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GDT: Tampa Bay Lightning at Buffalo Sabres. 12 January 2019 @ 7:00PM EST on MSG.

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1 minute ago, ... said:

Statistics are "a thing" for a reason.  They're at work in pretty much all facets of modern life.  Hockey is no different.  The objective, when your stats are not where you want them to be, is to consistently deviate from the mean on the positive side, which then redefines the mean.  

I think his stance is more on the side of they don't really "prove" anything and you know as well as the rest of us that there are always "outliers" that can be found. You can find that math will prove 7+6=13 without doubt, but you can't prove carrying the puck into zone on a rush will guarantee you will score. It might show the odds are better but will not prove 100% you will score.

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9 minutes ago, MakeSabresGrr8Again said:

I think his stance is more on the side of they don't really "prove" anything and you know as well as the rest of us that there are always "outliers" that can be found. You can find that math will prove 7+6=13 without doubt, but you can't prove carrying the puck into zone on a rush will guarantee you will score. It might show the odds are better but will not prove 100% you will score.

I know what his point is.

Stats are a tool, that's it.  Just like a ruler for woodworkers.  You can measure at 10 3/32" for your cut, but that doesn't mean your final cut will measure exactly 10 3/32".  For curves or spheres, a lot of times you eyeball the final arcs.  

Artists set up perspective lines and grids to pencil in the scene before applying paint. Doesn't mean that they have to stay on those lines, or that staying on those lines looks correct in the end.

If the Sabres organization set goals, other than "winning", they're metric based.  The stats team is there to advise, whether anyone likes what they say or not.

 

 

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@NHLPlayerSafety: Tampa Bay's Mikhail Sergachev has been fined $2,403.67, the maximum allowable under the CBA, for cross-checking Buffalo's Johan Larsson.

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1 hour ago, ... said:

I know what his point is.

Stats are a tool, that's it.  Just like a ruler for woodworkers.  You can measure at 10 3/32" for your cut, but that doesn't mean your final cut will measure exactly 10 3/32".  For curves or spheres, a lot of times you eyeball the final arcs.  

Artists set up perspective lines and grids to pencil in the scene before applying paint. Doesn't mean that they have to stay on those lines, or that staying on those lines looks correct in the end.

If the Sabres organization set goals, other than "winning", they're metric based.  The stats team is there to advise, whether anyone likes what they say or not.

 

 

I just thought it seemed you weren't accepting that train of thought and taking the "math" as undeniable truth. 

Sorry if iI misconstrued that or stepped on anyone's toes.

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2 hours ago, PASabreFan said:

Don't check out the "random" bursts of light in space thread. The end is truly nigh! Except... I posted before you did that the correct call wasn't elbowing. And you seem to be saying you didn't think there was a penalty at all. I see Eichel's triceps making the Bolt's head the principal point of contact.

Do you at all worry about the idea of self-fulfilling prophecies? Nothing in sports is set in stone like what you're describing. It's not math. If I'm Phil and some dweeb comes to me and says, "Hey, coach, you're about to start sucking. See this spreadsheet?" I punch him in that prominent Adam's Apple.

PA it’s another source of information for coaches to make decisions about in game match ups and which players might work best together on a line. During the streak the Sabres were getting lucky by winning one goal games and outstanding goaltending both which they have not gotten in their next 20 starts. 

Stats and Advanced Analytics are not the end all be all, but they can explain trends and have predictive tendencies such as explaining how a team that went on a 10-0 Streak followed it up by going 6-14-2 in the next twenty. 

Babcock and Quenneville are two coaches who are known to use analytics in game planning, granted both teams have in Babcock more on ice talent and Q had more talent,  maximizing what they have. 

Also if Housley wants to dismiss analytics or throat punch Jason Nightengale(The Sabres Analytic Director) he will end up sitting with the fans who used to yell “Hit him with your purse Phil!” 

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not only no elbow, but also no head contact at all   None.   Not any.  

This clown skating backwards behind his net is more culpable for his own safety than  anyone else.  

Note the official on the goal line.  The call was made by a ref in the neutral zone.   

McDonaugh is more wrong than Eichel   The call was wrong, but I do not expect the call to be correct in real time with the academy award performance that was on display.  

 

The game turned on this play. 

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3 hours ago, PASabreFan said:

Don't check out the "random" bursts of light in space thread. The end is truly nigh! Except... I posted before you did that the correct call wasn't elbowing. And you seem to be saying you didn't think there was a penalty at all. I see Eichel's triceps making the Bolt's head the principal point of contact.

Do you at all worry about the idea of self-fulfilling prophecies? Nothing in sports is set in stone like what you're describing. It's not math. If I'm Phil and some dweeb comes to me and says, "Hey, coach, you're about to start sucking. See this spreadsheet?" I punch him in that prominent Adam's Apple.

Nope.  Checkout Pimlach's post showing McDonaugh's acting routine.  If anything, the Sabres should have gotten a 5 on 3 for the dive.

Though it is good to know the world is still safe.

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I could surely be wrong but what I saw last night and what I see in the replay is embellishment.

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1 hour ago, Brawndo said:

PA it’s another source of information for coaches to make decisions about in game match ups and which players might work best together on a line. During the streak the Sabres were getting lucky by winning one goal games and outstanding goaltending both which they have not gotten in their next 20 starts. 

Stats and Advanced Analytics are not the end all be all, but they can explain trends and have predictive tendencies such as explaining how a team that went on a 10-0 Streak followed it up by going 6-14-2 in the next twenty. 

Babcock and Quenneville are two coaches who are known to use analytics in game planning, granted both teams have in Babcock more on ice talent and Q had more talent,  maximizing what they have. 

Also if Housley wants to dismiss analytics or throat punch Jason Nightengale(The Sabres Analytic Director) he will end up sitting with the fans who used to yell “Hit him with your purse Phil!” 

Have they been unlucky to lose 11 one-goal games?

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1 hour ago, Taro T said:

Nope.  Checkout Pimlach's post showing McDonaugh's acting routine.  If anything, the Sabres should have gotten a 5 on 3 for the dive.

Though it is good to know the world is still safe.

I can't play the video. I imagine it's the same angle from the Sabres' broadcast. I don't put any weight on the photo as evidence.

Hey, if Eichel hit him in the back and McDonagh was able to snap his head and contort his body like that, he deserves the call. Just one more talent the Lightning possess that we don't.

That said, still not sold.

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51 minutes ago, PASabreFan said:

I can't play the video. I imagine it's the same angle from the Sabres' broadcast. I don't put any weight on the photo as evidence.

Hey, if Eichel hit him in the back and McDonagh was able to snap his head and contort his body like that, he deserves the call. Just one more talent the Lightning possess that we don't.

That said, still not sold.

The video is from ice level.  McDonaugh's 1 heck of an actor.

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1 hour ago, PASabreFan said:

Have they been unlucky to lose 11 one-goal games?

After winning seven out of ten during the streak by one goal, yes they have been. The opposition is getting goals they weren’t before as the Sabres are not getting the goaltending they did before. 

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It was not a cheap shot by Eichel, but McDonaugh and other Tampa players came after Jack like it was.  Now compare that to the reaction of the Sabres players after Sergachev hit Larsson with a clear cheap shot to the face.  Anybody from the Sabres go after Sergachev?????  Zip, Nada, Squat as usual. 

The Sabres may act like a more unified team less some of the castoffs from last year, but they don't act like it when one of their own gets clearly abused by the other team....pathetic (but nothing new with Buffalo)!

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2 hours ago, PASabreFan said:

I can't play the video. I imagine it's the same angle from the Sabres' broadcast. I don't put any weight on the photo as evidence.

Hey, if Eichel hit him in the back and McDonagh was able to snap his head and contort his body like that, he deserves the call. Just one more talent the Lightning possess that we don't.

That said, still not sold.

Well I hope your not a lawyer or a judge.  LOL.  The photo is everything. How can the photo be no evidence.  It’s Stopped at the time of contact.  McDiver is skating backwards, head down.  No elbow contact.  More important no contact to head.  The contact is on his shoulder and name plate.  You can see Eichel trying to avoid him, he lifts his stick to avoid tripping him.  McDiver was reckless and caused the entire situation.  Then He fails to the ice and fakes the entire incident.  

He is a 6’1” 216 pound softie that plays dumb hockey and protects himself by cross checking people after the whistle.  Rarely drops them, and when he does you can bet the opponent is smaller. 

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54 minutes ago, Carmel Corn said:

It was not a cheap shot by Eichel, but McDonaugh and other Tampa players came after Jack like it was.  Now compare that to the reaction of the Sabres players after Sergachev hit Larsson with a clear cheap shot to the face.  Anybody from the Sabres go after Sergachev?????  Zip, Nada, Squat as usual. 

The Sabres may act like a more unified team less some of the castoffs from last year, but they don't act like it when one of their own gets clearly abused by the other team....pathetic (but nothing new with Buffalo)!

Not really an excuse but, between Larsson cross-checking  him 1st and with the game on the line at the time, it may be they didn't want to take any additional penalties.

Tampa got an extra 2min.

McDonaugh didn't do anything to Eichel and whether or not it was a cheap shot (it may have looked like it) it was a different situation. I would expect the Sabres to react the same in the same situation.

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23 minutes ago, Pimlach said:

Well I hope your not a lawyer or a judge.  LOL.  The photo is everything. How can the photo be no evidence.  It’s Stopped at the time of contact.  McDiver is skating backwards, head down.  No elbow contact.  More important no contact to head.  The contact is on his shoulder and name plate.  You can see Eichel trying to avoid him, he lifts his stick to avoid tripping him.  McDiver was reckless and caused the entire situation.  Then He fails to the ice and fakes the entire incident.  

He is a 6’1” 216 pound softie that plays dumb hockey and protects himself by cross checking people after the whistle.  Rarely drops them, and when he does you can bet the opponent is smaller. 

Without seeing the video, which I think is the same ice level video they showed on MSG, my position is that the photo frame is after the initial contact. In other words, somewhat misleading. I'm not 100% on this, and I'm starting to care less and less as time goes on. (I think it's the same angle shown on MSG because I kind of doubt Tampa had their own camera operator in the corner; they'd use the angles made available by the home team.)

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1 hour ago, Brawndo said:

After winning seven out of ten during the streak by one goal, yes they have been. The opposition is getting goals they weren’t before as the Sabres are not getting the goaltending they did before. 

Why is this the first time I've heard about the Sabres being unlucky in defeat? A narrative perhaps? (The Sabres aren't a playoff team this year; you just wait until next year.)

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29 minutes ago, PASabreFan said:

Why is this the first time I've heard about the Sabres being unlucky in defeat? A narrative perhaps? (The Sabres aren't a playoff team this year; you just wait until next year.)

Did you watch some of the goals the Canes scored on Friday Night? Those can be termed unlucky. 

 

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1 hour ago, Pimlach said:

Well I hope your not a lawyer or a judge.  LOL.  The photo is everything. How can the photo be no evidence.  It’s Stopped at the time of contact.  McDiver is skating backwards, head down.  No elbow contact.  More important no contact to head.  The contact is on his shoulder and name plate.  You can see Eichel trying to avoid him, he lifts his stick to avoid tripping him.  McDiver was reckless and caused the entire situation.  Then He fails to the ice and fakes the entire incident.  

He is a 6’1” 216 pound softie that plays dumb hockey and protects himself by cross checking people after the whistle.  Rarely drops them, and when he does you can bet the opponent is smaller. 

That photo isn't at contact.  It is after contact.

 

My take is that Jack hit him high and his arm at least made sliding contact with the head.  It looked more incidental than intentional to me.  And I don't think the reaction was faked.

 

Has he had concussion issues in the past?  I seem to remember that he has.  That would explain the reaction and the team reaction.

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49 minutes ago, Weave said:

That photo isn't at contact.  It is after contact.

 

My take is that Jack hit him high and his arm at least made sliding contact with the head.  It looked more incidental than intentional to me.  And I don't think the reaction was faked.

 

Has he had concussion issues in the past?  I seem to remember that he has.  That would explain the reaction and the team reaction.

Nope.  Look at where Jack is.  It is “at contact” because Jack is slightly behind him, he sped right through him.  It absolutely CANNOT be after contact when the picture shows the hit on the nameplate and shoulder.  They were going fast and in opposite directions   This is not that hard to see.  

Jack did not “hit him high”, watch the video.  The guy is skating backwards and his body and head are low. 

It was obviously incidental, i agree with that  

The reaction? Only McDonagh knows if he faked it but he got up and challenged Jack once he got the call he was looking to get.  To me it looks like acting.

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8 minutes ago, Pimlach said:

Nope.  Look at where Jack is.  It is “at contact” because Jack is slightly behind him, he sped right through him.  It absolutely CANNOT be after contact when the picture shows the hit on the nameplate and shoulder.  They were going fast and in opposite directions   This is not that hard to see.  

Jack did not “hit him high”, watch the video.  The guy is skating backwards and his body and head are low. 

It was obviously incidental, i agree with that  

The reaction? Only McDonagh knows if he faked it but he got up and challenged Jack once he got the call he was looking to get.  To me it looks like acting.

We aren't going to agree on where that photo was relative to time of contact.  I think it was post-initial contact. With that angle you can't really see where first contact occurred.  The hit was about even with his shoulder blades from what I can deduce..  High is a relative term.  Not head high, obviously, but high.  You mention nameplate.  I actually think initial contact was a bit lower, like mid shoulders.  But as you said, his body and head are low.  The only place Jack could have contacted him was high.  And the contact slid up his body.  I'd call it a glancing blow to his head.

It's a tough penalty to see called as it does appear to be incidental.  Although to be honest, I'd like to see zero tolerance here.

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I won't lie, I am getting discouraged with the Sabres in the aspect of "toughness" the handle situation, the 2nd yandle/ekblad issue, the crosscheck to Larry's face, etc etc, several small things throughout the season, it points to shades of lucix Miller (nowhere near the same thing) but in the same vein, we have what, Bogo and risto and that's it and neither of them do much, it's almost as if we wilt when the going gets tough, I don't need to see them being reckless out there, but damn, would it hurt to see a little more heart, our PP sucks anyways, who cares if we foregobut to make a statement, that's honestly the most troublesome thing (besides our lack of secondary scoring) to me at least. 

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5 hours ago, Wyldnwoody44 said:

I won't lie, I am getting discouraged with the Sabres in the aspect of "toughness" the handle situation, the 2nd yandle/ekblad issue, the crosscheck to Larry's face, etc etc, several small things throughout the season, it points to shades of lucix Miller (nowhere near the same thing) but in the same vein, we have what, Bogo and risto and that's it and neither of them do much, it's almost as if we wilt when the going gets tough, I don't need to see them being reckless out there, but damn, would it hurt to see a little more heart, our PP sucks anyways, who cares if we foregobut to make a statement, that's honestly the most troublesome thing (besides our lack of secondary scoring) to me at least. 

Risto plays hard between whistles which is great. After the whistle when it gets a little gritty he gives a couple body jabs but the kid doesn’t seem the fighting type.

Bogo will drop em but it’s not his primary job. Larry is the same. The enforcer or designated tough guy is going away. I do agree some of them need to learn to stand up for themselves/others. I don’t expect Skinner to fight Yandle but I’m all for an for an eye in hockey. 

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11 hours ago, Weave said:

That photo isn't at contact.  It is after contact.

 

My take is that Jack hit him high and his arm at least made sliding contact with the head.  It looked more incidental than intentional to me.  And I don't think the reaction was faked.

 

Has he had concussion issues in the past?  I seem to remember that he has.  That would explain the reaction and the team reaction.

Another thing in the video is that Jack looks around for the ref.  He knew he did something bad and was looking to see if he got away with it, IMO.

I really think the penalty was called correctly.

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