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Buffalo Bills 2019-2020

WildCard

By WildCard
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TrueBlueGED Hall of Famer

TrueBlueGED

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42 minutes ago, WildCard said:

Are The Bills Actually Good?

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/are-josh-allen-and-the-buffalo-bills-actually-good/

The Bills can actually be good and still not in the same class as this year's Patriots. Which is essentially where I land. I expect us to get smoked, but that's more of a commentary on the Patriots than the Bills. 

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inkman Hall of Famer

inkman

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23 minutes ago, Randall Flagg said:

By what? I don't think most people think we're actually going to win this game. And going into it at 3-0 makes it as un-stressful as possible. 

All that article tells me is that underlying metrics actually favor this bills team more than hot start teams of the past

The Bills aren't good. This week will be the beginning of the end.

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TrueBlueGED Hall of Famer

TrueBlueGED

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Just now, inkman said:

The Bills aren't good. This week will be the beginning of the end.

The Bills don't have to be good in a vacuum, just relative to the rest of the conference. Which, excepting the Patriots and Chiefs, is anywhere from mediocre to bad. The Bills are good by the standard they have to be to make the playoffs. Seriously, the AFC is terrible. 

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TrueBlueGED Hall of Famer

TrueBlueGED

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7 minutes ago, Brawndo said:

Woody left too much wiggle room for the football gods with his timely injury to the guy chucking the pigskin comment. 

He needed to specify the QB who made the deal with the devil as the one who should be hurt.

 

I'm okay with blaming Woody. Now please go back to your actual job: finding us Risto trade rumors to post. 

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Randall Flagg Hall of Famer

Randall Flagg

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21 minutes ago, inkman said:

The Bills aren't good. This week will be the beginning of the end.

That's an incredibly vague statement. It doesn't actually teach me anything about the Bills. 

The Bills have a reasonably strong defense and an offense whose yards per play, yards per game, first downs per game, number of extended TD drives etc. (metrics that have traditionally been terrible for us) anywhere from the top half to the top eighth of the NFL. This is only through three games, so it doesn't confirm we're good. But the fact that it came against teams that haven't won a lot (again, in just THREE games, which were by DEFINITION going to be worse if our stats were good in them) doesn't tell us we're bad. Maybe you're just irritated from spending a lot of time around the blatant optimism of TBD, but over here I don't think anyone is anointing the Bills as champions of anything. 

We're enjoying 3-0. We're enjoying the fact that a lot of the AFC looks worse than we do. We're enjoying how BAD a lot of NFL QBs look this year. And we're taking this one week at a time. 

And simply saying "The Bills aren't good" with nothing more to it is not very convincing or interesting

19 minutes ago, Doohickie said:

I believe that's a larger NFL.com issue.

Yeah it is. Pretty remarkable considering the year and the size/wealth of the NFL

Edited by Randall Flagg
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nfreeman Hall of Famer

nfreeman

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2 hours ago, Taro T said:

The Cheatriots are far more beatable in September than they are later in the year.  They're missing their FB and the WRs are banged up, including Edelman.  If White can shut down Gordon, they've got a shot.

Wouldn't put money on the Bills, and it is a monumental task to win this week, but it is possible.  Charlie's 15% chance seems about right.

And they lost their LT and C for the year.

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sabills Second Liner

sabills

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The way the schedule looks right now the Bills could be pretty mediocre and still get 11 wins.

Games they'll lose:
Pats x2

Games they'll probably lose:
Cowboys
Ravens


50/50 Games:
Browns
Jets
Eagles

Games they should win:
Dolphins x2
Titans
Steelers
Broncos
Redskins

Realistically, nobody on that list after the Cowboys really scares me.

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inkman Hall of Famer

inkman

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1 hour ago, Randall Flagg said:

By what? I don't think most people think we're actually going to win this game. And going into it at 3-0 makes it as un-stressful as possible. 

All that article tells me is that underlying metrics actually favor this bills team more than hot start teams of the past

 

1 hour ago, Randall Flagg said:

That's an incredibly vague statement. It doesn't actually teach me anything about the Bills. 

The Bills have a reasonably strong defense and an offense whose yards per play, yards per game, first downs per game, number of extended TD drives etc. (metrics that have traditionally been terrible for us) anywhere from the top half to the top eighth of the NFL. This is only through three games, so it doesn't confirm we're good. But the fact that it came against teams that haven't won a lot (again, in just THREE games, which were by DEFINITION going to be worse if our stats were good in them) doesn't tell us we're bad. Maybe you're just irritated from spending a lot of time around the blatant optimism of TBD, but over here I don't think anyone is anointing the Bills as champions of anything. 

We're enjoying 3-0. We're enjoying the fact that a lot of the AFC looks worse than we do. We're enjoying how BAD a lot of NFL QBs look this year. And we're taking this one week at a time. 

And simply saying "The Bills aren't good" with nothing more to it is not very convincing or interesting

Yeah it is. Pretty remarkable considering the year and the size/wealth of the NFL

1 hour ago, Randall Flagg said:

By what? I don't think most people think we're actually going to win this game. And going into it at 3-0 makes it as un-stressful as possible. 

All that article tells me is that underlying metrics actually favor this bills team more than hot start teams of the past

I'm just a broken fan floating rudderless in a sea of apathy. I wish I could feel anything. 

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shrader Hall of Famer

shrader

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21 minutes ago, Claude_Verret said:

It's highly unlikely that the Bills win this week, but let's not pretend that the Pats* have been put to the test at all this year either. The Bills, warts and all, will be by far their toughest opponent so far this season.

 

 

I’d be curious to see if any other team has played three winless teams so far like NE has.

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sabills Second Liner

sabills

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7 minutes ago, WildCard said:

For those in the McDermott is a dinosaur crowd

 

I've come around a bit on McDermott;  I DID think he was a dinosaur because thats the soundbites he was projecting. I think he's different than that in reality. Which means he's just pandering which is also annoying, but whatever. Maybe he's doing the Belichick thing.

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WildCard Hall of Famer

WildCard

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3 minutes ago, darksabre said:

I don't know what that chart means

Old man dinosaur wisdom is to run it on 1st down to eventually make a short 3rd down. Or, if you pass it on 1st down, to run it on 2nd down to make it a short 3rd down. However, the stats say you're much, much better off just throwing it. The Bills, in close games, throw it on 1st and 2nd down more than anybody in the league not named the Kansas City Chiefs

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Lanny Third Liner

Lanny

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https://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/analysis/lack-of-evolution-on-first-down-running-backs-including-gurley-should-run-less/

 

Quote

PASS MORE ON FIRST-AND-10

The most obvious and typical time to involve a running back is on first-and-10. But as I mentioned above, it’s become far more efficient to pass on first-and-10 than it once was.

If teams called a more optimal game, they would run the ball more on short yardage and inside the red zone and would pass the ball more in all other situations including on first-and-10. Ultimately, this means fewer rushing attempts in general. (I’ve long discussed how to use running backs more efficiently in the early down passing game, and won’t dig into that in this article)

Looking at success rate, over the last two years, first down passes have been more successful (53%) than first down rushes (45%). Removing two-minute situations and isolating one-score scenarios, passing is 9% more successful and leads to a gain of 3.2 more yards per play on average (7.2 vs 4.0). Yet teams run the ball 54% of the time on these neutral 1st and 10 situations.

 

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