Randall Flagg Posted December 8, 2019 Report Share Posted December 8, 2019 (edited) Allen isn't going to improve on the deep ball this year, which is why I don't think it's smart to call those plays 4 times in the first 7 passes. The reason he went from awful to near best in the league in the intermediate range is a disproportionate amount of reps spanning the last 12 months. The deep pass has been moved to the back burner because of this. They've told us this themselves. This offseason they'll work more on the deep ball. It'll likely never be a strength of his but I'd be pretty surprised if it didn't become serviceable. It's not an accuracy thing, it's purely trajectory It's the story of having a raw QB prospect. Woah. Mahomes sucks! ? Allen is still overwhelmed by teams that can both blitz and cover simultaneously. the previous three games his quarter back rating (not sure which one) against the blitz was well over 100, because those teams weren't the Ravens and Pats. The Texans, Chiefs, can't/won't do this, so our offense probably won't look this bad if we make the playoffs and go on the road. Last year, he would have unraveled in the Cowboys game. This year, he didn't, but he did against Baltimore and NE. And his performance against Baltimore was better than his performance against NE. As long as there's continued growth I'm happy Edited December 8, 2019 by Randall Flagg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randall Flagg Posted December 8, 2019 Report Share Posted December 8, 2019 Also, as long as we get to ten wins, finishing the year against BAL, PIT, NE, and NYJ's defenses is going to be a blessing in disguise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SwampD Posted December 8, 2019 Report Share Posted December 8, 2019 28 minutes ago, TrueBlueGED said: It was a terrible game by Allen. Our receivers aren't great, but they're not any worse than what Baltimore rolls out. Jackson went 16/25 and 3 TDs. And yet, when asked to, their receivers caught the ball (albeit pretty ugily ?) and ours didn’t. They were the difference in this game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randall Flagg Posted December 8, 2019 Report Share Posted December 8, 2019 D is legit 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randall Flagg Posted December 8, 2019 Report Share Posted December 8, 2019 Mahomes sux Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randall Flagg Posted December 8, 2019 Report Share Posted December 8, 2019 Brady sux Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SDS Posted December 8, 2019 Report Share Posted December 8, 2019 1 hour ago, Randall Flagg said: That was a bad decision. You need 2 points either way, but if you kick an EXP, you have one scoring drive needed if you stop them and get the ball back, and should have enough time to keep the playbook relatively open. If you miss the 2, then you need two stops, two drives, and can't call either one the way you'd want to. I’m shocked that you wrote that. It is completely wrong. You have to find out the result of a two point conversion to know what you need to win. You can find that result out with enough time to compensate for a miss or find out with no time left. It was the correct call. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PASabreFan Posted December 8, 2019 Report Share Posted December 8, 2019 16 minutes ago, Randall Flagg said: D is legit Is there reason to believe the defense will still be good next season when, hopefully, Allen is even better and will have a better supporting cast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PASabreFan Posted December 8, 2019 Report Share Posted December 8, 2019 3 minutes ago, SDS said: I’m shocked that you wrote that. It is completely wrong. You have to find out the result of a two point conversion to know what you need to win. You can work her find that result out with enough time to compensate or find out with no time left. It was the correct call. I think there was also something to be said for the idea that it was unpredictable as well as less pressure-packed than needing to do it with 11 seconds left or something. I wonder what the coach's decision would have been had the Bills scored late in the game. Go for the win? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randall Flagg Posted December 8, 2019 Report Share Posted December 8, 2019 (edited) 8 minutes ago, SDS said: I’m shocked that you wrote that. It is completely wrong. You have to find out the result of a two point conversion to know what you need to win. You can find that result out with enough time to compensate for a miss or find out with no time left. It was the correct call. Nope. Option A.) You kick the extra point. You need one Ravens stop and one scoring drive, and have 5 minutes and therefore a full playbook to do it. At the end, you'll need to make one two point conversion. Option B.) You go for two. Just like before, you need to make one total two point conversion,and then get one stop and have one more TD drive - that doesn't change. what does change is, if you don't, the game is over right there, because you need TWO stops, and TWO scoring drives, and will only have the ball for about 3-3.5 minutes total, closing up the playbook. The benefit of "knowing" an impossibility (two scoring drives on the ravens after stopping Lamar twice and having less than 5 minutes to do it) is completely meaningless. The Bills, had they kicked the extra point, would have had the same situation at the end of the game (that they didn't take advantage of). Had they missed the two points, they showed that with 5 minutes and a full playbook they couldn't even get to the end zone once before there was no time left, much less doing it AGAIN after another stop (far from guaranteed). Edited December 8, 2019 by Randall Flagg 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randall Flagg Posted December 8, 2019 Report Share Posted December 8, 2019 (edited) 6 minutes ago, PASabreFan said: Is there reason to believe the defense will still be good next season when, hopefully, Allen is even better and will have a better supporting cast? Yes. No guarantee it stays AS good, but reason to believe it will still be good. Edited December 8, 2019 by Randall Flagg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nfreeman Posted December 8, 2019 Report Share Posted December 8, 2019 52 minutes ago, TrueBlueGED said: It was a terrible game by Allen. Our receivers aren't great, but they're not any worse than what Baltimore rolls out. Jackson went 16/25 and 3 TDs. I'm not sure I'm at "terrible", but it was pretty disappointing IMHO. In Allen's defense, the Bills' O-line could not handle Baltimore's pass rush, and Beasley and Knox each dropped a well-thrown pass that would've converted a big 3rd down. 7 minutes ago, PASabreFan said: Is there reason to believe the defense will still be good next season when, hopefully, Allen is even better and will have a better supporting cast? I think they will have a good D as long as McD is here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SDS Posted December 8, 2019 Report Share Posted December 8, 2019 1 minute ago, Randall Flagg said: Nope. Option A.) You kick the extra point. You need one Ravens stop and one scoring drive, and have 5 minutes and therefore a full playbook to do it. At the end, you'll need to make one two point conversion. Option B.) You go for two. Just like before, you need to make one total two point conversion - that doesn't change. what does change is, if you don't, the game is over right there, because you need TWO stops, and TWO scoring drives, and will only have the ball for about 3-3.5 minutes total, closing up the playbook. The benefit of "knowing" an impossibility (two scoring drives on the ravens after stopping Lamar twice and having less than 5 minutes to do it) is completely meaningless. The Bills, had they kicked the extra point, would have had the same situation at the end of the game (that they didn't take advantage of). Had they missed the two points, they showed that with 5 minutes and a full playbook they couldn't even get to the end zone once before there was no time left, much less doing it AGAIN after another stop (far from guaranteed). 1000x no. Fact: The Bills needed another touchdown. Fact: The Bills needed a 2-point conversion to tie (sticking to the two score scenario). So, to make the two options equivalent - you have to agree that a second TD is going to be scored and the 2-pt conversion is going to be missed. So, which would you rather have? Time on the clock knowing you need a FG or no time on the clock knowing you need a FG? You can't assign failure to my scenario and success to yours and say yours is better. Make them equal. When you do, it is inarguable that more time on the clock is better than less time on the clock. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randall Flagg Posted December 8, 2019 Report Share Posted December 8, 2019 (edited) 4 minutes ago, SDS said: 1000x no. Fact: The Bills needed another touchdown. Fact: The Bills needed a 2-point conversion to tie (sticking to the two score scenario). So, to make the two options equivalent - you have to agree that a second TD is going to be scored and the 2-pt conversion is going to be missed. So, which would you rather have? Time on the clock knowing you need a FG or no time on the clock knowing you need a FG? You can't assign failure to my scenario and success to yours and say yours is better. Make them equal. When you do, it is inarguable that more time on the clock is better than less time on the clock. The best case scenario for the two point conversion (a 60% play) means that we need a TD drive with 5 minutes left. It's identical to the 95% likelihood that we make an extra point. The worst case scenario is getting the ball back with 5 minutes left, like we did, needing two scoring drives, which was absolutely not going to happen. This had a 40% likelihood, as opposed to the 5% likelihood of a missed extra point. I'd believe you if there were 10 minutes left in the game, but our full playbook was miserable today, and cutting it to the clock management offensive plays would have been even worse. There wasn't time for two drives. There is no chance I will be convinced that this was the right choice in this game I'd rather have a 2 point conversion needed with a few seconds left than a 40% chance of game over the second the play is finished with 6 minutes left and the ravens getting the ball. And it's not even close. Edited December 8, 2019 by Randall Flagg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wyldnwoody44 Posted December 8, 2019 Report Share Posted December 8, 2019 Meh, we lost, only by 7 and had a chance at the end, but the O line was Swiss cheese and Allen was rocked all day long. And when he wasn't, he spent wayyyy to long standing there and making dumb decisions. An adequate offense and the bills are 12-1 or 11-2, I would like Daboll to be replaced this off season and have a legit receiver brought in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SDS Posted December 8, 2019 Report Share Posted December 8, 2019 5 minutes ago, Randall Flagg said: The best case scenario for the two point conversion (a 60% play) means that we need a TD drive with 5 minutes left. It's identical to the 95% likelihood that we make an extra point. The worst case scenario is getting the ball back with 5 minutes left, like we did, needing two scoring drives, which was absolutely not going to happen. This had a 40% likelihood, as opposed to the 5% likelihood of a missed extra point. I'd believe you if there were 10 minutes left in the game, but our full playbook was miserable today, and cutting it to the clock management offensive plays would have been even worse. There wasn't time for two drives. Again. If you are arguing this in good faith, then the two point conversion fails for me and it fails for you. Otherwise it is a horseshit argument. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eleven Posted December 8, 2019 Report Share Posted December 8, 2019 1 hour ago, Neo said: I am finished with Knox. He's so frustrating. He's like Afinogenov. A brilliant play here and there; a major ***** up here and there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pi2000 Posted December 8, 2019 Report Share Posted December 8, 2019 Just now, Eleven said: He's so frustrating. He's like Afinogenov. A brilliant play here and there; a major ***** up here and there. typical rookie, nbd 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scottysabres Posted December 8, 2019 Report Share Posted December 8, 2019 This loss was not Josh Allen's fault. The lack of successful run game falls squarely on the offensive coordinators shoulders. We should have won this game, point blank, end of conversation imho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randall Flagg Posted December 8, 2019 Report Share Posted December 8, 2019 5 minutes ago, SDS said: Again. If you are arguing this in good faith, then the two point conversion fails for me and it fails for you. Otherwise it is a horseshit argument. The way I'm looking at it is this: The probability of the Bills missing the two point conversion (I'm not asserting it will happen here, I'm referring to the 40% chance that this happens at the time of making the decision) and still being capable of tying the game with two scoring drives in five minutes left, given our offensive performance in the game and the Ravens' ability to grind clock, is in my imagination, SUBSTANTIALLY lower than their probability of needing one drive to score the potential game tying touchdown, multiplied by the 60% chance of making a 2 pointer at the end. The risk is far larger in the first case, as it's 40% game over instantly, versus living to fight on and postponing that same value of failed 2 point conversion to the end of ONE scoring drive rather than messing around with two drives with an offense that hasn't moved all day, shows terrible clock management (see the Cleveland game), with a team that can grind the clock down better than perhaps anyone else in the league on the other side of the LOS. 6 minutes ago, pi2000 said: typical rookie, nbd Definitely feels true that rookie TEs tend to look worse than rookies at some other positions in the NFL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SDS Posted December 8, 2019 Report Share Posted December 8, 2019 7 minutes ago, Randall Flagg said: The way I'm looking at it is this: The probability of the Bills missing the two point conversion (I'm not asserting it will happen here, I'm referring to the 40% chance that this happens at the time of making the decision) and still being capable of tying the game with two scoring drives in five minutes left, given our offensive performance in the game and the Ravens' ability to grind clock, is in my imagination, SUBSTANTIALLY lower than their probability of needing one drive to score the potential game tying touchdown, multiplied by the 60% chance of making a 2 pointer at the end. The risk is far larger in the first case, as it's 40% game over instantly, versus living to fight on and postponing that same value of failed 2 point conversion to the end of ONE scoring drive rather than messing around with two drives with an offense that hasn't moved all day, shows terrible clock management (see the Cleveland game), with a team that can grind the clock down better than perhaps anyone else in the league on the other side of the LOS. The error in this logic is, as I have unsuccessfully tried to point out, is that you insist on focusing on what happens if they fail in my scenario, but you haven't mentioned a single word about what happens if they fail in your scenario. Until you address failure in option two you are dealing from the bottom of the deck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randall Flagg Posted December 8, 2019 Report Share Posted December 8, 2019 If the 2 point conversion is a necessary coin flip, I'd just rather flip the coin on the last play of the game. Just now, SDS said: The error in this logic is, as I have unsuccessfully tried to point out, is that you insist on focusing on what happens if they fail in my scenario, but you haven't mentioned a single word about what happens if they fail in your scenario. Until you address failure in option two you are dealing from the bottom of the deck. Just now, Randall Flagg said: If the 2 point conversion is a necessary coin flip, I'd just rather flip the coin on the last play of the game. The upside of the two point success with 7 minutes left wasn't worth its downside. Because it didn't materially change the gameplan from an extra point kick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randall Flagg Posted December 8, 2019 Report Share Posted December 8, 2019 If it was changing the type of score or number of scoring drives needed, then it would have been worth it. It didn't. The drives themselves, and situations they're in, are more relevant to me than the coin flip at the end if they're successful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JujuFish Posted December 8, 2019 Report Share Posted December 8, 2019 26 minutes ago, Eleven said: He's so frustrating. He's like Afinogenov. A brilliant play here and there; a major ***** up here and there. Hah, I love this comparison. So true. Hopefully he grows out of the bad plays. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SDS Posted December 8, 2019 Report Share Posted December 8, 2019 14 minutes ago, Randall Flagg said: The upside of the two point success with 7 minutes left wasn't worth its downside. Because it didn't materially change the gameplan from an extra point kick. At some point, it would be nice if you talk about the downside in your scenario. I've asked several times. You say this because you continually assign failure to one scenario, but not the other. Do you know what the downside of missing the 2-point conversation on the second TD? I mean, you literally won't discuss it. Substantially less time to make a FG, if any time at all. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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