GDT - Devils @ Sabres, 7:00pm MSG, 1/8/2019

[SabresBaltimore]

Man after that early NJ goal I was annoyed, but otherwise it was a great effort all around. We had much more rounded scoring too.

When Eichel comes back, we have to put him and Skinner back together though right? Not just for the goal scoring they bring, but to keep Skinner happy/wanting to re-sign with the team too.

 

8 hours ago, Andrew Amerk said:

Tage - Eichel - Skins

Samson - ERod - Sheary

? - Mitts - C.J. 

? - Zemgus - Larry 

You have Okposo, Pommers, and Vlad. Who gets scratched? 

 

This seems like a good start. I worry about that second line though. I'm not sure Samson can anchor his own line. He seemed noticeable last night, but without Eichel or Skinner he still got no points. Of course it's just 1 game. However if you look at his point production before being added to the top line it was garbage. I worry it will garbage again.

 

Maybe Erod can fix that. I don't recall if they played together earlier this season. I don't really think Erod is a top 6 guy though. He's a bottom 6 guy who can play top 6 minutes in a pinch/during injuries. He has great energy/speed, but very little finish most nights. Of course I say that after that pretty fake shot/pass to Mccabe for the shorty last night. But more often than not it's a burst of speed leading to a scoring chance that falls short.

I think others have said we'd have to send Smith back down though, so we can't keep him on the roster with Eichel back too? That's a bummer because right now I'd play him over your 3 leftovers for sure.

Assuming that's right my lines would be:

Tage - Eichel - Skins

Samson - ERod - Sheary

OK - Mitts - Sobotka

Pommers - Zemgus - Larson

 

Looking ahead to next season, I still wouldn't mind keeping Pommers if we can sign him for cheap, but it not I won't be upset if we don't/he retires. I want to get rid of Sheary, OK, Sobotka.

 

I doubt we're going to get anyone to take Okposo's contract though, so we're probably stuck hoping he finds his game again., so

Sheary has another year on his contract. 3m cap hit isn't awful, but for his production so far it is. I'd rather have another young guy on an ELC or something.

Sobotka is even worse at 3.5m. Move Smith up for next year in his place.

 

[Huckleberry]

I have no problem with Samson on 2nd line, but put him with casey not Erod.

Didn't see the game last night, but read Samson with Erod/Sheary, he'll have to score himself.

Skinner - Eichel - Thomspon

Smith - Mittelstadt - Reinhart

Girgensons - Larsson - Okposo

Erod - Sobotka - Pominville

 

[SabresBaltimore]

1 minute ago, Huckleberry said:

I have no problem with Samson on 2nd line, but put him with casey not Erod.

Didn't see the game last night, but read Samson with Erod/Sheary, he'll have to score himself.

Skinner - Eichel - Thomspon

Smith - Mittelstadt - Reinhart

Girgensons - Larsson - Okposo

Erod - Sobotka - Pominville

 

 

Mitts should be our #2 guy eventually, but this season he's not that. Personally, I think he's been asked to do too much too soon. If we were a deeper team I'd have liked to see him start the year in Rochester with big minutes and earn a callup rather than starting in Buffalo. Maybe playing with Reinhardt as a catalyst, he can show more of what we saw last night though. I think he should be playing as our #3 guy though.

I think the plan had been for Berglund to be our #2 and Mitts #3, but that didn't work out either.

 

Really Reinhardt should be playing as our #2 center, but I don't see that working out either. He's shown he's more of a support guy than someone who can carry a line to me. That keeps him on the wing along side someone who can make plays. If not Eichel and Skinner, who on this team would that be?

[thewookie1]

Reinhart can support his own line, but can't really play center. Tonight showed how he seems to work well for and with Erod and Sheary. He doesn't have the sheer foot speed to be an elite center man but has the vision and passing ability of one. Erod's type of player works all the better with him since where he lacks in skill he makes up in tenacity and speed thus complimenting Reinhart. Essentially Reinhart on RW with an Erod type player creates a solid line since between them both they make up a good pairing although oddly placed to the norm.  

[Doohickie]

11 minutes ago, thewookie1 said:

Erod's type of player works all the better with him since where he lacks in skill

I don't think he's the hack many portray him to be.  He set up a goal a beautiful pass and made an even better pass that Sobotka whiffed on.

[SabresBaltimore]

12 minutes ago, Doohickie said:

I don't think he's the hack many portray him to be.  He set up a goal a beautiful pass and made an even better pass that Sobotka whiffed on.

I certainly don't think ERod is a hack. I think he's essential part of the team. I don't think he's good enough to be a permanent fixture on the top 6 though. You need guys like him in your bottom 6 though.

[Taro T]

1 hour ago, SabresBaltimore said:

Man after that early NJ goal I was annoyed, but otherwise it was a great effort all around. We had much more rounded scoring too.

When Eichel comes back, we have to put him and Skinner back together though right? Not just for the goal scoring they bring, but to keep Skinner happy/wanting to re-sign with the team too.

 

 

This seems like a good start. I worry about that second line though. I'm not sure Samson can anchor his own line. He seemed noticeable last night, but without Eichel or Skinner he still got no points. Of course it's just 1 game. However if you look at his point production before being added to the top line it was garbage. I worry it will garbage again.

 

Maybe Erod can fix that. I don't recall if they played together earlier this season. I don't really think Erod is a top 6 guy though. He's a bottom 6 guy who can play top 6 minutes in a pinch/during injuries. He has great energy/speed, but very little finish most nights. Of course I say that after that pretty fake shot/pass to Mccabe for the shorty last night. But more often than not it's a burst of speed leading to a scoring chance that falls short.

I think others have said we'd have to send Smith back down though, so we can't keep him on the roster with Eichel back too? That's a bummer because right now I'd play him over your 3 leftovers for sure.

Assuming that's right my lines would be:

Tage - Eichel - Skins

Samson - ERod - Sheary

OK - Mitts - Sobotka

Pommers - Zemgus - Larson

 

Looking ahead to next season, I still wouldn't mind keeping Pommers if we can sign him for cheap, but it not I won't be upset if we don't/he retires. I want to get rid of Sheary, OK, Sobotka.

 

I doubt we're going to get anyone to take Okposo's contract though, so we're probably stuck hoping he finds his game again., so

Sheary has another year on his contract. 3m cap hit isn't awful, but for his production so far it is. I'd rather have another young guy on an ELC or something.

Sobotka is even worse at 3.5m. Move Smith up for next year in his place.

 

While there is the concern about whether Skinner would still want to re-sign with Buffalo if he's separated from Eichel, he seems to be a smart guy & I expect he would understand the reason for the split should it happen.  The way Housley moves stuff around, doubt it would be for more than a handful of games anyway.  And Skinner was scoring before getti g reunited with Eichel, just not at nearly a goal per game.  Keep him scoring at a 35 goal pace on his own line with Sheary scoring at a 25 goal pace & they're ahead of where they were at 52 & 4. ;)

Not sure about why we are now enamored with Rodrigues and Reinhart.  At least 2 scoring chances that Reinhart set up to Evan died without even a shot.  Sheary is still snakebit, but he at least got good shots off.  And Sheary seems to me to be the candidate most likely to pick his game up and finish should he be placed with Eichel & Reinhart.  Keep Eichel with Reinhart & should THE line get split up, give Sheary 1st dibs.

Don't send Smith down.  He's displaying chemistry, via an extremely small sample set, with Larsson and Okposo.  If a player move has to be made, there are 3+ options that are better: 1 IR Scandella - really hoping it's an injury he's battling through that's been causing him to be a shell of his 2nd 1/2 self; 2 send Elie down though Botterill seems to hate to risk assets for nothing; 3 send Pominville down.  Except for the Wild game's final 5 minutes he has exactly 1 assist since the 2-9 game (and nearly 6 full games lined up next to Eichel & Skinner in that span).  Or get Jason to agree that old age is a nagging injury & IR him. Or send Hunwick down.

And, how useful would Rodrigues be getting to play the other team's weakest competition typically skating alongside Mittelstadt & Girgensons?  Now THAT could truly be the best 4th line (by ice time) by a wide margin.

[inkman]

1 hour ago, Weave said:

Really liked the pace in the first two periods. And really liked TTs game.

Sam did a nice job playing set up guy from the wing.  That might be a good role for him.

Casey...... every once in awhile the kid shows some real flash.  I hope it comes together soon.  He’s hot the skills.

Ill say it, Sobotka looked OK moved up in the lineup.

As much as I don't enjoy Vlad the impaler of pucks, he looked passable last night. 

[...]

So I was wondering to myself after the game what is it that was different about last night's effort versus the effort in Boston.  We had Zegmus and Hutton, I think those were the only roster changes.  Different look to some of the lines.

What I did notice early on, and I noted it by saying in this thread something like "mid-season road game for NJ", was that NJ was not hitting the Sabres.  The difference in the physical game between Boston and NJ is very stark - Boston brings the heavy.  Something I noticed lately, after the 10 game streak, is that when a team brings the heavy against the Sabres - the forwards crumble.  

Our D can handle it, I think, because we don't get blown-out, but our forwards can't. That has to be "the book" on this team and I think last night's game was a pretty good test against that.

Edited January 9, 2019 by ...

[LGR4GM]

7 hours ago, JJFIVEOH said:

Eichel needs to be with that line. At this point it's all we have. Ride it out until we get some secondary scoring. 

We tried the "ride it out" plan and dropped like a stone down the rankings. Skinner can score on his own. Split them up. 

Skinner - Erod/Mitts/Sobotka - Thompson

Smith - Eichel - Reinhart/Thompson

Sheary - Leftovers - Okposo

Zegmus - Larsson - Pommers

[That Aud Smell]

5 minutes ago, ... said:

So I was wondering to myself after the game what is it that was different about last night's effort versus the effort in Boston. 

Good post.

Credit to the Sabres for winning a game that was there for the taking -- for taking the play to the Devils.

That said: I cannot recall the last time I saw a Sabres game in-person where I repeatedly commented -- out loud -- how pathetic and hapless the other team was in their d-zone. There were sequences where the Devils looked like the Keystone Cops in their own zone.

[Ross Rhea]

Finally nice to see an opposing goalie not stand on his head vs the Sabres.

[LGR4GM]

1 hour ago, SabresBaltimore said:

Man after that early NJ goal I was annoyed, but otherwise it was a great effort all around. We had much more rounded scoring too.

When Eichel comes back, we have to put him and Skinner back together though right? Not just for the goal scoring they bring, but to keep Skinner happy/wanting to re-sign with the team too.

 

 

This seems like a good start. I worry about that second line though. I'm not sure Samson can anchor his own line. He seemed noticeable last night, but without Eichel or Skinner he still got no points. Of course it's just 1 game. However if you look at his point production before being added to the top line it was garbage. I worry it will garbage again.

Reinhart started slow but was producing prior to moving to the top line. He had 12 points in the first 19 games if I am correct and I believe it was in game 19 or 20 that he was moved to the top line. That projects out to 52 point on the season. One of the reasons he produces more there is because he is feeding those nice passes to players that don't fan on wide open nets (Sobotka) and players who can make 1 move to get a shot. 

Reinhart has been on the ice for 18 goals at 5v5 with Skinner and Eichel. Away from them at 5v5 he has been on the ice for 9 goals. The 9 goals have come with almost exactly 100 less minutes of 5v5 ice time. His Corsi is better away from Jeff and Jack by 2%. 

If I do all TOI in all situations Reinhart has been on the ice for 13 goals for without JS and JE and with JS and JE he has been there for 31 goals scored. The catch however is that we are talking about 200minutes for 13 and 367 for 31. Or 3.9goals per 60 away and 5.1goals per 60 with. 

Yes Reinhart produces better with Eichel and Skinner but his production away from them is far from garbage. Interestingly, w/out Reinhart, Jack and Jeff's goals per 60 goes up to 6.95 with about 207minutes of ice time. Of course some of that has to do with powerplay stuff. 

Just something to think about. I wonder if Reinhart will always start a little slow. Looking at his box scores for the first 19 games, He has 2 stretches in the first 13 games where he goes 3 games without a point. 

[nfreeman]

Can anyone point me to the Bogo nasty play that others have referred to upthread?  I got home late last night and only watched the 2nd period (on my son's recommendation).  If someone could let me know approximately when it occurred, I'll go back and check it out.  Thanks.

[Wyldnwoody44]

That was fun, I watched it last night after I was home, the way they've been playing, being able to FF was a nice ability, I didn't need that last evening. 

 

They just looked good, though NJ did keep pressure on in our end for good chunks, we did the same. 

I think TT is starting to put it together a little more, some more accuracy and that shot could be deadly, but at the very least, it's hard enough that it should create rebounds. 

Sheary, idk, I just haven't been a fan, I think he tries hard, but, he's small and doesn't finish, we already have Erod, we don't need both. 

Hutton played well, the post saved his bacon a few times and his rebounds were a bit sloppy, but did well enough. 

Glad to take 2 points against a team we should have

[LGR4GM]

2 hours ago, SabresBaltimore said:

Maybe Erod can fix that. I don't recall if they played together earlier this season. I don't really think Erod is a top 6 guy though. He's a bottom 6 guy who can play top 6 minutes in a pinch/during injuries. He has great energy/speed, but very little finish most nights. Of course I say that after that pretty fake shot/pass to Mccabe for the shorty last night. But more often than not it's a burst of speed leading to a scoring chance that falls short.

Sam and Erod have spent almost exactly 100minutes of ice time together this season. 73minutes of that have been at 5v5. In that 5v5 time they have managed 5 goals for and 4 against. That's roughly 4.1goals per 60. 

[Wyldnwoody44]

3 minutes ago, nfreeman said:

Can anyone point me to the Bogo nasty play that others have referred to upthread?  I got home late last night and only watched the 2nd period (on my son's recommendation).  If someone could let me know approximately when it occurred, I'll go back and check it out.  Thanks.

Mid to late 3rd, it was the only PP we had 

[LGR4GM]

3 minutes ago, nfreeman said:

Can anyone point me to the Bogo nasty play that others have referred to upthread?  I got home late last night and only watched the 2nd period (on my son's recommendation).  If someone could let me know approximately when it occurred, I'll go back and check it out.  Thanks.

13:05 of the 3rd. That is when Nosen took the penalty. 

[nfreeman]

Thanks @Wyldnwoody44 and @LGR4GM.

[Samson's Flow]

11 hours ago, Taro T said:

They could be.  Dahlin WILL be 1/2 of that pairing.  I'd guess that he ends up paired up with McCabe when he is on that pairing because he's earned it.  But Pilut could be that partner.  Waaaay too soon to tell.  They both will grow from where they are - Rasmus significantly.

But in 2 minutes together the past 2 games they've given up a goal, a breakaway, and had Ray convinced that Drew "the Staph Infection" Stafford had roofed one.  That pairing is nearly as scary as Meszaros-Benoit.

A Messy balls sighting!

11 hours ago, inkman said:

Messy Balls!!

Damn.

[Samson's Flow]

12 hours ago, Scottysabres said:

Pilut looked really good tonight.

The Legend of Skinner Grows...……….for how much and how long?

Reinharts CF 77% topped all players.

Botterill's interview revealed nothing we didn't already know. 

Beer night ?

Give the man his own line. Challenging him to be the leader of his line instead of a supporting player may bring out the best in Samson. It did tonight (despite a 0 point game, he was the catalyst for a lot of the scoring chances for his line).

[Samson's Flow]

2 hours ago, thewookie1 said:

Reinhart can support his own line, but can't really play center. Tonight showed how he seems to work well for and with Erod and Sheary. He doesn't have the sheer foot speed to be an elite center man but has the vision and passing ability of one. Erod's type of player works all the better with him since where he lacks in skill he makes up in tenacity and speed thus complimenting Reinhart. Essentially Reinhart on RW with an Erod type player creates a solid line since between them both they make up a good pairing although oddly placed to the norm.  

I think he can be the leader of his line, but I agree that he needs a center/wing hybrid role where he can switch roles with another player. ERod plays a similar center/wing hybrid and as a result they work well together. Plus I see far more offensive upside in ERod than others do, so I think he can raise up that line rather than drag it down.

I think Sam needs two high energy skaters to create movement and disrupt the defense. I want more of that behind the net backdoor pass from Sam to ERod that was set up by Sheary winning the race in the corner.

[Samson's Flow]

1 hour ago, LGR4GM said:

Sam and Erod have spent almost exactly 100minutes of ice time together this season. 73minutes of that have been at 5v5. In that 5v5 time they have managed 5 goals for and 4 against. That's roughly 4.1goals per 60. 

thats good right?

[LGR4GM]

20 minutes ago, Samson's Flow said:

thats good right?

Yes. If I did the math correctly they should give you about 1 goal a game provided they are getting 15minutes of ice time. 

[Weave]

3 hours ago, ... said:

So I was wondering to myself after the game what is it that was different about last night's effort versus the effort in Boston.  We had Zegmus and Hutton, I think those were the only roster changes.  Different look to some of the lines.

What I did notice early on, and I noted it by saying in this thread something like "mid-season road game for NJ", was that NJ was not hitting the Sabres.  The difference in the physical game between Boston and NJ is very stark - Boston brings the heavy.  Something I noticed lately, after the 10 game streak, is that when a team brings the heavy against the Sabres - the forwards crumble.  

Our D can handle it, I think, because we don't get blown-out, but our forwards can't. That has to be "the book" on this team and I think last night's game was a pretty good test against that.

Great observation.