NHL Rookie of the Year Race - Team Sweden

[GASabresIUFAN]

The ROY race is down to two players.

2017 5th overall, 20 year old, Elias Pettersson - 38 gp 22g 20a +13, 13PPP and a crazy 27.8 shooting %, 41.9 faceoffs %, 18:02 TOI

2018 1st overall, 18 year old, Rasmus Dahlin - 47gp 5g 21a +6, 9PPP, 20:37 TOI

Rasmus won’t turn 19 until April 13th.

To me the ROY is obvious - Dahlin, although I think Pettersson is the favorite right now.  

Ekblad was the ROY in 2015 w 39 points as an 18 year old, but he hasn’t topped that season since. Before Ekblad, Myers, also at 18, won the award with 48 pts in 2010 and also hasn’t topped that make since.

Hedman didn’t score more than 26 pts until he was 24.  Karlsson scored 26 as a 19 year old rookie, and scored 45 (w a -30) as a 20 year old. 

We have seen tons of great rookie forwards put up similar and often better numbers the n Pettersson, but rarely have we seen anyone do at 18 what Dahlin is doing.  

 Pettersson is currently 31th in the NHL in p/gp by forwards. 23rd in goals and 47th in pts among all forwards.  He is 1st in rookie scoring and goals, but 2nd in assists to Dahlin.

Dahlin as an 18 year old is 23rd in pts by D and tied for 19th in assists.  This at 18.  He is 29th in p/gp.  Among Rookies he is 1st in assists, 2nd in points and 2nd in TOI.  

Based on these stats you could argue that both guys are among the top 20-30 players at their position in the NHL as rookies, but given the younger age and harder position, I’d give the nod to Dahlin.

Thoughts?

Edited January 17, 2019 by GASabresIUFAN

[Beer]

I love Dahlin but you cannot deny what Pettersson is doing in Vancouver.  Tomorrow will be a fun one to watch.  Of course, my thoughts could change if Dahlin finishes the year tearing it up.  Glad he’s on our team.

[French Collection]

Dahlin is a year younger and playing a more challenging position so I see this evening the score.

He will need to do a bit more as the majority of the press in Canada is gaga over Pettersson. The only negative I hear about Pettersson in this country is that he may miss too many games if he suffers another injury.

By the way Myers turned 20 midway through his ROY season.

Edited January 17, 2019 by French Collection

[Thorny]

4 minutes ago, French Collection said:

Dahlin is a year younger and playing a more challenging position so I see this evening the score.

He will need to do a bit more as the majority of the press in Canada is gaga over Pettersson. The only negative I hear about Pettersson in this country is that he may miss too many games if he suffers another injury.

Working in Dahlin's favor here, thankfully is that he was a 1st overall pick. That carries a certain level of buzz to it. 

It's a clear two horse race. Dahlin is all but guaranteed a nomination and at least 2nd place in voting. It's so hard to say which of Dahlin or Pettersson is more deserving, because Dahlin's degree of difficulty is higher. Playing at a younger age, and a tougher position. It usually goes to the guy with the most points, so Pettersson likely wins it, and maybe he should. 

It's tough to remove bias from the equation but I see it as about a toss-up. 

Edited January 17, 2019 by Thorny

[msw2112]

I want Dahlin to win and think that because he plays a more difficult position and one that inherently has lower offensive numbers, that he has a shot.  The fact that he is only 18 is irrelevant.  The award goes to the top performing rookie, not the best rookie for their age.  My sense is that Pettersson will probably win due to his better offensive numbers anyway.  It's kind of like the Heisman trophy - it usually goes to the best QB or the offensive player with the best statistics and not to the BEST PLAYER.  Charles Woodson over Peyton Manning is the one exception that comes to mind, but otherwise, it is QB/offense all the time.

[Beer]

I’d like to add to my post above...

I think tomorrow could impact the Calder race quite a bit.  You know people are going to be watching this one for that reason alone.  If PH has a hairy pair, he’ll put Dahlin out there against Pettersson all night long and let the rookies settle the debate.  If Dahlin keeps him off the scoresheet and gets a point or two I think he could become the front runner.  The opposite is completely realistic as well.

Go Sabres!

[Thorny]

2 minutes ago, Beer said:

I’d like to add to my post above...

I think tomorrow could impact the Calder race quite a bit.  You know people are going to be watching this one for that reason alone.  If PH has a hairy pair, he’ll put Dahlin out there against Pettersson all night long and let the rookies settle the debate.  If Dahlin keeps him off the scoresheet and gets a point or two I think he could become the front runner.  The opposite is completely realistic as well.

Go Sabres!

Pettey ain't playin'

[North Buffalo]

And Horvat iffy...

[Beer]

Bummer

[LGR4GM]

Pettersson should be ROY if things continue the way they are. 

[bunomatic]

Out west its all Elias. People out of their minds on talk radio with some of the pundits even mentioning him in the same sentence as the great one. Gasp.

He's fun to watch but I don't buy it. He'll prolly win it but I go with the younger guy playing the tougher position and of course I'm biased so its Rasmus.

[LTS]

10 hours ago, bunomatic said:

Out west its all Elias. People out of their minds on talk radio with some of the pundits even mentioning him in the same sentence as the great one. Gasp.

He's fun to watch but I don't buy it. He'll prolly win it but I go with the younger guy playing the tougher position and of course I'm biased so its Rasmus.

Didn't Gretzky say something about how he sees a little of himself in Petterson?  I think that would fuel that fire.

If Dahlin has a strong second half he'll get serious consideration.  He's going to be at the mercy of his team however.  He might get a few more goals, but he'll need to ratchet up the apples and that means someone on the team scoring.

[GASabresIUFAN]

So Lidstrom Jr vs Gretzky lite?

[MakeSabresGrr8Again]

14 hours ago, Beer said:

I’d like to add to my post above...

I think tomorrow could impact the Calder race quite a bit.  You know people are going to be watching this one for that reason alone.  If PH has a hairy pair, he’ll put Dahlin out there against Pettersson all night long and let the rookies settle the debate.  If Dahlin keeps him off the scoresheet and gets a point or two I think he could become the front runner.  The opposite is completely realistic as well.

Go Sabres!

I don't think Pettersson is going to play, not positive though.

[Mustache of God]

Dahlin will need to break 50 points to have a shot...but at the end of the day goals are sexy and sex sells, so Peterson will take home the hardware. 

[Andrew Amerk]

Who ultimately votes on this?

[LGR4GM]

1 minute ago, Andrew Amerk said:

Who ultimately votes on this?

NHl writer's association I believe. 

[Andrew Amerk]

9 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

NHl writer's association I believe. 

Do you think they factor in “future marketability” of a player at all?

[dudacek]

If Pettersen hits 70 points or Dahlin fails to hit 40, EP wins.

Dahlin needs to finish within 15 points and have a few wow factor performances down the stretch to pull it off.

The award is not for the rookie with the most potential, or for rookie who played the best relative to his age, it is for the rookie with the best season.

So far that is Pettersen.

 

[LGR4GM]

1 hour ago, Andrew Amerk said:

Do you think they factor in “future marketability” of a player at all?

No. I think they look at points more than anything and games played. Pettersson is going to have probably around 65 or 70 points and play over 70 games so he's gonna win. 

I think for Dahlin to be in the conversation, he is going to have to keep putting up points. He needs to hit 50 I think to make it close. 

[Weave]

Looking eerily similar to 82-83 when Steve Larmer beat Phil Housley for the Calder.

[GASabresIUFAN]

But who is actually having a better season?  I admit it’s a close call,  but think Dahlin has meant more to us so far.

[dudacek]

Just now, GASabresIUFAN said:

But who is actually having a better season?  I admit it’s a close call,  but think Dahlin has meant more to us so far.

There isn’t a person out here who wouldn’t agree that EP is the Canucks best player and MVP

Him out for them is the same as Jack being out for us in terms of value to the team.

 

[Thorny]

36 minutes ago, dudacek said:

There isn’t a person out here who wouldn’t agree that EP is the Canucks best player and MVP

Him out for them is the same as Jack being out for us in terms of value to the team.

 

No, I don't think Pettersson deserves to finish as high as Jack in Hart voting. He has great stats but a rookie EP is not having the affect on a 200 foot game for his team that Jack Eichel does right now. 

Edited January 18, 2019 by Thorny

[Kruppstahl]

This was discussed last night during the Sabres/Vancouver telecast on the Vancouver feed, which anyone watching Center Ice had to watch.

They all concluded it is absolutely still Pettersson's to lose....

But they also pointed out that our boy is on pace to have the most points, in a rookie season, by any defenseman in the NHL in like 20 years. And he's 18 years old.

I have said it time and again; he's going to be more important to this franchise than Eichel.