Skinner Contract Watch

[Broken Ankles]

He’s lost all his leverage.   Skinner holds all the cards.   His agent knows JB can not afford to lose him.  He has seen what Stone was extended for in Vegas.  I think it’s $9.1m/8 years or he tests.  

[Taro T]

9 minutes ago, Broken Ankles said:

He’s lost all his leverage.   Skinner holds all the cards.   His agent knows JB can not afford to lose him.  He has seen what Stone was extended for in Vegas.  I think it’s $9.1m/8 years or he tests.  

Well, he can test during the non-tampering pre-July 1 negotiation period, but he can't get 8 years from anyone but Buffalo.  Because on July 1, that is no longer an option for even Buffalo.

Would be surprised if he goes that far, but even if he did, would expect him to follow Stamkos ' footsteps & realize the grass isn't greener elsewhere.

[Broken Ankles]

Just now, Taro T said:

Well, he can test during the non-tampering pre-July 1 negotiation period, but he can't get 8 years from anyone but Buffalo.  Because on July 1, that is no longer an option for even Buffalo.

Would be surprised if he goes that far, but even if he did, would expect him to follow Stamkos ' footsteps & realize the grass isn't greener elsewhere.

Agreed.  I think the fact he wasn’t traded means he has an intent to stay.  Just think his agent now has “more hand” so to speak.  In terms of AAV.  As noted in multiple posts, JBs signings have been both hit and miss.   He can not afford to lose this, giving advantage to Skinner.

[LGR4GM]

10 hours ago, Broken Ankles said:

He’s lost all his leverage.   Skinner holds all the cards.   His agent knows JB can not afford to lose him.  He has seen what Stone was extended for in Vegas.  I think it’s $9.1m/8 years or he tests.  

Stone is better than Skinner. I think you have to have that hit below 9mil and build in lockout protection. That's the key. If you can do 8.5mil for 8 years that is front loaded to some degree, that will help. 

[steveoath]

17 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

Stone is better than Skinner. I think you have to have that hit below 9mil and build in lockout protection. That's the key. If you can do 8.5mil for 8 years that is front loaded to some degree, that will help. 

Are contracts allowed to be front loaded? I thought CBA took that away.

[Sabel79]

31 minutes ago, steveoath said:

Are contracts allowed to be front loaded? I thought CBA took that away.

You can’t do the old Marion Hossa salary nosedive anymore, but the loophole is to pay out a good chunk of the contract in signing bonuses upfront, which get rolled into the overall cap hit.  

[Doohickie]

You can structure the compensation however you want (within some limits) but in the end the cap hit is Total Compensation for the Whole Contract / Number of Years.  The cap hit for all the years of a contract is the same (even if that's not the way it's paid out).

Edited February 26, 2019 by Doohickie

[Taro T]

2 hours ago, Doohickie said:

You can structure the compensation however you want (within some limits) but in the end the cap hit is Total Compensation for the Whole Contract / Number of Years.  The cap hit for all the years of a contract is the same (even if that's not the way it's paid out).

Within some fairly strict limits.  Money paid outin any particular year can only go up or down so much based on the initial payouts.

And, yes, for the most part, the cap hit is the total anticipated contract payout divided by the length of the contract.

[Doohickie]

O'Reilly's contract is interesting.  AAV $7.5M, but his base salary is only $1M.  All the rest is signing bonuses, so he gets the bulk of his pay up front before the season even starts.  (That's why it was significant to move him prior to July 1 when his bonus was due- if not, it would have been the Sabres who paid him most of his money for this season.)

[Taro T]

14 minutes ago, Doohickie said:

O'Reilly's contract is interesting.  AAV $7.5M, but his base salary is only $1M.  All the rest is signing bonuses, so he gets the bulk of his pay up front before the season even starts.  (That's why it was significant to move him prior to July 1 when his bonus was due- if not, it would have been the Sabres who paid him most of his money for this season.)

But interestingly, the way the CBA is worded, though the Sabres would've been on the hook for that cash the Blues would've taken the cap hit.  (Signing bonuses & salary in a particular year are charged against the capin roughly 187th increments daily during the season.  (Typical season is 187 days long.))

If that's how the bonuses are being treated, and it appears they are, could see that being adjusted under the next CBA.

[bobs0108]

24 minutes ago, Doohickie said:

O'Reilly's contract is interesting.  AAV $7.5M, but his base salary is only $1M.  All the rest is signing bonuses, so he gets the bulk of his pay up front before the season even starts.  (That's why it was significant to move him prior to July 1 when his bonus was due- if not, it would have been the Sabres who paid him most of his money for this season.)

And if you get paid in bonus it takes your money out of that weird pot of money that the NHL collects and then redistributes after it converts all the teams caps. Players lose out since most teams pay to the cap or close to it and very few only pay to the floor. 

[Taro T]

5 minutes ago, bobs0108 said:

And if you get paid in bonus it takes your money out of that weird pot of money that the NHL collects and then redistributes after it converts all the teams caps. Players lose out since most teams pay to the cap or close to it and very few only pay to the floor. 

Not entirely.  It still gets the initial escrow payment withdrawn, but the league recalculates escrow each quarter based on how estimated revenues have matched up with actual revenues.  When the revenes are overestimated initially, such as when the players choose that weird cap escalator, then escrow payments (percentages) go up in later quarters.  The money already paid out by the player doesn't get additional money withheld though if at the end of the year enough money total wasn't withheld then the player(s) could owe money back to the league beyond just the escrow.

[LGR4GM]

4 hours ago, steveoath said:

Are contracts allowed to be front loaded? I thought CBA took that away.

No. You they limited it but didn't take it away. You can stack more of the money in the first 4 years than the last 4. 

The other to think of is this. Skinner can get 8yr at 8mil for 64mil from us, or he can get 7 years 9mil for 63million from someone else. We can give him 7mil in signing bonuses during the potential lockout year, another team might only do 4 or 5 mil. Food for thought. These are the details that will impact the price of the deal. Skinner is not as good as Stone, he will get less, the question is how much less? 

[PerreaultForever]

Skinner has cooled off a little and the team will probably be less motivated down the final stretch so he might lose a little market value if he waits.

If he wants to sign here at all I'd be surprised if his agent didn't get him to sign for peak value and term on March 1st. If he doesn't sign this week I think it is likely he does not want to be here   8 years 8 million per is more than fair for him and I doubt anyone would give him much, if any,  more over 7.   

[MattPie]

On 2/26/2019 at 3:08 PM, LGR4GM said:

No. You they limited it but didn't take it away. You can stack more of the money in the first 4 years than the last 4. 

The other to think of is this. Skinner can get 8yr at 8mil for 64mil from us, or he can get 7 years 9mil for 63million from someone else. We can give him 7mil in signing bonuses during the potential lockout year, another team might only do 4 or 5 mil. Food for thought. These are the details that will impact the price of the deal. Skinner is not as good as Stone, he will get less, the question is how much less? 

True, although in year 8, barring LITR injury or a complete nosedive, Skinner will sign somewhere for at least 1m. It's not a bad gamble to leave 1m on the table betting that you'll pick up an extra 2-3m in year 8.

[bob_sauve28]

On 2/27/2019 at 6:34 PM, PerreaultForever said:

Skinner has cooled off a little and the team will probably be less motivated down the final stretch so he might lose a little market value if he waits.

If he wants to sign here at all I'd be surprised if his agent didn't get him to sign for peak value and term on March 1st. If he doesn't sign this week I think it is likely he does not want to be here   8 years 8 million per is more than fair for him and I doubt anyone would give him much, if any,  more over 7.   

You would think if he wanted to stay he would have signed by now. I'm guessing he just leaves 

[PerreaultForever]

44 minutes ago, bob_sauve28 said:

You would think if he wanted to stay he would have signed by now. I'm guessing he just leaves 

Depressing thought but it is possible he's just been faking it all year and he never had any thought of signing here. Carolina gave him away pretty cheap so they had to know he wasn't going to sign there and maybe he just allowed this deal for a season close to home before going to a contender he always had his eye on. Dunno, still hope he loves it here and will sign.

If he doesn't we are hooped and it brings back that old idea that players don't want to play here. Depressing thought. 

[apuszczalowski]

I don't think he has a problem re-signing here, but he isn't going to do it for cheap. Because he was allowed to continue playing out the season and had the year he did, and the Sabres having issues scoring, he now has them over a barrel. His agent knows Botterill has no choice but to pay up for his client, or go overpay in the FA market for someone to replace him. Skinner will have plenty of places that will pay him plenty if he tests the market and can make up that extra year the Sabres can give him in other ways.

Botterill wanted to be 'Methodically & careful' to not negotiate an extension earlier, and this is what can happen when you do.......

[Sidc3000]

I'm not a numbers guy and don't pay attention to teams cap space.   What playoff bound teams would have the cap space and need a winger like Skinner to upgrade in the off season???

 

 

Oh, sorry I'm usually a forum stalker and not a poster....lol

Edited March 3, 2019 by Sidc3000

[dudacek]

Botterill is messed up if Skinner gets $9 million. That’s franchise player money.

Kane and Van Reimsdyk are decent comparables and signed last summer for $7.

Ovechkin is highest paid LW and he makes $9.5. Zach Parise is the next highest paid LW in the league at $7.5. Marchand only makes $6.1. On the right side you have Patrick Kane at $10.5, then Perry, Voracek and Kessel at $8-8.5.

And now there is the Stone deal.

[dudacek]

9 minutes ago, Sidc3000 said:

I'm not a numbers guy and don't pay attention to teams cap space.   What playoff bound teams would have the cap space and need a winger like Skinner to upgrade in the off season???

 

 

Oh, sorry I'm usually a forum stalker and not a poster....lol

There are more than a few that can afford him, but I’m not sure many of those are going to be offering a number Buffalo wouldn’t match. See above. You never know what GMs are prepared to do in a UFA situation, but based on his career, $8 million is probably an overpayment and I think Buffalo will pay him that.

[Sidc3000]

2 minutes ago, dudacek said:

There are more than a few that can afford him, but I’m not sure many of those are going to be offering a number Buffalo wouldn’t match. See above. You never know what GMs are prepared to do in a UFA situation, but based on his career, $8 million is probably an overpayment and I think Buffalo will pay him that.

So the biggest question will be, does he want a big pay check and be on team that may or may not go anywhere in the next 8 years or does he take a slightly low paycheck and possibly go to a team that is already heading in the right direction......decision decisions?

[TrueBlueGED]

1 hour ago, dudacek said:

Botterill is messed up if Skinner gets $9 million. That’s franchise player money.

Kane and Van Reimsdyk are decent comparables and signed last summer for $7.

Ovechkin is highest paid LW and he makes $9.5. Zach Parise is the next highest paid LW in the league at $7.5. Marchand only makes $6.1. On the right side you have Patrick Kane at $10.5, then Perry, Voracek and Kessel at $8-8.5.

And now there is the Stone deal.

Kane, JVR, and Stone are the relevant AAV comparable. The others are too far back and you'd have to go percent of cap at time of signing. 

Anyway, I agree that Skinner really isn't a $9 million player. I think he's better than Kane and JVR, but nowhere near Stone. $8M sounds pretty fair to me. 

[kas23]

3 hours ago, PerreaultForever said:

Depressing thought but it is possible he's just been faking it all year and he never had any thought of signing here. Carolina gave him away pretty cheap so they had to know he wasn't going to sign there and maybe he just allowed this deal for a season close to home before going to a contender he always had his eye on. Dunno, still hope he loves it here and will sign.

If he doesn't we are hooped and it brings back that old idea that players don't want to play here. Depressing thought. 

Doubt it. If he was 100% sure of not signing here, he would’ve likely been shipped out at the deadline, even if it was for an extra heavy bag of pucks. 

[Saudi Arabia Rob]

On 2/26/2019 at 12:10 AM, Broken Ankles said:

He’s lost all his leverage.   Skinner holds all the cards.   His agent knows JB can not afford to lose him.  He has seen what Stone was extended for in Vegas.  I think it’s $9.1m/8 years or he tests.  

I think he may be slight less than $9 million, but pretty darn close.