I am being snarky. 

If you need all of that to make Risto better then get rid of him. He is an NHL veteran with over 400 games. He is exactly what he is. He is a defensive liability with scoring upside. Move to camp 2, we have room. Trade Risto as you say to TB for a package including a center and getting a guy like Foote. 

Ryan Dzingel is the backup from Hayes and Duchene IMPO. Can get him for probably 3 years at a cheaper price. Can transition to #3 center when needed. 

As to the lineup:

Dahlin Nelson/Montour

McCabe Montour/Nelson

Pilut/Bogo

Edited by LGR4GM

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On 3/8/2019 at 8:35 AM, LGR4GM said:

He does have something people want. He can score and is physical. You are just ranking the physical play higher than others. Tampa wants him because their defense is old, especially on the right side and Risto is available. The issue is that his offense, while good on paper, does not outweigh his inability to consistently play competent defense. 

As to the bolded, some of us have provided evidence as to why Risto should be traded off this team. This is a lazy argument without facts. No research, just a snarky comment that makes you feel better. You probably think the 1975 team could beat the 2019 team too. 

Bolded.....the evidence provided is concerning enough as to why another team would want to take him off our hands. If Risto "should be" traded off this team, why would a successful team want him?

Under-lined....does this make you feel better?

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21 minutes ago, MakeSabresGrr8Again said:

Bolded.....the evidence provided is concerning enough as to why another team would want to take him off our hands. If Risto "should be" traded off this team, why would a successful team want him?

Under-lined....does this make you feel better?

If team A wants to trade player A then why would team B want player A? To answer that it is simple. Tampa feels they can properly slot him in their lineup and he will be succesful. If we use your logic than no players would ever be traded because the team getting them would never want them.

To the 2nd bolded, does this make you feel better?

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